Chapter 5: The nightmare begins

07:28am, 24 July

The Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, swept into the room to chair the meeting of the emergency COBRA committee. The committee's name, while sounding impressive, was quite simply derived from the name of the room in which it met. The room was the Cabinet Office, Briefing Room, A - so COBRA. The room itself was actually quite Spartan, the tables and chairs old, battered and stained and the large clocks that showed the time in different places around the world cheap, but functional. A bank of screens recessed into one wall gave the committee the ability to videoconference with others around the world.

The membership of COBRA wasn't fixed, instead, sensibly, it changed depending on what the emergency that presented itself was. Deciding who should be present was largely down to the civil servant who was the Permanent Secretary of the Cabinet Office. Today, apart from the Prime Minister and the civil servants, the room contained the head of MI5, the head of the armed forces, the Secretaries of State for the Home Office and the Department for the Environment, Fisheries and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), the Government's Chief Scientific Officer (CSO) and Chief Veterinary Officer (CVO). Looking down on the tables from one of the videoconference screens was Professor Ian Pinnington, the leading microbiologist in the UK.

"Ladies and gentlemen, my thanks for making the meeting at such short notice. Shall we get right down to business?" said the Prime Minister, the Scottish accent clear in his deep voice.

It was the Chief Scientific Officer, Sir Anthony Prior, who spoke next.

"Prime Minister, we have begun to receive reports of some dead birds being found. The reports are not confined to one location as we would normally expect, but rather they're coming in from a number of parts of the country."

"And the cause of death, Anthony?" the Prime Minister asked.

"As yet unknown Prime Minister, but we suspect bird flu. Even as we speak our laboratories in Scotland, the Midlands and here in London are conducting tests," the CSO responded.

"If I might interrupt, Prime Minister?" came a voice from the videoconference screen.

Ian Pinnington didn't wait for permission, but instead began to voice his expert opinion like a man who was used to being listened to.

"The chances of bird flu appearing in a number of locations at once is highly unlikely, in fact I would say it's all but impossible for something like that to happen naturally. If this is indeed bird flu then the labs must check the strain to see whether it's the same in each location. If it is, then I'm afraid this outbreak may well have been triggered by someone deliberately."

"Thank you Ian. Anthony, I'll leave it in your capable hands to see the tests are completed as quickly as possible and the results compared just as Ian suggests. Now, what actions do we need to take?" asked the Prime Minister.

To an outsider it might have appeared strange that this question was directed at the civil servants rather than any of the Secretaries of State or other very senior and expert people in the room.

"I would normally suggest we treat this as we have other outbreaks of bird flu and the recent foot and mouth incidents," said the Permanent Secretary, " a full ban on the movement of all livestock, exclusion zones in place around the worst affected areas and an immediate cull of any birds within the same areas.

"But, as the affected areas include the centres of some of our largest cities, that's just not feasible Prime Minister. I'm afraid there is little we can do by way of preventative measures and we're left with doing what we can to avoid large-scale panic. I think we need to play down the size of the issue and use some smoke and mirrors to deflect attention away from the worst of it.

"I advise that we throw up some very visible exclusion zones and conduct some culling - all for the benefit of our friends in the media. That will give the public at large something to focus on and reassure them that their government is taking measures and is in control. While this might sound dishonest, I think such an approach is completely justified to avoid massive civil unrest.

"Your Press Secretary has prepared these 'lines to take' for use with the media, Prime Minister. A media briefing has been scheduled for ten minutes time downstairs," finished the Permanent Secretary, Sir John Cash, as he handed round copies of the agreed statement that would be shared with the media.

"Thank you John. I agree, the last thing we need is mass panic. Now, is there any need to draft in additional resources to help clean up the dead birds as quickly as possible? What about our emergency contingency plans, is there anything I should be invoking?" asked the Prime Minister.

"I think the environmental officers from the various councils should be able to cope, Prime Minister. No need to call in the army just yet," joked the Home Office Secretary of State. "There are no specific emergency plans to cover this. While it will make a big dent in the farming industry and therefore the economy it's still only some birds and animals after all."

"Okay, I want to know as soon as the results of the tests come back and I need to be kept informed if the situation worsens. Derek, check my diary and cancel any non urgent appointments for the next two days," ordered the Prime Minister, looking at his own Private Secretary. "Ladies and Gentlemen, you all have a copy of the press statement, please remain on message and don't ad lib. Okay, let's go meet the press."

Gordon Brown was a very experienced politician and he exuded an air of calm as he took questions from the assembled media. Cameras from all the main news channels were there, as were the journalists from the print media. The Prime Minister stuck to the lines given to him by the civil servants, playing down the scale of the outbreak, advising that the cause was as yet still not confirmed and reassuring everyone that all necessary measures were already being taken to contain the problem.

"Prime Minister, there has been speculation that this is an outbreak of bird flu. Can you comment sir?" asked the reporter from Sky News.

"As you say Brian, that is merely speculation at this time. Can I also remind you that bird flu has not progressed to the point where it can infect humans? Let's get that on the record before any one starts to get worried shall we?" replied the Prime Minster, smiling.

"Prime Minister, are we likely to see any culling?" asked the BBC reporter.

"Thank you George, there will be some culling in those few areas we believe are the source of this outbreak. I have also called for an immediate ban on all movements of livestock around the country. I would emphasise however, that these are purely precautionary measures at this stage and sensible to ensure this doesn't spread."

The press conference carried on for ten more minutes before the Prime Minister judged that he had given them enough. He thanked them for their time and left the room briskly, his Private Secretary and protective detail at his heels as he made for his official car.

Shafiq was rudely shaken awake by one of her team members. She looked at the clock beside the bed and saw that it was not yet eight o'clock. She looked at her companion for an explanation.

"It has begun," he said simply.

Shafiq threw the bedclothes off and quickly pulled on her jeans and a fleece before darting through to the sitting room of the safe house. The TV was tuned to Sky News and the banner that scrolled across the bottom of the screen read Breaking News: suspected bird flu outbreak. She threw herself down on the sofa and concentrated on what the reporter in the studio was saying.

"Now to breaking news. Reports are coming in of a number of suspected cases of bird flu across the country. Sky News understands there has been a meeting of the emergency COBRA committee this morning to discuss the situation. That meeting has broken up in just the last few minutes. We can cross now to our reporter on the scene in Whitehall, Brian Callaghan.

"Brian, what can you tell us?"

The screen changed to show a man standing outside the Cabinet Office building on Whitehall, a large microphone in his hand. The legend at the bottom of the screen read Sky News: Whitehall, Reporter Brian Callaghan.

"Andrew, I can tell you that a number of dead birds have been found in locations around the country. As yet the cause of their death is not known and scientists from the Department of the Environment, Fisheries and Rural Affairs are conducting tests. I suspect we are going to see some large scale culling of birds throughout the day at the sites where these outbreaks are believed to have started.

"A ban on the movement of all livestock throughout the country has already been put in place and today is another bleak one for Britain's farming communities. A few moments ago I asked the Prime Minister about the measures the government were putting in place. Here's what he said."

The screen changed again, this time to show the Prime Minister responding to questions at the press conference. Shafiq was not surprised at the way the hated UK Prime Minister was trying to play down what was happening, but she frowned in anger anyway. Her frown turned into a grim smile as he boldly went on the record to state that bird flu couldn't spread to humans.

"Just give it a few days and I think you'll be proven wrong infidel!" she thought to herself.

The news report had moved on and was now showing footage from a helicopter over a site that was described as being in the West Midlands. On the ground were police and other vehicles and the camera picked out the plastic tape that was being used to warn the public not to enter the area. Numerous figures could be seen in white jump suits that had hoods covering their heads and white breathing masks covered their mouths and noses. A bowser was parked up and some form of chemical or detergent was being sprayed on anything that moved, particularly the wheels of vehicles.

Over the top of the footage a reporter was explaining that this was one of the sites suspected of being a source of whatever was killing the bird population. As the picture came back to the presenter in the studio and moved on to another news item, Shafiq cursed at the TV. She knew this remote site had nothing to do with the outbreak, but represented more lies from the British government as they tried to fool their own citizens.

At the MacLaren farm, the family was also gathered round the TV, watching BBC News 24. The outbreak had had an immediate effect on the farm as all livestock movement had been suspended. It was likely that the European Union would already be processing a ban on all British livestock and meat products crossing the channel to mainland Europe and that would hit James MacLaren's income from the farm hard.