Chapter 9: Take Your Profits and Run

June 9, 1984, Chicago, Illinois

"How was the party?" Bianca asked when I arrived home.

"About what I expected," I replied. "I sat in the kitchen with the Mac and worked on my papers or read. Katy's sister, Lexi, and one of her friends flirted lightly, but that was it. The one girl who really interested me was quiet and shy."

"Oriental?" Bianca asked with a smirk.

"Nope! Middle Eastern! She's from Syria and has gorgeous olive skin and long black hair."

Bianca laughed, "You do mostly like girls who aren't pasty white like Teri!"

"But those freckles!" I declared.

"So, did the little ones get up to any hanky-panky?"

"A pair of couples disappeared to the basement for a time, but otherwise, it was mostly hanging out in the backyard, listening to music, and chilling without parents watching or cops rousting them for drinking beer at eighteen. Totally well behaved, and Lexi and three friends stayed after to help clean up, not that they made much of a mess."

"Losing your touch?" Bianca teased.

"Not at all! I'm positive Lexi and her friend Becky would have been happy to play, but I made a point of giving them all their space, which was expressly what Katy said they wanted."

"What was the girl's name?"

"Gamila Khaled. And no, I don't have her number or anything like that!"

Bianca laughed, "You think I'd encourage you to go for it?"

"You're a troublemaker that way," I declared. "But I don't do anything I don't want to do, so, in the end, it's all on me."

"In all seriousness, you aren't upset or bothered, are you?"

"No. The only thing that bothers me, and that might even be too strong a word, is girls who simply assume I'll fuck them. I think that reaction on my part is mostly because of my arguments with Marcia and her assumption that I'd fuck her even after I'd made it clear we didn't click."

"Have you heard anything from her?"

"No, and not from Congressman Hayes, either. My options there are basically a series of large campaign contributions or washing my hands of the whole thing. Washing my hands is the best option, as I see it. I still have Gary, who works for Senator Dixon, and I'm developing contacts in other industries and locations. Honestly, local politicians don't help much. If I could find someone on the way up who is going to run for Congress, that would be more useful."

"What about charitable giving?"

"That's on my agenda for next year. I want to take some time to research various organizations and pick the ones that do the best job of helping people. I'm not interested in political advocacy groups, which is the focus of the Foundation Jeri's mom runs."

"With buying the new car, do you still plan to buy the pool table?"

"Yes. The insurance payment, while it didn't even come close to covering the cost of the new car, means I can still buy the pool table. And that will basically complete the spending on decorating the condo, except for art."

"Did you discuss with Meg what we're doing next Saturday?"

"No. I assumed we'd go to dinner and then see a movie, possibly Ghostbusters or Gremlins."

"I'd pick Ghostbusters," Bianca said. "Not that I'd be upset about Gremlins."

"That would be my preference as well. Any suggestions for dinner?"

"The Berghoff? It's not dressy, but the food is good, and their root beer is out of this world."

"That sounds good."

"You're gone just one night for California, right?"

"Yes, because with the Spurgeon jet, I don't have to worry about flight schedules or missing a flight. We should get back sometime around 5:00pm Chicago time."

"Teri is missing another night?"

"It just worked out that way," I replied. "I already spoke to her, and she and I are going out on Tuesday instead. Jack and Kristy will do their own thing on Friday, and Taya will meet me here, and she and I will go out. And I have to find time to do homework, too."

"I'm not sure you should have taken two classes over the Summer."

"Neither am I, but what's done is done, and getting these out of the way was important so that I can start the independent study as soon as possible. If that goes well, I'll have a BA in business in just over two years. It's not critical for work, but I want to have the degree because it works, more or less, like a checkbox for so many people. I've been asked a number of times, and it'll be easier to just say 'yes' to those questions."

I heard Sofía stir over the intercom, so I went upstairs to get her. I changed her diaper, then brought her downstairs so Bianca could feed her. While Sofía was nursing, I called Krissy in Oregon. We had a brief chat, and then I sat down with Bianca. After Sofía finished eating, I held her until she fell asleep, then Bianca and I took her upstairs. After Sofía was in her crib, Bianca and I went to Bianca's room so we could sleep together.

June 11, 1984, Chicago, Illinois

Sunday had been quiet, and I'd mostly spent it with Bianca and Sofía, though I had taken time out to call my mom. As was typical for a Sunday night, CeCi had slept with me but then gone to her bed when my alarm had gone off at 5:45am. I showered, put on shorts and a T-shirt, and went downstairs to start making breakfast. About five minutes after I'd started, Chelsea let herself in, bringing the Chicago Tribune and Wall Street Journal in with her.

"Good morning," I said.

"Good morning!" she replied, putting the newspapers on the breakfast bar. "Anything special for today?"

"Sofía has a visit with the pediatrician, but that's after Jessica arrives. There's nothing else of which I'm aware."

"Then I'm going to go check on Sofía."

Chelsea went upstairs, and I completed making my breakfast. I sat down at the breakfast bar to eat. I checked the headlines in the Wall Street Journal, then read the Trib while I ate. There wasn't anything major going on in the world, and nothing I read would have any major impact on the stock market or currencies.

The most important question was what the Fed would do at its meeting on the 26th. Our consensus was another half-point hike, though I felt a quarter-point was a slightly better bet, given how strongly President Reagan was lobbying Fed Chairman Volcker. Despite my belief, our reports showed our consensus — a hike from 12.5% to 13%, followed by significant cuts before the end of the year.

That was a serious problem for Reagan, and the economy was one area where he was weak, though his campaign message was much stronger than Mondale's. The main problem Mondale had was promising tax increases, which never played well, while Reagan continued to point to how much better things were than when Mondale had been Carter's Vice President. All in all, I felt Reagan would win, but not handily. That said, a lot could change before November, and the debates were in the offing.

I finished my breakfast, then went upstairs to dress for work. Just under ten minutes later, I was back downstairs and was able to kiss my daughter 'goodbye' before heading to the office. I completed my usual routine of speaking to Rich and making a pot of coffee, then went to my desk to begin working on the daily analyst report.

I reviewed the Friday afternoon political analysis Tony had prepared, which provided state-by-state projections. Based on formulas he'd worked out with Steve Smith, there was a percentage chance for each state as to which candidate would win. A quick review showed Reagan with an electoral college advantage that was hidden by the national polling numbers.

Some states, no matter how many votes Mondale received, would never go for him — California and most of the West, along with the South. There were very few with the opposite situation — where Reagan had little chance of winning — Minnesota and DC, which, while not a state, had been granted three votes in the Electoral College. Those state-by-state analyses showed that the headline numbers showing Mondale ahead in the irrelevant Popular Vote were meaningless.

Fundamentally, it was Reagan's election to lose, and despite those national polling numbers, the model Tony and Steve had developed gave Reagan a 60% chance of winning the Electoral College. Of course, as I had noted earlier, it was still early, and the debates could well swing the election, as could some major turn of economic events. That was clearly driving Reagan's jawboning of Fed Chairman Volcker to bring down interest rates.

Volcker seemed immune to that political pressure and was reacting to a combination of inflation and what was, from his perspective, an overheating economy, which put upward pressure on the money supply, which drove headline consumer inflation numbers. Ultimately, from a Spurgeon Capital perspective, upward pressure on interest rates meant likely declines in the stock market, as capital fled to Treasury instruments, which provided secure returns at historically high rates, even compared to the overall stock market.

Globally, the larger question was what would happen in the Soviet Union. I had no crystal ball, nor did I have polling numbers, nor did I have any true insight into what was happening. As a number of sources made clear, Kremlinology was a black art, and the West mostly got it wrong. The best guesses had Acting Second Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, as the favorite to succeed Konstantin Chernenko. That said, he had been tipped as the favorite to succeed Yuri Andropov, and that had not happened, proving that Western Kremlinology had failed.