Forum: Story Discussion and Feedback

2. A story set in a world where civilization collapsed and is on the way to recovery. Typically with those stories, you only see a tiny fragment of the rebuilding process and that isn't the central theme of the story.

The truth is that after a full on collapse with total loss of modern infrastructure, it would take decades, possibly several generations to build even a small city-state. That just doesn't fit in a novel/movie format.

Eh, I'd disagree on that. Getting back to a 19th Century level of tech wouldn't be too hard. So long as someone with at least a basic level understanding of Engineering and/or Physics is among the survivors. Someone with knowledge of chemistry and/or metallurgy would be an even bigger plus in that regard. The matter that a substantial number of the other survivors would have a general idea of what they're trying to do doesn't hurt either. Even if they're useless for helping figure out the specifics.

It isn't like finding refined metals would be particularly difficult in such a setting. Then it's just a matter of figuring out how to blacksmith things again. Of which, the most important thing at that point is either finding or building a forge that you can use. (Which is where the Engineer would come in handy)

At that point, you can start building tools(which you can't scavenge for some reason?), and work back towards at least having steam engines of certain varieties being put into service. Although trying to build an actual (serviceable) locomotive from scrap will probably take a few years of dedicated effort. I strongly doubt it would take a group of survivors decades to work back to that point unless they were constantly besieged by roving bands of bandits or something. (Which I'm inclined to think would "settle out" after a few years, although exceptions would undoubtedly exist)

Now trying to progress past that point is another matter. As you're really starting to delve into more highly specialized skill sets and other associated things that present different challenges.

I could even see there being at least a telegraph communication system back in operation within a decade or so, depending on how many survived, and their proximity to each other. Those systems are fairly low energy, and low technology all things considered. There isn't a critical shortage of people who could figure out how to "re-invent" those things should conditions warrant it.

Eh, I'd disagree on that. Getting back to a 19th Century level of tech wouldn't be too hard.

Civilization is more than just technology. Rebuilding governments, laws and social structures at national levels with 19th century communications will be much harder.

Civilization is more than just technology. Rebuilding governments, laws and social structures at national levels with 19th century communications will be much harder.

Yes and no. The British Empire did fairly well without the telegraph, and they spanned much of the actual world, rather than just the "known world" like a number of empires previous. It's a matter of having enough "trusted agents" around, and the ability to get them where they're needed(above and beyond anything the other side can do) to ensure security for your group/nation/empire. Being able to outgun the other guys helps a lot too.

Things like transportation via steam engine, and the telegraph would just facilitate the spread(/resurgence) happening sooner rather than later, as that improves the mobility of your agents, and your ability to get them where they're needed.

The other side is, finding print books which discuss the theory of most of the even moderately high-technology stuff we have today are out there and not too hard to come by. (The books describing transistor theory are legion, essentially letting you skip most applications of vacuum tubes and mechanical computers at that; and gives you the precursor to the Integrated circuit, which is a more sophisticated and much smaller scale application of transistor theory)

As long as copies of that information was preserved somewhere by someone, that speeds things along even more.

When you already know the theory, and have practical examples given, or even better, scavenged equipment you can use to reverse-engineer, the process of moving forward in technology is a fair bit easier. You're not completely reinventing the wheel.

Although admittedly, even getting back to early 1980's level tech, which was largely trasistorized, would likely take decades to get back to because of all of the steps in between.

But most of the present day population wouldn't live through such shifts, they'd be dead to starvation, violence, sanitation issues(even if the knowledge of "good practices" survives), and so on. It would be one hell of a yo-yo ride though.

You're going from 21st century back to a weird 21st century post-apocalyptic scavenger/dark ages level technology level, back to roughly 19th century level tech within a decade or so at best, and back into a mid-late 20th century tech level a few decades after that. Assuming enough of a population base survived and formed a coherent and productive population base.

If it turns into a dystopian future ruled by street thugs and quasi-tribal warlords who can't be bothered to rebuild/"bootstrap" the tech back to something resembling what it was, then all bets are off.

But I'd suspect most (smart) warlords would see the value in trying to bootstrap their way back to high-technology as quickly as they could. After all, the more high-technology stuff they can use that the other can't, the more power they have.

Yes and no. The British Empire did fairly well without the telegraph, and they spanned much of the actual world, rather than just the "known world" like a number of empires previous. It's a matter of having enough "trusted agents" around, and the ability to get them where they're needed(above and beyond anything the other side can do) to ensure security for your group/nation/empire. Being able to outgun the other guys helps a lot too.

The "British Empire" took centuries to build.

Assuming enough of a population base survived and formed a coherent and productive population base.

Forming whoever is left into a coherent and productive population is going to be the really hard part.

Modern national governments are keeping all kinds of petty local rivalries from breaking out into mass violence. When civilization collapses, the immediate survivors will for small clan/tribe groups and they are going to quickly fall into a shoot first maybe ask a few questions later approach to dealing with strangers.

Pulling them back out of that and re-building a common culture is going to take time, a lot of time.

The other side is, finding print books which discuss the theory of most of the even moderately high-technology stuff we have today are out there and not too hard to come by. (The books describing transistor theory are legion, essentially letting you skip most applications of vacuum tubes and mechanical computers at that; and gives you the precursor to the Integrated circuit, which is a more sophisticated and much smaller scale application of transistor theory)

Solid-state theory is likely to be less the problem than the chemical engineering in purification of silicon and doping material, followed by problems such as etching at micron and smaller levels.

That being said, I am hearing people trying to jump to high-density integrated circuits, rather than some of the nuanced early solid-state efforts, some lacking theory. Anyone built a crystal radio? Remember moving around the electrode, on the galena crystal, until the best receiving spot were found? Now, when I did that as a kid, I didn't think of it as a solid-state diode. Even less was I aware of the technician trick of adding a third electrode and pumping small amounts of power through it, creating a point-contact transistor, as opposed to a fully solid transistor. Such a device would make a receiver far more capable.

Even in the more advanced world, there were short intermediate steps. IBM accelerated introduction of the early System/360 computers before they really could build multilayer integrated circuits. They had an intermediate method called Solid Logic Technology, where they mechanically stacked single layers.

I can speak better to chemical/pharmacological methods.

Yes, but "We have a roadmap, we know generally what do. We just have to figure out how to do it in our present circumstances." Particularly when we know what the practical applications can be.

Is leagues away from "We have no idea where to start." It also is considerably different from the first time around where the people funding said development didn't have much of a clue as to what they were creating would mean to society at large.

But even with said roadmap, that doesn't mean there couldn't be problems when steps get skipped because something important was missed.

Yes, but "We have a roadmap, we know generally what do. We just have to figure out how to do it in our present circumstances." Particularly when we know what the practical applications can be.

The biggest challenge would be to rebuild a society that can afford sustained (multi-year) research and development.

The biggest challenge would be to rebuild a society that can afford sustained (multi-year) research and development.

If they've made it to a 19th Century Steam(punk) technology level, the only limiting factor is population and available support infrastructure(which will combine population and geology). Do you have the people, and more importantly, do you have the people where they need to be to access the things you need. (Or alternatively: can you trade with someone else for it?)

Starting from near zero and building a civilization can be found in some of the going back in time to pre-modern man times

Sure, if you cal a small tribe/village a civilization.

Sort by price low to high and you will get a lot of free titles

Yes, but the original poster is looking for a very particular and likely very small subset of that.

Lucifer's Hammer a novel by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle. It isn't just "Larry Niven's."

Actually just saw a show on History or Nat Geo where they discuss that. I suspect, if anything, they went a litle soft on the after effects. They were mostly concerned with how tough it would be to replace all the transformers that would be destroyed. How about what happens to someplace like New York or Chicago with no power for 6 - 9 months?

How about what happens to someplace like New York or Chicago with no power for 6 - 9 months?

"Hell on Earth" comes to mind. Chicago is screwed in terms of drinking water and sewage, as their pumps are out of action.

NYC would still be likely to have fresh water in most of the city thanks to a gravity fed aquaduct, and enough pressure to get at least partway up some of its taller buildings.

Not that anyone would want to be above the 5th or 6th floor without elevators. Down isn't so bad, up is another matter. Which isn't to mention most modern buildings aren't built with stairs intended as the primary access. They're constructed to comply with code for "emergency purposes" not general use.

But even NYC would need to contend with its sewage, as any sewage lift stations they have would be out of service, and their treatment plants are going to have "issues" to say the least.

Then we start into ventilation in newer buildings designed around forced air systems, so you can't open the windows...

Subways have no active ventilation, and the trains aren't running anyway(as I understand they're electric; in an EMP scenario, electrical or not matters little, the electronics are likely fried unless the train was deep underground (and the rail power system didn't transmit the consequences to said train) when it happened). No escalator or elevator either, as they'd need electricity to operate.

Then we start to discuss the "fun" of trying to feed everyone in those respective cities(and others). There still are a number of "mechanical diesels" out there, but not enough to move that much freight. Pretty much any diesel engine/truck newer than the early 1990's is going to need a rebuild to replace fried electronics.

On that note, California is completely fucked c/o CARB(California Air Resources Board), as chances are good that if that truck was in reasonable working order when tighter emissions standards hit, the truck left the state. In a touch of irony, Mexico in particular would be in decent shape, as they have whole fleets of 30+ year old trucks still in freight service. In the USA those would mostly be farm trucks outside of California, but even the farmers generally run newer equipment.

But getting back to NYC/Chicago. No refrigeration in service due to no power, no viable transportation options(electronics are dead), most tall buildings have become largely unusable. Sewers aren't working as they should, and sewage can't be treated anyway. Chicago has no usable water supply, probably within hours.

Nationally, grain elevators and other bulk storage facility will have issues due to no electricity for moving things. Factory lines for nearly all large scale food(stuff) production are down for the count. Which means that even if you could move the product, they're not making more of it.

Best you could hope for in a solar EMP event is hope that it doesn't hit the lower latitudes in any significant way... And that those areas that dodge the EMP have facilities that can be used to bootstrap things back. For the U.S. that's hoping Utah, Colorado, and Kansas largely delineate the southern extreme of the impacted areas.

If Southern California, Arizona, and Texas escape we're (globally and nationally) hurting like Hell, but could recover, albeit with massive loss of life and other economic disruption that most of the "1st World" would likewise share the pain on. If they get zapped as well...

Then we start into ventilation in newer buildings designed around forced air systems, so you can't open the windows...

That's partly because modern skyscrapers are tall enough that there are pressure differential issues from top to bottom. The building is pressurized to ground level air pressure all the way up to the top.

Even a 0.5 PSI differential between inside and outside could make opening a window a catastrophic event.

Chimney effects make for fun times even without a pressure gradient. The temperature differential alone is enough.

Depends on the scenario. Solar EMP for example could range anywhere from fully global to mildly annoying(unless you live in Northern Alaska) to any step in between. People nearest to the Equator have the best chance of not being impacted by such a solar event. While the Northern Hemisphere is more vulnerable than even the southern. Not just because of population near the respective pole, but because the Northern Magnetic Pole is the strongest, Earth's own Magnetosphere is going to direct most of that energy north, while the southern pole picks up most of the remaining balance.

The other thing is in the event of a Solar EMP, the flare doesn't kill directly. What kills is going to be the consequences of electronic devices failing from induced currents(even in Cars, Trucks, Trains, and Planes) while more generic electric devices simply stop receiving power needed to operate due to transformers blowing up and circuit breakers tripping.

So while a bunch of people would die in the first few minutes, it won't be until a couple days later when water supplies start impacting people, and food becomes critical in many areas right after that. Which would probably be when the killing really starts. For the areas that escape that chaos, they're probably going to see the death rate start mounting by the end of the first week despite their best efforts.

Viral contagion scenarios, and other such post-apocalyptic stories play by other rules, but get to much the same place, except some people have a chance to get warning in advance and prepare to some degree. For what little good it may do them.

due to transformers blowing up and circuit breakers tripping.

An EMP isn't going to have any effect on transformers- they are very tough devices.

Other than what would effectively be a direct hit, power and transformers can survive lightning strikes which subject them to much more current and voltage than any form of EMP ever could ever produce.
Back in my previous job i've repaired & written off countless devices that had been hit by lightning. Even those that were damaged beyond repair, if they had a mains transformer, it was still OK (although the thermal fuse in them was often deceased).

Back in my previous job i've repaired & written off countless devices that had been hit by lightning. Even those that were damaged beyond repair, if they had a mains transformer, it was still OK (although the thermal fuse in them was often deceased).

....Which still leaves the inductor part of the transformer out of action because the support equipment attached to it were blown to Hell. Support equipment which collectively is normally referred to "as part of the Transformer" by lay persons as well as more than a few people in the industry. Knowing that a lay person will likely interpret it as such even if explained to them.

What you're describing is the process of the apocalypse. I was addressing recovery from same.

Although the term itself is confusing for other reasons. The pop-culture(read: Hollywood) take not withstanding.

"Apocalypse" is Greek. It can be translated as "uncovering" or more literally as "through the concealed" (meaning disclosure of the hidden; in theological terms "lifting the veil" and revealing God's will or other comparable concepts)

But as the second coming is tied heavily into concepts of unleashing "God's Wrath" upon the Earth, invoking lots of fire and brimstone among other things... yeah.

But that's a digression. The thing about recovery from "an apocalyptic event" does depend in large part on the nature of said event, and the processes it unleashed. How things fall apart is going to play a major role in what's left for those who survived the full ordeal until some kind of stability is restored.

If a contagion rips through the population and kills of 99.9% of everybody within days or a couple weeks, that means there likely will be all kinds of supplies and caches of useful stuff just about everywhere. As the technology still works, you just need fuel or power to support it. (And eventually parts to repair it, and the knowledge of how the do so)

While an EMP scenario means most tech is useless as it got fried. It also means supplies are going to be a lot more scarce because the population outlived its ability to sustain itself. Rather than dropping dead before (nonmedical) supplies ran out, leaving a largely intact but no longer maintained infrastructure behind.

Likewise meteors storms, asteroids, super-volcanoes, etc all bring their own mix of sudden and sometimes random population and infrastructure losses in the same go. Which could then morph into outliving their ability to sustain themselves, creating a secondary social collapse, and further destruction of things that could aid recovery.

Depending on the nature of the viral contagion, that recovery could actually be the easier one to recover from vs any other option on a global scale. As to near-global(entire regions remained intact and unharmed), I'm not sure which one has decent prospects.

super-volcanoes

Speaking of those ... while I'm normally a fan of Harry Turtledove, don't bother wasting time reading this series of books of his.

Seriously - he blew up Yellowstone, and while there's issues, he completely missed the societal breakdown and after effects. And the family that's at the center of the books, it's really a who cares about them thing.

Here's one (of many) nit-picks I have with those books - you have this super-volcano blow up, which causes all this shaking. You think that the every major earthquake fault in the country isn't also going to cut loose? Niven and Pournelle sure did in Lucifer's Hammer when they hit the earth with a small comet. And don't get me started on atmospheric dust ...

An EMP event can produce three kinds of pulse:
*E1, or early phase. This is near-instantaneous and caused by gamma radiation of a nuclear burst. It can cause direct damage to semiconductors, and flashover in the lower-voltage distribution system.
*E2 is closest to lightning.
*E3 is a subsequent, slower-rising, longer-duration pulse that creates disruptive currents in long electricity transmission lines, resulting in damage to electrical supply and distribution systems connected to such lines.
"Because of the similarity between solar-induced geomagnetic storms and nuclear E3, it has become common to refer to solar-induced geomagnetic storms as "solar EMP."

An EMP event can produce three kinds of pulse:
*E1, or early phase. This is near-instantaneous and caused by gamma radiation of a nuclear burst. It can cause direct damage to semiconductors, and flashover in the lower-voltage distribution system.
*E2 is closest to lightning.
*E3 is a subsequent, slower-rising, longer-duration pulse that creates disruptive currents in long electricity transmission lines, resulting in damage to electrical supply and distribution systems connected to such lines.
"Because of the similarity between solar-induced geomagnetic storms and nuclear E3, it has become common to refer to solar-induced geomagnetic storms as "solar EMP."

Well, that makes it a little more cheery. Most electronic devices, including vehicle control systems might survive a Solar EMP. However, the power grid is still blown to Hell. But backup generators and other such measures can help tide that over for critical services(like sewer and water, most large communities have some kind of backup power plan for the grid going down for those services in particular... that sewage treatment plants are decent sources of combustible gases certainly helps).

Still not a pleasant situation, most (noncritical) places that didn't have an alternative option would still remain "dark" while they go through and rebuild practically every power station.

That's months of work even if they have the material on hand. And that could be a cluster as they'd probably try to Federalise the rebuild process. So even if your local co-op had the means and equipment needed to restore services to part of your town. They wouldn't be able to because their spares are being commandeered to restore service "somewhere critical."

Stick an LED bulb in a microwave for 30 seconds. That would be the equivalent of a weak E2 component. Watch through the screen as it flashes and dies. Electronics being safe because they are 'turned off' is at myth.

Of course, as mentioned, Yellowstone is also a great fear but that is the USA and ash in the atmosphere which could wipe out life.

Yellowstone is a super volcano. A major eruption at Yellowstone would be a global extinction level event.

Yellowstone is a super volcano. A major eruption at Yellowstone would be a global extinction level event.

Missing a word there. It is a "near extinction level event" because it is survivable, just not for everything.

He's also somewhat correct about it being "Mostly a US/Canada thing" as the ashfall from that eruption is only going to be immediately catastrophic in North America. While the ash cloud will be a long term global disaster due to the (mega)volcanic winter that lasts for years.

Losing the American and Canadian Great Plains and Midwest under up to several feet of volcanic ash doesn't help either, as a lot of the world gets their food from there.

as the ashfall from that eruption is only going to be immediately catastrophic in North America.

The eruption itself is likely to be immediately catastrophic for most of North America, before the ash even starts to fall.

The eruption itself is likely to be immediately catastrophic for most of North America, before the ash even starts to fall.

Doubtful, the entire western U.S. is highly seismic segmented, unlike the eastern part of the continent. From 400 miles away you might notice some slight shaking in the event of a 6.7 earthquake(speaking from experience), but not much more. Now granted, a mega-eruption that can put ash into high orbit is going to be well up there on the Richter Scale, but there's no reason to think it'll be outright devastating to structures already hardened against strong earthquakes, particularly in areas hundreds of miles away.

Now granted, the people within the initial 100 to 200 miles are going to have "other" problems to contend with. If the shockwaves don't kill them, the pyroclastic bombs it's throwing into the air probably will. And then we have the pyroclastic flows to contend with...

But a lot of this is conjecture at the moment, the last supervolcanic eruption was over 70,000 years ago. The last time Yellowstone went off was nearly 3/4 of a million years ago. We know generally what it's going to do, but we don't know much as to the specifics of how.

We may have no warning signs at all, or it might start doing some other "weird things" first, which if interpreted correctly, gives us weeks or even months/years to evacuate and prepare.

Doubtful, the entire western U.S. is highly seismic segmented

West of the Rockies yes, but the area between the Appalachians and the Rockies, is not so segmented.

Earthquakes on the New Madrid fault system have caused minor damage to buildings in Chicago and Milwaukee.

Having experience a minor earthquake in Cincinnati in the 1980s, I went and checked. There have been ten quakes of 2.4 to 4.5 magnitude in the last 33 years. All of the epicenters were at least 10km down, and located within the Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky tri-state corner. My understanding is that there are a lot of other minor faults like this spread all over the Midwest between the Alleghenies and the Rockies.

There have been ten quakes of 2.4 to 4.5 magnitude in the last 33 years.

True, but there were bigger ones in the early 20th century, in the 5.5-7 range, and the geological record shows 8+ quakes 500-1000 years ago. Because seismic waves travel farther and dissipate more slowly in the mid-west than on the eastern or western seaboards, an 8+ from New Madrid would do massive damage across the entire mid-west.

While a quake that strong is unlikely from New Madrid, it is not impossible.

ETA:

Just as it could trigger other smaller volcanoes, an eruption of the Yellowstone super volcano could ring New Madrid like a bell.

I'm not worried about earthquake damage as I am the several other active (or semi-dormant) volcanoes that will probably go off in a sympathetic reaction. I just ran down the list of the top 10 most dangerous volcanoes in North America, and all but two were in the Northwest & central California area. Mt. Saint Helens is still erupting slightly, and several others are entering their 'more possible' windows.

Cumbre Vieja on Gran Canaria is a bit frightening. Still active, if it went up it could trigger a major landslip causing a megatsunami to cause havoc along the entire east coast of America (Canada to Tierra del Fuego) and the west coasts of Europe and Africa. In addition it would put ash into the atmosphere.

There is considerable debate as to the veracity and accuracy of those models. That said, I definitely wouldn't want to be below 100 feet above sea level anywhere near the Atlantic sea basin(including gulf of Mexico) for the next 24 hours after that landslide lets go.

In some areas(eastern Atlantic) I would probably be trying for even higher ground, and as the Japanese discovered, stay away from coastal canyons and mountain passes. The tsunami surge will "funnel" into there, which means it reaches higher, and moves even further inland. And they were only dealing with about 30 feet of surge at worst.

But with that landslide scenario, while by far the most likely "doomsday event" to happen in my lifetime, it still remains restricted to the Atlantic basin. Most of the world won't get hit by that event. They'll just feel the economic fallout from it.

The Pacific NW Tsunami is another one that's "coming due" that has a record of being downright nasty, but it's impact would be more limited. Not that its more limited scope gives much comfort to those in coastal Oregon/Washington/British Columbia.

Speaking of that region, Mount Rainer(so?) is supposed to be "in interval" as well, and it has a history of sending large (30+ foot thick) Lahore flows through Tacoma which could make things really bad in the SeaTac area in its own right.

"Nice enough" area to live in and visit, but I think I could do without the greatly increased risk of death by either high speed volcanic landslide or tsunami.

The Pacific NW Tsunami is another one that's "coming due" that has a record of being downright nasty, but it's impact would be more limited. Not that its more limited scope gives much comfort to those in coastal Oregon/Washington/British Columbia.

There have already been a few according to Native American stories, Chinese records and geological surveys. One of them is supposed to have started off SF and continued north as far as Alaska taking a long time to get there. I suggest areas as far afield as Japan, Phillipines, Indonesia and China would also be seriously affected and those have great economic importance.
Don't forget that the tidal wave from Krakatoa was recorded in Britain (though it was too minor to cause problems).

It was Japan who had record of an "unexplained Tsunami" back in the early 1700's. Which happens to match evidence of a major tsunami hitting Washington about the same time.

Difference is, the tsunami that hit Japan, while likely a bit more significant than what hit the U.S. after Japan's latest round with a major Tsunami. Still wasn't as severe as what they'd normally see from a locally generated one.

Now on the American side, that means the surge that happens is likely to be much more significant than anything recently observed in Japan or Sumatra.

Also, the Japanese tsunami and the Sumatran Tsunami respectively did get tracked in the Atlantic as well. But when the wave can be measured as a handful of inches,the destructive potential just isn't there.

It was Japan who had record of an "unexplained Tsunami" back in the early 1700's. Which happens to match evidence of a major tsunami hitting Washington about the same time.

I think you are referring to the great Cascadia earthquake of 26th January 1700. Surprisingly it is not included in tsunamis hitting China though 12foot waves were reported as causing damage in Japan.

This fault is reported as causing four major events in the past 1600 years - that of 1700 was 9.0 on the Richter scale

One Chinese tsunami one occurred in 1536 killing over 29,000 people at Haiyan, and the reported run-up height of this event is 20 market feet or 6.7m. The place is near the mouth of Hangzhou Bay. Another tsunami hit the same place in 1458, leading to 18000 deaths.

I haven't yet found a Chinese record for the early 1700s but there are two - 1776 and 1778 causing 10000 and "countless" (another record suggests 40000+ in 1778) deaths

Those mentioned are those of "unknown origin but with significant death tolls", the earliest on the list being 1045. Therefore they are not necessarily
associated with western American quakes - there are faults off the Chinese coast

Washington State just failed (rather miserably!) a major Cascadia Fault emergency exercise. It's the official opinion of FEMA that if (when) a historically typical magnitude 9 earthquake occurs in the Pacific NW region, it will be the greatest natural disaster in US history.

There's an excellent book recently published, "Cascadia Rising" that explains past, present, and future expectations. And yes, the tsunami effect will have severe consequences for the entire Pacific basin.

Most interesting is the precarious geographical situation of the west coast. The population centers sit on a narrow band running north and south, squeezed between the shoreline and the 'great wall' of the Cascade mountain range. The I-5 interstate highway system runs down this narrow corridor, and is expected to be broken in hundreds of places by bridge collapses and landslides. Airport runways will buckle and break (many are built on fill that will liquify). Ferry terminals will collapse and roads leading to them will be impassable. So we lose truck, emergency vehicle, air and ferry transport serving millions of people.

There aren't nearly enough helicopters available for emergency aid, and there'll be no way to move masses of food, fuel, and emergency supplies.

Hospital beds are in extremely short supply and most will be damaged; virtually all will be inaccessible.

The entire coast population will be separated into isolated pockets unable to reach each other, all waiting for help from the east through E-W access corridors through mountain passes closed by bridge collapses and landslides.

One example of the far-reaching effect: Bend, Oregon (far inland in eastern Oregon) has been informed by FEMA to plan on over 100,000 refugees straggling in from the west. Bend is a very small town. Consider the impact on services there.

Washington coast residents are now being advised to maintain a supply of potable water, food, and medicine for several weeks--which is too little. Residents here should plan on three months, for starters.

A Cascadia event would make a very good apocalyptic scenario. No need to go with a world-wide scenario. This one event could bring the US to its knees, all negative effects considered.

They ignored the fact that X million people cannot evacuate over just a few roads, assuming that those roads are serviceable and not blocked by the vehicles that will breakdown.

Or run out of gas, or be driven by either complete morons or raging assholes who will be driving in such a manner as to cause other drivers to get in accidents. Perhaps with the guilty party, perhaps not.

Which isn't to mention the people who don't understand how a traffic merge works, so they crowd their way to the front of the line, turning a process that should involve free flowing traffic, albeit at a slightly reduced speed, into a cluster of stop and go traffic.

Most plans made to deal with the aftereffects of a natural disaster are a joke.

Agreed. In fairness, I've read numerous admissions by emergency planners that evacuations are unworkable. Consider the chaos of hurricane evacuations, with days advance notice and undamaged routes. The angry congestion and vehicle breakdowns become major obstacles. Hell, I've been frustrated driving big truck in construction zones, where "Merge Left" signs are arrayed for three miles prior. All that does is cause most drivers to race ahead, ignoring the inevitable, and arriving at the choke point and traffic jam caused by everyone attempting to crowd in at the last minute.

Even a rolling blockade by big trucks, attempting to force people to merge and enable the traffic flow to continue, is resented and has even resulted in control-freak State Police ticketing the big trucks for "obstructing." I once had an SUV pass my truck on the right, barreling at 50 mph down the grass strip beside the breakdown lane that I was covering as part of the "force merge" tactic. He skidded, weaved violently, and almost rolled before he regained control and sped to the choke point a mile ahead, and was forced to a dead stop. Moral of the story: any orderly evacuation attempt will be defeated by such angry and disorderly idiots.

During the recent Cascadia Rising exercise, it was reported that some of the participants got pretty hot with each other. Example: the WSDOT emergency center was asked their estimate to clear a "major landslide" that had blocked I-5.

"Three days at the soonest," they answered.

"What? How the hell are our emergency crews going to get to the disaster area? Can't you people move faster than that?"

The screaming match began, and this was only an exercise of "what if" scenarios.

I've experienced a 7.3 earthquake. My two-story log home and our village was close to the epicenter. It was violent, roaring, and frightening. It killed some people, and raised Idaho's highest mountain by another fifty feet! But worse that that... were the successive aftershocks, one following another, and each of them a major earthquake in its own right. One finds oneself enraged and swearing uncontrollably after a time, as they keep coming. I would not care to be attempting to secure damaged bridges, or going into damaged buildings for survivors, or be setting up aid stations in areas already weakened by the main quake. A 6.0 or 5.5 aftershock can wreak bloody hell in an already devastated and vulnerable situation. Responder training is very effective. Don't become a needless victim.

Realizing that disaster plans are mostly a placebo, that resources are extremely limited and dispersed, the only effective solution is to plan ahead, stockpile, make plans with neighbors for mutual support, and keep one's water, fuel, and food reserves recycled and restocked. Plan on living without sewage, water, and electric utilities.

One last interesting point: thanks to the American "squick" factor involving nasty poo, no plan I've seen ever addresses what families need to do about bodily waste. The closest I've seen is "fill the bathtub for flush water." Oh... call for a porta-potti to be delivered? Right-o! Sewage lines and treatment plants will be knocked out along with water mains and power lines.

Here's a tip (really useful for your next Apocalypse scenario. This is practical. Cruising boats are coming to use this method (albeit a bit shinier and much more expensive): a five-gallon pail, a plastic trash bag liner, a cheap toilet seat, and a big bag of peat moss or sawdust pellets or even shredded newsprint. Put a couple handfuls in the bottom; poo and cover lightly. Repeat as needed. This will last two people for a few weeks. Do NOT pee in the bucket It's too much liquid. Pee is essentially harmless. Dispose of it outside. When the poo bag compost mix is full, find a dedicated place to put it, preferably a place where natural soil breakdown can occur. Start a new bag in the bucket. Problem solved. No big sanitation or disease situation.

Oh, that boat thing? There's one called "AirHead" and it costs a thousand bucks. Basically the same approach as a bucket and a plastic garbage bag with peat moss.

Here's a tip (really useful for your next Apocalypse scenario. This is practical. Cruising boats are coming to use this method (albeit a bit shinier and much more expensive): a five-gallon pail, a plastic trash bag liner, a cheap toilet seat, and a big bag of peat moss or sawdust pellets or even shredded newsprint.

What you are describing is a make shift composting toilet.

You can also buy commercially built composting toilets if you are really planning ahead.

Yes, I'm well aware of that. However, in many areas of the US there is rigid opposition by many (really, too numerous to list here) housing, zoning, city, and state authorities. Any handling of human waste outside the traditionally, certified, conventional processes is subject to severe suspicion.

That said, there are areas where composting toilets are seen as a great benefit. Washington State has for years used Clivus Multrum composting toilets in its state parks. The federal parks still use concrete vault pit toilets. The stench from those shit pits is unbelievable; the compost toilets are quite inoffensive.

My point, really, is that the home-made bucket model is practical for everyone from a suburban acreage to a Seattle hi-rise apartment dweller. The components can be stored in a closet with other emergency supplies, and assembled when needed for use. It's so cheap that if it's never used, there's no sacrifice. And if necessary, the full bags of compost can be tied off and tossed in the garbage dumpster along with the dirty disposable diapers (which the authorities have not yet dared to ban, although its tantamount to throwing tons of raw shit in our trash each day).

The boat models do solve a huge cruising problem, as federal and state authorities are going to extreme ends to pick the "low-hanging fruit" of recreational boat toilets, while failing to deal with far worse pollution sources. A boat compost toilet eliminates the dreaded poo overboard but does not solve the urine problem (which is accepted as pathogenic, but is still strictly forbidden for overboard discharge).

If a cabin boat has no toilet, it needs meet no other requirements. And an open boat full of fishermen on the water all day has no toilet and is unregulated. Therefore both tend to adopt the old cedar bucket solution. "Bucket and chuck it."

The key element for emergency situations is to make it accessible, affordable, simple, and ready-to-hand. Commercial units do not meet that criteria; they are permanent installation that require a substantial outlay and dedicated installation. And there's another problem.

The city on the island where I live is engaged in a $100 Million-plus sewage treatment project. Some serious-minded citizens asked that the city authorities consider using that huge sum of money to instead provide each city household with a composting toilet, and use the balance for something more useful. The city authorities immediately responded that the new sewage treatment plant would still be required, as current health regulations consider shower and bath water as "black" water requiring the full sewage treatment process.

For those homes in the county who have legally installed composting toilets, I can only assume that the county still requires the full-blown septic tank and drain-field treatment of the household grey and black water discharge.

To add insult to injury, in the last couple of years we came within an eyelash of being required to treat or capture our engine-cooling water in holding tanks on federal waters. Most inboard boat engines pump raw salt water through a heat exchanger to carry heat away from the engine's permanent antifreeze coolant. The only "contaminant" is heat... which is considered a pollutant.

So after the emergency is over, normal services come back online, the dead have been buried, the injured are healing, and lives begin to come back to normal, it would be a very prudent family that would NEVER, EVER mention where they stashed or emptied the emergency compost toilet bags!

However, in many areas of the US there is rigid opposition by many (really, too numerous to list here) housing, zoning, city, and state authorities. Any handling of human waste outside the traditionally, certified, conventional processes is subject to severe suspicion.

Most of the commercial models have a slightly better composting process, can handle urine and can be used continuously with only the need to empty fully processed compost.

They are free standing units and would only take up slightly more room than your homemade bucket model.

As long as you have all the required traditional plumbing, they don't need to know you have a composting toilet stashed away for emergencies.

Well, you've caught me in a snarly mood this a.m. (I'm old and my insomnia is reaming me--it's five a.m. and I've been up since three).

Don't go kicking shit at granola crunchers and bleeding hearts. There's enough blame to spread around for everybody. Right now I'm trying to think of a way to thank all them dupes who just handed the US to the oligarchs. When it comes down on your head, don't come pissin' & moanin' to me. I'll be the one out in the back yard tendin' the veggie patch and the rabbit hutch for something to eat.

As for tofu eaters and leeches dyin' off in a disaster, don't get so smug; disasters take everybody at random, depending on the luck of the draw. It might even be you or someone of yours.

Now, speaking of rule books, I'll agree on that. Since the US went insane with insecurity, and lumped everything into the Department of Homeland Security, it's all been turned upside-down. Everything is now a top-down structure. Nobody can do anything without a DHS-sanctioned certificate, authorization, credential, or procedure. Every potential emergency responder is expected to be pre-qualified and certified under the DHS umbrella, conforming to DHS supervision. How this will hold up in the face of reality, such as Washington and Oregon totally failing the DHS-directed Emergency Exercises, remains to be seen, and I'm not aware of any contingency fall-back positions in the DHS thinking other than perhaps imposing Martial law to suppress the unhappy survivors.

As for the water for agriculture issue, again we may agree, but it's the politicians and urban dwellers who are in control. In my years living in the isolated Mountain West where the Federal Government owned 97 percent of our county (the size of the state of Connecticut) and 67 percent of our state, we few rural residents lived under the thumb of organized urban Disney-freaks. Disney-freaks: they watch Disney "nature films" and believe Bambi is the true Messiah. And cattle are spawn of Satan sent to shit in Bambi's sacred Mountain Meadows and Campgrounds. So I don't need lectures on that point.

Urban environmentalists are NOT conservationists. They shun compromise and despise multiple-use thinking. They don't share. In that regard, they're like the DHS: unyielding rules apply, and dissenting opinions are intolerable heresy.

As for Oklahoma and tornadoes, I do think it's rather cute that the Rigidly-Right Oklahoma state government thinks it is a Socialist plot to provide public funding for tornado shelters to be built in the public schools. So there aren't any. I'd assume the wealthy private schools have provided shelters for themselves? Perhaps letting public schools stand unprotected is just another twist on the theme of natural selection: let the kids who can't afford to attend private schools die and decrease the undeserving "leech" population?

I gotta go get another cuppa joe. I hate this gettin' old bullcrap. If only it weren't for the alternative.

Perhaps letting public schools stand unprotected is just another twist on the theme of natural selection: let the kids who can't afford to attend private schools die and decrease the undeserving "leech" population?

It's probably more of a "blind spot" they had when building previous schools(Probably because their schools historically were of two flavors: small and easily blown away(but other shelter options were nearby, or early warning simply wasn't available yet), or brick and mortar built so solidly a tank would have a hard time getting in.

Modern construction practices aren't quite so robust, unless mandated by code. (Which they weren't)

It's definitely something they're doing something about in newer constructions. However, there is a major cost factor on retrofitting it into the hundreds of already standing schools. That isn't a cheap undertaking, and statistically speaking based on past history, the odds of a tornado hitting an in session, or otherwise highly occupied school is pretty freaking low. As such it's a matter of prioritizing risk (of doing nothing) vs reward of deferring the requisite improvements until later.

The best option would be to target schools that need to replace or expand their auditoriums / gyms, and have them construct auditoriums /gyms to be suitable disaster shelters for tornadoes, floods, etc. This way the schools are already committed to spending significant money, and the state or federal government need only fund part pf it to have it upgraded to the shelter standard.

Which works back to deferring the work until such time as those overhauls are warranted. In the meantime they cross their fingers and hope the school doesn't get demolished while it's filled with people inside it.

Which works back to deferring the work until such time as those overhauls are warranted. In the meantime they cross their fingers and hope the school doesn't get demolished while it's filled with people inside it.

No it works out to deferring the work until way past when the overhauls should have been considered an emergency issue.

In Wisconsin, School districts can't issue bonds without a referendum approving the bond issue.

There was a school district in Wisconsin that new it needed to replace one of it's school buildings, but the voters kept rejecting the bond issue.

One day the floor/ceiling separating two class rooms collapsed. Classes were in session and student's were in the building at the time, though fortunately the affected class rooms were unoccupied.

The bond issue for the new building was put on the ballot for the next scheduled election and finally passed.

I'm wondering if over-crowded schools in Oklahoma are using those 'temporary' manufactured classrooms that look like single-wide trailers. Up here in the PacNW they've sprouted like mushrooms in the less affluent school districts. 'Temporary' proves to be temporary as in 'temporary tax increase.' How many of ya'll want to be in one of those cracker boxes when the tornado hits?

Excuses are always the same: no money, its not needed, voters won't approve funding, etc. etc.

are using those 'temporary' manufactured classrooms that look like single-wide trailers.

Here on the east coast the elementary school I attended brought in one that looked like a double wide when I attended the school back in the early 70's. When I returned in 2010, a new school had been built next door (in 1998?), the old school was falling down but the portable classroom was still there.

'temporary' manufactured classrooms that look like single-wide trailers.

My kindergarten year (so 1965) was in a single wide, 4th grade was in a double wide, back in Indiana. And when things got nasty, they evacuated us (quickly) into the main hallway of the school.

But it's always the same in small communities. My class was supposed to be the first to graduate from the new high school. It was actually built almost 10 years later.

I do know, however, that down here in Oklahoma, rural schools DO have storm shelters for their students and faculty. They may be poor - they're NOT stupid.

I do know, however, that down here in Oklahoma, rural schools DO have storm shelters for their students and faculty. They may be poor - they're NOT stupid.

My reason for using OK as the example is that I watched with sadness and disbelief the news stories of the school that collapsed when struck by a tornado sometime back. Students died. At the time, there was commentary that the OK legislature had been petitioned numerous times to provide funding for shelters for OK schools, and steadfastly refused to do so. So I can only believe that if rural OK schools have shelters, the independent and common-sense rural folk dug deep and voted the funds locally to protect their children.

Here in Australia the school buses are regular use buses from full-time bus services doing a special service run to and from school, that are used for other bus services at other times, and spend most of their time on the road.

Here in the US, the only private bus services other than school bus operators are long distance inter-city services. Even if they had enough spare capacity in any one city, it wouldn't be economical to use them as school buses.

The general short haul transit buses are all cit and/or county run operations. A, they don't have a lot of spare capacity, and there is a lot of overlap between when students are going to school and the heaviest demand times for the city/county bus services.

On top of that, there are a host of safety/traffic regulations around school buses that don't apply to general transit buses.

There are more stringent internal (for the passengers) safety standards for school buses than for general transit buses.

US school buses have a number of external safety devices (stop signals). An US traffic laws require traffic to stop (going both ways except for divided boulevards) when the school bus is picking up or dropping off passengers.

but I wonder if they provide any real life safety increases.

I would think that school buses can stop traffic in both directions while kids cross the street before/after getting on/off the bus provides a measurable safety improvement.

... school buses can stop traffic in both directions ...

They put the 'STOP' arm out there and the red lights flash but that doesn't make anyone stop. There are videos taken of vehicles passing buses on BOTH sides. The best video I've seen is the one of the driver that got fed up with vehicles ignoring the signals and now stops their bus so it blocks both lanes of traffic.

They put the 'STOP' arm out there and the red lights flash but that doesn't make anyone stop.

And if you don't stop, the bus driver gets your license plate number and you get a ticket for a moving violation in the mail.

IF the driver can write fast enough to get all the number plates.

He would get at least a few of them.

IF the driver can write fast enough to get all the number plates.

He would get at least a few of them.

In many cases, the bus driver doesn't even see the car coming because they are paying attention to the passengers. When it zooms by, the driver is looking to see if anyone got hit. If the driver is lucky, they will get the color and MAYBE a make. other than that, best hope for other drivers to have gotten more information on the offender. Even then without hard evidence it's doubtful anything will be done.

Even then without hard evidence it's doubtful anything will be done.

If the bus driver reports it, they will send a ticket to the driver of the car. It happened to my brother.

If the bus driver reports it, they will send a ticket to the driver of the car. It happened to my brother.

They would have to prove that it was your brother driving at the time.

This is one example of how quickly things happen. Driver speeds past Graham school bus, nearly hits 3 kids - YouTube

I wonder if they ever caught that person.

They would have to prove that it was your brother driving at the time.

Not the way the law is written in my state.

They would have to prove that it was your brother driving at the time.

Not the way the law is written in my state.

If your brother has hard evidence that he was elsewhere at the time, they cannot write him a ticket as the driver if he could not have been the one driving.
Some states have laws that say that the owner of the vehicle is responsible for how it is used. In incidents where they cannot identify the driver, they can cite the owner of the vehicle.

In incidents where they cannot identify the driver, they can cite the owner of the vehicle.

And that's the way the law is written in my state and why they didn't have to prove my brother was the one driving his car.

And that's the way the law is written in my state and why they didn't have to prove my brother was the one driving his car.

They can cite him as the owner, but if they put in that he was operating the vehicle (which is what was stated initially), then he's not guilty.

I read the book "Malevil" by Robert Merle that was written in 1972 about nuclear war survivors in France as a teenager in the early 80's. It really made an impression on me to this day.

If the bus driver reports it, they will send a ticket to the driver of the car.

Wouldn't that ticket be going to the registered owner of the car. The driver a lot of times is not always the owner of the vehicle.

Wouldn't that ticket be going to the registered owner of the car. The driver a lot of times is not always the owner of the vehicle.

Correct, it'd be along the lines of a parking ticket. As it is issued against the car, which would be legally represented by its owner. Which may not have been the person operating it and thus provided the cause for the ticket to be issued.

Wouldn't that ticket be going to the registered owner of the car. The driver a lot of times is not always the owner of the vehicle.

Yes, it would be going to the registered owner of the car. The way the law is written in my state, the registered owner can be held liable for certain moving violations. Failing to stop for a school bus is one of them.

Yes, it would be going to the registered owner of the car. The way the law is written in my state, the registered owner can be held liable for certain moving violations. Failing to stop for a school bus is one of them.

My worst nightmare would be caused if I even accidentally harmed a child. Its the one thing I could never forgive myself for.

That can be done with road rules without incurring the cost of a specialized fleet that is hardly used at other times

Not the way the US road rules are written. The rules explicitly require particular markings and specialized signaling equipment on the exterior of the bus.

In any case, kids are going to / from school at the same general times the bulk of adults are going to/from work.

Even if you did use the same buses that are used for general transit, you would still have the same number of buses idle at the same times.

To adopt the model you describe as being used in Australia, laws would have to change at every level of government.

School districts (public and private) would have to change their hours, starting earlier and letting out later.

It might reduce operating costs, but the one time costs would to make the transition would be huge and it would face enormous political opposition.

in Australia the school buses are regular use buses from full-time bus services doing a special service run to and from school, that are used for other bus services at other times, and spend most of their time on the road.

In this area (east of London, UK) school bus services are run by local education authorities who contract normal bus companies with normal (often old) buses. Weekdays they seem to be used only twice a day
but at weekends when maintenance is carried out on closed railway lines they are used as the official replacement for trains (a major transport link around here)

Which makes you wonder how much the legislated US School Bus System costs the tax payer in relation to what it delivers.

Two factors: first, to survive in the US both parents must hold full-time jobs; that precludes a parent being available to drive kids back and forth to school. Also, the hours don't jibe, creating a time conflict.

The other factor was caused by massive school consolidation as an "economy measure" that began in full force a half century ago. Multiple schools in small communities were forced by federal and state authorities to consolidate into one centralized location. The rationale was to eliminate duplication of administrative functions, and it was also--rather vehemently argued by some--to improve the educational opportunity for small-school students.

The result was to greatly increase the distances from outlying homes to the central school, thus mandating a large and costly bus fleet. Whether any real savings were achieved in administrative overhead is debatable, as bureaucratic 'empire building' and huge administrative salaries far exceed any previous budgets; also, a school of 5,000 students with class sizes of 35 to 40 students crammed into a room where teachers are powerless to enforce discipline does overwhelm the 'enhanced educational opportunity' argument. But I digress: America feels buses are for the unwashed classes who cannot afford proper cars; thus, we do not have available commercial bus fleets. If it weren't for the ubiquitous yellow school bus, all the kids would be hitch-hiking.

Here in Australia the school buses are regular use buses from full-time bus services doing a special service run to and from school, that are used for other bus services at other times, and spend most of their time on the road. In the most part the bus companies make a profit each year.

I'll go back to 1966 through 1979, when I rode a bus to school. I grew up in rural Indiana - we had three different school corporations in the county, total population of 10,000, with total area covered 450 square miles. In our school corporation, all the grades rode the same bus. The buses were all privately owned by their drivers, and the drivers bid on their routes each year. My high school graduating class was huge - all 52 of us.

The thing with Australia is that 70% of the country has only 3% of your population living in it. That means it's easier for the towns where people DO live to do what they do. In certain communities here, it could work that way. But since we have over 3,100 counties in the U.S., with about 2,600 of them rural, that's sort of tough. (And the minor detail that we also have more than 15 times the population of Australia, with nearly as many people in the New York metro area alone as you have in your entire country, creates it's own issues. If we only had 30 million people living here, I'm sure we'd have a different set of rules as well.)

If your writing a thriller, trying to stop the terrorists from using their small nuke to cause that landslide would be a good plot line. A lot more bang for the buck so to speak than setting it off on Wall Street.

Stirling is a fairly well-known SF writer.
John Ringo, another fairly successful writer

I think I understand the desire to be careful in describing other authors, but using "fairly" damns with faint praise. I think it would be fair to say both are well known and successful.

I don't. I know of several SF fans who don't know who they are, haven't heard of them or read them. So they're not even universal names in the SF community. Hence, "fairly."

Steve Stirling (writes as 'S.M. Stirling') has a whole series set in a post-apocalyptic end-of-technology-magic-returns universe. It's commercial, available as hardcover, softcover, etc. on Amazon. Stirling is a fairly well-known SF writer.

FYI, he has an active Facebook group and will discuss his writing. There's an excellent fan base.

From what I've seen and read of the US school buses when they're not on school runs they sit idle, so they sit around during the holidays and weekends.

In rural areas, you have to have your own transportation so there is little other demand for public transit.

On the other hand, Most urban areas already have public bus systems and kids are going to/from school at the same time as the peak demand for public transit. Even if they had the capacity to make special runs for school kids, that capacity would still sit idle most of the time.

I have a feeling that Australia has one or more of the following differences from the US.

1. School day schedules are different, so kids aren't going to/from school at the same times mom/dad are going to/from work.

2. A significant difference in how work shifts are scheduled, so all the adults aren't going to/from work at the same times.

3. Significantly fewer two income families.

In most US metro areas, most of the public transit most of the transit capacity sits idle most of the day. 80% of the demand compresses into a couple of hours in the morning and a couple of hours in the late afternoon. Add another couple of hours in the evening for the change between 2nd and 3rd shift and that's 90% of the daily transit demand in just 6 hours.

The complicating factor on U.S. School Buses, in relation to transit buses is that the School Bus can stop all traffic on a street/road/side of a divided highway.. So that they can provide a safe(er) means of crossing the street for students.

Transit Buses on the other hand, most they can do is stop in traffic and block the lane they're in.

The complicating factor on U.S. School Buses, in relation to transit buses is that the School Bus can stop all traffic on a street/road/side of a divided highway.. So that they can provide a safe(er) means of crossing the street for students.

Transit Buses on the other hand, most they can do is stop in traffic and block the lane they're in.

Buses used for school kids here in Australia also have flashing lights for use only when they are being school buses.
So drivers have to give way and watch out more than normal when it's carting kids, and it's just a normal bus when not doing school runs.

While it may be the law, it certainly isn't enforced much. I spent aa couple of years traveling in an RV and "school" buses were extremely common as campers, still in original livery (sometimes the ISD was still shown as well), though I can't recall ever seeing the red stop sign still there.
That said, I agree they should be repainted, as abuse of the color will lead to genuine buses being overlooked or ignored.

While it may be the law, it certainly isn't enforced much.

It depends on state laws. Most, but not all, states require they be repainted. In some places, even private schools are not allowed to use 'all yellow' buses.

It depends on state laws. Most, but not all, states require they be repainted. In some places, even private schools are not allowed to use 'all yellow' buses.

Maybe the owners should just paint a few pinstripes on the bus that would change the color pattern I believe.

Maybe the owners should just paint a few pinstripes on the bus that would change the color pattern I believe.

As I said, it depends on the state. Some states say that removal of school bus markings and warning lights is enough, others say the bus cannot have any NSBY (National School Bus Yellow) showing at all.

Here are a couple of links to forums for people who do convert former school buses for private use.
http://www.skoolie.net/forums/f13/legal-paint-5412.html
http://www.skoolie.net/forums/f10/national-school-bus-yellow-12.html

I know. They are just forums discussions, but the people writing the posts have the experience and have done the research. If you really want to know what the laws say for each state, feel free to look up the laws for all 50 states plus DC.

I wonder to what detail they insist on being changed,

Some require the removal of lighting, stop arms, and other warning equipment in addition to the references to 'School Bus'. Others say they cannot be painted NSBY (National School Bus Yellow) at all.

See my response to docholladay above.

And I think that school buses are going to be first thing reappearing after apocalypse (at least according to so many posts about them here) :D

They're likely to be the only readily available group transport

And you will put a lot of people who just survived apocalypse - together in old school bus ???

With so manny postapocalypse stories I'm wondering why didn't (almost) anybody thinking about APC's, or other military transports, or even truck for money transport, or something similar hardened?

With so manny postapocalypse stories I'm wondering why didn't (almost) anybody thinking about APC's, or other military transports, or even truck for money transport, or something similar hardened?

I wouldn't use any of those because they consume way too much fuel per mile.

I wouldn't use any of those because they consume way too much fuel per mile.

And they are one hell of a cumbersome, heavy load for a team of horses to pull!

Which reminds me: come the meltdown, there's going to be a huge market for harness-making skills.

Which reminds me: come the meltdown, there's going to be a huge market for harness-making skills.

Not just harness. Almost all the leather crafting skills will become essential from the tanning stages to the final items. Tanning as a rule was separated from populated and business areas due to the smells involved. Blacksmith skills would also become important. And those are just the tip of the iceberg of skills which would become extremely important. Every survival grouping would have to have some either relearning these skills are with luck someone with the basic skills already. Woodworking skills would also be needed for many things. And those are just the tip of the iceberg of related skill sets which either would need to be available or being studied.

Its one reason I enjoy some program selections since they at least give a glimpse of the related skills needed. And I don't mean those darn survival shows (they are too unrealistic).

Not just harness. Almost all the leather crafting skills will become essential from the tanning stages to the final items.

Harness-making was just a representative example, naturally. Toss in boot-making, drive belts (remember those big leather belts from the steam engine pulley to the mill works or threshing machine? Until we developed the textile and rubber-vulcanizing skills to make stronger compound belts?) and other specialized leather works, even including the massive leather-layered slung suspension works that made a stage-coach ride less than teeth-jarring. So many lost specialized skill sets!

Another classic example that is usually overlooked in post-apocalyptic scenarios: metal and forging specialties. Look in your tool box, or jog down to the local hardware store. Pick up a common bastard file. Examine it closely. Study the precise machining of the file teeth. Test the incredible hardness of the steel, that allows the teeth to cut without instant dulling or flaking off. NOW ... try to imagine what it takes to make a common, garden-variety bastard file without the specialized skill sets, or the machine tools required? It's a daunting task.

Want to build a post-apocalyptic steam engine? First... you make a file!

Something so easily overlooked is the almost miraculous explosion of technological development that occurred beginning in the 19th century that continues to this day. Up until the 19th, our technology was pretty much confined to human muscles, wind, water, and horsepower. Then it all changed beginning with steam, and the scientific method that spurred systematic research and development. If we lose those latter-day centuries of systematic skills and methods, we cannot realistically bridge the gulf between the beginning and the end, without re-learning each step between.

So, my challenge remains: let the apocalypse survivor attempt to relearn the skills and methods and processes to forge and mill a bastard file from what remains of the wreckage. Good luck with that!

First make sure you have a water supply and a fuel supply, THEN you make the forge.

What the hammer? what the chain,
In what furnace was thy brain?
What the anvil? what dread grasp,
Dare its deadly terrors clasp!

the first thing you need to do is gain the knowledge of how to make the forge and file.

The first thing you need to do is raid the hardware stores as soon as you can and gather all the axes, saws, files, chisels, etc that you can get your hands on. Then hit the library and grab the survival books. :D

Foxfire books

I read a couple of them and found them very educational as well. Sure most of what I learned was unneeded in today's society.

I was in survivalist mode in some ways. Resisting public assistance at all costs out of fear of the government agencies. I found at least 1 good clam digging area almost in the heart of Long Beach California. To my knowledge very few even knew it was there. I usually made semi regular visits to get enough for my clam chowder. (lasted at least a week per pot)

Also a few other items I took advantage of in other areas for surviving on the streets or however you want to look at things.

Back in the early to mid 1980s I was afraid that we were all going to get to live in a post-apocalyptic world. Our fearless leaders were doing entirely too much sabre rattling for my comfort, and I was convinced one of the idiots in charge on one side or the other was going to push the button. I was preparing to try to survive the aftermath

Back in the late fifties we were waiting for The Bomb being closer to Russia. The school I was at actually taught survival skills to two platoons including water rescue, fire fighting (local fire station tunnels), first aid, assessment of the effects of nuclear radiation, clearing destroyed buildings (what you see on TV after an earthquake) etc..

We were involved in exercises with the fire brigade, ambulance service, police, civil defence from three counties at a "wrecked village"..
36 - 48 hours solid with real human "victims" were t I r I n g!

You guys didn't learn anything useful.
I was as young lad reading (and tying to learn) anything available about surviving, and it didn't prepare me for real war, - just one "small" local war.

Do you know that proper house burns down in less than two hours, or that corpse in medium mild weather start to terribly stink in less than two days?
Or value of pack of cigars in black market?
Or what is black market in besieged city?
Or, how to run diesel engine on vegetable oil?
or real value of bicycle, and how much your whole body hurts when you are just missed by artillery shell?

...
There is so much real life knowledge that anything written here couldn't cover more than just one small point of everything - jet you have lost more than half of this post on something so trivial as school buses :(

Excellent points!

Which begs the question, how many have lived for any length of time under primitive conditions? Off the grid, pit toilet, kerosene & candlelight, wood heat, no radio or phone, root cellar and canned goods for food storage, and many miles to the nearest store with horseback transportation? Some of us ol' farts have lived that experience.

For starters, would someone care to guess how much time & labor is involved in cutting, splitting and laying up five to six cords of firewood with an axe and crosscut saw? Let alone finding suitable standing dead timber, and hauling it? That's a full 4' x 4' x 8' cord, not a phony 'face' cord. Or growing, harvesting, preserving, and laying by a winter's food supply?

And good luck keeping that axe and crosscut saw sharp! There's another specialized skill that's all but forgotten. And if you don't have the right files, forget it. You'll shiver in the cold & dark.

School buses? Give me a freakin' break. And all of that is while nobody is shootin' at you, or confiscating what you've laid by.

Some have when they start near a military base with them, but it comes down to access and other resources. When you need to move people from an area in groups you find the best people mover you can find in your area, and use it. School buses are ubiquitous in the US and are also know for having the keys handy to them in the office of the parking area.

This. Finding a school bus is much MUCH easier than finding an APC. Also, it's going to be easier to scavenge parts for the bus because of that same reason.

Likewise, as time progresses, road and bridge conditions will deteriorate, and that APC weighs a whole Hell of a lot more than a school bus does.

Now yes, sometimes that weight would be an advantage, but other times, that extra weight could translate into your ride falling through a bridge, or collapsing an embankment/sinkhole that was ready to pop as it were.

For example, weight is a big factor on how the Artillery guns from the 1970's are pretty much only getting upgrades in electronics rather than replaced with bigger/more powerful set pieces. Much bigger, and most roads and bridges wouldn't be able to handle them at all without extensive reconstruction. That big gun doesn't benefit you tactically if it cannot get into range until 3 weeks after you needed it.

While it may be the law, it certainly isn't enforced much. I spent aa couple of years traveling in an RV and "school" buses were extremely common as campers, still in original livery (sometimes the ISD was still shown as well), though I can't recall ever seeing the red stop sign still there.

In my state, they just paint over the "School" part of the school bus, remove the deployable stop sign and call it done.

Private/charter schools can have their own Yellow Bus as well.

Interstate Highway system (minimum speed on those roads were 55 MPH)

Minimum speed was 40 miles per hour.

Minimum speed was 40 miles per hour.

45 in some states, at least when double nickel(55 MPH) wasn't law of the land.

I ordered the entire 12 book set from Barnes and Noble last year for just under $125 and only took about 2 weeks for delivery in case anybody is interested.

If the disaster is a nuclear strike, the EMP pulse from each explosion will knock out all unshielded electronics. Thus, the discussions about using older pre-electronic engine controlled vehicles. Anyone attempting to use tablets. laptops, etc. needs to keep backup hardware & data files in EMP hardened storage facilities.

Not entirely true. In many cases, "saving an electronic device" (or part) could be as simple as don't have it plugged into anything when the EMP hits. Because what's going to zap most of those electronics isn't going to be anything induced within the component itself, it's going to be all the current induced through all of that wiring which is only wrapped in a thin sheaf of plastic. (Or induced voltage being passed through in house wiring/"the grid" external from the house; including copper phone wire and cable TV, not just the power company. Although if you're on fiber optics instead of wire, that shouldn't be able to zap your stuff)

Another basic option for some limited shielding from an EMP is, I shit you not, throw it into your microwave, and unplug the microwave from the grid.

Another basic option for some limited shielding from an EMP is, I shit you not, throw it into your microwave, and unplug the microwave from the grid.

Yep, The microwave is shielded to keep the microwaves in. No surprise it can keep EMPs out as well. A Faraday cage would probably also work.

So we should all be prepared for EMP by placing our laptops in our microwaves when we are not using them. :)

That depends entirely on what you have on said laptop, and what provisions you've made to provide power for the laptop after the event. :)

But as a "poor mans Faraday Cage" using old/non functioning microwaves for storage of "vital information" isn't too terrible of an idea. The better option by far, if you had the resources, would be to actually build a structure that essentially is a Faraday Cage itself, and store stuff in there instead. As that leaves potential to have sufficient space to park a(n offline) generator inside of it, waiting and ready to be deployed after the EMP catastrophe strikes. Which is something that you be unlikely to achieve by limiting yourself to the form factor of a microwave oven cavity.

Which isn't to say you couldn't do so, you wouldn't need to protect the entire generator, just many parts of it. (It should be noted that the Russians managed to destroy a mechanical diesel powered generator in the 1960's during one of their EMP tests, they literally melted the induction coils IIRC. Although they also didn't provide further details regarding what they were doing with the generator or what it may have been connected to... But it isn't just "electronics" that is vulnerable)

For example: Back in the 50's and 60's people prepared for a nuclear attack by building bomb shelters. Their whole focus was on surviving the initial blast. Their preparations failed to take into consideration things like fallout, the amount of time necessary for emergency services to reach them, and many other critical factors.

Yes, and a lot of that went back to they trusted the government, and the government was basically telling them "don't worry, we've got that covered." Even though they didn't.

Although the 1950's and 1960's was a slightly more unique era in that respect as well. Destruction of electronics would have been annoying for them, but not outright devastating. Loss of the power grid would have likewise been extremely problematic, but unlikely to endanger most people. Most of the country had only comparatively recently been electrified at that point(some areas didn't have electrical service until the 1970's, although most people had electricity by the 1950's). Life before electricity was in living memory of most Americans.

Hell, there still was a multitude of people alive at that time who had been blacksmiths at some point in their life(possibly even then), although most of them were probably working as machinists by then. So for that population base, a technological roll-back to the 19th Century wouldn't have been an completely apocalyptic scenario like it is today. They had a multitude of people who had the relevant knowledge to make things happen at that level of tech, and could work them forward from there.

Today, we have lost much of that "gap" knowledge they had during that time frame. We get zapped hard enough, we're not going back to the 19th century(although we could probably get back there after a couple decades), we're going back to the Medieval Era, or even further back, technology wise. Simply because we don't have either the skill sets needed to operate in that low/no tech stage, or the equipment in many cases. And it's probably going to take that long to get those things set up, even with a proverbial instruction manual(of which, even those are getting hard to find in "hard copy").

heck I just make sure I have a supply of different fishing lines, hooks and sinkers. Bait can be found or made in many ways. The fishing line depending on strength can be used to make snares for small game. I would start with those and scrounge for other tools and or equipment. Fishing lines can be placed as trot lines.(unattended) Giving time to search out other resources

You are assuming that there is water close by with fish in it. Don't forget (if you are in Europe) to learn how to make a trap for eels and for crayfish etc. Fishing hooks OK but I would want (and have) brass wire which has been in damp or wet earth for six weeks. The earth removes human odour and the wire makes snares for rabbits etc. Equally good is some horse mane and some wheat grains - you can then catch pheasants etc with your hands.

You are assuming that there is water close by with fish in it.

The thing is to start with simple small steps. Since survival has to be done in steps. Small ones then bigger ones as resources allow it. I have also lived in desert type areas and snares are definitely good to set up. Do those things then check them and/or reset at least once a day. The rest of the day can be used for other steps. With luck the snares and/or trot line will provide some basic supplies even if its not what a person is used to. If someone is hungry even squirrels or whatever could taste awfully good. Nice part is those procedures are fairly quiet. Guns and other things create noise, potentially making for a higher risk factor. Not all survivors will be peaceful, much better to be able to hopefully spot them first.

The thing is to start with simple small steps. Since survival has to be done in steps. Small ones then bigger ones as resources allow it. I have also lived in desert type areas and snares are definitely good to set up. Do those things then check them and/or reset at least once a day. The rest of the day can be used for other steps. With luck the snares and/or trot line will provide some basic supplies even if its not what a person is used to.

Very true but above all is being educated in advance. There are 1001 things one CAN eat from mushrooms to snakes to bugs to some seaweeds / mosses but it is no use being dumped out in the wilderness with no knowledge.
I also agree that guns are a danger - attracting malevolent persons, becoming reliant and then running out of ammunition.....

Basic rule of survival is to be aware of your surroundings which includes "People". Preferably without them knowing you are watching. It was figured out just how observant I was by a certain individual once. I thought I was a dead man(lol). He had one of his men invite me to sit with him one day at one of my favorite restaurants. First question from him was: "How much of my business do you know about?" None of his business operations fell into the legal category. Like for example at that time he had a garage that he rented out under two different contracts for the same time period. One read like a standard contract with names taken from a stone. The real contract read one dollar per brick per day and was just an oral contract.

Basic rule of survival is to be aware of your surroundings which includes "People".

Absolutely correct; saved me on at least three occasions when people were trying to get into position to mug me. (One did get close behind me but suddenly got a rising foot in a painful place). The other rule I followed in Brasil was to dress like a favela resident - torn jeans, dirty teeshirt ... If you look at a Paris woman and a London woman you will see they walk differently; I taught myself to move like a local. There is a multitude of tricks available. to reduce the danger.

The other rule I followed in Brasil was to dress like a favela resident - torn jeans, dirty teeshirt

Nothing wrong with fading into the background. I used to pull that trick off a lot although the time I got caught scared me big time. The man who caught me operated a few businesses. One of which was a neighborhood bar where the phones in the backroom made him around a 100k a week. I got scared when he asked "How much of my business do you know about?" That could have turned very serious quickly.

The other rule I followed in Brasil was to dress like a favela resident - torn jeans, dirty teeshirt

Nothing wrong with fading into the background. I used to pull that trick off a lot although the time I got caught scared me big time.

It wasn't only Brasil. I was not caught (though people around had a good laugh) when another Doc, a would-be Doc Doolittle (in this case from the capital) listened to me and declared "you come from Bo" (Wrong country, wrong language - I copied an earlier girlfriend's accent. That had been an immense help in doing things foreigners should not properly do.) Everyone around knew the truth but didn't disabuse him.

another Doc

i was born with the nick in a manner of speaking. I have found through experience that any male with the Last Name "Holladay" under any spelling format will at some point in their life be called "Doc". Its due to that old gambler/gunfighter.

My real name is "Holladay" and I was too darn lazy to try and come up with a different nick for online usage. But with the number of people with the same nick, I feel fairly safe. Heck I know of at least 2 with the same exact name as I have.

I was too darn lazy to try and come up with a different nick for online usage

My problem was that even the combination of my names is so common that I couldn't get an email account even close to it. (AOL came up with the most unwieldy creation!).
In desperation I went back to the first 45 that I ever bought; it was n°1 in one country and n°2 in another so I took the middle word in one language and the first and last in the other and ran them together.

There are plenty of modern day blacksmiths if you count all of the farriers around in the southwest. There are still plenty of Farrier Schools.

Horseshoes was but one part in the role and services provided by Blacksmiths up through the start of the 20th Century. The Farriers probably have a leg up in "regressing" their skills, but even they are likely to have issues in that respect.

But yeah, all considerations aside. It largely seems to come down in: In the event of an apocalyptic event that causes nearly all high technology to break: Find a knowledgeable blacksmith. Without one of those, you're going to have a rough road to travel.

some young thing objecting to my not wanting to buy her wares

What a shame :D

And now something completely different:
When we are speaking about young things - do anyone of you know what is a price of desperate young thing? And how to sell her self and survive another day?
Those too are thoughts you should have when thinking of surviving apocalypse...

And - blacksmith really is important - when you can turn your back to somebody and don't expect to be shoot or knifed in your back for one small sack of rice ...

Most generators are noisy bastards. Anyone who runs them except for necessary short bursts better be prepared to defend them from gangs.

Depends on the generator, and also depends on where/how the generator was installed. They are noisy, but steps can be taken to mitigate that considerably, to the point of needing to be almost on top of it to even know its running.

For that matter, a clever enough handyman could build a generator if they were so inclined. The most important part is selecting the engine/motor you're going to be using, and car/motorcycle engines can be placed on that menu.

For that matter, a lawnmower engine could be used, but most of those aren't known for being quiet.

Other options are solar cells, although in the EMP scenario, that means having a stack of them sitting in a EM shielded location waiting for use after the fact, and that you're going to have the means to deploy them after the fact.... or you went to the extreme of hardening them from EMP where they were, and added additional protections (like "a deployable wire mesh" as a kind of portable faraday cage) to help shunt most of the energy away from them when the pulse did hit....

If you have a smaller wind turbine, or turbines, on your property, having a spare motor, or set, ready for use (and protected from EMP while stored, so they don't meet the fate of the soviet diesel generator) would be another path. Of course, this also gets into Solar vs Nuclear Weapon EMP event as well. Odds of a disconnected solar cell surviving a Solar EMP may actually be pretty decent. Likewise for a wind turbine, they're only at enhanced risk if they're hooked into a power grid.

Even then, given some of the power protection stuff that exists now, it's entirely possible there are commercial options out there that would do a decent job of protecting most generator equipment from a solar EMP at the least. It may sacrifice itself in the process(and thus need replaced), but the generator itself would still be operational.

Most generators are noisy bastards. Anyone who runs them except for necessary short bursts better be prepared to defend them from gangs

Hilarious story here...
After Hurricane Rita hit east Texas, generators were in short supply. It being Texas, therefore hot, most people were running their generators 24/7 to power their AC. So this one guy in town wakes up one morning and notices that it's kind of warm. He thought hecould hear the generator running, but the AC wasn't. Turns out that somebody had stolen his generator in the middle of the night, but they had left the guy's lawnmower running where the generator had been so that he wouldn't wake up from the sudden change in noise level while they were disconnecting the generator.

Not all criminals are stupid, lol.

Most generators are noisy bastards. Anyone who runs them except for necessary short bursts better be prepared to defend them from gangs. Otherwise, having a generator is a good way to get yourself killed in the first two or three days.

It can work another way. I was up-country in Nigeria in a strange house and without a torch. Early in the morning - it was still dark - I was woken by someone / something trying to force their way through the locked door of my bedroom so I reached for the light but, silence, they had turned off the generator!

Very not nice - my Lagos hotel room had already seen an occupant knifed in his sleep (the stains were still in the carpet and the door wouldn't lock) and I'd had a few disagreements with would-be wallet emptiers in Brasil. Was this to be the end, alone in a blacked-out grubby room in Kaduna?

The noises at the door continued and continued and I was getting more and more nervous. Eventually, lit match in one hand, I flung the door open, straightened the fingers into a jabbing implement, to be confronted by a gang

of cockroaches!

Sometimes it helps to hear a generator!

@LonelyDad
realistically, how do you make electrical transmission products without electricity?

Take the lawnmower (from the post above yours), hook it up to an alternator from a car (presuming that wasn't fried) and you're making electricity.

I've worked in the IT department for an electric utility for 20+ years.

When LonelyDad says transmission products, I assume he's talking 128KV and up electric grid scale equipment (to rebuild the transmission grid).

You aren't going to be smelting industrial quantities of steel (or even mining that much raw iron ore) with the electricity you can make with an alternator and a lawnmower engine.

Take the lawnmower (from the post above yours), hook it up to an alternator from a car (presuming that wasn't fried) and you're making electricity.

In the scenario regarding internal combustion engines, everything related died which includes the alternator. Beyond that your missing the point.

As stated before, modern civilization is built layer upon layer (shells) of previous work. It took centuries to get where we are now and the input from around the world. If we get down to particulars, one could say it's more like millennia starting from scratch.

Picture the entire world shut down. Now consider actual history. There has been very few times where technology regressed. Lets use WW2 for an example here. There were countries in which their technology base was effectively destroyed. The reason they recovered was the rest of the world which wasn't destroyed helped them rebuild.

What would happen if every place on the planet had been destroyed? There would be no help to any one country if in fact any countries survived (which in itself is highly unlikely).

No matter how you slice and dice it, such an event would put the survivors hard pressed to eat, much less rebuild civilization. It would take several generations to do so any way you look at it.

Maybe (okay, almost certainly) not enough to smelt iron. But we were doing that long before electricity was even discovered.

Yes, but not in anywhere near enough quantity to repair wide spread damage to the power grid.

The comment your originally replied to with the comment about generating electricity with an alternator and a lawn mower engine was about the difficulty of building replacement parts for repairing the transmission grid in a world without electricity. A single grid scale transformer ca weigh up to 410 TONS. That weight is mostly steel and copper.

A 16th century blast furnace could produce about 5-10 tons of pig iron a week. Then you need to refine the pig iron into steel. You would be looking at the better part of a year to make enough steel for just one transmission scale transformer.

I don't think the transmission lines themselves would be damaged.

Actually, there is some empirical evidence that they would be damaged. The Soviet EMP K3 Test 184 over Kazakhstan in 1962 provided that information. Specifically the majority of the damage came from dielectric breakdown of the insulators.

We can also look to a solar event on this for further clues. While not a transmission line, the fried telegraph system in the 1859 Carrington event was mostly from the same mechanism.

It can and has happened.

It can and has happened.

The modern US transmission grid overhead lines are mostly bare cable connected to the towers with large insulators which consist of three stacked glass bells.

I'm fairly sure that they will take a hell of a lot more than whatever insulators were being used on the telegraph system, since the Morse telegraph system in the US ran at only a few volts.

fried telegraph system in the 1859 Carrington event was mostly from the same mechanism.

As stated, it was another example of the same mechanism. The empirical example that applies to transmission lines was the Kazakhstan aftermath.

Actually, there is some empirical evidence that they would be damaged. The Soviet EMP K3 Test 184 over Kazakhstan in 1962 provided that information. Specifically the majority of the damage came from dielectric breakdown of the insulators.

We can also look to a solar event on this for further clues. While not a transmission line, the fried telegraph system in the 1859 Carrington event was mostly from the same mechanism.

It can and has happened.

So assuming that "an event" could happen, with presumably devastating results, how much of the globe could/would actually be effected?

As "events" seem to be of extremely short duration, even one originating in space would not last long enough for the earth's rotation to expose the entire globe.

Whilst it is not unusual for a catastrophic event that affects the US to be considered as world shattering (by its inhabitants), in fact it would leave the antipodes of the area affected pretty much unchanged.

Similarly, would an "event" entered on the Indian Ocean really change life in the USA that much?

So assuming that "an event" could happen, with presumably devastating results, how much of the globe could/would actually be effected?

As "events" seem to be of extremely short duration, even one originating in space would not last long enough for the earth's rotation to expose the entire globe.

Whilst it is not unusual for a catastrophic event that affects the US to be considered as world shattering (by its inhabitants), in fact it would leave the antipodes of the area affected pretty much unchanged.

Similarly, would an "event" entered on the Indian Ocean really change life in the USA that much?

Which event are you speaking of? EMP and geomagnetic storms are two distinctly different events with wide variations in results.

The solar/geomagnetic storm event roughly appears to be your intent, but it's not clearly so. I'll assume that for the moment.

To reiterate from a different post;

Picture the entire world shut down. Now consider actual history. There has been very few times where technology regressed. Lets use WW2 for an example here. There were countries in which their technology base was effectively destroyed. The reason they recovered was the rest of the world which wasn't destroyed helped them rebuild.

That applies to some of your post. If any part of the modern world survives intact, recovery time would be dramatically lessened.

As for duration, a couple of places you can get that information;

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/alerts.html

One is US based the other is UK based. There are others like the EU, Japanese, Indian, Russian, etc.

If you research your question, you'll find duration is all over the map and source dependent. A flare is typically short duration but a CME can go on for days.

A lot of people don't understand where or how a solar induced geomagnetic storm gets the energy into the ground to start with. Many envision a straight shot to the ground which is untrue. The missing information is telluric currents.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telluric_current

While I don't generally use wiki for a quote, that particular one is mostly accurate.

During a solar event, the energy enters at the north and south pole cusp.

https://www-spof.gsfc.nasa.gov/Education/wmpause.html

During an energetic solar event, that energy transferred/induced into the earth super charges the naturally occurring telluric currents. Those in turn are diurnal traveling towards the equator by day, and towards the poles at night.

Effectively, a geomagnetic storm is a bottom up event as a result. The electric grid is hit from the earth, not the sky.

EMP/NEMP is a different beast.

The first two components of one are in fact from the sky. The remaining two components are from locally induced currents in the ground.

EMP/NEMP is a different beast.

The first two components of one are in fact from the sky. The remaining two components are from locally induced currents in the ground.

Let's assume that EMP is the result of a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere/near space, and that NEMP is from a ground or low elevation nuclear event. In either case, the results are somewhat localized, so that unless a super-critical resource is withing the area of effect, there will not be the catastrophic result that a CME can produce. Even if the aggressor went to the extent of carpeting the Northeast, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, and the West Coast with enough EMP-enhanced nuclear explosions, the rest of the world would retain enough expertise to fill in the gap over time. The geopolitical results would be interesting, but civilization wouldn't crash. Maybe shudder and shake some, but not crash.
On the other hand, a major CME will result in most of the world returning to a late 18th, early 19th level of existence. There should be enough hard copy knowledge, and hopefully some personal experience, available that most things will not have to be reinvented, just rebuilt, which will be a hard enough task.

In context of this thread, all EMP versions are nuclear based.

Let us define it a bit better. There are two primary versions of a nuclear based EMP;
1. NEMP - Nuclear electromagnetic pulse, think atmospheric nuclear explosion.
2. HEMP - High altitude electromagnetic pulse, think edge of space/Kármán line nuclear explosion.

Starfish Prime was a NEMP. The Soviet Test 184 was a HEMP. The HEMP version does far more damage over a much broader area.

Two well placed HEMP devices could take out the US grid. It would take a dozen or more NEMP devices to do the same. The reason for this is the E3, and E3 heave components of the HEMP.

An analogy;
https://youtu.be/Pot-S4koghk

Watch that video, and in particular the 8-12 second time at the point of impact. Some water is ejected, but the pool of water pushed out by the pebble rushes back in symmetrically. During a HEMP blast, the explosion very briefly about blast/heaves a bulge/hole in the local area magnetosphere. The lines of force rush back in to fill the gap. As in the video analogy, those magnetic field lines induce current in the earth mimicking a solar geomagnetic storm.

All that said, I can definitely pick up some preconceptions in your post. It's not uncommon given the proliferation of doom merchants in print and online. What I suggest is to research your position directly rather than rely on hearsay from anyone. I've done my own homework (extensively so) on this subject.

The solar/geomagnetic storm event roughly appears to be your intent, but it's not clearly so. I'll assume that for the moment.

Actually I chose "the event" so as to include any/all causes/sources.

As you focused on the solar type and previous posts have referenced the 1859 Carrington event, it should be noted that even a brief study of that event shows that the effects were limited in terms of areas affected and indeed the areas from which it could be observed/detected.

You then reiterated from a different post;

Picture the entire world shut down. Etc etc.

Let's NOT picture, let's first determine if it is likely that "an event" could actually affect the entire globe. It seems it can't.

Let's NOT picture, let's first determine if it is likely that "an event" could actually affect the entire globe. It seems it can't.

There you would be wrong. The entire globe can in fact be affected. There is evidence in ice and soil cores to the effect that it's already been hit on more than one occasion.

One constant involved in solar events is a deluge of solar originated charged particles/radiation. For instance, cosmic spallation of oxygen and nitrogen atoms in the upper atmosphere creates the Beryllium-10 (10Be) isotope which has a half-life of 1.39 × 10^6 years.

That particular isotope is also heavier than air, and as a result, falls to the earth. It and several hundred other isotopes created by cosmic spallation effectively gives us a history of such events written in ice, dirt, and stone.

Your cursory dismissal does nothing to change scientific/historical fact.

Everything I've stated in this thread is independently verifiable. If you chose not to believe there isn't much I or anyone else can do about that. Please research it for yourself, the results will be enlightening.

That particular isotope is also heavier than air, and as a result, falls to the earth. It and several hundred other isotopes created by cosmic spallation effectively gives us a history of such events written in ice, dirt, and stone.

My apologies, I presumed we were still taking about an "event" that would deprive the entire world of electricity.

Your cursory dismissal does nothing to change scientific/historical fact.

A question isn't a dismissal. I simply don't see the point in assuming a world without electricity without first determining if in fact an event could achieve that on a global scale. As yet I've read nothing that makes that likely.

I presumed we were still taking about an "event" that would deprive the entire world of electricity.

My comments regarding 10Be were just that. That isotope provides a record of space weather over thousands of years. Other shorter half life isotopes combined with it have been sufficient to accurately map solar cycles for just under a thousand years.

In the last century, the means to confirm all that have become available.

Geomagnetic storms of the nature and strength that can take out the world's grid have been recorded. The most recent of which was in 1859. We have been lucky not to have been hit again since then. Luck doesn't hold for eternity.

Geomagnetic storms of the nature and strength that can take out the world's grid have been recorded. The most recent of which was in 1859.

Geomagnetic storms of the nature and strength that some scientists believe can take out the world's grid have been recorded.

FTFY.

Do they have estimates of induced current? How many amps at what voltages? Without that information, they couldn't even begin to come up with remotely realistic estimates for how much damage would be done to the power grid.

Do they have estimates of induced current? How many amps at what voltages? Without that information, they couldn't even begin to come up with remotely realistic estimates for how much damage would be done to the power grid

.

They do. Southwest and Oak Ridge labs did just that.

ETA

https://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus-act/reliability/cybersecurity/ferc_executive_summary.pdf

That particular link is an executive summary regarding EMP. You have to dig out the Metatech/ORNL reports it was based upon to get the specific numbers, of which, the 1859 event was covered even though it was not an EMP. I've got all of them, but I've found it better to let the people questioning me go find it and read it for themselves. They tend to believe it then.

I've looked at your link and several of the ancillary reports. The are long on computer simulations which highly vulnerable to researcher assumptions not applicable to the real world, and short on real numbers.

Only one of the input reports has any real numbers on magnitude of induced currents from a geo magnetic storm. And that has nothing to do with the geo magnetic storm reconstructions from the mentioned isotope data. It's about a single event that caused a collapse of the Hydro Quebec grid in 1989

And there it doesn't mention the amp and voltage data from the induced earth currents, but talks about 5 amp disturbances in a 735kv transformer. Circuit breakers for those kinds of voltages have amp ratings on the order of 4000 amps. That makes me skeptical that a 5 amp disturbance could damage a 735KV transformer.

And in point of fact Hydro Quebec managed to restore 83% of their base load in just 11 hours. Again, does not support the idea of such an event doing permanent damage requiring outright replacement of large numbers of devices.

Neither the summary at the link nor any of the reports it cites put forward real solid evidence to support the idea that such events will to permanent damage to modern transmission scale equipment.

Nor do the reports support your claims of a single event having global impact.

I've been reading through it all again to make sure I wasn't in error, I already know I am not. I'll finish it in a couple of more days, but given you replied the same day, there is no possible way you've read or studied the ORNL reports. Not unless you happen to be on par with Howard Berg (Guinness world record holder).

This is exactly what I was talking about when I said;

Nope. This is not the first time I've discussed this in a forum. Not even the tenth or the thirtieth. In every case when I feed the answers to people, those same people threw out varying degrees of innuendo and attacks. Apparently without even bothering to read it for themselves. As a result, if they can't be bothered to research it for themselves and read the results, I can't be bothered to spoon feed them.

If you can't be bothered with it, or it simply challenges your preconceptions, there is nothing more nor any evidence anywhere that will convince you otherwise.

there is no possible way you've read or studied the ORNL reports. Not unless you happen to be on par with Howard Berg (Guinness world record holder).

The report you actually linked to was only 6 pages.

It cites 6 additional reports. 4 of them are clearly by their titles focused on Nuclear events, which I'm not interested in. 1 was not that clear but still seemed to have a nuclear focus.

The remaining document "Geomagnetic Storms and Their Impacts on the U.S. Power Grid (Meta-R-319), John Kappenman, Metatech Corporation, January 2010." I did look up and take a look at.

No, I did not read the entire document. I did read sections of it. I also tried to search and skim the document looking for references to voltage and amperage data. I didn't find much in the way of real world (not computer simulation) data outside of the Hydro Quebec event.

And what happens when a BIG magnetic field passes through a big coil of wire? A big induced voltage that results in a big temperature spike, that melts things.

Uhhh, no.
You don't understand the interaction of voltage, current and resistance.
The induced voltage doesn't cause a current in a coil of wire somewhere stored in a warehouse. You need a current to cause a temperature change.
To melt a coil of wire you need a high enough current flowing long enough to rise its temperature above the melting point. The shorter the time span the higher the current required.

HM.

Yes, it would. But whether human nature would allow us to do so is the biggest issue.

Agreed.

A novel isn't a reference book. Quoting from one, or paraphrasing, isn't really advancing facts. That said, it shouldn't surprise anyone that "some people were looking forward to the end of the current civilization" There are a number of death cults that believe and/or celebrate 'the rapture' or 'second coming'.

A lot depends on whether the rebuilding is being done as a group effort by survivors, or a surviving group looking to profit from the other survivors.

Altruism isn't known for time and motion studies, or production bonuses.

"Sure, don't worry about this place. Grow up as peasants, so your children will fear a thunder god. Peasants always have a thunder god. But remember, we used to control the lightning!"

The reality would more accurately be, "we used too pay a fortune to use a little lightening."

One would hope that in rebuilding there would be a lot less consideration for maximising profits and exploitation.

Which takes us back to human nature. Unless a global catastrophe ended both religion and pork-barrel politics, it's back to square one. Again.