Chapter 10: The Hike

Dexter looked down at the map and then around at the parking lot. The trail clearly started from this parking lot. It took him a moment to spot the sign denoting the trail head. Supposedly, the trail went straight to a small pond, and then around it. The trail was listed as being three and a half miles in length, and of ‘moderate’ difficulty. He figured that a short hike like that would be simple enough.

Pointing to the trail head, Dexter said, “There it is.”

The sign had the trail name on it, the distance of the trail, the difficulty (medium), and a simplified map of the trail. They had chosen the trail based on its length. The ‘easy’ trail was actually a mile longer.

Sarah said, “It seems simple enough.”

“Let’s go,” Will said.

Will had been looking forward to this hike. He wanted to report back to his friends what it was really like to hike across country. In the computer games they played, it was just a matter of making sure that every player’s avatar was in good health, and had enough stamina points. He figured he would be able to pick up some tricks that might be useful in playing the game.

Dexter asked, “Has everyone got their bottles of water?”

“Yep.”

“You bet.”

“Shoes?” Dexter asked. He was wearing the shoes he normally wore to the gym.

“Sneakers.”

“I’ve got my sneakers on,” Will said.

Dexter looked at the kids making sure everyone had hats. He patted his pockets to check that he had a small bottle of sun block. He couldn’t think of anything else that he needed to bring with him.

“Let’s go,” Dexter said.

The trio walked down the well marked trail. There was finely crushed gravel that made the trail smooth. The first quarter of a mile was nice and flat. They were surrounded by trees that kept the wind out. They walked along at a brisk pace, not really talking all that much. They did pause occasionally, to take time to appreciate the natural setting.

The trail then began to head downwards. The grade was moderate, but it wasn’t all that bad. The surroundings dropped off at a steeper grade, but the path was at an angle to the downward slope. The trio trudged along, pausing occasionally to look down the side of the trail. The trees didn’t allow them to see how far down the side went.

Dexter said, “Watch your step. It would be horrible to slip down the hill.”

“No problem,” Will replied.

Dexter said, “We might want to turn around and head back.”

“Why?” Sarah asked.

“It’s getting kind of steep. It’s going to be kind of a tough climb, coming back,” Dexter said looking back up the trail.

“It’ll be no problem,” Will said.

“We can handle it,” Sarah said.

“If you’re sure,” Dexter said doubtfully.

“We’re sure,” Will said.

They walked further. The grade downwards got a little steeper. Now there were little areas where parts of the trail had been eroded away by water running down the slope. It made walking the trail just a little more difficult. The crushed gravel disappeared in places, but they could see the trail pickup beyond those points.

Dexter said, “We’re lucky it isn’t going to rain today. I think this would be a little dangerous in the rain.”

“I don’t think it would be that bad,” Will said.

Sarah said, “I’d hate to get my feet wet.”

Dexter stopped. He realized this was a good time to talk a little about wilderness survival. This looked like a little thing, but it could get out of control, very easily.

Dexter said, “The problem isn’t getting your feet wet. If you look uphill, you’ll see that it’s pretty steep here.”

“So?” Will asked.

Dexter said, “The water would be running past here at a pretty good clip. The dirt would turn into mud, making it slippery as hell. I doubt you would be able to cross without falling down the hill. With the rushing water, you might not be able to stop until you reached the bottom. By that time, you’d be all banged up. You might even have broken bones.”

“It’s just a little section of the trail. It couldn’t get that bad,” Will said.

“It might look little, but those kinds of things are what can kill you out here,” Dexter said.

Sarah asked, “Is it supposed to rain today?”

“No,” Dexter answered.

“Then why worry about it?” Will asked.

Dexter said, “It’s about learning the lay of the land. Right now, this isn’t a big deal. If we decided to go hiking on a day where it might rain, we’d know to avoid this trail. Last night around the campfire, we talked a little about survival in the wilderness and how there are all kinds of wildernesses out there.

“Look at this as a metaphor. When times are good, there are places where you can spot potential trouble areas; knowing that when times are bad, they can result in disaster. That gives you the opportunity to avoid them when troubled times are on the horizon. You won’t be caught between a spot downhill and the car.

“Likewise, you can use this time to look for safe havens so that if things don’t work out, then you’ll have a safe place to weather the storm. That’s all part of that ‘survival mindset’ that I talked about. The time to start thinking about surviving, is before things go to hell.”

“I get it,” Will said. “It’s like in Cave Explorer where you have to decide what kind of weapon to carry so that you’ll be able to fight off the monsters without losing the advantage of first strike.”

“I guess,” Dexter said not appreciating the analogy.

Will asked, “So how does this apply to ... I don’t know ... the workplace?”

Dexter thought for a moment before answering, “Suppose the company you work for has a 401K plan...”

“What’s a 401K plan?” Sarah asked.

Dexter answered, “It’s like a savings account where you put money into it out of your paycheck. While the money is in the account, it’s being invested and, hopefully, increases in value at a better rate than a regular savings account. The thing is that you can’t touch the money until you retire. You don’t pay taxes on it until you take the money out of the fund. Now that’s a good deal because you’re making a lot of money when you put it into the fund so the taxes would have been high, but you’re not making a lot of money when you take it out, so the taxes are low.”

“So it’s a retirement thing,” Will said.

“Right,” Dexter said.

“So how is that dangerous?” Will asked.

Dexter said, “It sometimes happens that the company puts that money into a fund that reinvests that money in the company. It’s kind of like this spot right here. Everything is okay, but it could become bad very quickly.”

“How?” Will asked.

Dexter answered, “While the company is doing well, having your retirement money invested in it, is not a problem. That’s the sunny day. The problem comes when the company starts having problems. First it starts with rumors – like thunder in the distance. Nothing is really obviously wrong. Suddenly, stock that was selling at eighty dollars a share is now sixty dollars a share. If your fund had four hundred thousand dollars in it, it has suddenly become worth three hundred thousand. You’ve lost a hundred thousand dollars of your retirement money.”

“That’s not good,” Will said.

“Then the bad news gets officially announced that the company is having problems. If the company is really in trouble, the stock drops a little more. Now a share is worth forty dollars and you’re down to two hundred thousand in it. So at this point, you’ve lost half of your retirement money, but you still have a job. At this point, you’ve slipped, but you aren’t sliding down the hill yet.”

“It gets worse?” Will asked.

“How can it get worse?” Sarah asked.

“Now the problems really start manifesting themselves. The company is losing money, so you get laid off. The stock drops some more. Now it’s worth about twenty dollars a share. Your retirement account is worth only a hundred thousand and you’re out of a job,” Dexter said.

“I guess a hundred thousand is still a lot of money,” Will said.