Chapter 65: Fourth of July

July 1, 1983, Chicago, Illinois

On Friday, at work, I reviewed my gold and silver positions. There had been a slight uptick overnight, and indicators were pointing to closing out the positions, even though neither gold nor silver was quite at my target price. What gave me pause was that Monday had no trading. The question was, should I hold out for my target or lock in the profits? I decided I didn't need to be greedy, so I called Mr. Steinem and asked him to close out my positions.

"Done," he said. "Should I expect a call from Murray?"

"No, he's holding for a much lower price."

"Realistic?"

"Probably, but I don't have the same risk profile he has. Thanks for the assist."

"You know my number when you need me again!"

I checked my terminal, saw the trade, and plugged the numbers into my spreadsheet. I'd given up about 3% of my target profit, but that still left me with a solid gain, and I put my projected annual return at just over 30%, which, according to my rough estimate, should beat the S&P by about seven percentage points.

I completed my morning analyst report and turned it in, then spent some time on my research on Soviet trade. The more I read, the less I felt there was any benefit to developing a relationship with anyone or even meeting the Trade Attaché. Maybe if something changed, their natural resources could pay off, but the Cold War was 'heating up' thanks to the hardcore anti-communist stances taken by Reagan and Thatcher, cheered on by the Polish Pope.

I wasn't surprised when, just after 8:00am, Murray Matheson asked to see me.

"Lost your nerve?" he asked.

"Not at all. With no trading on Monday and within 3% of my target, I decided to pull the trigger. I think you can keep your end-of-the-year target."

"You've made some ballsy calls, why not on this one?"

"I locked in solid profits, and I have cash to make another play."

"What are you thinking?"

"Today? Keeping my powder dry until after the Fourth. I plan to start looking into Savings & Loans and the banks who back them."

"What's going on there?"

"I'm not sure yet, but a friend of mine who works at Continental Illinois said there's serious concern about non-performing loans. I was about to begin researching to see if I could find any references or any other information. All I have right now is a comment made Tuesday night. I'll let you know what I turn up."

"Thanks, Kane. I don't think you made a mistake based on your priorities and the amount of risk you can take at this point. Just don't become too trigger-happy. And don't become gun shy."

"As Sun Tzu said, 'Ponder and deliberate before you make a move'. But, he also counseled that 'Opportunities multiply as they are seized'."

"You've read Sun Tzu. That's good. What else did you learn that's applicable to FX?"

"Thinking about the currency moves earlier this year, I'd say 'Victory comes from finding opportunities in problems' and 'In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity' both apply."

"You've done well so far, Kane, and you're doing all the right things. Your daily analyst reports are the best I've seen — concise, to the point, and accurate. You haven't provided any bad advice."

"Thanks."

"Keep it up! There is literally no limit to the upside except your balls and your brains."

"Used in the correct ratio," I countered.

"Figure out the precise ratio, and you'll make more money than you can possibly imagine."

"I have a pretty good imagination!" I chuckled.

"That helps as well! Go find some opportunities to make some serious money!"

"On it!" I declared.

"Hang on a sec," he said. "Before you go, what are you doing about the Ruskies?

"A dead-end, I think, given the deepening of the Cold War and the hot proxy wars in Africa and Central America."

"I'd say that's right. Where's the next serious hotspot?"

"You just said my daily analysis is the best you've seen, so you know what it is!"

"Grenada? A speck of dirt in the Caribbean?"

"Where the Soviets could, according to President Reagan, land long-range bombers, as I noted in my report. The Bishop government claims the runway is for tourism, and at 9,000 feet, that argument is plausible, as I noted, given the minimum runway length for takeoff for a typically loaded 747 is about 8,000 feet at sea level and in good weather conditions.

"Also, as I noted, Congressman Ron Dellums said, and I quote, 'It is my thought that it is absurd, patronizing, and totally unwarranted for the United States government to charge that this airport poses a military threat'. That comment has to be taken in the context of his political views. His statement might well be self-serving, as Reagan's is, and as such, I suggest the President wins that contest."

"When?"

"I don't have a crystal ball nor any insight into CIA, NSA, or DoD analyses, so I'm not sure what is going to happen, but something will. I suspect if the Soviets tried to militarize the island, that would cause a 'quarantine' similar to Cuba during the Missile Crisis. The fact that Cuba is involved in constructing the runway might be enough to trigger some kind of military move on its own, again, a blockade or quarantine being most likely."

"So, no invasion?"

"I don't know how to calculate the odds on that with the information I have or can reasonably obtain. And if it happens, the most likely outcome is a quick occupation, and other than momentary blips in precious metals, nothing changes given the Monroe Doctrine would be trotted out as an excuse for us to interfere, again, where we reject any other interference."

"Nicaragua?"

"As I noted in my report, it's a question of how much support the US will provide to «Fuerza Democrática Nicaragüense». I don't see any likelihood of involvement beyond money, matériel, and advisors. Of course, I'm positive that's what some analyst said in 1963 about Viet Nam."

Mr. Matheson laughed, "I'd bet you're right."

"I also think we learned our lesson from that and the Bay of Pigs, and so we'll fund and supply the anti-Sandinista forces but not commit any combat assets. I wrote that in my report as well."

Mr. Matheson laughed again, "I do read them every single day and don't skim. One thing you'll discover is that what people put in writing and what they say might be very close to the same thing, but you can discern what they really believe by their body language and tone of voice."

"Any discrepancy?"

"No. You're a straight shooter, and you hedge your statements based on solid analysis. The struggle, always, as we've discussed, is the need to be right and the need to be first. You have to be both or you lose. What's your current projected rate of return?"

"About 30%, which would beat the projected S&P return by seven percentage points or so."

"Respectable for anyone; excellent for someone fairly green. Keep it up. Now, go find a way to make some serious money!"

I left his office and returned to my desk to begin my research into Savings & Loans, locating seven articles in various periodicals which discussed the potential threats to their liquidity and their balance sheets. There would be some short opportunities, but the timing would be tricky. That meant tracking relevant details from their quarterly reports and also paying attention to foreclosure rates and other data, which would indicate trouble for the 'Thrifts'.

"I need a spreadsheet," I said to Bianca when we were at lunch together in the break room.

I explained what I was looking for and the metrics I wanted to use, and she made some notes on a napkin and promised to get me something by the end of the following week, given she was fully occupied with developing the analysis programs we'd discussed. I was positive they'd provide us with exactly the edge we'd need to be 'right and first' more than our competition.

After lunch, Bianca and I went to the gym to work out, then returned to the office. Late in the afternoon, I went to Personnel to set up my 401K contributions, which I set to the maximum, as Spurgeon would match dollar for dollar up to 10% of my income. That accomplished, I went back to my desk to finish out the day.

Bianca and I met Jack in the lobby just after 5:00pm, and the three of us headed home for what would be a three-day weekend. At home, I spent some time with Keiko, then Jack, Kristy, CeCi, and I left for dinner at Italian Village and then saw Stroker Ace, a comedy about stock car racing starring Burt Reynolds, Jim Nabors, and Loni Anderson.

"Jennifer or Bailey?" CeCi asked after the movie.

"A dangerous question if I've ever heard one," I replied with a grin, "given you're blonde like Loni Anderson!"

"Equally for me," Jack said with a grin, "given Kristy has dark hair!"

"Which says you two disagree!" Kristy observed with a smile. "Jonathan prefers Jan Smithers, and Jack prefers Loni Anderson!"

"What did you think of the movie?" I asked.

"It was funny," Kristy replied, "though I suspect if any of us were fans of stock car racing, it would have been funnier."

"There were some cameos from actual drivers," Jack noted. "The only one I recognized is Cale Yarborough because, strangely enough, I met him a few years ago through a cousin in Georgia."

"Ice cream?" Kristy suggested.

"I don't believe anyone in this group will turn it down!"

We stopped at Oberweis, and after we finished our ice cream, we headed home.

"I'd like you to spend the night," CeCi said when we arrived at the house. "I'd like a last time with you, just you and me, please. I know Keiko is OK with it, and I also know there aren't likely to be many opportunities because the rings could arrive at any time."

All valid points, and all fit with what Keiko had said, but I was reluctant to make that decision on my own.

"Let me have a quick chat with Keiko, OK?"

"Yes."

I went to the master bedroom, which Keiko and I now shared, and found her reading in bed. I walked over and gave her a kiss.

"CeCi requested a 'last time' and invited me to spend the night with her," I said.

"Deanna is going to ask for the same thing for Tuesday night. I told her she had to ask you, but I had no objections. You know you're free until we exchange rings."

"There's 'free' and then there's 'free'," I replied.

"May I provide a Jonathan-style analysis?" Keiko asked.

I chuckled, "This ought to be interesting! Go ahead."

"Both of them expected to be able to sleep with you for at least two more years, possibly longer, and neither of them has complained nor objected to the abrupt change in those plans. And while you didn't promise, there was an implied promise, especially given your insistence that you were not going to commit to anyone before your twenty-first birthday and probably not immediately after, either. So, from that perspective, allowing them each a 'last night' is appropriate, from a relationship perspective."

"A reward for 'good behavior'?" I asked. "Theirs, I mean."

"I'd say it's allowing that part of the relationship to end on a positive note. My opinion is that you aren't violating any commitments or harming me in any way. I became involved with you to, and I'll simply say it bluntly — be expertly fucked and have an amazing first time. As I said, neither of us planned for what happened, either with how we came to feel about each other or my diagnosis. I had no objections to sharing you with other girls because I'm neither jealous nor controlling."

"But after marriage?" I asked with a smirk.

Keiko laughed, "Acceptance only goes so far! I know you're teasing, of course, but there is a fundamental difference between sharing my husband and sharing a guy with whom none of us had a committed relationship. Sleep with CeCi; well, you probably won't sleep much, but you know what I mean!"

"You're sure, Keiko-chan?"

"Get it now or never," she said with a soft laugh.

I kissed her, then went to CeCi's room.

"She agreed?" CeCi asked.

"Yes, which I'm going to guess you were sure was the case because you asked her before I arrived home."

"Busted," CeCi replied with a smile. "Will you do something for me?"

"What's that?"

"Fuck my brains out, then after that, just slow and sweet until you can't go anymore?"

"I'll do my best!"

July 2, 1983, Chicago, Illinois

"Thank you for a wonderful night," CeCi said when we woke up on Saturday morning. "Got one more in you?"

I chuckled, "You mean in you!"

"Obviously!"

"Hard or soft?"

"Soft, please."

We had a slow, passionate, sexy screw, then showered together in the communal bathroom across from her room. After the shower, I went to my room to get clean clothes, finding Keiko propped in bed reading.

"Morning," I said, going over to her and giving her a kiss.

"Morning! Are you and Bianca going shopping?"

"Yes. After breakfast. We'll make our attempt to order a baby sometime during the afternoon."

"OK. Your mom arrives today, right?"

"Yes. She expects to be at Violet's around 4:00pm, and I plan to be there to meet her. She'll come to the house tomorrow for the party and bring Violet with her. I'm having dinner with Violet and my mom at Violet's house tonight, but I'll be home by 8:30pm to spend time with you."

"I'm looking forward to meeting your mom!"

"And she's looking forward to meeting the girl who captured my heart!"

"For a logical, analytical, emotionless guy, you're awfully emotional about that!"

"I'm going to assume that is an observation, not a complaint!"

"True!" Keiko declared. "Neither of us is overly emotional; it's just a very different side of you. I suspect you're very different around Heather, too."

"That's because I was scared shitless!" I chuckled. "I got over it, at least partly, but without Violet, I'd have been completely lost and completely insecure in Kansas City."

"And when you and Bianca have a baby?"

"Same reaction, but I'll adjust and be as loving a dad as I can possibly be. I'll have to make it up as I go along because I don't exactly have a role model to follow. Well, that's not true — your grandfather's approach seems awesome, and I'll ask him for advice."

Keiko laughed softly. "The ultra-conservative Japanese man who would be scandalized if he knew about what actually went on in this house!"

"Yeah, well, I think most dads of girls would be!" I chuckled. "Ask me again about it if I have a daughter who turns thirteen or so!"

"I can't see you having a double standard, though I wouldn't want to be a boy who disrespected your daughter!"

"The one time I might actually contemplate initiating violence!" I chuckled.

"Like most dads! Get dressed, and we can have breakfast."

I dressed, and we went downstairs to eat and the rest of the day progressed exactly as I'd described to Keiko, and I walked into Violet's house about fifteen minutes before my mom's planned arrival time.

"How is Keiko?" Violet asked.

"I think I'll say she's doing well, though obviously she has more chemo coming up."

"How are you?"

"Fine," I replied. "I'm cautiously optimistic, but not ignoring the possible negative outcomes."

"I don't understand how you can say that so calmly and coldly."

"I'm not unfeeling or uncaring," I replied. "But facts are facts, and acknowledging them is the first step to formulating a plan. We have one, and while Keiko's results aren't the best possible, they're also not the worst possible. As for outcomes, it would be foolish to not acknowledge them, even if we don't like them."

"It's just ... well, no, I guess that's how you've always been since I met you. Sometimes, it's hard to tell if you're happy or not."

"I'm happy most of the time," I replied. "And I'm certainly happy you're my friend and that we can spend time together."

"Me, too!"

The doorbell rang, and Violet went to answer it, and a moment later, returned with my mom, who was carrying a small suitcase.

"Hi, Mom!" I said. "I'll take your bag up to your room."

"What?! No hug for your mom?!"

I laughed, hugged her, then took her bag up to the guest room and returned downstairs.

"Violet will bring you to the house tomorrow around 11:00am," I said. "She'll bring you back here when the cookout ends. You'll take the L to Wrigley Field on Monday morning, then we'll go to Grant Park as a group afterwards. I'm going to park my car in the delivery area of the tailor shop so I can bring you both here after the fireworks."

"That sounds fine to me," Mom said.

"Good. Then you relax, and Violet and I will make dinner."

"I'll come sit in the kitchen so we can chat, if that's OK."

"It is."

We had a good three-way chat while Violet and I were making dinner, and after we ate, I helped Violet clean up, declining help from my mom. I didn't stay late, as I'd promised Keiko I'd be home early, so just after 8:00pm, I said 'good night' and headed home.

July 3, 1983, Chicago, Illinois

Sunday morning was busy setting up for the cookout, and my housemates and I agreed that the house would basically be off-limits except for using the bathroom to limit Keiko's exposure to the group of about thirty-five people who would be there. She would come outside to spend some time, but she and I would eat inside so she didn't have to remove her mask in proximity to all those people in the backyard.

My mom and Violet arrived a bit early, and after I introduced my mom to Keiko, my mom asked if I had time to take a walk so we could talk. I checked with Jack and Bianca to ensure there was nothing I needed to do, and then, with Keiko's blessing, my mom and I left.

"I doubt what I'm going to say will come as a surprise to you, but Violet is in love with you."

"I know," I replied. "I love her, too. There's an impediment which cannot be overcome despite my best efforts and patience. Unfortunately, I can't share anything else about the situation."