@fool42
the geological record indicated that the planet had enjoyed 200-300 years of very mild weather. [Roughly coinciding with the industrial revolution.] However, the trending data suggested that the planetary weather patterns were returning to a more "normal" planetary pattern. What that "normal" included was more extreme and chaotic weather. He speculated that this would have major impact on food production as current agricultural regions might not be sustainable for that use.
One of the hardest things to grasp in science is the shear magnitude of things in nature. In contrast, humanity can have a significant influence on local ecologies but the larger influence to the whole planet is essentially beneath notice. One volcanic eruption puts more garbage into the atmosphere than all of humanity in a year or more. And the planet recovers from that quite nicely.
THIS! So Much THIS!!!
My parents paid for me to attend a very good (if occasionally resource stretched) Private Catholic School c.1975-79. Our teachers were remarkable, one, a Nun had participated in research on the Dead Sea Scrolls immediately after her time in the University (Grad Students are practically "slave labor" but sometimes learn quite a bit), our History/Social Studies teacher was a Veteran of combat in Vietnam, and quite creative, using College level interactive scenarios, and our Ecology teacher had participated in some recent Field Studies that coincide with what Fool42's Professor taught! We read Erlich's "The Population Bomb" then wrote papers about flaws and fallacies already obvious by 1978/79.
We moved and I attended Mercer Island HS, though "public" it is effectively an Elite "Private" HS, some of our teachers were tops in their fields, some with PhDs, and could have taught at Universities (I believe their salaries were comparable). We were taught that the "Coming Ice Age" was a fallacy, and so too the emerging "Global Warming" We were also taught about the pollution in the LA Basin in the 1960's and 70's in particular, and the emerging successes in reducing human pollution. We learned about Love Canal, and the rivers back east where the Polluted Water Burned! Etc. We were taught about the Need to reduce human impacts on the environment, as well as the Hubris of thinking Humanity could have as much effect as the Sun! Then Mt. St. Hellens Erupted!
Later, after my first years in the Army, I took a Geology class in the early 90's where we went to the environs of Mt. St. Hellens, up as far as New Crater Lake to see the forming dome. It was obvious that the "Dire Predictions" that the area "would Never Recover for Hundreds of Years!!! Made some 15 years before were Wildly pessimistic. Vegetation was rapidly expanding, even evergreen trees that had sprouted, some mere months after the first eruption.
On the Yakima Training Center, I have seen the effects of the volcanic ash upon the Desert there. Between the 1970's when I first saw the area (on my way with my class to the Observatory at Goldendale) using our telescopes during a "bathroom break" we (guys) were mostly watching the tanks and soldiers, but also the Desert compared to rainy Western Washington. By the mid-1990's the YTC was much "greener" and still is. It's not Western Washington, but the volcanic ash that had choked out so much of an already desolate area (compared to the areas in the Yakima Valley that got more rain, and importantly Irrigation.
Computer models. They are a crock-. Not a single touted weather model over the last 30 years has proven to be accurate. The reason for this is simple; there are too many variables than can be accounted for in any computer model. Thus, all computer models are based on a set of assumptions over what is important and what is not important to the system being modeled. In all cased what you get is a "WAG." It gives a scientist something to publish or to talk about at some symposium of his peers, but nothing more. In fact, predicting weather turned out to be so difficult to do (even with super computers) that a whole new field of math was invented to compensate for the uncountable variables that had to be considered. It was called "Chaos Theory." And they only increased their prediction accuracy by a day or two.
So, the only ones to benefit over all of the climate foofaraw, are the politicians who imitate Chicken Little to grab more political power.
I Believe In Science! (I also believe in God, which is not a contradiction, at least to people much smarter and wiser than I.) I read quite a bit, and though I am a "Man Without Letters" I have taken and passed quite a few University and College classes. Also, thanks to the US Army I have traveled widely and seen other lands, in Central and South America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Witnessed primitive land clearing by "Slash & Burn" pollution just dumped onto the ground, or into the streams and rivers (that People Drink from!); exposed to where people burn garbage, tires, and human waste mere meters from homes, schools, or the side of the road.
There is Much we need to, can, and should do to reduce pollution, and improve the environment.
However, I reiterate:
So, the only ones to benefit over all of the climate foofaraw, are the politicians and Others who imitate Chicken Little to grab more political power.
Many so called "solutions to manmade climate change" etc. are actually Worse for the Environment! 10% Ethanol in gas Causes More Pollution; because of lover MPG, and since it can't be shipped by pipelines (current networks) it must be trucked. Not to mention the fuel and fertilizer to grow the corn for ethanol!
Well connected "Interests" who own significant railroads and tanker cars, who back Anti-Pipeline "Environmentalist" groups. Or who own other Energy assets (Petroleum, as well as "alternates" Al Gore) who fund Anti-Nuclear "Environmentalist" groups...
I believe many "grassroots activists" are sincere Mistaken, ignorant, or Mal-informed, but "True Believers!"
Then there are those who Pontificate that WE must make "Sacrifices" and shutdown power plants, and enact Laws They Don't adhere to or can Afford to get around, because the "COST of ENERGY MUST NECESSARILY SKYROCKET!"
In short: Is the climate changing? Yes. Did humanity cause it? NO! Can man stop climate change and maintain the status quo? NO!
Excellent Post Fool42!
