Anyone have experience writing 'prophecies'?
One project I've had in progress for a very long time, this is one of the sticking points. The whole premise revolves around a central apocalyptic prophecy (which is universally incorrectly interpreted).
The problem is, I'm not sure I've ever seen any sort of reference to how to write a cryptic prophecy...
So, anyone who's done it, any insights?
Anyone have experience writing 'prophecies'?
I've a certain amount of experience in the field of superpredictors, but it doesn't sound as though that would be of much use to you.
Nostradamus was good at cryptic prophecies - perhaps look at his work and work backwards.
AJ
There are a lot of people around who write prophecies, but they aren't cryptic or not what I think of a good.
Nostradamus was the last one who was good at cryptic prophecies that I can think of.
Several religious text have detailed examples, but I'd have to go with Nostradamus as well if your looking for more cryptic variants as an example.
bk69's idea is a good one. If your prophecy is truly of the apocalyptic sort, you might turn to good scholarly commentaries on Daniel, Revelation and/or Enoch. God knows those books have had numerous, mostly incorrect interpretations over the years.
Anyone have experience writing 'prophecies'?
No, but a great many times I have made "predictions" that came amazingly close to reality.
In 1998-1999 I remember when people asked me if they should buy a "Y2K kit", that they should do it. Not that I believed anything would happen (I knew it would not), but because we lived in Southern California, which is Earthquake Country. And I believe everybody should have an Earthquake Kit, and they are the same thing.
And for over 20 years now I have been saying we were overdue for a major epidemic, and it would be pure chaos when it hit. And when this first started, I told those that would listen that it would have from 3-5 waves, where numbers would go down, then spike all over again. And I also stated the virus would likely come from either China, Philippines, or Africa and would be viral in source. And most simply laughed at me whenever I would say this.
All of which is not magic, but simply looking at the history of pandemics in the past (specifically the Spanish Influenza). This is really the first major global pandemic in a century, and unlike the era before inoculations we as a society have forgotten how to handle it. But at least this one is not as bad, as we are not having to dig mass graves like the last time.
And I still predict we will have another major pandemic in the future (within 50 years). The human population is much larger than the planet can really support, and disease is one of the major systems that nature uses to "thin the heard".
And with less than 700k deaths and a population of almost 8 billion, that is nowhere near enough. So we will likely be going through this over and over again in the centuries to come. Even with as many are dying, we are adding over 100 million new people to the planet since this started, as only a million or so die by the time it is done.
Predictions based on extrapolations of past conditions are not particularly hard to do. Predictions based on new information takes a bit more work, but again, it can be done successfully.
It's not if something will happen, it's usually just a matter of when.
As for the Y2K kits, some of the ones I remember being advertised were just plain stupid. A few months of food and water isn't a bad idea, but mountains of gear you have no idea how to use will just expedite an honorable mention for the Darwin Award.
As for epidemics, the acceleration of population growth will decrease the time between them. More people equals areas in which the population density increases, sometimes dramatically. That increases the likelihood of contact between patient zero and their first victim. No need for statistics to understand that one. As such, the time between outbreaks will be inversely proportional to population density.
I would be curious why you thought the Philippines would be more likely to cause one, but not mention India?
As for epidemics, the acceleration of population growth will decrease the time between them.
Except population growth is slowing. At the last estimate I saw, global population is expected to top out at around 9 billion sometime in the next century or so.
I don't believe it will get to 9 billion. The pandemic cycles will increase in severity until they reset themselves with a large kill off. One trend that is easily verified is the increasing resistance to modern pharmaceuticals on the part of various viruses and bacteria. It's just a matter of time before one or the other resets the cycle.
I don't believe it will get to 9 billion.
Perhaps you are right, but you explicitly referenced to the acceleration of population growth. And it has actually been decelerating for several decades already.
Perhaps you are right, but you explicitly referenced to the acceleration of population growth. And it has actually been decelerating for several decades already.
Yes I did do that, but I also qualified it with this;
As such, the time between outbreaks will be inversely proportional to population density.
And this;
It's just a matter of time before one or the other resets the cycle.
I would be curious why you thought the Philippines would be more likely to cause one, but not mention India?
The largest dangers of deadly viral outbreaks are from rainforests and jungles.
And there are actually strains of Ebola in the Philippines. And want to get really scared? The first outbreak of Ebola in the United States was actually in 1989, from a shipment of infected monkeys fro, the Philippines to Virginia. Several humans did indeed get infected, but in that strain humans appear to be an asymptomatic carrier and do not suffer any ill effects.
There have been many other outbreaks of "Ebola Reston" since then in the Philippines, and it has been confirmed that the variant is also communicable to swine, and there have been cases of infection of humans through swine (which are also asymptomatic carriers).
It would not be hard for a mutation to create a variant that is deadly to humans. It also has the longest incubation period of any strain of Ebola known. Up to 21 days, as opposed to 8-10 days of most strains.
But most of the virus we have been seeing in the last several decades all seem to come from rainforests. And next to China the Philippines has a lot of it, that only in the last few decades humans have really been encroaching into.
I've written a fair amount of prophecies for stories over the years and it's not entirely difficult. As has been pointed out it's really all about making your words vague enough to keep your readers guessing, but at the same time making it so that its fairly obvious when they look back. Rick Riordan is a great example of cryptic but a better example of how to make it cryptic by obvious in hindsight would be what Sybill Trelawney said about Harry Potter.
"The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches ... Born to those who have thrice defied him, born as the seventh month dies ... And the Dark Lord will mark him as his equal, but he will have power the Dark Lord knows not ... And either must die at the hand of the other for neither can live while the other survives..."
At the time when people read it, before the last book, everyone thought that Harry had to be the one to kill Voldemort, and in truth he was. That was the obvious part, but the cryptic part that is obvious in hindsight, but wasn't then, is the "either must die at the hand of the other" part. No one knew that in order for Voldemort to truly die ... Harry had to die.
The other part that was cryptic to the characters, but not readers since it was the Harry Potter series, was that Harry wasn't the only one that the prophecy could have spoken of. Neville Longbottom was born the day before Harry and his parents also defied Voldemort on several occasions.
So prophecy writing is about smoke and mirrors. Give them enough options to fool themselves.
The plan was, the prophecy is actually setting out the 'victory condition' for the 'good guys', while reading like it's a necessary precondition for the apocalypse. Specifically because the 'forces of darkness' side are the ones who were the source of the prophecy. (One of the rules of magic for the world - all prophecies must be true. But the most effective lies are the truth presented as a lie.)
The plan was, the prophecy is actually setting out the 'victory condition' for the 'good guys', while reading like it's a necessary precondition for the apocalypse.
Without knowing full well what sort of setting you've got going on or any sort of background for characters and world, my suggestion would be to use words like "When". When readers see those words they automatically think that something is set in stone, but that's not the case.
For example it might read "When the sun sets on the fourth day the shout of victory shall resound". Now that in and of itself is a lousy prophecy lol. It's literally just the first few words that came to mind. BUT by saying "when the sun sets" and also saying "fourth day" you add a lot of confusion.
First of all the sun sets every day so "When" is really vague. And "fourth day" is just as vague. Who is to say what day is actually the fourth day? Does the week start with Sunday or Monday?
First of all the sun sets every day so "When" is really vague. And "fourth day" is just as vague.
A side from what you mention, the fourth day of what? The week? The month? The year? The battle?
A side from what you mention, the fourth day of what? The week? The month? The year? The battle?
Great point.
Great point.
I like making it the fourth day of the battle.
Basically all the prophecy is saying is that the battle will rage for 3 days and 3 nights, and then someone (we don't know which side) will win at sun rise.
The plan was, the prophecy is actually setting out the 'victory condition' for the 'good guys', while reading like it's a necessary precondition for the apocalypse. Specifically because the 'forces of darkness' side are the ones who were the source of the prophecy. (One of the rules of magic for the world - all prophecies must be true. But the most effective lies are the truth presented as a lie.)
Oracle of Delphi was great for some ambiguous prophecies, e.g. "if King Croesus crosses the Halys River, a great empire will be destroyed".
The plan was, the prophecy is actually setting out the 'victory condition' for the 'good guys', while reading like it's a necessary precondition for the apocalypse.
Some thoughts–
He who has ears to hear shall take heed to the word of the wise: (or Words of Wisdom:)
[Or use standard intro to prophecy.]
A (or The) Newborn shall suckle The Teat of Misery …
[Is "The Teat of Misery" the good or the bad guys?]
[Who or what is the Newborn? A baby? A young person? Someone or something new?]
[Does the Newborn gain or lose strength or ability while suckling that teat?]
[And what does the sucking do to the owner of The Teat? Must the owner be female or even human?]
Or if "Newborn" does not work use "Leader" or some in-story title used by both sides.
…then the sun shall set and the fortunes of many will be destroyed…
[An actual sunset? Or at night? Or the sunset of an empire?]
Or …then the fortunes of many shall be destroyed…
[Either way it's so vague it could mean anything.]
…only then shall the night of quiet and stillness reign in/on/at The High Place
[I.e. the winner takes all and the loser is SOL here meaning Shit Out'a Luck.]
After writing the above, it looks like the bad team thinks The Teat of Misery is the good team because they give the bad team trouble. The bad team believes they will suck the good team dry then the fortunes of many (the good team) will be destroyed. The bad team has a bad vǫlva.
A (or The) Newborn shall suckle The Teat of Misery …
Clearly a reference to an orphan in the state between Kansas and Illinois. :)
Look up the Prophecy of /pol/. It was a post on 4chan's politics forum in 2016 and has caused much internet discussion since then as various autists try and fit recent events into it. Whether there is a real prophet is irrelevant. The fact that it drew attention is.
Its cryptic.
It appears to foreshadow the future.
It doesn't give away the actual events.
It grabs attention, at least from a certain mind set.
The introduction suggests ancient conspiracys and hidden, malevolent powers. Religious overtones, one line per event, symbolic names, enigmatic events, hints of a sudden final attack.
If you want a prophecy that sets your book in motion, foreshadows the plot but doesn't give it away until the reader realizes that "Oh!" With a cartoon light bulb over their head then that style may work for you.
Screenshot here:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dny0fu2WkAAo8Dv.jpg
"An island will drift away..." Sounds like Brexit... LOL
"A black flag will fly above the dome." A year or too ago that would have been ISIS, but Black Lives Matter has taken that mantle and run with it.
"A bear will leave its cave forever" I wonder If Putin will be helpful and step down down/die this year....
You could have some fun with that list if bored enough.
"A black flag will fly above the dome." A year or too ago that would have been ISIS, but Black Lives Matter has taken that mantle and run with it.
But where is the dome?
How about a whole book written 120 years ago that exactly predicts a fake, powerless leader, a Wicked Witch of the West with her crew of flying monkeys and deadly bees, a cowardly lion, a guy who only wishes he had a brain...
L.Frank Baum - Wizard of Oz, 1900
L.Frank Baum - Wizard of Oz, 1900
Problem was, that was about a presidential race back then.
Tin Man - northeast
Scarecrow - the South
Dorothy - the flyover states
the Lion and the Wizard were the two candidates
the witches were, as far as I could figure out, NYC and LA
the witches were, as far as I could figure out, NYC and LA
Except there were 3 witches in the story, with a fourth at least implied.
Wicked witches in the East and West, one of which gets killed at the very beginning of the story, I presume in your formula these are NYC and LA.
Good witches in the North and South.
Glinda(not sure if I have that right), good witch of the north aids Dorothy. So who would that be in your formula?
I wasn't sure... Chicago?
Since the main campaign issue the story revolved around was whether to use the gold standard or switch to a bimetallic standard (hence the silver slippers and the yellow brick road) I suppose the CBoT would be a influence?
All of that may be true, but who has the flying monkeys (Shiff, etc.) and the killer bees? Why, the Wicked Witch of the West, who lives in Winkie Country (I think that was a typo, he probably meant Twinkie Country, i.e. San Francisco, where she keeps freezers full of ice cream. Haven't found reference to the ice cream yet, but I'm sure it's there somewhere.
So, anyone who's done it, any insights?
I know this doesn't fit the discussion, but ... back when I was writing my 'retired' Catalyst series, at one point the main character was asked for the basis of his new 'religion' (one that he didn't personally believe in), so I we both decided (he and I) that he needed to use proverbs, where you state something, without actually stating that it's based on Devine will, simply that it helps to illustrate a religion's general philosophy's.
Having never worked with proverbs, rather than going to the Bible (though I did try), I instead read up on Abraham Lincoln's storytelling, as he had studied the prophecies in detail, and could literally invent compelling one's on the fly, given the opportunity.
Simply by reading the works of someone who's mastered the techniques is often a better guide than actually studying the original proverbs/prophecies themselves, as they're not only more numerous, but they often less obscure and easier to decipher in modern English vernacular.
Simply by reading the works of someone who's mastered the techniques is often a better guide than actually studying the original proverbs/prophecies themselves, as they're not only more numerous, but they often less obscure and easier to decipher in modern English vernacular.
Some of my favorites are by author David Gerrold. Mostly known for "The Trouble With Tribbles", he is highly influenced by Robert Heinlein. And he created a kind of "Mad Prophet" called Solomon Short that he quotes often in his works.
Self-abuse is the sincerest kind.
The only winner in the War of 1812 was Tchaikovsky.
A bird in the hand makes blowing your nose difficult.
The difference between contribution and commitment? Ham and eggs requires a CONTRIBUTION from the chicken, but a COMMITMENT from the pig.
A human being is a computer's way of making another computer. Yes, we are their sex organs.
The human mind is the only computer made out of meat.
Thanks for the suggestion.
I wasn't looking forward to trying to reverse engineer Nostradamus' writing.
I think the problem with Nostradamus is that he wrote so cryptically (using, as I remember at least two or three different languages even within the same unit). Personally, I think it would be better to write something that looks pretty plain on the surface, with just enough vague terminology that nobody could predict the prophecy would come true the way it did.
