Forum: Author Hangout

As the author, CW will have access to the number of readers who read the last chapters ie likely to have finished the stories. That's probably even more accurate, as the stories may have different rates of abandonment.

AJ

the number of readers who read the last chapters ie likely to have finished the stories.

Someone might give up on a story but jump to the last chapter to vote.

The last chapter download-count is a bit bloated by people who didn't read the complete story but voted on it. That's the reason mostly the second last chapter has the lowest download-count.

I'm not exactly a prolific author so my data pool is very small, but for all of my multi-part stories the final instalment has the lowest download count.

AJ

I'm talking about long stories (CW's stories for example), which can't be read in a single sitting. How many readers will abandon such a long story at the second-last chapter? How many people will abandon it but still vote on it?

Few abandon my stories on the first (or second) chapters, though some do when they discover the subject matter doesn't suit them. Most will wait until the fifth chapter, while those more dedicated will stick around to the 8th or 10th before quitting, even IF it doesn't suit them.

Generally, those who DO quit on the first chapter are more likely to downgrade the story by voting it down from the get-go, since the subject matter doesn't appeal to them. Those who read more chapters before quitting are generally more forgiving (i.e. while the story might not go where they wanted, they see the general appeal of the story) and thus aren't as likely to 'vote it down').

It's impossible for me to know why or when someone stops reading my stories.

As I've mentioned previously in other discussions, I use a dirty trick. I typically post my cast list first, frequently updating it, only to delete it when the story ends before reposting it. This ERASES (nearly) all of those false-download counts, giving me a truer reading of how many abandon the story on which chapter, as there are fewer false 'read-ahead' chapters.

I've no idea how you can make such distinct observations.

CW and I have disagreed in the past about his identification of trends bases on analyzing stats.

One would expect reader attrition to result in a constantly declining number of downloads per chapter. However for one of my stories, one of the later chapters had a download count that was significantly higher than the 3 preceding chapters. I'm not into story stats, so I just noted the oddity and put it down to people accessing that chapter numerous times for whatever reason.

Before continuing, I will say that analyzing story stat data for personal use is fine by me. I only start spouting off when the data collection system seems flawed or the analysis techniques seem questionable, and then the person doing the analysis starts telling me that their analysis proves a trend.

Assume you ignore the download count of a story's early chapters, download count is still not an accurate representation of number of the number of readers. Individual readers may download a chapter 2, 3, 4, or more times before they finish the chapter. After they've finished the chapter, they may go back through multiple chapters looking for a passage they want to reread.

For the above and other reasons, I am highly skeptical of conclusions made from analyzing data acquired from SOL's story stats. My personal opinion is, if the person doing the analysis didn't collect or at least control the collection of the data being analyzed or if I am not familiar with the capabilities of the person doing the analysis, I question the results.

However for one of my stories, one of the later chapters had a download count that was significantly higher than the 3 preceding chapters. I'm not into story stats, so I just noted the oddity and put it down to people accessing that chapter numerous times for whatever reason.

Knowing stats, that's unlikely to mean those readers skipped those chapters entirely, instead it indicates they read the three chapters at the same time, so it only registered the first and last chapters read that day (the last probably when they voted on it).

As for "proves a trend", the reason why I provide these here to get feedback, so determine whether anyone else's data backs up my suppositions, or whether they're just the responses by MY readers, or whether I'm reading too much into too little objective detail. I'm certainly NOT saying this is a definite trend, though my phrasing often sounds like that's my position. (Sorry, that's how I tend to talk. Everything is always definitive, rather than questioning.)

Finally, "trends" doesn't mean "proof-positive", it simply means "there might be a likely cause, barring future evidence which disproves the supposition". Just like when I read individual chapter scores to see how readers like particular chapters (say violence vs. romance), I like these "micro-analyses" because the identify reader preferences, and highlight how readers often see my stories in an entirely different way than I and my editors do.

If I'm aware of something, I can either modify it, or acknowledge it, buying me time to make amends in the story as I further flesh out the characters.

However for one of my stories, one of the later chapters had a download count that was significantly higher than the 3 preceding chapters.

That happened with one of my stories. However the following chapter was delayed, so I ascribed the extra readership to readers who wanted to re-read the chapter so recent story events were fresh in their memories when reading the new chapter.

AJ

If you're on a story's index page and you click the link for chapter 27, do those browsers prefetch chapters 26 and 28?

AJ

pre-fetch for browsers is they would go about caching the contents of every link into the browsers memory before you have clicked on anything

Lazeez would be best to answer this, but I thought they came up with a way to allow the web page to tell the browser to not pre-fecth and SoL has that. I do know there was a change that has my browser pre-fetching less than it used to when the pre-fetch first started, but can't remember why that is.

I'm not exactly a prolific author so my data pool is very small, but for all of my multi-part stories the final instalment has the lowest download count.

That's natural, as sequels rarely do better than the original (i.e. you rarely draw in new readers), though each new book draws readers to your other books (i.e. a new sequel will cause more readers to read your first book first, and then the sequel only if they like your first book).

With each new book I sell, I typically sell more older books than I do new ones.

By multi-part story I meant a single story posted in multiple instalments.

I'm not big on sequels :(

AJ

I'm not big on sequels :(

Last time I checked, the second and subsequent installments were sequels.

the next installment (as of a speech or story); especially : a literary, cinematic, or televised work continuing the course of a story begun in a preceding one

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sequel

I consider the next instalment of a serial to also be an instalment, whether it's a single chapter, multiple chapters, parts, sections, subsections or whatever delimitation the author chooses to use.

AJ

By multi-part story I meant a single story posted in multiple installments.

Understood. Multiple sequences is referenced as "books" to distinguish it from "multiple posts".

Don't forget that if you decide to abandon a story after reading a few chapters, you have to go to the last posted chapter to remove it from your library.

When I'm reading a multi-chapter story and decide to abandon it, I use the Story Index to access the last posted chapter and remove the story from my Library.

Just two different ways to access the story deletion routine. I get the same questions.

It is always nice to know how things like that actually work, EB.

So if I start reading a long chapter and am a slow reader or if I'm interrupted and it takes me 6 days to read the chapter with me accessing the chapter once a day, I will add 6 to that chapters down load count to just read the chapter. If on 4 subsequent occasions I refer back to that chapter on different days, I will have contributed 10 to its download count.

If others did similar things, that means the download count could be considerably higher than the number of readers that accessed the chapter.

If others did similar things, that means the download count could be considerably higher than the number of readers that accessed the chapter.

correct, also, since you read the chapter on different days the story download count will increase by 1 on each day you access the chapter because it counts that as an access to the story.

Thus if you read a 20 chapter story all on the same day the story and each chapter get a count of one each. However, if you take four days to read the same story the chapters will each get a count of 1 while the story will get a count of 4 due to 1 for each day of access.

This is why the total count and the chapter counts will never match on the longer stories, it's rare for someone to read it all on the same day.

There's a lot of little quirks about the system I've learned from Lazeez over the years.

I joined this discussion by stating my assumption that the lowest individual chapter download-count represents the most realistic number regarding readers completely reading a story. The correct number is impossible to deduce from those numbers. It's most probably lower but can't be higher. That's all I'm certain.

I agree with you, but, as you say, you can't be certain about any of it. Although it is a good indication.

I joined this discussion by stating my assumption that the lowest individual chapter download-count represents the most realistic number regarding readers completely reading a story. The correct number is impossible to deduce from those numbers. It's most probably lower but can't be higher. That's all I'm certain.

The first chapter (the diagram in Ernest's case, or the character list in mine) is ALWAYS higher, not because it's read that often, but because, when readers access the chapter index to jump to the latest chapter, it 'reads ahead', counting the chapter even though you've never opened it. That's the biggest single 'contamination' in the stats, unread pages counting as actual downloads. Eliminating those 'false' counts provides more realistic, but still not perfect' chapter counts.

Something else occurred to me last night after I shutdown my computer. When I access a story, my computer opens the last story I read and I then access the chapter I want to read. From what I see, there is a pointer that is set to the last chapter I read and the chapter is always downloaded the next time I access the story. That means I increment 2 download counters to read 1 chapter. I put together the following scenario to see if that might lead to the chapter download counts leading to incorrect conclusions.

To make it easy, let's ignore the false download count problem with the first chapter. Assume an author writes a story with 10 chapters and the chapters are posted at 3-day intervals. 10 people read the story.

All readers read Chapter 1 on the day it is posted. The chapter's counter shows 10 downloads and all of the readers' pointers point to Chapter 1.

When Chapter 2 is posted, all or the readers read Chapter 2 on the day it is posted. When the story is opened, all of the readers uploand Chapter 1 and that increments its counter to 20. The readers select and read Chapter 2. Its counter shows 10 downloads. All of the readers' pointers now point to Chapter 2.

The same thing happens when Chapters 3, 4, and 5 are posted. The counters for Chapters 1-4 show 20 downloads and Chapter 5 shows 10.

Now assume 5 readers decide to wait until the story is completely posted before reading further.

When Chapter 6 is posted, the remaining 5 readers read the story. Chapters 1-4 counters indicate 20 downloads, Chapter 5 shows 15, and Chapter 6 shows 5. The 5 readers' pointers point to Chapter 6.

When Chapters 7-9 are posted, the same process occurs. Prior to Chapter 10 posting, the download counters show Chapters 1-4 at 20, Chapter 5 at 15, Chapters 6-8 at 10, and Chapter 9 at 10.

When Chapter 10 posts, 5 readers read the last chapter and the remaining 5 readers read chapters 6-10 in one day. After Chapter 10 posts, the download counters show Chapters 1-5 at 20, Chapters 6-9 at 15, and Chapter 10 at 10.

If the download count correlates to the number of readers that opened and read the chapter, the values imply that there were 20 readers. 5 readers dropped the story after opening Chapter 5 and a second group of 5 readers dropped the story after opening Chapter 9.

Something else occurred to me last night after I shutdown my computer. When I access a story, my computer opens the last story I read and I then access the chapter I want to read. From what I see, there is a pointer that is set to the last chapter I read and the chapter is always downloaded the next time I access the story. That means I increment 2 download counters to read 1 chapter. I put together the following scenario to see if that might lead to the chapter download counts leading to incorrect conclusions.

I'll deal with this point first.

It will only count twice if the clock at the SoL server has clicked over the 24 hours into the next SoL day - if you do that and get back to it before the timer at SoL clicks over it won't increase because the system will see it as 2 accesses on the same day. - this where the different time zones have an effect.

It will only count twice if the clock at the SoL server has clicked over the 24 hours

As stated the posting interval is every 3 days, so the clock will have ticked over.

All readers read Chapter 1 on the day it is posted. The chapter's counter shows 10 downloads and all of the readers' pointers point to Chapter 1.

When Chapter 2 is posted, all or the readers read Chapter 2 on the day it is posted. When the story is opened, all of the readers uploand Chapter 1 and that increments its counter to 20. The readers select and read Chapter 2. Its counter shows 10 downloads. All of the readers' pointers now point to Chapter 2.

This will depend on their personal setting and how they access the story.

When you go through your Library bookmarks it usually takes you to the last chapter you were reading, but if you go to a story update from the 'Updated Story' list it usually takes you to the next chapter to read or the last chapter posted - - I'm not sure which is the default, because I've had both happen to me.

.............

As I've often said, the stats you get are only indicative, there's no way you can say they're absolute figures. And the points you raise are valid, which is why I have a huge packet of salt on hand when people start talking about what the stats mean.

I know readers who will read the first chapter when it's posted, and from that they'll decide if they'll read the full story when the last chapter is posted or if they'll totally ignore the story. They also refuse to even look at the first chapter if they know the author is the type who adds codes as the story goes up, because they want to know all the codes before they start.

If ten people really like a story and re-read it every month the system will show lots of reader access and the counts go up, but they may be the only ten people who ever read the story. There's no way an author can know.

This will depend on their personal setting and how they access the story.

Yes that is true. The different variables in how readers access a story and what chapters they download once the story is accessed adds at least one layer of complexity to the generation of the chapter download counts.

However, my scenario was intentionally simplistic and it limited the way in which the 10 readers downloaded chapters. It was based on all readers having the same setting for opening the story; namely, open the last chapter read.

There's no way an author can know.

I agree wholeheartedly and that is the reason I believe an author's conclusions based on information that contains factors the author doesn't know should not be trusted. I also have a big bag of salt.

I created the scenario to demonstrate that analyzing a dataset (e.g. chapter download counts) can lead to false conclusions. Anyone who wants to use a dataset in an analysis needs to understand how the data points were generated and how the data collection system gathered the data points.

What my very limited and controlled scenario demonstrated was 10 readers read the entire story generating chapter download counts that differed from what one might expect to have been generated. If someone analyzed the resulting chapter download counts without knowing there were only 10 readers, the conclusion may have been a few readers had dropped out of the story (i.e., the total number of readers was greater than the 10 that finished the story).

It is always nice to know how things like that actually work, EB.

So if I start reading a long chapter and am a slow reader or if I'm interrupted and it takes me 6 days to read the chapter with me accessing the chapter once a day, I will add 6 to that chapters down load count to just read the chapter. If on 4 subsequent occasions I refer back to that chapter on different days, I will have contributed 10 to its download count.

The other thing I do, is that rather than bookmarking specific pages, I'll simply leave the page open in my browser. If I do that with 20 or 50 different pages, every time I open my browser (say one each day), it'll update each of those chapter counts by one each time.

I'm unsure whether the browsers actually register the page unless i click on it (Firefox addressed this some time ago), so the problem isn't as bad as it once was, but it's still something to be aware of.

It's better to bookmark than to leave pages open indefinitely.