Forum: Author Hangout

Avatar 2 is a particularly hard example because some of the costs are technology development, which they're bundling into the cost of the movie because then, accounting-wise, it looks like huge found money when everyone else starts using the gadgets Cameron built (as has happened for three or four cycles now), and also because a very large part of Avatar 3 was filmed overlapping with 2. 3 will 'cost' peanuts, comparatively, though I believe now that 3 is officially approved they're hastily retconning all of the financials (meaning 2 makes more and 3 doesn't have an absurdly low hurdle).

The other thing left out of the equation is post-theater revenue (DVDs - still a thing in many markets - streaming revenue, merchandise, etc) which can bring in a huge extra windfall and make otherwise unprofitable movies profitable. That tends to not show up in the various breathless reports of how much a movie has grossed, but it's very much there for the studio.

And then there's the completely insane world of production tax credits, which can make a movie that 'lost' tens of millions on paper a huge financial windfall, and why movies are sometimes 'filmed' in 5-10 countries (or more!)

This is probably at least partially not true. Theater capacity in the US is significantly down from the 1990s and 2000s due to the conversation of 'stadium seating' theaters into 'luxury lounger' theaters. Many of the theaters where I live (or visit) actually seat about 1/3 as many people in the same physical space as they seated twenty years ago. There haven't been nearly enough new theaters built to offset that; we still get a new one now and then, but not dozens.

Semi-boutique chains like Alamo Drafthouse and Flix also have very different space utilization models which greatly increases revenue per seat in ways that take up more space (food and beverage - restaurant-like to bar-like profits, but everyone needs space to eat, servers need space to serve, etc).

There are many more movie theaters and screens in those movie theaters then in the past.

There are far Fewer movie theaters. However, many of the Multiplexes provide a lot of screens.

Compared to the increase of population, I believe there are fewer movie screens per capita. However, those screens often show more movies per week (opening earlier, and staying open later). Most single screen theaters have been repurposed or closed. Many communities no longer have a movie theater.

In the 1980's large US Army and Navy bases had, six, to a dozen movie theaters on each base. Smaller bases had three or four. (They were also used to present briefings, or training during the duty day.) Some of the theaters are still used for briefings/training; I am not sure if even one theater on JBLM shows commercial movies anymore. Nor are there theaters in the local communities.

Multiplexes in Lakewood and Tacoma are the only movie theaters. Far fewer screens than 30 or 40 years ago; despite the population more than doubling.

I agree with a lot of that. Expanding on 'special ambiance', though, I think what's going to drive the movie business going forward are two things: date nights and event movies.

Date nights will be a thing because people who aren't in relationships are leery of going on dates to other people's homes/apartments/whatever to watch a movie, and people who are in relationships want to get out of the house sometimes and go do something.

Event movies will be a thing because people want to be in the presence of groups of other people enjoying the same thing. You won't get that round of applause at the end at home (or it'll be really different), you won't walk out of it around strangers who just spent a couple of hours immersed in the same world, etc.

The combination will tend to push theaters towards date-oriented fare, feel-good movies, and blockbusters, which seems natural. 'Smaller' films will gravitate towards streaming.

Different, maybe reduced, but not gone.

The other type of theaters will thrive are ones built to cater to that - theaters that serve full meals, serve alcohol, etc, and ones who run 'fan favorite' movies as singalongs or other audience participation events, mix live comedy with movies (think of MST3K, but live), etc. Not anywhere near the numbers you get for a first-run blockbuster, but more than plenty to keep the theater running indefinitely at a healthy profit.

Another reason to visit Oklahoma!

The same thing happened when they opened in Texas (in multiple cities, one by one). Over time, the lines died down, but at first it was crazy.