Forum: Author Hangout

Calculating time to hike cross-USA post-apoc

PotomacBob 🚫

How to go about calculating the time it would take to hike across the U.S.A., from New York City, to Los Angeles, in a post-apoc situation.
Some assumptions:
- there are four people hiking together - 2 young women, age 21, who are not athletes but are in good shape.
- One male, age 21, who was a high-school football player ("I like to hit people") and has since been working in a mine. (Think "Big John," - 6-foot-6, 245 pounds, broad at the shoulder and narrow at the hips.) (Cousin of one of the girls)
- One male, age 50-ish, who was never into sports, but dabbles in riding a bicycle on occasion, and is slightly overweight. Uncle of one of the girls.
- For the purpose of this calculation, ignore any troubles they might have along the way, such as fights or water or food supply and finding a place to sleep) that would delay them.
- How do you account for differing terrains? Is there a "best" route (i.e., Southern or Northern or Middle route. How much will the Appalachians and Rockies slow them down?
not one of these people is an experienced hiker, though all have previously gone on hikes for 5 or 10 miles, and are accustomed to carrying backpacks.
Is there a rule of thumb that would avoid a complicated calculation?

Replies: Uther_Pendragon Ernest Bywater StarFleet Carl PotomacBob

Dinsdale 🚫

Lazlong built that question (without the post-apoc part) into a story - https://storiesonline.net/s/45956/washed-up - although the plans changed at an early stage. They started from Maine which obviously meant that they were planning to take a northerly route. You are interested in the planning and that is in the first couple of chapters.

karactr 🚫

Also, I would have to question what type of apocalypse. If machines still work, can be stolen and gas can be drawn from station tanks...Why walk?

Replies: ChiMi

ChiMi 🚫

@karactr

because gas goes bad after 2 years.

Replies: StarFleet Carl

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@ChiMi

because gas goes bad after 2 years.

Quicker than that.

But ... keep in mind what bad gas is. It's gas that's had moisture get into it or sediment mixed in with it. Which means you pull go up to the gas station underground tank, you drop your hose into it, you pump out 50 or 100 gallons, you run it through a fine filter to get the sediment out, and then you use it.

Since most gas stations have anywhere from 24,000 to 96,000 gallons (or more) of gas in their tanks, if you find one that's bad, you simply move on to the next one. Who cares if the car gets crappy fuel economy or has a stutter? This is post apocalypse - it'll still burn.

And if none of the cars will run because of fuel injection, you go find some kick start motorcycles or something. For some stupid reason people think that just because gasoline is old that it mysteriously loses its ability to burn. It still will work - it's not great for your engine, and can cause damage to it, but you're in a post apocalypse scenario here. Go get another car. There's going to be lots of them out there.

Uther_Pendragon 🚫

@PotomacBob

Actually hiking can be done better than 12 miles per day. (Sherman went through South Carolina at 10 miles per day, and his troops built the damned roads they marched on.) Whether the people you describe could do it is an entirely different question.

WHERE DO THEY GET THE DAMNED FOOD?' Excuse me for screaming, But a horse can't carry one man's rations for much more than a week.

The people who walked across the country in the 19th century followed routs which had been explored for them. Following the inter-states might help; so might following the transcontinental railroad routes. It took them the better part of a year, starting from St. Louis, and they were used to walking; moderns aren't.

Replies: PotomacBob Dominions Son Dominions Son

PotomacBob 🚫

@Uther_Pendragon

WHERE DO THEY GET THE DAMNED FOOD?'

I did not wish to make the query so complicated as to list all the possible difficulties they could face on their trek. For the purposes of this exercise, I'll try to figure out about how long it would take them to walk if they had no difficulties - then add to that however much they get delayed from whatever adventures they have.

Dominions Son 🚫

@Uther_Pendragon

Actually hiking can be done better than 12 miles per day. (Sherman went through South Carolina at 10 miles per day, and his troops built the damned roads they marched on.)

Sure, with trained athletes/soldiers that's possible, at least for a limited amount of time. Throw in young kids and pregnant women and you'll be lucky to make 3 mile/day.

Dominions Son 🚫

@Uther_Pendragon

WHERE DO THEY GET THE DAMNED FOOD?'

Assuming there is surviving animal life, if they have guns or bows / arrows, they can hunt. Even escaped livestock could be hunted.

sharkjcw 🚫

IF they can manage 15 miles per day it will take a about 234 days to travel 3,500
miles

Ernest Bywater 🚫

@PotomacBob

check the times it takes people to walk the various national hiking trails as they crisscross the USA. Most have some sort of website where people post their times for them.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@PotomacBob

How do you account for differing terrains? Is there a "best" route (i.e., Southern or Northern or Middle route. How much will the Appalachians and Rockies slow them down?
not one of these people is an experienced hiker, though all have previously gone on hikes for 5 or 10 miles, and are accustomed to carrying backpacks.
Is there a rule of thumb that would avoid a complicated calculation?

An average walking speed on smooth pavement is 3 mph. That's a 20 minute mile - if you can't do that, you're REALLY out of shape. So walk 8 hours per day, sleep 8 hours per day, 8 hours per day for doing other stuff, gives us an pace of 24 miles per day.

Taking into account that there's going to uphill and downhill, let's cut that back to 20 miles per day.

There are three main and fairly ways to get from New York City to Los Angeles, all of about the same distance (from 2,775 to 2,807 miles). Simple division says 140 days - except that you'll die if you're walking any of those main routes.

The northern route goes I-80 from NYC to just outside Butte, Montana, where it becomes I-76 into Denver. Then you're on I-70 until you get to Sulphurdale, Utah, where it merges with I-15 and you take that the rest of the way into LA.

The middle route goes I-70 to from NYC to Denver, then continue as above.

The southern route goes I-70 from NYC to St. Louis, then I-40 to Barstow, California, where it meets I-15 and you continue on.

The problem with ALL of these routes is simple. You'll have at LEAST 600 miles where finding water is going to be somewhere between problematic to completely impossible.

Oh, and if you time things badly while going through the Rockies - or for that matter, even if it's not badly, it's just that dangerous - then you'll be hearing the waiter call, "Donner, Party of 40. Donner, Party of 39, 38, 37..." You're also dealing with walking at elevations in Colorado of more than two miles above sea level - the Eisenhower Tunnel is at 11,158 feet.

If they had mountain bikes with comfy seats and were pulling small trailers, that'd probably double their average speed and they could do it in about 3 months. It's also be fairly simple to hook up an electric motor, battery, and alternator to a bike - pop some solar cells on it for shade and power, and make it through the desert parts without dying.

REP 🚫
Updated:

Is there a rule of thumb that would avoid a complicated calculation?

Yes. Ignore all of the variables and just use distance and average speed.

Based on your parameters, there are four people who are in reasonably decent physical condition, but not accustomed to hiking long distances. You also said to ignore things like the need for food and lodging. I will also assume the event did not damage the roads.

Distance is easy to determine based on route. Average speed is the most difficult to determine.

If the distance were flat terrain, you could use 3 MPH, which is the rate at which the average person walks. But once they become accustomed to walking, they would proceed at a higher rate; especially if they pushed themselves. Pushing themselves could also mean longer days.

You didn't specify route or start and end points, so I will assume they restrict themselves to Highway 70/76/80 from New York City to San Francisco using 80 north of Cheyenne. The total distance is about 2,911 miles.

They would be climbing slowly once they cross the Mississippi, so they would gradually become accustomed to the altitude and altitude would essentially have no effect on their progress. The only thing that would slow them down significantly would be the mountains.

From what I can see of the maps, the highways miss most of the mountainous terrain of the Appalachians and the Rockies. There is a short stretch of mountains approaching Salt Lake City and more between Reno and Sacramento.

I will use 3 MPH for the relatively flat terrain and a distance of 200 miles of mountainous terrain covered at a rate of 1 MPH. They would walk less than 8 hours a day at first, but longer once they were accustomed to walking; so I'll assume an average of 10 hours of walking a day over the entire trip.

2711 miles of flat terrain at a rate of 3 MPH would take about 903 hours of walking. Adding another 200 hours for the mountainous terrain gives you 1103 hours for the trip, or about 110 days at 10 hours per day.

I'll ignore the higher average speed they would attain once they became accustomed to walking long distances and the possibility of longer days. But if I factored those in the trip would probably take about 100 days.

Replies: StarFleet Carl

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@REP

You didn't specify route or start and end points

Yeah, he said NYC to LA. See my long post above yours. It'd be easier to go NYC to SF, because you'd avoid most of the desert.

Replies: REP

REP 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

You're right, it didn't register when I read his post.

I was focused on all the assumptions he was defining.

One of those assumptions was to ignore all the difficulties the hikers would encounter. I understand that to mean we should ignore things like heat and lack of water in the desert, physical aliments like fatigue and pain, the need for rest breaks, the effects of high altitude, and obtaining the other necessities of life, such as food and water.

Which brings the calculation back to distance divided by speed to determine the number of hours. We can express the time it take to get to Los Angles in hours, but if you want to express it in days, that requires a second variable - hours/day of walking.

As I said, distance is fixed and easily determined based on the selected route. Since we can ignore the real-life impediments imposed by the route on the hikers, the shortest route possible would be the best choice.

Speed is a variable. 3 mph is the average person's walking speed. Walking for a long period of time builds muscle, which in turn, increases speed. The 4 hikers would probably start off at the 3 mph rate. But that speed would gradually increase to the speed of a power walker, which is in the range of 4.5-5.5 MPH.

Personally, I think expressing time would be best done in hours for converting it to days brings in another variable, namely hours walked per day. However, expressing the time in days is easier to relate to for most people. I'd say a value in the range of 8-12 hours a day would be a realistic value.

karactr 🚫

Alternatively, they could go the Dorsai route. Push themselves early when supplies are plentiful, acclimate to force march/run of 5 mph (a good jogging pace) at 50 miles a day. Or more.

Or get scooters and use the available gas before it goes bad...It does take a while...and do 250 miles a day. Ala Stephen King's The Stand.

My real question would be, why go all the way to the West coast? Better chance of surviving long term farming in the heartland.

BarBar 🚫

It's worth pointing out that the first few days would be slower while they got used to the strain of travelling, dealt with blisters etc. but then they would pick up speed as they gained fitness and became better at managing their day.

Replies: Dominions Son

Dominions Son 🚫
Updated:

@BarBar

It's worth pointing out that the first few days would be slower while they got used to the strain of travelling, dealt with blisters etc.

Blisters can pop and the open sores can get infected. Absent professional medical care, this can lead to loss of the foot or even death. It is extremely foolish in a PA situation to force a high pace for more than a few days at a time.

Even at a normal walking pace going 8 or 10 hours a day, with out good foot wear,nd at that kind of walking for weeks on end can lead to crippling foot injuries.

Any shoes or other foot gear you start with will wear out fairly quickly. under the described conditions.

Under the described conditions, PA, the only safe choice if someone in your party develops foot blisters is for that person to stay off their feet until the blisters are fully healed. And unless you are willing to try to drag the injured party on some kind of travois while maintaining that insane pace, that means the whole party stops. For what could be a week or more.

doctor_wing_nut 🚫

I would imagine weather would be a factor as well, and I didn't notice anyone accounting for that. How much would rain slow them down, or snow, or mud?

My guess would be close to 6 months, without all the other considerations, like food, illness, injury, hostility, etc.

Replies: StarFleet Carl

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@doctor_wing_nut

How much would rain slow them down, or snow, or mud?

Under the initial conditions set by the OP, all conditions are ignored. And if they're able to just follow the Interstate Highway system, they'll have pretty much an ideal surface for walking - either asphalt or concrete roads the whole distance.

And as someone who's marched in the rain, so long as it's not a flooded road, you just keep on going. Put your poncho on and continue using your LPC. (Leather Personnel Carriers - aka Army boots.)

Also, for such a long walk, you're GOING to want boots, not tennis shoes. Two pair, so you can change out every day, three spare pair of socks (so you can change those every day or half day), and if you're going to have to be on your feet a lot, liberally coat them in petroleum jelly before putting your socks on.

Replies: Dominions Son Remus2

Dominions Son 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

they'll have pretty much an ideal surface for walking - either asphalt or concrete roads the whole distance.

Only so long as they have good footwear. Asphalt and concrete roads would be far from ideal if you are walking on bare feet.

and if you're going to have to be on your feet a lot, liberally coat them in petroleum jelly before putting your socks on.

How many day's supply of petroleum jelly do you think a person can carry on their back (along with all the other supplies they need) and still maintain a 20+ mile / day pace for an extended period of time?

Replies: StarFleet Carl

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Dominions Son

How many day's supply of petroleum jelly do you think a person can carry on their back (along with all the other supplies they need) and still maintain a 20+ mile / day pace for an extended period of time?

Probably two. Since if they're following the interstate highway system, there's generally a Wal-Mart or other type of convenience store at every rural exit, and if you're in a big city, it's not that far to one.

Remus2 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

And if they're able to just follow the Interstate Highway system, they'll have pretty much an ideal surface for walking

a post-apocalyptic world would by definition be dangerous. With sufficient time, the reset reality would become the normal ending the apocalyptic state. Pre-post-norm (past present future) is and has been the natural order.

That established, walking in the open in either an apocalyptic or post-apocalyptic world/area would likely be a death sentence.

Replies: StarFleet Carl

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Remus2

That established, walking in the open in either an apocalyptic or post-apocalyptic world/area would likely be a death sentence.

I understand that. Now read what the OP posted:

- For the purpose of this calculation, ignore any troubles they might have along the way, such as fights or water or food supply and finding a place to sleep) that would delay them.

So I'm ignoring that. Which means they wear good hiking boots, aren't going to have trouble finding replacements as they wear them out, and can stroll down the center of I-70 through East St. Louis without a care in the world.

Realistic? Oh, hell no. But it's what the OP wanted.

Replies: Remus2

Remus2 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

I'll put it this way. There is no chance I'd enjoy nor finish such a story that didn't take those things into account.
We don't have to wait for an apocalypse to get a taste of what it would be like. Just take a chicken bus from Maracaibo Venezuela to Palomino Columbia, a hike in any of the stans, spend some time hiking around the Kashmir region between India and Pakistan, or take a motorcycle cycle ride along Yungas Road from La Paz to Coroico Bolivia. If foreign 'adventure' isn't your cuppa, a night walking around Riverdale neighborhood in Chicago.

Replies: Tw0Cr0ws

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Remus2

I'll put it this way. There is no chance I'd enjoy nor finish such a story that didn't take those things into account.

I'll second that.
Unless the apocalypse in the story has removed all other humans and all large predators there is no even partially realistic way.

The difference between fiction and real life is that fiction must make sense.

Dinsdale 🚫

Why be limited to walking? Are there no horses available?

Replies: Uther_Pendragon

Uther_Pendragon 🚫

@Dinsdale

Why be limited to walking? Are there no horses available?

Well, today there are damned few. I get most of my figures from the US Civil War, when they were common. Post-apocalypse, there would be even fewer. Animals not killed by whatever wrecks civilization, would mostly starve. A feral horse can live for years, but modern riding horses are dependent on their care-givers. Then, there is the problem of learning to ride unless one of the 4 is an experienced riding teacher.

Remus2 🚫
Updated:

It's not possible to calculate. There are too many variables at play.

About the only thing you can do is guesstimate the minimum time.

I'd put my hat in at 5-7 months minimum.

Replies: REP

REP 🚫

@Remus2

Bill Bucklew departed Tybee Island, Georgia, at 8:30 AM, November 24, 2017, and arrived at Imperial beach, San Diego, on January 31, 2018, at 12:45 PM.[1] Bucklew appears to have set the record for walking coast to coast (67 days).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_who_have_walked_across_the_United_States

The above is an actual hike under real world conditions over a distance of 2,409 miles for an average of about 40 miles a day. New York to Los Angles is 2,795 miles of similar terrain, so at the same rate it would take about 78 days.

Replies: Remus2

Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@REP

I was aware of that. Real world pre-apocalypse examples are easily found as you've demonstrated.

Post-apocalypse would be another beast. No support chase cars, hotels, supply lines, or restaurants would be a beast of another nature.

Replies: Dominions Son REP

Dominions Son 🚫
Updated:

@Remus2

No medical support is going to be one of the biggest issues.

I note with interest, that there isn't a single coast to coast attempt listed that was under 150 days from before WWII.

The difference, Chase cars, supply lines (not having to carry your own supplies), restaurants and most importantly, the availability of rapid emergency medical evacuation from remote locations.

REP 🚫

@Remus2

Not disputing that.

Remember the assumption the OP stated. He said we should ignore things like that in our calculations.

gmontgomery 🚫

Unless there is a reason to push though, I'd take a 18 plus months to make the trip. I'd divide it up into two if not three segments. The first would put the group into Davenport, Iowa for the first winter. From Davenport, follow I-80 to Salt Lake City for the next winter. Then on to the coast.

docholladay 🚫

Heck, just figure the speed based on the slowest speed rate. There will be days where the speed is much higher and days where it might be even slower.

PotomacBob 🚫

@PotomacBob

Thanks to all who contributed. It does give me an idea about an approximate overall time; the writing will have to be one day at a time and take into account all the troubles mentioned, plus weather, vampires, worn out shoes, blisters, frequent gunfights and keeping the traditions of the Donner Party. Very helpful.

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Calculating time to hike cross-USA post-apoc

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