Okay, Here's a hypothetical for you people.
Suppose you're a criminal hiding out from the cops (think long term), what are your needs?
The list i've come up with so far is
Money
Identification
Mental needs
Transportation
What are your thoughts?
Food
Clothing
Grooming facilities
Entertainment (TV, books)
Sexual release (with man, woman, goat etc)
AJ
The three basics for any survival course are -
water
food
shelter
anything else is just for comfort.
There are two more things you need on that list. Security and health.
That would complete the basic list of five things needed to survive.
Sadam, of course, hid in a spartan tiny pipe buried on a farm.
In Italy several hideaways have been found, including luxurious shipping containers buried beneath town streets.
Read about Eric Rudolph (the Centennial Park bomber).
He stayed free for more than 5 years, and only got caught because of carelessness (or perhaps on purpose).
He hid in the Nantahala national forest, which is about a half-million acres of densely wooded rugged terrain. There's plenty of safe water, very few people, and caves to hide in.
But it isn't all wilderness, you can walk down from any mountain and find farms with food to steal. Since predation by wildlife is pretty common, farmers aren't going to be suspicious if a chicken or some corn goes missing. Hunters put out grain and salt blocks for the deer - use some to preserve whatever you catch. Steal clothes off the clothes line.
It also helped that he was in a place where very few people trust the government - a mistrust that goes back hundreds of years, for good reason, whether you're a moonshiner or a Cherokee.
Your other needs are the knowledge of how to start a fire without lots of smoke, what wild plants are safe to eat, how to butcher various animals, how to do your own first aid.
It also helped that he was in a place where very few people trust the government - a mistrust that goes back hundreds of years, for good reason, whether you're a moonshiner or a Cherokee.
Cherokee trackers were looking for him at first until it became apparent he wasn't near areas of concern for them. They wanted him gone before the febs stumbled upon a couple of sacred locations potentially screwing them up. As it is, it took them (feds) five years of poking into everyone's business, and pissing off all the locals in the doing, and never actually finding him. He would still be unaccounted for if he had made the mistake of entering areas the Cherokee considered sacred.
For the record, if anyone supported him, it was the white nationalist/nazis on the S.E. edge of Nantahala. Nobody else wanted him around.
https://library.greensboro-nc.gov/research/north-carolina-collection/highlights/nazi-pow-camp-in-greensboro
That was the nucleus of the nazi movement in the area. While the government would never admit it, several of those pow's did in fact run away when they pulled most of the guards. Take one guess where they hid out.
What is also not widely known is that the febs did do some good in the area, though not intentionally. Their searches severely dialed back the white nationalist activities in the area.
As for Rudolph, he just gave up. He hides successfully for five years then pops up behind a Save-A-Lot at 4AM clean shaven wearing new clothes and new tennis shoes? That's not a person still trying to hide. A rookie Murphy NC cop arrested him on a standard patrol. No, he gave up, but did so in a manner that made the millions of dollars worth of Federal money spent looking for him look like a massive waste. It was his last F*** you to the Feds.
A couple of the Weathermen (eco-terrorists from the 1960s) hid in pain sight in suburban neighborhoods for decades. The had families, kids, all after they were wanted criminals.
Suppose you're a criminal hiding out from the cops (think long term), what are your needs?
Two different scenarios.
Do you want to go the Grizzly Adams way, or do you want to simply disappear in a major city?
Grizzly Adams, you better have some skills, and know where you want to go. Then, it's pretty easy. Water, food, and shelter. Tools to help you survive. (Think Morales on the Prison Planet in Arlene and Jeff.)
In a city ... you still have to have the basic three, but you need to make sure that you're in a different city. You'll need to determine your level of interaction with society. Do you want to just have a small, one bedroom apartment in a seedy side of town, or do you want some luxury? If you're wanting to work, you're going to need some fake identification. It's still possible to do a lot of things without identification, but so many things aren't anymore.
(think long term), what are your needs?
It really depends on two factors:
1 - what type of crime did you commit? How hard are the cops going to be looking for you? Right now, there are millions of criminals with active warrants out for them... and the cops aren't searching very hard.
2 - what type of education, experience and connections do you have? While it might be nice to imagine someone just running out into the woods and living like a caveman... that takes extensive knowledge and experience. You don't just leave the Bronx one day and magically know how to survive in the wilderness.
A high-level criminal might have to leave his city of choice for another urban center, but he's not going to survive long if he goes out into the wilds of Montana.
A low-level criminal can fly under the radar for quite some time if he simply moves to another city. Staying in the same city might be possible, but there's always the chance of him being ratted out by an associate who gets pulled in. I've seen that happen far too many times to count. There really isn't any honor among thieves!
Money, Clothing, Shelter, Food, Transportation, Communications, Medical Aid, Alibi, Entertainment, Maps & Escape Plans, Weapons.
Once you've established who the bad guy is in terms of education and life experience, then you can go on to determine exactly how his needs are met.
Remember, rural criminals can move into urban areas and blend in pretty easily, but urban criminals will stand out like a sore thumb if they try melting into a rural setting. You can disappear in the masses in a city, but small towns are small towns and new folks are spotted quickly.
Some years ago I went to a small, rural college in a small, rural town. Nearby was a Ranger base where they do "escape and evade" exercises.
One of the army guys, knowing that the dorms weren't full, snuck in one night, "borrowed" a t-shirt and jeans from the laundry room, grabbed some random books, and settled in. Ate free in the cafeteria, hung out with the cute girls, played some pool, and didn't get caught. Most of his compatriots tried to disappear into the forest, and were tracked down.
Oh... and on the night before he was to report back to base, he sat down with a bunch of us in the dorm, and told us what he was doing.
One of the army guys, knowing that the dorms weren't full, snuck in one night, "borrowed" a t-shirt and jeans from the laundry room, grabbed some random books, and settled in.
Taking it one step further, "foreign exchange student" with invented past might be a way to start over indeed, for someone still reasonably young at least.
Taking it one step further, "foreign exchange student" with invented past might be a way to start over indeed, for someone still reasonably young at least
Call yourself Fez and speak with an unplaceable accent.
Call yourself Fez and speak with an unplaceable accent.
Or speak like Andy Kaufman, and call yourself Latka Gravas.
That didn't happen to be in western NC was it? Specifically when they still had civilian interactions with Robin Sage?
That didn't happen to be in western NC was it? Specifically when they still had civilian interactions with Robin Sage?
No, but close by. 5th Ranger Training Battalion
North Ga.
No, but close by. 5th Ranger Training Battalion
North Ga.
Interesting story. Whomever that was would likely have greased Robin Sage if they went that route. That's the kind of out of the box thinking encouraged there. My father was with the Fifth Ranger Infantry Battalion in Hürtgen Forest WW2. He had some similar tales shared with me in my youth.
The story makes more sense now. Dahlonega, GA is full of military influence with its proximity to Benning and UNG's Dahlonega Campus. It would not be hard for him to have blended in there. Probably one of those things people asked why no one had thought of it before.
What you do and what you will need will vary greatly on what the people after you know about you and who they are. It will also vary a lot based on what skills you do and don't have and how well you handle living in various situations. Once you establish those limitations then you can look at what you need and what will work.
On the subject of hiding, I think small towns/villages are the worst places to hide ever, followed by the wilderness. Having lived in many small villages, it becomes apparent that most of the inhabitants have nothing better to do than sit and watch what you get up to, and then dissect it with the other locals.
Next would be the wilderness/country side. The prevalence of drones and aircraft with thermal and LIDAR equipment literally makes it an open space with no-place to hide.
If you want to hide, do it in a city and do it near an airport. Strange furtive behavior doesn't stand out as much, and to keep it topical, you can wear a mask and no-one will question it. Living next to an active airport also ensures that aerial oversight is severely curtailed. It's also the best place (and only way as far as I know)to lose cops in a car chase when they are using a helicopter to track you...
I think small towns/villages are the worst places to hide ever
It depends. A small town could be great, if the whole town is actively helping you hide.
One of the big outlaws from the Wild West (either Jessie James, or Billy the Kid, I forget which right now) had a small town in their territory that the gang used as a safe haven. The bought stuff for the town, hosted feasts for the towns people.
The people of that town considered them heroes. If the law came through, they knew nothing, saw nothing.
most of the inhabitants have nothing better to do than sit and watch what you get up to
Being born and still living in a small town I might know a few neighbors like that now if you will excuse me I need to go next door they are out of toilet paper.
In a small town nothing else happens and it is easy to see a change and if you don't collect your mail in a timely manner the postmaster will inform the fire department who will do a knock and look some houses around here are 1-2 mile (.8K) apart and being a farming community you don't need to be old to end up needed a pine box.
Next would be the wilderness/country side. The prevalence of drones and aircraft with thermal and LIDAR equipment literally makes it an open space with no-place to hide.
That you would make that statement tells me you only have a Hollyweird idea of what either technology can do.
Next would be the wilderness/country side. The prevalence of drones and aircraft with thermal and LIDAR equipment literally makes it an open space with no-place to hide.
IN wooded areas the thermal sensors can tell if a thermal source is there, but it's not really possible to tell if it is a man or a bear or a wolf moving about unless the target is in an open area so they can get some detailed images to study. If the thermals were good enough to say it was humanoid under the tree cover they'd have found big foot with thermals.
Usually when authorities are looking for someone in bushland with thermals they use the thermal to spot any image of an acceptable size in the limited area they're searching, then they send people in on foot for an eyeball on the target.
Usually when authorities are looking for someone in bushland with thermals they use the thermal to spot any image of an acceptable size in the limited area they're searching
The other thing to look for is small stationary hot spots that are too hot to be an animal, in other words a camp fire or other artificial heat source that is out of place.
IR/FLIR/Thermal imaging can be, and is regularly defeated. Despite the Hollyweird crap, all the above requires contrast in the infrared spectrum. Roughly 9,000–14,000 nm wavelength is the typical used for thermal/IR with the visible spectrum on that side ending at ~770 nm. Starlight/nightvision, etc by contrast is on the opposite side of the visible spectrum (below 400 nm).
It cannot see through walls, heavy tree canopies, glass, and all the other Hollyweird examples. In order to see anything, there has to be a detectable temperature gradient sufficient to emit infrared in the electromagnetic spectrum that contrast it's surroundings. Further, the source has to be in a specific range dependent upon the calibration range.
The premise that there is no where to hide can be directly tied to the bullshit Hollywood puts out in films.
As for laser imaging, detection, and ranging (LIDAR), that is poorly suited to a manhunt. The basic premise behind it is simple. A laser is pulsed which starts a timer. It hits a target then ideally reflects from it. The reflection hits a sensor stopping the clock. Time of flight is calculated giving the distance traveled. That is tied to known elevations of the detector platform with the end result given as a datum point in mapping software.
Problem comes in when anything, such as a tree canopy, is in the way. Whole cave entrances can and have been missed by it. Then there is the problems created by diffraction, refraction, deflection, etc of the beam itself. It's near on useless in a fog, or anywhere with natural off gasing such as the gases given off at certain times in the smokey mountains (which is what gave them the name).
If the person is ignorant enough to believe everything they see on TV or in a movie, then yes, their freedom is going to be in short supply. If they are even half assed educated on the technologies arrayed against them, it will be much more difficult to find them. If the person thoroughly educates themselves on it, they could lead them on a merry chase around the fairy rings and never be caught unless they want to be caught.
Problem comes in when anything, such as a tree canopy, is in the way
Interesting subject! I've worked with lots of lidar data. These days lidar is used to see 'through' canopies and map underlying terrain, and even to quantify and assess vegetation. Normal lidar processing software can filter in or out vegetation reflections etc. I don't know if this is a recent thing, rather like how software has revolutionized ultrasound fidelity and visualization even though the sensors are the same as the old grainy systems. There are lots of recent archeological discoveries of cities in jungles etc based on modern lidar scans.
This was twenty years ago but I recall seeing infra red photos of war games and the tracks left by vehicles showed up clearly. Even if you couldn't see the tank, you could follow the path it had taken. And all the soldiers had IR jackets but, when required to move about, had them unzipped... they lit up like Xmas trees. That was routine stuff.
Nothing I've ever been involved in, but lidar is also nowadays apparently used in targeting pods In aircraft for finding tanks and camps and things under tree cover. One of the modern military buzzwords is sensor synergy where they record broad spectrum and integrate.
I doubt police helicopters are equipped with this kind of system yet, though.
Mapping terrain and following terrain were the two primary drivers for development of LIDAR. As said before, it is "poorly suited to a manhunt." The discovery of several locations can, as you noted, be attributed to it, but those discoveries were of large anomalies not a person. Even with a thick canopy, every 2-2.5 meter or so you'll get a valid return, but that is insufficient for manhunt purposes.
As for IR, there are specific circumstances involved. In the example you gave of a tank, there was a sufficient heat transfer from the target to the surrounding background to leave a temporary trace. It would only be there until it had cooled to background levels.
The jackets you spoke of were not the only materials the technology behind them were applied to. Netting for instance.
In all cases, it comes back to contrast. Without that you have nothing. Following it comes pattern recognition. Whatever the sensor technology applied, breaking up the expected pattern is a key method for defeating it. Example; blending a heat bloom into the background.
Osama bin Laden was not found with any of those methods. His downfall was SIGINT/ELINT (signal/electronic intelligence). HUMINT (human intelligence) was how Sadam was found, though confirmed with GPR (ground penetrating radar). Rudolph as discussed here, simply gave up.
Most governments would rather civilians be unaware of the methods for escape and evasion from their sensor platforms. I sometimes wonder if Hollyweird wasn't deliberately muddying the waters on behalf of the government to that end.
Unfortunately for them, a study of the science behind the methods leaves a abstract contrast picture of their weaknesses for any who pay attention.
The data sets I've worked on were freely available scans at 10-20 points per square meter, taken by aircraft flying at 3000'. Standard national survey stuff, many countries have similar. These were augmented by fancy drone-based sets at much higher resolution. I know first hand that lidar is excellent for detecting people moving under canopies, eg drone operators doing archeological surveys showing up on their own datasets, and deer and things.
The wild card there is the density of the canopy. The datum point per meter density you described is most definitely not a high density canopy.
Very topical, there is currently a massive manhunt in the Black Forest for a "woodsman" called Yves Raush. They are using helicopters with IR cameras etc. The press nickname him "Rambo" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53429948
I don't know the Black Forest well enough to comment, nor the particulars of that case. However, the press is definitely adding their spin to the story.
