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Civilisation collapse, a different possible cause.

Grant 🚫

Something that would have a similar effect to an EMP, would be the collapse of the GPS network.

Without the GPS network, present communication networks would lose from 60% to 90% of their functionality as they rely on it for their timing reference. In developed nations, the GPS network is used to control farming machinery for harvesting and planting- failure of the GPS network is estimated to have a $15 billion impact in the US were it to occur during the planting season.

The economic impact of the loss of the GPS network would be $1 billion per day in the US alone.

Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System (GPS) final report
https://www.rti.org/sites/default/files/gps_finalreport.pdf

Replies:   sharkjcw  Remus2  Mushroom
StarFleet Carl 🚫
Updated:

Certainly things as we currently know it would take a dramatic and drastic hit. There would be a lot of issues.

But we had civilization prior to 1978 (which was when the first GPS satellite was launched). It's called maps and compass. Just because the current batch of millennials can't figure out how to get from the basement to the living room without a smart phone doesn't mean it can't be done.

There was this little thing called World War II - you may have heard of it. People fought each other all over the globe. No GPS. First landing of man on the moon, 50th anniversary on July 16th, 2019 - no GPS.

So yeah, it would suck for a while, but from a civilization perspective, that wouldn't cause a collapse.

Replies:   Grant
Grant 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

So yeah, it would suck for a while, but from a civilization perspective, that wouldn't cause a collapse.

Not having something, means you can't miss it.
But once you've had something, then it's loss becomes significant.

I'd suggest even just skimming through the report I posted the link to, you might change your opinion of just how significant the impact the loss of GPS would be due to the financial impact alone, let alone the actual interruption caused to daily life for the average person.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Grant

I'd suggest even just skimming through the report I posted the link to, you might change your opinion of just how significant the impact the loss of GPS would be due to the financial impact alone, let alone the actual interruption caused to daily life for the average person.

And since we've also had the predecessor, we also know how to work things without it.

I did look through the report. I'm not going to say that the impact of losing them would not have severe impacts. My distinction is between national collapse versus civilization collapse.

National collapse in the United States would mean that our country as a whole might have to revert to a pre-1950 style society, perhaps even back to a 1900 era society, with the equivalent drop in population. But as a country, we should still be able to exist. Not with the modern conveniences we have now, and not with the population we have now.

A civilization collapse means that you're basically looking at every Mad-Max movie, where there are no laws other than survival of the fittest.

Keep in mind that while the military does use GPS a lot - they also have their own dedicated circuits and training where they don't use it at all. So martial law gets declared in the U.S., a lot of gangs get wiped out because of peace through superior firepower, a lot of innocent people that live in big cities die from hunger ... but in the end, the U.S. survives. I'd expect Australia to do so as well, and while China, India and Russia would lose a LOT of people, they'd survive.

I'm not so confident about Western Europe.

sharkjcw 🚫

@Grant

I have 4 very successful farmers in my family and know more and none use GPS while planting or harvesting anything.

Jason Samson 🚫
Updated:

There are lots of post-apocalyptic stories, but I can't think of any that are just surviving breakdown of law and order caused by another great economic depression, like 1920s but worse and global?

I'm not sure people would buy a collapse of the gps system as the catalyst for such a meltdown. But perhaps? Certainly if it could be convincingly used as the cause of fuel shortages, which become food shortages, which become marshal law, which become ...?

I recently started Al Steins Aftermath, and SPOILER got as far as the bit where the hero finds a village or sex-starved women all in need of his services and thought hmmm not a love story of him and Chrissy after all... oh well, no thanks.

It seems the US view of post apocalypse is Mad Max where everyone starts out armed and shooting first... , whereas if there was a real emergency I can't imagine any of my neighbors doing anything but trying to help each other. I'd even help the neighbors I don't like much! I guess using guns is just a US male fantasy and the post-apocalyptic stories are just a vehicle to fulfill that? ;)

I'd love tips on survival stories that are more feel goody and positive. Any I should read?

Ps My own "Escape" story was originally set in ... a dystopian US, and they were going to head north or south and get stopped at the wall. In the end I chickened out and did a half-arsed find-replace to Germanify some of the names.

Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Jason Samson

I guess using guns is just a US male fantasy and the post-apocalyptic stories are just a vehicle to fulfill that? ;)

Using guns as opposed to trucks, bombs, blades, clubs, ad nauseam. In places where there were tight gun controls prior to a social collapse, people didn't have a problem finding ways to kill. Run over, stabbed, blown up, bludgeoned, dead is dead.

Even in relatively stable environments with extremely tight gun control laws, people still get killed, and at the same rate or higher than the US. The only real difference is the US doesn't bury it under a word smithed definition.

We can change cultures and definitions, but human instincts are the same worldwide across all racial, ethnic, and cultural lines. The instinct to survive is as primal as it gets and does on a regular basis, override any sense of social norms and acceptance.

Replies:   Jim S  Uther_Pendragon
Jim S 🚫

@Remus2

You're correct in pointing out that absence of guns does not remove man's killer instinct. In case you need more examples other than what you gave, tribes on New Guinea and in the Amazon don't have guns either, but seem to find a way to kill other tribes when hunting territories overlap. Spears along with bow and arrow make suitable weapons when hunting, either food or other men.

So if society ever collapsed to a point where guns were no longer available, or were never available due to current government policy, I have no doubt there would be blood once groups come into contact and can't (or don't want to) resolve competing wants through negotiation. That is a solid premise for any post-apocalyptic tale. Peace, love and understanding might be a great title for a song (as well as being a great song) but it just isn't realistic.

Replies:   Conradca
Conradca 🚫

@Jim S

A good case for the collapse of society would be assuming Hillary won the 2016 election and the crimes she committed become public. Then she attempts to seize all private firearms. This is possible and even likely.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Conradca

A good case for the collapse of society would be assuming Hillary won the 2016 election and the crimes she committed become public. Then she attempts to seize all private firearms. This is possible and even likely.

It's neither possible or likely as she now has almost zero chance at the presidency. I don't see the DNC giving her a third chance anyway it's sliced. In fact, the DNC railroaded the best two candidates they had this last go round. That being Sanders and Gabbard. Had the DNC gotten behind Gabbard, she very likely would have been president by 2021. Now they have to hope Bidens apparent Alzheimer's/dementia doesn't kick in before whomever his running mate is can be sworn in; if in fact he can make it there. Anyone voting Democrat better be thinking about that.

The constitutional crisis likely to ensue if he does win but doesn't make it to January 20th could very well be a viable scenario. Especially if the DNC loses the house this cycle. The line of succession goes to the Speaker of the house. If the house flips this cycle, it would set up a scenario where the VP would be Republican and the President a Democrat.
Then there is the Congressional vote as required by Article II succession. If Congress can't agree on making the secession permanent, it adds another wrinkle to the shitstorm that scenario creates.
There are times when Biden seems lucid and together, then other times when no sane/together person would say what he does. The DNC running out town their viable candidates in favor of someone like that made no sense to me at all.

You can reverse that scenario replacing Democrat with Republican and still end up in the same shitstorm. Regardless of party, putting up anyone even remotely of questionable physical or mental health is playing with fire.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫
Updated:

@Remus2

The constitutional crisis likely to ensue if he does win but doesn't make it to January 20th could very well be a viable scenario. Especially if the DNC loses the house this cycle. The line of succession goes to the Speaker of the house. If the house flips this cycle, it would set up a scenario where the VP would be Republican and the President a Democrat.

IIRC, there has only been one occasion where a candidate died before the EC Vote happened. (They actually died shortly before election day; the dead guy didn't win) So it's an unusual scenario to say the least. But while Biden's mental acuity may be in question, his general health seems to be okay. So it unlikely that he's going to die before being able to assume office.

The "wrinkle" in all of this is he could be the first exercise of the 25th amendment being invoked on a PotUS-elect, nevermind a sitting President. Which could be an interesting game of musical chairs.

Probably be a case of

Step 1) Win the election,
Step 2) Get the electors to cast their votes,
Step 3) Have congress ratify the results,
and
Step 4) Immediately move into an invocation of the 25th amendment on the PotUS-elect effectively making the VP-elect the President on the 20th of January.

At which point the new President can nominate a new VP and congress would ratify the selection(as happened with Ford; in accordance with the 25th Amendment, only the sitting President can nominate someone to fill a vacant VP seat) and a new VP would be sworn in.

There is no need for an "acting VP" while that is going on, the Speaker of the House, whichever party controls it, would still be Speaker, they'd just be second in line for PotUS until the new VP was sworn in.

But if Biden (or Trump) somehow died between when the Electors voted and when the results are ratified and the deceased had won the EC.... That could get complicated based on how I understand the rules currently work. As the choice becomes ratify the nomination of a dead man, or revote. Except the rules for a re-vote stipulate they can only vote for someone nominated by an elector for that position. As the VP was nominated for the VP position, and not the Presidential one....

Replies:   Remus2  Michael Loucks
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Not_a_ID

Never said physically ill as in heart or other such condition, just the high potential he has alzhiemers and or dementia. The latter two being cause for removal/ineligibility.

Doesn't really matter if it's a D. I. Or R. The scenario has strong potential to bring down the US government, if not outright, then by paralysis. It is a weakness in the system that has never been addressed. One foreign governments could exploit.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@Remus2

Doesn't really matter if it's a D. I. Or R. The scenario has strong potential to bring down the US government, if not outright, then by paralysis. It is a weakness in the system that has never been addressed. One foreign governments could exploit.

It would give the hardcore "but.. but... We're a democracy" crowd serious heartburn, but for most everyone else they may not be thrilled with whatever happens, but they'd likely roll with it.

It is a pretty extreme edge case scenario, albeit one that Biden is making people very painfully aware of. Even as they wish it would happen to the current President.

The 25th Amendment provides plenty of clarity on the matter, if the President is unfit, he can either resign, or be removed by his cabinet with the consent of Congress.

At which point the VP assumes the presidency and can nominate a new VP, or not as they desire(LBJ didn't nominate one, and instead waited until re-election to fill the vacancy. That wasn't the only time the VP spot sat vacant for a year or more)

Prior to the 25th Amendment things were far more dodgy, IIRC, there are claims that Taft suffered a stroke, and afterwards his wife was defacto "acting president" for a substantial portion of his Presidency. That wouldn't fly today.

But basically it boils down to who wins control of the House of Representative vs who wins control of the White House. As that would determine whether or not they decide to ratify the decision of the Electoral College in the event it went in favor of a dead person.

I would almost fully expect a partisan outcome on that scenario, if the dead person belonged to their party, they'd ratify it and allow the VP to assume the role by default. If the dead person belongs to the other party, they'll probably void the result and revote according to the existing rules(where the VP technically can't be nominated, and neither can the dead guy)... Which means the person who lost the EC gets to become PotUS and the Senate then has a nightmare on their hands in regards to what they're going to do about the VP.

Replies:   Remus2  StarFleet Carl
Remus2 🚫

@Not_a_ID

Prior to the 25th Amendment things were far more dodgy, IIRC, there are claims that Taft suffered a stroke, and afterwards his wife was defacto "acting president" for a substantial portion of his Presidency. That wouldn't fly today.

There is some evidence something similar happened with Reagan in his second term. He was showing slight signs of alzhiemers just prior to election of the second term, but he started sounding like Biden does now when he was three years into the second term. I think Nancy was the defacto president the following year. Bush quickly distanced himself from Reagan immediately after his election, with a whole lot of hate and discontent between the staff of both presidents. The sniping between them definitely played a role in getting Bill Clinton elected. "Nancy made us do it" didn't play well in the public eye.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Not_a_ID

It would give the hardcore "but.. but... We're a democracy" crowd serious heartburn, but for most everyone else they may not be thrilled with whatever happens, but they'd likely roll with it.

Especially since the United States is NOT a Democracy. We are a Representative Republic, and if proper social studies was still taught, people would know that.

Maybe saying the Pledge of Allegiance again might help. "... to the Republic, for which is stands ..."

Oh, and my wife is the Director of Nursing at an Assisted Living Facility with a memory care unit attached. She's seen the tapes of Biden. He's definitely got some dementia, Alzheimer's, and maybe sundowners as well.

Replies:   PotomacBob
PotomacBob 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

Oh, and my wife is the Director of Nursing at an Assisted Living Facility with a memory care unit attached. She's seen the tapes of Biden. He's definitely got some dementia, Alzheimer's, and maybe sundowners as well.

Well that settles it then.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@PotomacBob

Well that settles it then.

Since she's qualified to diagnose and recommend treatment for residents ...

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

Since she's qualified to diagnose and recommend treatment for residents ...

The problem is trying to diagnose without interaction, and being limited to what edited materials others make available.

I'll agree Biden looks to be declining mentally, but just because it looks that way doesn't mean what we saw was an indicator of dementia or Alzheimer's. They could have been indications of campaign fatigue for a number of the earlier gaffes, and the ones during lockdown to being outside his normal "comfortable" element with inadequate preparation.

Still not great, but certainly much more benign.

Replies:   Remus2  awnlee jawking
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Not_a_ID

Many of his recent gaffes were recorded from his home while under lockdown. It's hard to blame campaign fatigue in light of that.

As for remote diagnosis, I agree there could be mitigating factors. Not many, but the potential is there. Therefore I've stated it as "appears to be" and other such words. To be fair, it wasn't long ago that the democrats tried the remote diagnosis idea on Trump. What's that saying about the goose and gander again?

As for outside his normal comfort zone, can't buy that one. He's applying for the job of president. Nothing about that job is inside a normal persons comfort zone.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

To be fair, it wasn't long ago that the democrats tried the remote diagnosis idea on Trump.

They did it to Regan with Alzheimer's.

Of course Regan ended up with an official diagnosis of Alzheimer's not long after he left office.

awnlee jawking 🚫

@Not_a_ID

The problem is trying to diagnose without interaction

Doesn't a formal diagnosis require a brain biopsy?

My understanding is that Alzheimer's can only be suspected until post-mortem.

AJ

Replies:   Dominions Son  Remus2  Not_a_ID
Dominions Son 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Doesn't a formal diagnosis require a brain biopsy?

Depends on what you consider a "formal" diagnosis.

Personally I would consider going to a doctor's office and the doctor telling you "You have Alzheimer's" to be pretty formal even if there isn't a definitive medical test backing it up.

Remus2 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Doesn't a formal diagnosis require a brain biopsy?

https://www.radiologyinfo.org/en/info.cfm?pg=alzheimers
https://www.alzheimers.net/how-is-alzheimers-diagnosed/
https://www.webmd.com/alzheimers/guide/making-diagnosis-tests#2-2
https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/how-alzheimers-disease-treated

Depends on who you ask. However, in the US, the FDA has approved a few drug treatments to slow and mitigate early to mid stages alzheimers. So yes, formal diagnosis can occur without being dead.

Not_a_ID 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Doesn't a formal diagnosis require a brain biopsy?

My understanding is that Alzheimer's can only be suspected until post-mortem.

I'm given to understand CT and MRI scans are capable of detecting it, the only question mark on that right now is how advanced it needs to be in order to detect it. But it does leave a very noticeable "fingerprint" that can be seen by the right imaging equipment.

Michael Loucks 🚫

@Not_a_ID

There is no need for an "acting VP" while that is going on, the Speaker of the House, whichever party controls it, would still be Speaker, they'd just be second in line for PotUS until the new VP was sworn in.

There is an argument that the legislation which puts the Speaker (and the President Pro Tem of the Senate) in line for succession is unconstitutional. You can be sure that would be raised if the Speaker (or President Pro Tem) were from a different party than the President whom they were set to replace.

There are other complicated and interesting scenarios that would create constitutional crises, but most of them are relatively far-fetched and unlikely.

As for what happens if the President-elect dies - the Vice President Elect becomes President. See Amendment XX.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫
Updated:

@Michael Loucks

There is an argument that the legislation which puts the Speaker (and the President Pro Tem of the Senate) in line for succession is unconstitutional. You can be sure that would be raised if the Speaker (or President Pro Tem) were from a different party than the President whom they were set to replace.

There are other complicated and interesting scenarios that would create constitutional crises, but most of them are relatively far-fetched and unlikely.

The chain of succession beyond VP is clearly stipulated in subsequent amendments to be "as congress may direct" so that legal challenge wouldn't be likely to get very far.

Although the one crises scenario that could happen is the President dies or is removed from Office. VP assumes the Presidency. Congress rejects any VP Nomination brought forward by the PotUS, then PotUS dies or is removed from office again during the same term, resulting in the Speaker assuming the office of President.

If the Speaker is from the rival party, THAT could certainly trigger a crises event.

So far, post 25th Amendment, we have a sample size of 3, in one case(Johnson) the VP post remained vacant, no nomination was made, but the Democrats held the Presidency and the Speaker of the House seat.

The second time, a Republican(Nixon) was PotUS and under threat of impeachment by a Democrat controlled congress and replaced his VP(with Ford). President subsequently resigned, the "new" VP became PotUS, and nominated another person to fill the VP position again(Nelson Rockefeller). And congress approved the nominations even with Impeachment proceedings looming overhead, or immediately behind them.

Ford still remains the only person to have become PotUS without having been elected into either the office of President or Vice President by the states in the nearly 230 year history of the office.

But with the current crew in control of Congress, if Pence resigned tomorrow, I highly doubt the Dems would ever approve anybody Trump nominated to replace Pence.

I have doubts Pelosi would allow Pence to nominate a replacement for himself in the VP position should the reverse happen either(Trump leaves office early, Pence becomes PotUS), the nomination would be voted down consistently.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Not_a_ID

I have doubts Pelosi would allow Pence to nominate a replacement for himself in the VP position should the reverse happen either(Trump leaves office early, Pence becomes PotUS), the nomination would be voted down consistently.

He would be allowed to nominate whoever he chooses. It's just that it has to be approved by both the House and Senate both.

If you ever read the Irving Wallace novel, 'The Man', or watched the 1972 movie with James Earl Jones as Douglas Dillman, you'll see how the line of succession works, albeit in a fictional world. Doug Dillman beat Barack Obama by 40 years.

Oh, and it goes VP, Speaker of House, President Pr-Tempore of the Senate, then Secretary of State. In the Wallace novel, the VP died of natural causes, then an old building in Europe collapsed, killing the President and Speaker.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

He would be allowed to nominate whoever he chooses. It's just that it has to be approved by both the House and Senate both.

And that's what I alluded to with the whole:

I have doubts Pelosi would allow Pence to nominate a replacement for himself in the VP position should the reverse happen either(Trump leaves office early, Pence becomes PotUS), the nomination would be voted down consistently.

He could nominate anyone he wants, but Pelosi would make sure the nominee never gets a majority vote in support of it in the House.

Uther_Pendragon 🚫

@Remus2

Even in relatively stable environments with extremely tight gun control laws, people still get killed, and at the same rate or higher than the US. The only real difference is the US doesn't bury it under a word smithed definition.

Do you have any sigle specific example of that universal statemwnt? There has been a comparison of Seattle to the Canadian city narest to it. The murder rate is muchhigher in Seattle.

Replies:   Remus2  StarFleet Carl
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Uther_Pendragon

Specific example;

35. Homicide statistics too vary widely. In some developing countries, the statistics are known to be far from complete. Figures for crimes labelled as homicide in various countries are simply not comparable. Since 1967, homicide figures for England and Wales have been adjusted to exclude any cases which do not result in conviction, or where the person is not prosecuted on grounds of self defence or otherwise. This reduces the apparent number of homicides by between 13 per cent and 15 per cent. The adjustment is made only in respect of figures shown in one part of the Annual Criminal Statistics. In another part relating to the use of firearms, no adjustment is made. A table of the number of homicides in which firearms were used in England and Wales will therefore differ according to which section of the annual statistics was used as its base. Similarly in statistics relating to the use of firearms, a homicide will be recorded where the firearm was used as a blunt instrument, but in the specific homicide statistics, that case will be shown under "blunt instrument".

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199900/cmselect/cmhaff/95/95ap25.htm2010/2011

There is one of many where the numbers are manipulated and terms smithed.

In the US, homicides are reported en total, no exclusions for self defense, or lack of conviction. Let us not forget homicides are recorded if it was suicide in the US as well.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hsq/health-statistics-quarterly/spring-2011/narrative-verdicts-and-their-impact-on-mortality-statistics-in-england-and-wales.pdf

That becomes important given the UK definitions and their coroners narrative verdict. Remember the previous quote.

"homicide figures for England and Wales have been adjusted to exclude any cases which do not result in conviction, or where the person is not prosecuted on grounds of self defence or otherwise."

If you want to dig, there is much more to be found along these lines.

I don't personally agree with how the US does it either. If someone kills themselves with a gun, well it's attributed to gun violence. If someone uses a gun in self defense, it's the same.

Of the offenders for this sort of tinkering, the French are the worst offenders, but no western nation is free of it including Canada. Rather than attempting to call me out, why don't you research how it is Canada does it rather than blindly accepting the narrative you wish to believe.

Replies:   Tw0Cr0ws
Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Remus2

Then there is Japan, where if a husband kills his wife and children and then kills himself it is called 'family suicide' to keep from calling it murder-suicide like it would be called in the US.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Tw0Cr0ws

Suicide in Japan and other places in Asia is a much bigger problem than many realize.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/minority-report/201406/asian-honor-and-suicide

The number of suicides in Japan exceed the number of homicides in the US for 2018.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm

Yet there is this snippet from times.com

According to the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, Japan has one of the world's lowest murder rates at 0.2 per 100,000 people in 2017 (compared with 5.3 per 100,000 people in the U.S.).

Obviously Japan doesn't count its suicide statistics in that as some other countries do.

Replies:   Tw0Cr0ws
Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Remus2

In Japan if you kill your wife and two children before you kill yourself it is four suicides not three murders and one suicide.
Suicide is honorable, murder is what those Americans do.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

In Japan if you kill your wife and two children before you kill yourself it is four suicides not three murders and one suicide.
Suicide is honorable, murder is what those Americans do.

Sad but true.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Uther_Pendragon

There has been a comparison of Seattle to the Canadian city narest to it. The murder rate is muchhigher in Seattle.

Vancouver, BC, has per capita rate of 1.99 per 100,000, versus 3.74 per 100,000 for Seattle, for 2017. Whereas Bellingham, WA, had a 0.0 per capita rate in 2016 and 2018, with a 2.26 in 2017.

However ... both cities have nearly identical suicide rates, AND Vancouver also has what's called medically assisted dying, which is NOT counted in any homicide rates, which it would be in Seattle, because that's against the law in Seattle.

Of course, for 2018, Canada shows a total of 651 homicides for the whole country. For 2018, Chicago ALONE had 591. (For 2017, Canada had 666, Chicago had 691.)

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@StarFleet Carl

Chicago is an anomaly among major 1st world western countries. It's been broken a very long time as well.

However, imo, the most important point to remember is this; human nature doesn't recognize international borders. At its roots, all the usual suspects for homicide exist everywhere people do. Jealousy, greed, covetousness, anger, betrayal, etc.

The premise that any one country is immune, or even somehow less succeptable to those root causes for homicide, is simply a lie.

It can also reliably be said that every country wants to paint themselves in the best possible light. No politician anywhere will be honest and forthright with negative information, and it doesn't get much more negative than homicide rates. It should come as no surprise to anyone capable of independent thought, that politicians of all stripes would want the books cooked on those kind of statistics

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

Chicago is an anomaly among major 1st world western countries.

Given that Chicago is not a country, I have to disagree with that statement.

On the other hand group Chicago with major third world cities and Chicago would probably still stand out like a sore thumb.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Dominions Son

No it's not a country, but it is an anomaly among first world nations. The level of violence and corruption there is more like what you'd find in Caracas or other similar third world large city.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

No it's not a country, but it is an anomaly among first world nations

No, it's an anomaly among first world cities. Not being a nation it can't be an anomaly among first world nations.

The level of violence and corruption there is more like what you'd find in Caracas or other similar third world large city.

And you either didn't read or didn't understand the second half of my last comment.

Caracas takes lessons in corruption and violence from Chicago.

Remus2 🚫

@Jason Samson

Certainly if it could be convincingly used as the cause of fuel shortages, which become food shortages, which become marshal law, which become ...?

That it would easily do. Most freighters and tankers use GPS to cross the oceans. Crews of those ships have been minimalized via automation.

https://www.gps.gov/applications/marine/

DGPS (Differential GPS) is not fully implemented, but in the near future, even harbor navigation will rely heavily on it.

Even if the ships could be operated without GPS, it would take months to spin up sufficient crews capable of old school navigation.

PlaysWithWires 🚫

@Remus2

it would take months to spin up sufficient crews capable of old school navigation.

Not so - that is still a requirement. Although paper charts have largely been replaced by ECDIS (electronic charts), all ships above a certain size are still required to have a compass (SOLAS regulations) and sextant.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@PlaysWithWires

Not so - that is still a requirement. Although paper charts have largely been replaced by ECDIS (electronic charts), all ships above a certain size are still required to have a compass (SOLAS regulations) and sextant.

You missed the point. The crews rely heavily on GPS and autopilot. So much so most of the voyage is turned over to the autopilot. The ship can have ten thousand gadgets, but without the trained personnel for them, they are only so much dead weight.

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/11/05/2018-24127/tankers-automatic-pilot-systems

While the Coast Guard acknowledges that computer malfunctions and errors can lead to major disasters, these systems are hardwired to steering systems and not intended to be connected to a network.

The Coast Guard concurs that requiring a competent person to be ready to change immediately from manual steering to autopilot or vice versa under the supervision of the officer of the watch when operating in areas of high traffic density, restricted visibility, or other hazardous navigational situations is an appropriate restriction for the safe use of autopilots by tank vessels. Currently, when transiting the navigable waters of the United States, tankers are never without officer of the watch supervision, as referenced in 33 CFR 164.13(c), meaning that a competent person who can manually steer the vessel is already on board and ready to take over should the need arise.

The latter quote is what you base your comments on. Reality is another story. Instead of an entire crew of competent people, only 'a' person is required.

Why? Because they rely so much on GPS and the autopilot that uses that GPS. You can guarantee that Maersk, ExxonMobil, or any other multinational isn't going to put on any more people than the law requires, nor are they going to allow those crews to manually operate the craft when that cuts into their bunker.

So yes, it is so.

ETA; If your investing in anything the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) impacts, you'd better have a better than average understanding of all forms of shipping. You can rest assured greed plays heavily into the problem.

That's before we get to the overall shortage of people.

http://www.professionalmariner.com/March-2018/As-more-talent-jumps-ship-maritime-industry-faces-wave-of-uncertainty/

https://news.usni.org/2016/03/22/u-s-facing-looming-shortage-of-merchant-mariners

https://safety4sea.com/global-supply-demand-seafarers-2/

A

Not_a_ID 🚫

@Remus2

Even if the ships could be operated without GPS, it would take months to spin up sufficient crews capable of old school navigation.

At least as of 2004, the US Navy still required the Navigation Departmant to break out the sextant and ship's chronometer in order to take readings on where the ship was located at least twice a day.

And electronic charts that cannot be used without GPS are #%&@

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Not_a_ID

At least as of 2004, the US Navy still required the Navigation Departmant to break out the sextant and ship's chronometer in order to take readings on where the ship was located at least twice a day.

And electronic charts that cannot be used without GPS are #%&@

That is concurrent with my research which was last verified August of last year, though the people I spoke to stated it was three times in twenty-four hours. However, that doesn't address the commercial fleets, nor how much geospatial delta can develop in eight hours.

They also concurred with your opinion of electronic charts for what it's worth.

Mushroom 🚫

@Remus2

However, under International Maritime Law, each ship must have a working mechanical chronometer and a sextant, along with paper charts to cover their entire route.

And most ship licenses (including Master and Captain) require the individual to be familiar with the use of a sextant.

That is still done in the US Navy to this day. If you want the coveted Porpoises, you need to show you can use these methods of navigation.

And much of our military actually does not use GPS, other than as a backup. While every piece of the PATRIOT missile system has GPS, all placements are done old school, with map, compass, and surveyors tools including a sextant. The GPS is only used as confirmation, all placements are still done as they were 40 years ago.

Uther_Pendragon 🚫

@Jason Samson

It seems the US view of post apocalypse is Mad Max where everyone starts out armed and shooting first... , whereas if there was a real emergency I can't imagine any of my neighbors doing anything but trying to help each other. I'd even help the neighbors I don't like much! I guess using guns is just a US male fantasy and the post-apocalyptic stories are just a vehicle to fulfill that? ;)

Most post-apocalypse shoot-em-up stories are written to get a shoot-em-up story. The break-down of civilization is just a good way to make it happen. I have a story where a guy and a gal become lab partners and then lovers and then an old married couple with a teen daughter. Nobody ever tells me that most lab partners don't end up that way.

Uther_Pendragon 🚫

@Jason Samson

It seems the US view of post apocalypse is Mad Max where everyone starts out armed and shooting first... , whereas if there was a real emergency I can't imagine any of my neighbors doing anything but trying to help each other. I'd even help the neighbors I don't like much! I guess using guns is just a US male fantasy and the post-apocalyptic stories are just a vehicle to fulfill that? ;)

Most post-apocalypse shoot-em-up stories are written to get a shoot-em-up story. The break-down of civilization is just a good way to make it happen. I have a story where a guy and a gal become lab partners and then lovers and then an old married couple with a teen daughter. Nobody ever tells me that most lab partners don't end up that way.

Remus2 🚫

@Grant

The end result sounds plausible. By what mechanism does this happen in your mind?

Replies:   Grant
Grant 🚫

@Remus2

The end result sounds plausible. By what mechanism does this happen in your mind?

Hadn't thought about it much myself, just found the article & it's estimated impact of the loss of the GPS network and thought it would give authors an other option to use for their stories.
By itself, it would cause the stock markets to tank, GFC style, and so much is done using the internet these days, which relies on the communications networks, which relies on GPS for it's timing. A 60-90% hit on available bandwidth would have dire consequences.

Like many major social upheavals & large scale local leading to global conflicts in the past, something that would have had a negative impact but nothing Earth shattering in & of itself, but combined with other factors in play at the time, ended up leading to great levels of conflict.

ChiMi 🚫

A Kessler event satellite destruction chain-reaction (like in Gravity) would end us. It is not just GPS, all communication and observation from space would stop. The first would tax the underground communication cables and the second would lead to a rise in local military or terrorist activity without anyone knowing about it or seeing anything.

https://io9.gizmodo.com/what-would-happen-if-all-our-satellites-were-suddenly-d-1709006681

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@ChiMi

A Kessler event satellite destruction chain-reaction (like in Gravity) would end us. It is not just GPS, all communication and observation from space would stop. The first would tax the underground communication cables and the second would lead to a rise in local military or terrorist activity without anyone knowing about it or seeing anything.

Eh, not as much as some might think. IT would disrupt a lot of things, but it would likely be recoverable. It's just going to suck big time for trying to get anything into orbit, or out of it.

You'd be going back to Zepplins and Blimps getting a lot of use(at very high altitudes), as well as propeller driven drones. So prepare for a life almost out of steampunk at that point.

paliden 🚫

For anyone that interested...

http://stuffin.space/

Jason Samson 🚫
Updated:

This is a timely article https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/study-finds-that-a-gps-outage-would-cost-1-billion-per-day/

There, some experts put $money$ values on a GPS outage. From there, its just to convince the reader that a breakdown in law and order can follow.

And convince the reader that, furthermore, its plausible that our intrepid hero finds himself the alpha male in a town of sex-staved young ladies... etc ;)

Jason Samson 🚫
Updated:

First, GPS:

FWIW the Russians regularly jam GPS over large areas, including areas of neighbouring countries. Its been in the news a lot over the past year, and here are some recent articles about it:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/03/russia-is-tricking-gps-to-protect-putin/

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/nato-fears-russia-jamming-its-gps-systems-war-they-might-have-solution-61437

Second, life after the apocalypse:

I don't think any of us carry much weight when postulating what would _really_ happen in some future where dystopia spreads.

All we have to do is write an entertaining story based on it?!

To my eyes, the loss of GPS is not a very exciting way for dystopia to start. The old stalwarts asteroid or nuclear war seem more wow? Even the day-after-tomorrow climate-change is kind of wow, whereas GPS loss is kind of less explosions?

But I could imagine a compelling drama set in a country facing economic collapse, possibly effected by economic war, state-sponsored terrorism of the financial markets, etc etc. In that, the loss of GPS could indeed play a large part.

I'm sure I read a story on SOL about a man who sets up a gated community in an alternative-now economic depression in the States?

Keet 🚫

Why limit a new type of cause to civilization collapse to just GPS? GPS==satellites. A better concept would be a situation where ALL satellites are lost. Which means GPS, weather forecasts, spying, communications will be lost or severely limited. That will have a much bigger impact than just losing GPS and is a situation that could occur over a part of the globe. Depending on which part creates different scenarios on how the world/countries will respond and it could be a trigger to world war III.

Replies:   Jason Samson
Jason Samson 🚫

@Keet

Perhaps a massive solar flare or strange shockwave from another galaxy that EMPs the whole planet back to the stone age?

Most modern cars don't work. Some do. As soon as we run out of gas, though, there is no more. Perhaps the intrepid heroes rig up an old nodding well in Texas with mule-power or something?

That, when they find gaps in their busy social schedules from shooting other men and satisfying the urgent loinal needs of the large young female population they find themselves protecting, of course! ;)

Replies:   Keet
Keet 🚫

@Jason Samson

Perhaps a massive solar flare or strange shockwave from another galaxy that EMPs the whole planet back to the stone age?

That has been written before. Grant (OP) suggested a new scenario by loosing the GPS system. That's a hard thing to get without loosing other satellites. I thought more about an EMP that disables satellites but doesn't interfere down on Earth. That would be a new scenario although I don't know if it's possible to have an EMP disable all satellites 'in view' without reaching the Earth surface too.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Keet

It's not so hard to imagine how that could happen. You wouldn't even need to take out the satellites themselves, just the ground control stations.

https://gssc.esa.int/navipedia/index.php/GPS_Ground_Segment

While each GPS satellite has four atomic clocks for timing, relativistic effects, operational matters (station keeping etc) ends up requiring constant correction from the ground.

Replies:   Keet  joyR
Keet 🚫

@Remus2

It's not so hard to imagine how that could happen. You wouldn't even need to take out the satellites themselves, just the ground control stations.

Yes, of course that's a possibility but I was thinking more along the lines of a natural occurrence like solar flares. Seems more usable as a new scenario for a story about the collapse of civilization.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Keet

https://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/august/sun-082310.html

Nuetrino storm frying and or disrupting the nuclear clocks on-board the GPS satellites is a possibility.

Replies:   Keet
Keet 🚫

@Remus2

Nuetrino storm frying and or disrupting the nuclear clocks on-board the GPS satellites is a possibility.

Might be a good fact-item for the writer who picks up the scenario I presented. One of the interesting things I found is that a writer can use a lot of the current science and research in his story. It's a hot subject, so a lot of information. Either correct or presumed just adds to the amount of data that can be used. It's fiction after all ;)

joyR 🚫

@Remus2

While each GPS satellite has four atomic clocks for timing, relativistic effects, operational matters (station keeping etc) ends up requiring constant correction from the ground.

If that is the case (and I have no reason to doubt you. How about a scenario where someone introduces a random error into the system? Enough to cause tankers to be off station enough to collide, random enough to not instantly cause distrust in the system..?? (Obviously everything else using GPS would/could be affected).

Just a thought.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@joyR

How about a scenario where someone introduces a random error into the system?

Tomorrow Never Dies, 1997, Pierce Brosnan as James Bond in that one.

BlacKnight 🚫

@joyR

If that is the case (and I have no reason to doubt you. How about a scenario where someone introduces a random error into the system? Enough to cause tankers to be off station enough to collide, random enough to not instantly cause distrust in the system..?? (Obviously everything else using GPS would/could be affected).

GPS was actually deliberately designed with a selective access feature, which added a pseudorandom wobble to the signal, so that only users with the appropriate key (i.e., the U.S. military and allies) could get a truly accurate position fix from it. It operated that way until 2000, when Clinton ordered selective access turned off, due to increasingly widespread circumvention of the measure and the advent of other methods of denying enemy use of the system.

The newest GPS satellites don't support selective access, but for the older ones, it'd just be a matter of turning it back on.

Replies:   Radagast
Radagast 🚫

@BlacKnight

A friend of mine was playing with GPS during Gulf War I, he claimed that accuracy went from tens of meters to 1 meter when the bombing started. This suggests that the signal had always been deliberately degraded to give false intelligence to the Russians.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Radagast

Early consumer grade GPS was artificially limited by the DOD to +/- 200 feet. This was stopped by presidential order during the Clinton administration.

Survey grade GPS is accurate to the millimeter but the units cost upwards of $10K each.

Replies:   Radagast
Radagast 🚫

@Dominions Son

Thanks. I recall in the late 80s or early 90s reading of the first GPS map system for cars in Tokyo. Each unit cost as much ad a new Toyota at the time. Based on what you have said, that would have to have been the 90s.

For those interested in the effects, rather than cause of societal collapse for veracity in their stories, try googling Selco, One Year In Hell, surviving in Bosnia.
This will take you to a true tale of life under siege when power, water, fuel, medicine and food supplies all stopped and the central authority disappeared.

Ferfal is another blogger who wrote on the partial economic collapse with resulting societal degradation in 1990s Argentina.
Total or partial collapse. Take your pick.

Outies by Jennifer Pournelle is a good science fiction story with a society collapsing under the effects of foreign blockade / military intervention as the backdrop to First Contact with an alien race.
Set in the Co-Dominion universe of her father Jerry Pournelle and his collaborator Larry Niven, she drew on her background as an archeologist in occupied Iraq,dependent on mercenary PMCs to keep her alive as material to create the world she wrote in.

Remus2 🚫

@joyR

If that is the case (and I have no reason to doubt you. How about a scenario where someone introduces a random error into the system? Enough to cause tankers to be off station enough to collide, random enough to not instantly cause distrust in the system..?? (Obviously everything else using GPS would/could be affected).

That has already occurred in a limited fashion.

https://www.wired.com/2012/09/gao-drone-report/

Among other things, the report urged the Transportation Security Administration to come up with a plan to secure operation centers for unmanned drones, recommended the government formulate privacy protections to head off "abuses" and also pointed out safety concerns that need to be addressed regarding GPS spoofing and jamming.

https://www.gpsworld.com/spoofing-in-the-black-sea-what-really-happened/

We've heard a lot in the news recently about GPS spoofing, mostly centred on the story of ship spoofing in the Black Sea. Between June 22-24, a number of ships in the Black Sea reported anomalies with their GPS-derived position, and found themselves apparently located at an airport.

Based upon the extremely odd behavior of the ships and one plane involved, I suspect GPS tampering in at least two of the incidences listed below to have played a role in the 'accidents'.

The following all occurred in 2017, four of which with Chinese assets nearby/shadowing;
USS Fitzgerald - collision with MV ACX Crystal container ship.
USS John S McCain - collision with Alnic MC container ship.
USS Antietam - ran aground.
USS Champlain - collision with a large South Korean Fisher.
USS Benfold - collision with a Japanese tug boat.
C2A Greyhound transport plane crashes into the sea.

I know any organization has a certain level of incompetence within their ranks, but six incidences in a year stretches credibility to the limit. Three of those can clearly be attributed to incompetence, the others not anywhere near clearly.

Not_a_ID 🚫
Updated:

@joyR

If that is the case (and I have no reason to doubt you. How about a scenario where someone introduces a random error into the system? Enough to cause tankers to be off station enough to collide, random enough to not instantly cause distrust in the system..?? (Obviously everything else using GPS would/could be affected).

Just a thought.

It's a conversation related to one I remember having with some CombatID people back around 2006. But enough on that one. :)

That said, the automated systems are supposed to be integrated with RADAR, and even if you spoof the GPS data a craft is using to generate telemetry, you're not going to make the RADAR fail to see something it clearly can see. (doubly so when the Navy systems are going by ship's gyro, not GPS)

The US Navy ships had no excuse for what happened. At least by 2004 standards, which was my last time on a ship.

It's possible they were overly reliant on ADS-B type system information over their own sensors. But they shouldn't have been doing that, because that telemetry can be spoofed. As such it is one of those whole "trust, but verify" situations when you're dealing with sources of uncertain provenance.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Not_a_ID

The US Navy ships had no excuse for what happened. At least by 2004 standards, which was my last time on a ship.

It wasn't the US Navy ships that hit either the Fitzgerald or the JSM. Both were hit amidship by the container ships.

In the case of the Fitzgerald, the MV ACX Crystal was recorded turning into the Fitzgerald at the same time as going to flank speed.

In the case of the JSM, all available tracking went dead five minutes before it was hit, then came back shortly thereafter.

Even still, there should have been someone watching and reacting to the situation. In that way, you're correct that there should have been no excuse. If the commercial craft were steered into the cruisers as I suspect, those container ships aren't exactly fast boats. A warship should have been able to avoid a hostile move like that.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

In the case of the JSM, all available tracking went dead five minutes before it was hit, then came back shortly thereafter.

But GPS will always be perfect when self-driving cars need it :)

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@awnlee jawking

But GPS will always be perfect when self-driving cars need it :)

At least until the car drives you off into the Pacific or Atlantic Oceans.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

A petrolhead I used to work with had an early GPS unit installed in his car. It used to tell him he was driving round Southampton while he was driving round Reading. I seem to recall it once told him he was driving in the English Channel.

AJ

Jason Samson 🚫

The collision of two satellites could cause a debris cloud that takes out a whole swathe of satellites in a chain reaction.

As mankind marvels at the fantastic light show as the debris descends to the earth, the world becomes horrorstruck by news of the fate of the astronauts on the space station. And as they are watching the news in horror, suddenly static...

And then the steady effects of losing gps and comms satellites etc start to slowly chip away at our systems that depend on them, bringing oil production etc to a halt and slowly taking us back to the stone age...?

I'm not saying this could really happen, obviously. It's just a plot device.

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

A meteor shower of micro-meteors all about the size of gravel, but A LOT of them. Even an object the size of a dried pea has enormous kinetic energy if it is moving over 40,000 mph. The satellites that are behind the Earth will run into the debris field from all the ones that were destroyed. Air resistance protects the planet by burning them up before they reach the ground.

Everyone expects a massive dinosaur killer, but this would be more like a shotgun blast.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

A meteor shower of micro-meteors all about the size of gravel, but A LOT of them. Even an object the size of a dried pea has enormous kinetic energy if it is moving over 40,000 mph.

An object moving at 40K mph would take an enormous amount of friction heating from the atmosphere. Most micro meteors just burn up in the atmosphere and never hit the ground at all.

Replies:   Tw0Cr0ws
Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Dominions Son

Air resistance protects the planet by burning them up before they reach the ground.

You must have skipped over that part.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

What you described is a threat in the space environment. It's a low risk threat though. Most sources for it have long since been plowed through. A new source (read collision in space) is always a possibility.

joyR 🚫

For a really different take on the collapse of civilisation, simple have oil priced in a currency other than the dollar.

The US national debt is already long past being repayable making the country bankrupt long ago. Without the need for the rest of the world to buy dollars in order to buy oil... USA economy crashes, depression escalates to civil war. Nobody else cares until US attempts to solve its problems with military action against the world oil producers.

garymrssn 🚫

It was just a blog post. It wasn't very long, but it contained just the right words and everybody who read them, believed.

Then it went viral.

And the world as we knew it wasn't...

SGTStoner 🚫

The larger issue of our over-dependence on potentially fragile technology is quite valid. Yes, the internet and our communications systems have some remarkable resiliency built-in by design and practice, but if they actually did fail the impacts would be catastrophic. There's been some concern for a while about SCADA systems used in power generation, and the problem hasn't at all been entirely resolved. No power? All your tech stops working.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫
Updated:

@SGTStoner

if they actually did fail the impacts would be catastrophic.

It's times like this that I am very reminded of that comment from the Larry Niven novel, Oath of Fealty.

Think of it as evolution in action.

You have no power, sucks to be you! In the meantime, I have hand crank flashlights, a bicycle powered generator, and the Foxfire books in dead tree format.

Replies:   garymrssn
garymrssn 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

"Think of it as evolution in action."

If evolutionary history is a predictor, Homo Sapiens is on the verge of extinction.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@garymrssn

If evolutionary history is a predictor, Homo Sapiens is on the verge of extinction.

I actually doubt that. We're actually a pretty damned difficult species to kill. Not only can we adapt to our environment, we make the environment adapt to us. Thus we have people living all the way from the Arctic Circle to the Equator. Complete with snow skiing in Dubai.

Now, a hell of a lot of people dying, due to a major armed conflict, that sure seems to be getting closer and closer every day.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

I actually doubt that. We're actually a pretty damned difficult species to kill. Not only can we adapt to our environment, we make the environment adapt to us. Thus we have people living all the way from the Arctic Circle to the Equator. Complete with snow skiing in Dubai.

Now, a hell of a lot of people dying, due to a major armed conflict, that sure seems to be getting closer and closer every day.

I'm on the fence about it all considered. I agree that killing us completely off is unlikely to say the least.

Managing to maintain even 18th Century level technology after the fact? That is another matter. Even 30 years ago I'd say enough people had the skills needed for it to be possible. But we're hitting the point where I'm dubious about the under-lying skills being available in sufficient numbers for it to happen now.

Automation and mechanization has knocked out so many of "the human elements" from those "low level" functions, that should those systems fail, we're probably screwed as a knowledge based society.

That isn't even getting the "unknown variable" of how large of a population is needed to maintain a "viable society" at the level we currently enjoy.

My guess is its pushing in the million+ range even with automation. And in an apocalyptic scenario, the odds of being able to get those people "in the right places" or to even know where those places are, are in the slim to none category.

Throw in the matter of how decentralized everything is at present, and the very decentralization ends up increasing the number of people needed considerably as you have to provide support for "the points in between."

Replies:   LupusDei
LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

@Not_a_ID

Automation and mechanization has knocked out so many of "the human elements" from those "low level" functions, that should those systems fail, we're probably screwed as a knowledge based society.

Let's take this to the logical conclusion and use as The catastrophe, in form of rather mundane economic collapse due to extreme inequality.

Even today large part of the 1% or so of population who provide the others as mass producing farmers operate with razor thin profit margins in an objectively unpredictable environment. While some are getting rich, those mostly do it not by profits of the farming itself, but by successfully averting traps set by bulk traders, as that's where most of the "added value" is. The product's growing cost is often minor part of the end asking price in the consumer market, and producer's earnings is a minuscule amount of that minor part, often only positive because implied long time expenses are neglected (like deforestation, soil salination, etc ecological costs, or even more blatant unpayable deficits in form of credit or subsidies). Curiously we are living in a world where people starve next to overproduced and thus not profitable food.

It is even worse in manufacture if you think about it. The actual production costs are nearly nothing. There's Chinese "toy" clocks for asking price of less than a banana. And that's after that bulky plastic is somehow transported from eastern Asia to northern Europe. Well, to be fair that banana has probably traveled just as much, and equally has most of the price derived from that voyage. But the point is, it's functional electronics in full form that is dirt cheap even after has re-sold at least three times and hauled around the world.

And ubiquitous automation promises to cut those real costs further.

Programmers are long since figured out that despite their work by nature is easily divisible, there's a finite efficiency of doing so. The "social" part of workflow grows exponentially and soon surpasses the real part crashing the overall productivity.

I believe as a society in whole we are way past the point most of our expenses are not the raw resources but esoteric "services" covered by virtual money without any intrinsic value.

I think you all know the story of the carpenter...

...who only wanted to make stools. Simple, sturdy, yet artisan, best stools in the world. He was a simple man and didn't want to deal with trade, so he had to hire a salesman. And they could afford a driver for deliveries. But neither had much understanding of salaries and taxes, so they did need an accountant. Who pointed out they need an marketing specialist. And then a designer. About then they had to replace the old driver, so they hired a human resources manager to do so. And a CEO, to lead all those people. And so on. Long story short, about when they hired lawyer to fight patent infringement, it was indicated by the financial department that profits are predicated to dwindle if costs wouldn't be cut. So they decided to fire the carpenter.

Well, I believe in functional society there's reasons why it couldn't happen globally, because the "carpenter" will move on to start next company. On smaller scale it happens all the time, often with tragic consequences on the individual level.

It's not to say all those 9+ other people besides that carpenter are useless or unnecessary. Of course, the full organization can be ridiculously successful in selling obscenely overpriced stools to people with disposable income, on global scale. The trick is, none of them really need that stool anyway.

However, if enough "carpenters" are fired at too fast a rate, the whole pyramid scheme it is will crash.

Managing to maintain even 18th Century level technology after the fact? That is another matter. Even 30 years ago I'd say enough people had the skills needed for it to be possible. But we're hitting the point where I'm dubious about the under-lying skills being available in sufficient numbers for it to happen now.

Why you want to maintain short living transitional phase?

I think most fail scenarios necessary lead to islands of high tech in a wasteland situation, dark ages complete with wizards and (perhaps mechanical) dragons.

Actually, I do believe it had happened, and the history of (European) antiquity is chronicles of decadence.

Thus there's the debate that the burn out of easily accessible oil may prevent next iteration to ever reach back our level. That may or may not be needlessly pessimistic view, but depends heavily upon how much knowledge is preserved. Note it must not necessarily be in immediately applied form, however the shelf time of any form of storage is finite.

There's a much pressing issue anyway, connected to the same literal food chain. We may as well be way past where we can't actually survive without technology. There's no such thing as wildlife left, only few open air zoo's.

Any "survivalists" who think it is possible to live "from the land" for any length of time are grossly delusional. They should study hydroponic farming instead of hunting, but that's of course not even close that flashy and manly...

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@LupusDei

Thus there's the debate that the burn out of easily accessible oil may prevent next iteration to ever reach back our level. That may or may not be needlessly pessimistic view, but depends heavily upon how much knowledge is preserved. Note it must not necessarily be in immediately applied form, however the shelf time of any form of storage is finite.

With some of what has been observed on more than a few oil fields, "field depletion" may be less of an issue than you'd think. At least so long as it decades them a couple centuries to get back to that point. Some of those fields have allegedly demonstrated an ability to "self-replenish" at a very slow rate, which they haven't fully accounted for as to how that is even happening just yet.

Any "survivalists" who think it is possible to live "from the land" for any length of time are grossly delusional. They should study hydroponic farming instead of hunting, but that's of course not even close that flashy and manly...

If they're anywhere near a population center of more than about 2 thousand people, "the land" isn't going to be supporting that population for very long if the support infrastructure goes poof. Unless there happen to be very large stockpiles of agriculture products/livestock that humans can eat nearby.

So Topeka, Kansas is likely to be in great shape, but Boston, MA is likely screwed, as would be NYC, LA, etc.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Not_a_ID

So Topeka, Kansas is likely to be in great shape, but Boston, MA is likely screwed, as would be NYC, LA, etc.

I may have read too much John Ringo, but I really don't see that as a problem, more like a solution TO a problem we already have in this country.

richardshagrin 🚫

Much of what you mention is true of the United States and other "first world" nations. But lots of humans aren't overwhelmed by technology. There are countries in Africa and Asia and probably Latin America where things will go on just like normal, for there, if we lose computers and electricity and internal combustion engines. You may not enjoy living there, but humanity is still fairly resistant to loss of technology.

Replies:   Keet  LupusDei
Keet 🚫

@richardshagrin

Maybe, but remember that a lot of those same people depend unknowingly on others for food, water, etc which can't be produced without electricity. At the same time those are probably not the kind of people that will rebuild a civilization like we know it. Maybe the Amish stand a better chance with their aversion to (public) electricity. They will have to adept too but stand a better chance than the average stockbroker ;) But the same goes for them: they won't rebuild society as we know it now. Although I have great respect for their lifestyle in general I have nothing with the religious background.

Replies:   Not_a_ID  PotomacBob
Not_a_ID 🚫

@Keet

They will have to adept too but stand a better chance than the average stockbroker ;) But the same goes for them: they won't rebuild society as we know it now.

They'd be in a better position to not be as disrupted, assuming they're left alone, which they probably wouldn't be.

But even they'd be impacted by it. They may use most of the modern amenities, but they do love their modern farm implements(that are horse drawn rather than using powered equipment) for example.

That isn't the only place where modern conveniences have entered into their world as well, but even for them, I think you'd find metal working in the form of blacksmithing is nearly non-existent as a trade. They obtain new equipment, or get a welder to make needed repairs.

PotomacBob 🚫

@Keet

Maybe the Amish stand a better chance with their aversion to (public) electricity.

What does that mean? Do the Amish avoid one kind of electricity but not another?

Replies:   Keet  StarFleet Carl
Keet 🚫

@PotomacBob

What does that mean? Do the Amish avoid one kind of electricity but not another?

amishamerica.com: Do Amish use electricity?

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@PotomacBob

Do the Amish avoid one kind of electricity but not another?

Short answer, yes.

Long answer - either follow the link by Keet, or just realize that the key word was PUBLIC. So long as it's something that they can do themselves, they can use it (and presuming their local church allows it).

So it's not uncommon for them to have a generator at the house, powering lights or appliances. You might see a box out by the road, that's where a phone will be located. Can't have it in the house. They can buy a car, but might have to hire someone to drive it for them, or have the radio removed. They'll use a tractor in the fields - but it'll look like something from Green Acres, with steel wheels and the old bouncing metal seat, no air conditioning.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

Sounds like you're conflating Amish with Mennonites and or Quakers. What you described more closely resembles Mennonites than Amish.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Remus2

Sounds like you're conflating Amish with Mennonites and or Quakers. What you described more closely resembles Mennonites than Amish.

The part of Indiana where I'm from and further north had a lot of three very closely related groups. Mennonites, Amish, and German Baptist. A lot of it depends upon their specific church and leaders.

You know you're in the right part of the state, though, when you're stuck behind a horse and buggy in a McDonalds Drive Thru.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

You know you're in the right part of the state, though, when you're stuck behind a horse and buggy in a McDonalds Drive Thru.

That wouldn't be the Shipshewana (Shipshe) McDonald's would it? Big Macs with udder milk...

Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

with udder milk...

What other kind of milk is there? Unless you are thinking of bull's 'milk'?

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Dominions Son

What other kind of milk is there? Unless you are thinking of bull's 'milk'?

Non-pasteurized straight from the udder.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Remus2

Shipshewana

Nappanee, not that far from Amish Acres. Man, that was good food. (Amish Acres, not McDonalds.)

Replies:   PotomacBob
PotomacBob 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

Man, that was good food. (Amish Acres, not McDonalds.)

I read an amusing piece in a local newspaper's letter to the editor column, in which the writer had visited both McDonald's and Chick-fil-A, and wrote a comparison piece on the hash browns. McDonald's won.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@PotomacBob

McDonald's and Chick-fil-A, and wrote a comparison piece on the hash browns. McDonald's won.

McDonald's used to make really great fries. Even though I used to work there, I still used to like their fries. I prefer fresh Sonic Tater Tots now over anyone else's hash browns.

I'm VERY spoiled now, having grown up and lived for so long where fast food wasn't readily available. Go in either direction from my house and you've got a Sonic and a Braums (BEST ice cream - and their milk is literally dairy fresh, since they won't ship further away from their own farm than what the trucks can get haul within a few hours), and every other place - Burger King, Mickey D's, Taco Smell, Arby's, KFC, Dairy Queen, three different pizza places - all before you get to the next major north-south street.

LupusDei 🚫

@richardshagrin

It boils down to the nature of the catastrophe. In case of some quasi magical loss of technology it may or may not be true for semi isolated farming communities, that those may prove to be most resilient. In scenarios involving major social unrest, those are natural easy targets of aggressive "survivalist" refugees. Best scenario is some form of symbiotic relationship there after.

Major plague has high chance to wipe those out, just out of lesser readiness and understanding.

An event that damages infrastructure/ecosystem would devastate those too. Few may adapt in time, but mostly those communities are conservative.

Finally, it's always questionable how truly independent they are in the modern world where even Inuit drive snowmobiles. Going back to manual labor may or may not be easy.

LupusDei 🚫

The topic is about unlikely cause of social collapse, right?

How about incautious introduction of applied immortality. I seriously doubt current society can survive such intact.

Let's handwave it away to a level of a simple magic pill you have to take once 25-30 years to stop (or at least dramatically slow) aging. The catch, the pill costs $1M a piece. That's actually dirt cheap. Perhaps there's objective reasons it can't go under that price even besides supply and demand. It has to be regulated because demand is obviously nearly infinite.

Good luck working around issues of slavery where sponsors pay for the treatment of young people, for various targeted purposes.

And how many wouldn't go nuts when basically said, sorry, but you're the last generation to die of old age.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@LupusDei

How about incautious introduction of applied immortality. I seriously doubt current society can survive such intact.

Let's handwave it away to a level of a simple magic pill you have to take once 25-30 years to stop (or at least dramatically slow) aging. The catch, the pill costs $1M a piece. That's actually dirt cheap. Perhaps there's objective reasons it can't go under that price even besides supply and demand. It has to be regulated because demand is obviously nearly infinite.

If you've been following research regarding senescence, it's very likely that in the next 10 to 20 years we'll start seeing human treatments that will at least significantly improve healthspan for most people, and expected cost for some of the promising options is a lot less than what is spent to treat the ("old age") illnesses such senescence treatments would be likely to nearly eliminate for most people. (Some prediction are now saying as early as 5 years)

If the animal studies are able to be replicated in humans, it's very likely we'll be looking at the vast majority of humans who die of natural causes to doing so somewhere in the 100+ year old range rather than he ~80-something year old life expectancy we have now. And that those 90-somethings will be comparably healthy to someone in their 40's or possibly even younger today.

I doubt that will trigger a collapse of human society though. If anything, I think it would trigger a much bigger push into space and some other social aspects changing. It should be interesting to see us enter into a stage where an 80 year old can be reasonably expected to be able to keep up with a 30-something.

It should be noted that in many of those trials, while they can get the mice(and other lab animals) to give all the indications and test results comparable to when they were younger or their younger cohorts, most of those treatments do not result in them significantly exceeding the maximum end of expected life spans for those animals. Just that most of them seem to making it to the maximum end of the spectrum.

Replies:   LupusDei
LupusDei 🚫

@Not_a_ID

If the animal studies are able to be replicated in humans, it's very likely we'll be looking at the vast majority of humans who die of natural causes to doing so somewhere in the 100+ year old range rather than he ~80-something year old life expectancy we have now. And that those 90-somethings will be comparably healthy to someone in their 40's or possibly even younger today.

I doubt that will trigger a collapse of human society though. If anything, I think it would trigger a much bigger push into space and some other social aspects changing. It should be interesting to see us enter into a stage where an 80 year old can be reasonably expected to be able to keep up with a 30-something.

Yeah, I too don't think that expending health span or other gradual increases would trigger serious problems, especially if the costs involved are seen as reasonable by most. It still does set up increasing divergence between the rich/educated and poor/ignorant, but it sort of always been there.*

Rapid and extreme expansion of that divergence, to the point where class divide becomes subspecies divide, literally or perceived, is when problems can arise. Thus the rather extreme example. Even then it's likely controllable.

~

*There's a little story.

Some years ago already a local celebrity girl, a writer, politician and what not, happened, as is seemingly quite popular around here now, have her last child after forty (44 or so). And yeah, she's looking for all intends and purposes in mid twenties still.

So one day she's driving through the countryside, and see a woman signaling, and decide to take the hitchhiker, despite toddler in the car and all. The other woman wears grey clothes and kerchief around her head, lacking teeth, and generally looks old, and calls her daughter (as is traditionally cute form of address in Latvian).

The convention sparks, and the other woman goes on to rant about her health and hard life in general, and how her children moved abroad and she doesn't see her grandchildren, except for complicated communication in distance, made worse by how she don't understand computers and such, but in her age, wouldn't be learning anything anymore, why bother...

Long story short, eventually it turns out, she's not even fifty either, just from completely different strata.

Our upscale girl published the experience quite in shock, claiming she didn't reveal her age, judging that to be too cruel if she'd be believed anyway.

~

Now, one needs outliers on both ends to build up the contract, and it is easy to look down on the one who couldn't take care of herself. But that gap will only continue to rise.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@LupusDei

Long story short, eventually it turns out, she's not even fifty either, just from completely different strata.

Our upscale girl published the experience quite in shock, claiming she didn't reveal her age, judging that to be too cruel if she'd be believed anyway.

~

Now, one needs outliers on both ends to build up the contract, and it is easy to look down on the one who couldn't take care of herself. But that gap will only continue to rise.

Genetics and other factors play into that as well. My family is one of those that seems to have done reasonably well in the genetic lottery. I only have one Centenarian in the tree, but octogenarians are hard not to find. And the vast majority of them made it into their 80's before health issues greatly curtailed their activities. And those ancestors were predominately farmers, teamsters, and mechanics, hardly the upper crust of society.

But my family doing "descendency research" in conjunction with genetic genealogy to verify what we have also have learned it doesn't take much for that life expectancy to drop like a rock. Where we'd watch a line that routinely had people making it into their 70's or 80's(when they didn't die to wars or accidents) suddenly start having entire generations of 4+ children on certain branches dead by 65. Where the genetic part starts becoming somewhat evident when you work up the line for the spouse and find a family with a history/trend of much shorter lifespans.

Radagast 🚫
Updated:

Black Destroyer by A.E.Van Vogt was the original take on society destroyed by immortality. It may have been a inspiration for the Highlander 'quickening'. When every one is immortal, as long as they can consume the life force of others, eventually the world turns into a massive cannibal feast until there is only one starving life form left.

Some years ago there was a novellette in Analog, IIRC, where life renewal treatment is available to the super rich, at the cost of everything they own. Normies need not apply. The inventor was a devout socialist and decided to tax the rich through his immortality foundation.

Of course, people who can make one fortune have the skill set to make another. They will also plot to keep their seed money hidden, and have relationships that can run from lover to enemy to lover over periods of centuries.

CRS being in full swing, I have no idea of the author or story name.

Lary Niven had the adults age and die while treated children are immortal in A World Out Of Time.

He also covered 'immortality' of a sort by grinding up the brains of corpsicles and injecting their RNA into the brain of kind wiped criminals. These resurrected dead have no rights as they wear the bodies of condemned criminals.

Radagast 🚫
Updated:

Regulation of immortality could be the means to build a social control system. Think the Padisha Emperor vs Fremen of Dune.

Religion and banking are the two most pervasive methods of social control, with a common background in the store houses of Babylon. The Papal Bull is a Babylonian Bulla, a single use encryption method for stored goods. The Pope wears the hat of the fish god Dagon.

The Shekel was a measure of grain in store at the temple. 3000 years later those symbols are still in use, by evolved versions of those organisations.

Control of the Spice or its earthly equivalent would eventually lead to the same religious /political control system. As CRS is a thing, people who are getting into their second millenium would probably have forgotten much that was, so Farenheit 451 would still apply for societal control. Edit the books and you edit the memories. Deny the Spice to those who don't comply with the modern dogma and you eventually outlive your heretics. No need to burn anyone at the stake.

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

After automation / robots replace most labor jobs and everyone will supposedly be given a stipend to live on: How long until the 'elites' look around and decide that aside from the ones they want to use for sex it would just be simpler and cheaper to kill off all the useless eaters? Seven billion slaves might seem cool, but supporting seven billion obese sofa vegetables? Not so much.

Replies:   Not_a_ID  LupusDei
Not_a_ID 🚫
Updated:

@Tw0Cr0ws

How long until the 'elites' look around and decide that aside from the ones they want to use for sex it would just be simpler and cheaper to kill off all the useless eaters? Seven billion slaves might seem cool, but supporting seven billion obese sofa vegetables? Not so much.

That depends on just how good the healthspan/lifespan treatments are. If it can keep someone both looking like they're in their 20's and capable of performing at that level, even as a 90 year old... Then so long as they're not one of those obese sofa vegetables, they'd probably be game to keep a lot of them around.

And from what they've been learning about metabolism in all this research, they'll probably be able to help a lot of people to burn off a lot of that excess fat by giving them their 20-something(or even teenage) metabolism back.

If you're still a tub of lard after that, well... ;)

LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

@Tw0Cr0ws

After automation / robots replace most labor jobs and everyone will supposedly be given a stipend to live on: How long until the 'elites' look around and decide that aside from the ones they want to use for sex it would just be simpler and cheaper to kill off all the useless eaters? Seven billion slaves might seem cool, but supporting seven billion obese sofa vegetables? Not so much.

Well, I'm quite a proponent of the Universal Guaranteed Income, although don't believe it can be actually implemented in real world (mostly because the change needs to be near-global to work as intended, and there's no undo button (people tend to mutiny if you give something and then take away again)).

The ideals behind it needs a good measure of optimism about human nature to understand (as do most socialist ideas, that's also why those tend to fail). From most cynical to esoteric:

0) for market to function money must flow. Inequality hampers cooperation (as do artificial equity), and everyone to be poor doesn't do it. You want to perpetually take money from everyone, and give them it just to keep up the game.

1) when significant part of population receives some kind of state managed help, it becomes simpler and cheaper to give the same to everyone, no questions asked, than scrutiny with kind of twenty different stipends she is or isn't eligible for. It means, there's no more state pensions, no unemployment leave, no student stipends, no food stamps, no nothing, everyone receives automatic payment and that's it.

2) it is observation that quite few roles that are seen as net beneficial to the society as a whole receive no compensation on personal level. Let's start with the freedom of the full-time mom (or daddy, for that matter): now they are fully dependent from their partner, who does benefit from their hard work, as do society as a whole, and while it's mostly working, it can easily become unhealthy. In extreme interpretation, even the said sofa vegetable provide services we don't even see or recognize, but somehow their mere existence increases productivity of someone else (in form of "free therapy," bouncing back ideas, serving as online chatbot or troll, for that matter etc). Yes, we're also deep in human pet territory here. The idea is that they deserve more autonomy and social insurance if their partner/host happen to fail.

3) There's the belief that wage slavery kills potential potential in potentially creative people who are pressed into mindless jobs for survival and stuck there, often resulting in degradation and destruction of personality when they could be potentially much more valuable to the society if pursued their dreams.

*There we arrive at "talent economy." When hard labor is off the scene, only thing that has value is creativity. You better have to be entertaining to stick around. Also, nobody cancels the one genius per million rule, and even "elites" need to recognize that potential in the "crowd", as it translates into profits directly. So you still need to educate everyone just to find the one gem.

(It was taken to the extreme in some story where only certain 'psychics' could provide spaceships with 'hyperspace jump' capabilities, and those are rather invariably born at flat random rate, regardless of other factors. The warmongering interstellar empires supported yuuuge disposable populations just to maximize production rate of those special abilities.)

4) It's the observation that well off people born into money choose to work more often than not, and (probably due to (3)) are even more productive and beneficial in their activities than the baseline. Psychology believes it's not a mere product of culture or upbringing, but deals with innate need to feel useful. Also volunteering, also look up (2).

5) so it becomes a society of artists, living in a culture of giving... Yeah, I know.

Earl 🚫

I remember reading somewhere that GPS satellites actually are sending information based off of several seconds before. The speed at which they are going is faster than the surface of the earth. Now instead of GPS ruining society... lets go all physics and say time itself has changed. Instead of 24 hours in the day it's 23. So GPS is shot to hell and people don't notice that the days is shorter at first. Any satellite link is whacky and DISH TV goes nuts. It takes a day or two to realize that it is not suppose to be this dark already. When people do notice their entire world view is shattered. Governments over react, business over reacts, everyone is demanding SOMEONE DO SOMETHING.

Replies:   BlacKnight
BlacKnight 🚫

@Earl

The way GPS actually works is:

There's a constellation of GPS satellites orbiting Earth about 20,000 km up, arranged such that there's always at least six of them in the sky of any given point on the surface. The GPS satellites contain extremely precise and accurate atomic clocks, and their orbits are known to a high degree of precision.

Each satellite constantly broadcasts a radio signal reporting its orbital position and the precise time. The radio signal moves at the speed of light, which is a universal constant: 299,792 km/s, very fast but not infinitely so. As such, it takes something between a tenth and a fifteenth of a second for the signal to reach a given point on Earth, depending on exactly where the satellite is in its orbit. (The speed of the satellite itself is irrelevant to this.)

The GPS receiver listens to these signals from multiple satellites, and by comparing the different satellites' time signals, it can determine the differences - tiny fractions of a second - in the time it took the radio signal to travel to it from each satellite, and from that, using the known constant speed of light, the differences in its distances to each satellite. Because each satellite is also reporting its own exact position, if the receiver can pick up at least four of the satellites, it can use those differences in distance from them to triangulate its own position, and also what the actual time is.

Replies:   Remus2  LupusDei
Remus2 🚫

@BlacKnight

An accurate summation for the most part. Don't forget the ground stations in that.

LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

@BlacKnight

...and also what the actual time is.

And for that to work, those satellite clocks have to take into account general relativity effects of different speeds of time in orbit and on surface. That's probably what @Earl had (actually) in mind. It's built in, and constantly synchronized in between the constellation and surface stations. I don't know the technical details to say how long it would take to correct if the baseline time on surface changes it's speed somehow.

The issue with that is that time itself has sense only in relation between objects, there's none "universal" time, so it rather hard to imagine event that would change one clock but not another in Earth surface/orbit system.

Well aimed asteroid impact could spin Earth up easily, shortening the day, but despite other obvious problems, it wouldn't change "time" or disrupt the GPS accuracy.

I remember reading speculation that the expected collision with Andromeda galaxy would probably catapult Solar system out of Milky Way for free flight in the intergalactic void (think of feeling lonely then!). Among other things, the change of vector, speed and environment density would do interesting things to the relative clocks (Solar System vs center of the combined galaxy), but I doubt a system so tight as surface and the GPS constellation would even notice. Well, if anything alike would exist those billions of years in the future.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@LupusDei

Well aimed asteroid impact could spin Earth up easily

That wouldn't necessarily require an impact.

A near miss from a large enough object and the gravitational interaction between the earth and the passing object could affect the earth's rotational rate.

Volcanoes and Earthquakes can affect the earth's rotation rate of rotation in both directions (depending on where and when) though the magnitude of the effect on length of day is typically milliseconds.

Glacial periods and interglacial warm periods have an impact to. A major glaciation shifts water mass away from the equator and towards the poles causing the Earth to rotate faster like an ice skater pulling in their arms during a spin. A warm period an melting ice does the opposite, water mass shifts towards the equator, and the Earth's rotation slows.

Replies:   Not_a_ID  joyR
Not_a_ID 🚫
Updated:

@Dominions Son

That wouldn't necessarily require an impact.

A near miss from a large enough object and the gravitational interaction between the earth and the passing object could affect the earth's rotational rate.

Yes, but even with Volcanic events and Earthquakes, even the largest events are only impacting things by a fraction of a fraction of fraction of a second.

In order to shift things by minutes, or the better part of an hour, you're talking about either an extinction level event from the impact, or an encounter with another "stellar body" that is likely to be of at least comparable mass to the Moon, and that it would pass close enough to disrupt things. (Closer than the moon)

And such a "flyby" by such a large body would be likely to trigger all kinds of cataclysmic "tectonic events" as well as seriously screw with the tides as well during its closest approach.

Volcanic eruptions, gigantic earthquakes, and "out of cycle" ocean tides which are likely to be a multiple of the ones normally experienced with the lunar tide. Basically we'd be looking at a global scale low-speed Tsunami hopefully with additional warning(as we should be able to detect the approach long before it can screw with the tides).

Dominions Son 🚫

@Not_a_ID

Yes, but even with Volcanic events and Earthquakes, even the largest events are only impacting things by a fraction of a fraction of fraction of a second.

I mentioned that the impact to length of day from any given event was on the order of milliseconds (thousandths of a second).

Then across multiple events, rather than building up, they would likely tend to cancel out.

Dominions Son 🚫

@Not_a_ID

you're talking about either an extinction level event from the impact

Personally, I think an actual impact is unlikely for a major shift in length of day. too much depends on where and angle of impact vs the ground and angle of impact vs the equator.

An impact too close to 90 degrees vs either the ground or the equator will have little to no affect on length of day no matter how big the object was or how fast it was going.

I think the biggest impact on length of day would come from a grazing impact, where angle of impact is near parallel to the equator and close to 0 relative to the ground, like just grazing the edge of a pool ball.

With such an impact, I think velocity will be more important than mass of the object and given it will mostly skip over the ground, direct impact effects to other than length of day would be less than catastrophic.

Replies:   Not_a_ID  LupusDei
Not_a_ID 🚫

@Dominions Son

I think the biggest impact on length of day would come from a grazing impact, where angle of impact is near parallel to the equator and close to 0 relative to the ground, like just grazing the edge of a pool ball.

With such an impact, I think velocity will be more important than mass of the object and given it will mostly skip over the ground, direct impact effects to other than length of day would be less than catastrophic.

I would agree on angle of (near) impact being important.

But Mass(and/or velocity) is going to be a major part of the equation. Inertia is part of that equation, and the earth is a very large and massive object. So anything able to impart a "significant change" that doesn't require extremely precise equipment to notice is going to need to either impart a significant amount of energy to the earth, or be able to absorb it. (shorter days or longer days as the case may be)

LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

@Dominions Son

With such an impact, I think velocity will be more important than mass of the object and given it will mostly skip over the ground, direct impact effects to other than length of day would be less than catastrophic.

Nope, as far I know or can imagine. (The actual math may be interesting, and likely more tricky than we expect.) If you go for speed instead of mass, the objects start to explode in mere contact with the atmosphere. Pretty soon we arrive at Killing Star scenarios: quite small inert impactor moving at relativistic speeds is basically all you need to melt average planet's rocky crust.

A larger, but still relatively small slower moving object would need to be absorbed to transfer all its energy, so the impact has to be not zero, but few degrees in. Those types of craters are downright ugly scars and tend to splash debris back into the orbit so we can get a new minor moon as collateral, after the ring condenses, that is.

So indeed, even with oceans washing over in one gigantic wave and tidal effects in mantle doing all sorts of interesting things, a close flyby by a planetary body is probably best bet to significantly change length of day suddenly.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@LupusDei

Prettty much agreed, a low mass object would need to hit at high speed. Flyby wouldn't work for that scenario(significant change in span of a day). But because of the amount of energy it would need to impart on an object as massive as the Earth is, it would presumably kill all life on Earth with the impact.

Which leaves planet sized "rogue objects" passing near the Earth at just the right trajectory in order for a tidal effect to slow the earth's rotation.

But even that gets pretty nasty pretty quick, due to the amount of energy being exchanged between the two bodies. The amount of tidal forcing involved would likely be triggering magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes across the planet. And the 9.0's would be on the low end of things.

Replies:   Remus2  Dominions Son  Tw0Cr0ws
Remus2 🚫

@Not_a_ID

http://astronomyonline.org/science/tidalforces.asp

Dominions Son 🚫

@Not_a_ID

But because of the amount of energy it would need to impart on an object as massive as the Earth is, it would presumably kill all life on Earth with the impact.

Energy that goes into killing all life on Earth directly from the impact is energy that is not going into changing the Earth's rate of rotation, and the reverse is true as well.

To make a significant change in the earth's rate of rotation, nearly all of the impact energy would have to go into changing the Earth's rate of rotation, leaving little or nothing for wide spread destructive impacts on the surface.

Replies:   joyR  Not_a_ID  LupusDei
joyR 🚫

@Dominions Son

Energy that goes into killing all life on Earth directly from the impact is energy that is not going into changing the Earth's rate of rotation, and the reverse is true as well.

That sounds like you are saying that having a couple of hundred bugs hit your windscreen lessens the damage to your car when you get hit by the truck head on...

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@joyR

That sounds like you are saying that having a couple of hundred bugs hit your windscreen lessens the damage to your car when you get hit by the truck head on...

Nonsense. I'm talking only about where the energy from a singular impact goes.

Not_a_ID 🚫
Updated:

@Dominions Son

Energy that goes into killing all life on Earth directly from the impact is energy that is not going into changing the Earth's rate of rotation, and the reverse is true as well.

To make a significant change in the earth's rate of rotation, nearly all of the impact energy would have to go into changing the Earth's rate of rotation, leaving little or nothing for wide spread destructive impacts on the surface.

With currently understood physics, you're not getting an impact event that is anywhere near "100% efficient" at transferring it's energy from one medium into a single medium, in this case, the rotation rate of a planet. Any planet.

The only way you can get something like that to work is if somebody gives an evil overlord a set of very powerful thrusters that by some means don't cause massive environment disruption simply from being turned on. Where he then starts using them to either slow or accelerate the planet's rotation at a rate controlled by him. In which case those "thrusters" would likely be in operation for decades to achieve the desired goal, and probably causing plenty of mayhem as he goes about doing so. ("Gravity Tugs" would very loosely operate on the same principle, except they're changing orbits, not rotational velocities)

For any "brief duration encounter" (which is measured in days or even weeks) to change the rotational rate by even an hour(in either direction), you're talking about a massive change in angular velocity on the surface, and that's going to cause significant mayhem.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Not_a_ID

For any "brief duration encounter" (which is measured in days or even weeks) to change the rotational rate by even an hour(in either direction), you're talking about a massive change in angular velocity on the surface,

True, which also means it will take a massive amount of energy. If the impact doesn't align just right to focus the vast majority of the impact energy into the Earth's angular momentum you aren't going to get a significant shift from a single impact.

and that's going to cause significant mayhem.

but not the typical kind of destructive effects of a astronomical impact.

Replies:   LupusDei
LupusDei 🚫

@Dominions Son

For any "brief duration encounter" (which is measured in days or even weeks) to change the rotational rate by even an hour(in either direction), you're talking about a massive change in angular velocity on the surface,



True, which also means it will take a massive amount of energy. If the impact doesn't align just right to focus the vast majority of the impact energy into the Earth's angular momentum you aren't going to get a significant shift from a single impact.

and that's going to cause significant mayhem.



but not the typical kind of destructive effects of a astronomical impact.

Okay, let's think about how to transfer energy without creating mayhem over the fragile crust of the planet through impact or tidal forces.

How about cosmic (magical) magnetic spinning top locking with Earth magnetosphere and gearing up the liquid innards directly?

Neutron star core fly-through of Solar System would end up in whole another level of mayhem and disruption... what else could have anywhere near the energies required for such a trick?

LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

@Dominions Son

Energy that goes into killing all life on Earth directly from the impact is energy that is not going into changing the Earth's rate of rotation, and the reverse is true as well.

Indeed. So, to construct survivable event we need to optimize energy transfer. Impact is (relatively) simple, but will waste too much energy on destructive effects no matter how well guided.

Hmm, just a thought, not so large, very very dense, and rather fast but not too fast impactor punches through the crust and sinks into the mantle directly... I vaguely remember speculation that's really bad idea, but maybe under the Pacific where it's the thinnest, and immediately cooled off by the water... leading to a massive tsunami of course, off-scale earthquakes all around and a year long rainfall globally for a nice finish. To speed Earth rotation up it has to hit West-to-East, right? So if it scratches beach in Ecuador, folds Galapagos islands inward, it then blows up Indonesia hitting from the inside out, or something like that. While what's left of Pacific spill over the tops of Himalayas...

In a flyby scenario all the energy transfer happens through tidal effects. A single event would probably require rogue planet to glide low enough it's none the better. However, what about capture? Lets us get another moon, in relatively low orbit, perhaps indeed with the eventual orbital period of the new desired length of day? Wait, it makes that thing geostationary.

So the excercise could be to fire as massive object as we dare into a near-miss that ends up in gravitational capture into geostationary orbit... with will be higher than the current geostationary, because of the added speed of rotation.

Perhaps it may atmosphere brake in the first approach, and of course there's still tides and shit, and not once, but regular decreasing intervals until the thing settles into the permanent orbit.

Hmm, would that fail the GPS system? If it survives (I would guess against it), it probably still works. Anyway, it's not likely the most pressing issue of the survivors, likely.

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Not_a_ID

Which leaves planet sized "rogue objects" passing near the Earth

... and then ripping the Moon away from Earth orbit.

joyR 🚫

@Dominions Son

That wouldn't necessarily require an impact.

A couple of stanzas of Vogon poetry should do it...

Remus2 🚫

F = ma

F-Force
m-Mass
a-Acceleration

The amount of force required to have an appreciable effect on the earth varies with the effect, but any of the above would be massive.
The calcs for the required force would be very complicated, but the one for the force is easy.

However it's sliced, mass most definitely has an equally important role.

Grant 🚫
Updated:

https://van.physics.illinois.edu/qa/listing.php?id=1031&t=earths-rotation-changing

For the most part, the Earth's rotation speed and the direction of the axis are (nearly) constant because of the conservation of angular momentum. You need to apply some external torque (an off-center push or pull) to change the angular momentum of an object, and to a very good approximation, there aren't any of these in space. So the Earth's rotation axis stays pointed at the North Star and each day lasts 24 hours and the sun always rises in the East.

BUT! The Earth's rotation axis doesn't point exactly along the axis of its angular momentum because it does have a tiny amount of lopsidedness to its distribution of mass. And the moon creates an asymmetrical tug on the lopsidedness of mass, and also causes tides in the water, which have to slosh around and are a little offset from the direct pull of the moon. The Sun contributes to the tidal bulges which the moon also pulls on. There are thus externally applied torques, and therefore some precession of the axis of rotation.

The rate at which the Earth rotates is also slowing down, ever so slowly. This happens because of the action of the tides from the moon. The change in strength of the moon's gravity from one side of the Earth to the other causes water to bulge on the side of the Earth towards the moon, and also on the side away. The Earth is turning all the time, also pushing the tidal bulges around. It turns out that some of the energy of the Earth's rotation goes into pushing the moon into a higher orbit, and some of its energy goes into frictional heating of the sloshing ocean water. The Earth's rotation rate slows at a rate of 0.005 seconds per year per year. This is enough to cause havoc with calculations of when and where solar eclipses were visible in ancient times. If the day is constant in length, then a different part of the Earth would be under the moon's shadow than if it were slowing down. The accumulated time difference is a few hours over the course of a couple of thousand years. Over the 4.6 billion year life of the Earth, this means that the day started out about 14 hours long.

Grant 🚫

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/azlh3/how_much_force_would_it_take_to_stop_the_rotation/

For numbers relating to angular impacts required to stop the earth's rotation.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Grant

The people in your link had 'way' too much time on their hands...

Remus2 🚫

The OP was focused on the GPS system. Stopping or changing the rotation of the earth, asteroid and other impacts etcetera, are all potential extinction level events. The GPS system would be a distant after thought in comparison.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

Just a comment - a really powerful storm can fuck things up, too, I've found.

It's no secret that I live in Oklahoma. We just had a massive straight line wind storm come through, 90 mph winds for more than 10 minutes of duration, followed by thunderstorms galore. No big tornadoes, though. Net result, no power for a big chunk of the metro area, and even worse, no cable or internet for even more.

I've just gone through 4 days of no TV (which is fine) and 3 days of no internet (which SUCKED!). Those Facebook memes that ask if you could live in a cabin for without modern conveniences - if you said yes, you're a liar. It's one thing to CHOOSE to do so, for a week or more. It's quite another to have it thrust upon you.

We kept power, otherwise we'd have had to leave. You can't do summer in Oklahoma without A/C.

Replies:   joyR  Remus2  awnlee_jawking
joyR 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

We kept power, otherwise we'd have had to leave. You can't do summer in Oklahoma without A/C.

Really? Nobody ever survived a summer in Oklahoma without A/C..?

How in the heck do you fit A/C to a Surrey...?? Remove the fringe...?

Remus2 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

Those Facebook memes that ask if you could live in a cabin for without modern conveniences - if you said yes, you're a liar.

Umm you should consider rewording that. We didn't get to the point of those 'modern conveniences' without having lived through history first.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Remus2

Umm you should consider rewording that. We didn't get to the point of those 'modern conveniences' without having lived through history first.

Somebody ELSE lived through it. Not me!

Hell, when I was younger, I didn't have a problem with heat. Did my basic combat training in Alabama in August. I'm not young any more. I want my air conditioning.

(Note as well that my complaints are conditional - I'm from Indiana, where yes, it does get to 100 in the summer, but doesn't stay there for long. Not down here, where the low at night might be 85, and it's above 100 for a week at a time or more. And yeah, I could probably handle a cabin in Montana or somewhere like that, on a river where I could fish, just sit back and watch the world go by, work on my hobbies. Not in the OKC metro area!)

awnlee_jawking 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

We kept power, otherwise we'd have had to leave. You can't do summer in Oklahoma without A/C.

In the UK campervans typically use 12V batteries, ie Direct Current. Perhaps Oklahomans should import them for when their Alternating Current fails ;)

AJ

Replies:   Remus2  StarFleet Carl
Remus2 🚫

@awnlee_jawking

Most/RVcampers in the states are 12v.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

Most/RVcampers in the states are 12v.

They also take AC power. Even just running the low voltage lights in most campers will drain the battery in less than a day. If it has an A/C unit, the A/C won't run off battery at all.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Dominions Son

Inverters are old tech, and most RVs have them for camp ground services. Why exactly did you feel it necessary to comment? Was there something factually incorrect in my statement?

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

Why exactly did you feel it necessary to comment?

Because the issue to start with was not having air conditioning after a summer storm power outage. While there are RVs with air conditioning. The Air Conditioner WILL NOT run off 12V DC. And since most RVs only have a car battery as the 12V DC power source,
The battery wouldn't last an hour trying to run the A/C.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Dominions Son

If it has an A/C unit, the A/C won't run off battery at all.

The battery wouldn't last an hour trying to run the A/C.

Which is it? Won't run at all or short lived?

I'm assuming your answer was this;

The Air Conditioner WILL NOT run off 12V DC.

https://www.rigidhvac.com/blog/dc-air-condition
There is an example of an aircon unit designed for it. That is just one of many examples.

I suggest you check your information before making erroneous statements.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

Which is it? Won't run at all or short lived?

Factory RV A/C units are set up to not run off the battery because the power drain would be too high. The same goes for Microwave ovens in RV's that have one built in. The gas/electric fridge won't run in electric mode on battery.

I own an RV, a travel trailer with a factory A/C. It does not run on battery. Not that it couldn't as a raw technical matter, but the power drain is too high for the batteries they come with.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Dominions Son

My Airstream doesn't have a problem with this setup.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

My Airstream doesn't have a problem with this setup.

I'm not that familiar with Airstream. Is it factory or after market. My family was long time Jayco, but the current, our first travel trailer (as opposed to a popup) is one of the River Forrest sub brands. The River Forrest is also the first we've had with an A/C.

With the Jaycos, we've seen the battery drain dead from just the low voltage lights in the built in fixtures in less than 12 hours.

With your Airstream, is the A/C factory or aftermarket? What does it have for a battery? How many amp hours? Do you know the amp draw on your A/C?

Mine is just a single deep cycle marine battery, the equivalent of a car battery for a boat. These batteries top out at around 100 amp hours.

Have you ever actually tried to run the A/C off of battery with no external power? How long did the battery last?

The one you linked to a a lot smaller and a lower BTU rating than the one on my RV. The specs show around an 8 amp draw. With a 100 AH battery that would give you around 12 hours assuming you aren't running anything except the A/C.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Dominions Son

I'll direct you to the Airstream website for factory specifications as I'm obviously not going to sit here and type them all out. It's the 27' model.

https://www.airstream.com/travel-trailers/globetrotter/

I've never timed how long the batteries held up boondocking before we upgraded. I do know it was at least six hours. It came stock with a dual deep cycles.

As for the upgrade, we did notice heavy usage of the media gear we installed drew more life than either the aircon or kitchen gear. If it were just the factory gear, we'd left it alone.

As for the upgrade, it's now 1,000 Ah lithium ion. We had the factory option 180 W solar setup, which we later upgraded to 600 W.

If you're running a single battery, the previous link aircon is viable.

Aircon is in fact viable for an RV without hookup.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

I've never timed how long the batteries held up boondocking before we upgraded. I do know it was at least six hours. It came stock with a dual deep cycles.

The spec page listed 2 different A/C units one was 30 amps, one was 50. The 50 amp unit is probably comparable to the one on my RV, but I only have a singe battery.

With two 100 AH batteries, that would give you a battery life just running the A/C of either 200 AH/30 amps = 6.6 hours. At 50 Amps it would be 4 hours.

If you're running a single battery, the previous link aircon is viable.

I have to disagree with this. No, I don't consider a 10-12 hour battery life viable.

We tend to go camping in more wooded areas. Too much shade for solar to work well. and where we are and generators are categorically prohibited in state campgrounds and also in most of the US Forrest Service campgrounds (which also don't have electric sites available).

Aircon is in fact viable for an RV without hookup.

Only with extensive and expensive after market modifications.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Dominions Son

Only with extensive and expensive after market modifications.

We are obviously going to be of two different opinions on that. 10-12 hr is subjective when it comes to viability.

I'll agree to disagree, but that's about it.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@awnlee_jawking

n the UK campervans typically use 12V batteries, ie Direct Current. Perhaps Oklahomans should import them for when their Alternating Current fails ;)

It's the heat, the heat I tell you - can't handle the heat without Air Conditioning!

Courtesy of the internet, it says the average temperature in July in the UK maximum is about 19, and typically is around 15. That's almost warm clothing time here.

Typically the entire month of July and August here is about 27, with 23 of those days above 32, and 5 of those days above 38.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

Typically the entire month of July and August here is about 27, with 23 of those days above 32, and 5 of those days above 38.

Ugh, I had to convert those to English. We've had a couple of hot spells too this August. It's being blamed on Global Warming, but it seems to me that they were caused by unusual air flows carrying hot air (and sand) from Africa.

AJ

Replies:   Remus2  StarFleet Carl
Remus2 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Ugh, I had to convert those to English. We've had a couple of hot spells too this August. It's being blamed on Global Warming, but it seems to me that they were caused by unusual air flows carrying hot air (and sand) from Africa.

The end goal of the global warming movement is 'carbon credits' (read carbon tax). If they actually cared, they wouldn't be taking a plane, they'd be teleconferencing. They wouldn't take a limo, they'd drive an efficient car or ride a bike.

There are many here old enough to remember the early predictions. Rising seas, temperatures, etcetera. None of which has happened as predicted.

Every time a heat wave happens, it's global warming. Every time a cold spell happens, it's climate change. All of which set off more direful predictions. Predictions that have yet to happen. I believe the latest one is the world's going to end in twelve years.

Give them a moment to consider and they can come up with a way to blame your burnt toast, stubbed toe, or bad cup of coffee on it.

Replies:   Tw0Cr0ws  Not_a_ID
Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Remus2

In the 1970's it was 'The Ice Age is coming! The Ice Age is coming!', and interestingly enough they were trying to sell the rest of us the same 'solutions'.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

I have some very old magazines with "ice age" articles listed. Popular Science, Time, etcetera. Obviously, those predictions went up in smoke as well.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

Were they basing their predictions on science or the Gambler's Fallacy, the idea that an ice age was overdue?

AJ

Replies:   Remus2  Dominions Son
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@awnlee jawking

They never played the overdue card. It was much the same as today, based on models and "science."

ETA:

https://web.archive.org/web/20160630234737/http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/journals/noaa/QC851U461974oct.pdf

There is one from NOAA circa 1974. It's the first article.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

There is one from NOAA circa 1974. It's the first article.

I found it physically very difficult to read but, if my understanding is correct, they used a 'same again plus a little bit more in the same direction' algorithm - which is surprisingly successful for weather forecasting.

We have far too little accurate data to know how effective the same technique might be for climate forecasting, where changes are measured over centuries.

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@awnlee jawking

We have far too little accurate data to know how effective the same technique might be for climate forecasting, where changes are measured over centuries.

Imo, it should be in terms of thousands of years not hundreds. It should also take into account cosmic and solar weather, which for the most part, it does not. Anything with the potential to change or otherwise play a role with the incoming energy from the sun (think albedo) must be factored in.

Cosmic spallation definitely plays a role. Changes in the isotopes, the resulting densities of the same, etcetera play a role. A role not well understood by anyone.

It doesn't help that climatology has become an echo chamber. They are fixated on carbon and carbon alone as the culprit. It's to the point of them walking around with blinders. If you question them, you're branded a "denier." That's gotten so bad that some places are actively forming and or pushing for laws to jail anyone who doesn't fall in lock step with them. In some circles, the word denier is said in the same tone as racist and pedophile would be. That is a very dangerous and disturbing development. Bradbury and Orwell are optimist when viewed against that backdrop.

Replies:   Tw0Cr0ws
Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Remus2

In some circles, the word denier is said in the same tone as racist and pedophile would be.

Or like infidel or apostate, it approaches religion with them in terms of fervor.

Remus2 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

Agreed.

awnlee jawking 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

religion

Oh well, since you've mentioned the 'r' word ...

In my 'chatting to God' experiment earlier this year, I asked what would happen to global temperatures between then and the end of this century. She replied that they would be lower.

I didn't ask for clarification, so I don't know whether that would be due to human intervention (disinventing fire?), natural phenomena or divine intervention. (She had previously said she would probably intervene if humans seemed likely to make themselves extinct, even though She didn't create us in the first place and She reckons there are too many of us).

AJ

Replies:   joyR
joyR 🚫

@awnlee jawking

She had previously said she would probably intervene if humans seemed likely to make themselves extinct,

So the first attempt ended with 40 days and nights of rain to wipe out EVERY living thing apart from one ship builders family and collected pets, but if 'nature' or ourselves threaten to make us extinct, she might intervene...

LupusDei 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

Or like infidel or apostate, it approaches religion with them in terms of fervor.

I'm a rather firm believer on this, despite being stout sceptic mostly.

If you're still listening, I happen to live in one of places most affected by the current warming, mostly beneficially so far.

We here (in Latvia) are used to chaotic weather, but I'm a beekeeper and descend of peasant family of a nation of highly educated peasants who see themselves as guardian wizards of an inherently fragile world. Also my grandmother happened to manage a small meteorology station, and we have kept making informal recordings since.

So I might as well go over family paper journals going back well into the sixties and bomb you all with senseless anecdotal evidence about snow cover thickness, vegetation periods, flowers blooming times, etc; eighty percent of what would be random noise and eighty percent of what's left perception bias. But the 2.5% of what remains... can we please agree the current warming trend is real? Because it is.

Next is this: https://xkcd.com/1338/

With that in mind it's easier to understand that we do produce carbon dioxide in geologically significant quantities. That's a fact. That said carbon dioxide does influence obvious trends of the climate isn't a fact. However, it is good conjecture, because of very nice correlation. Correlation doesn't prove causation, but may suggest some.

The scariest part is what we don't know. The Earth climate has been both significantly cooler and warmer than today and fluctuated between those depending on unknown factors. So we know that the air conditioning system of our nice spacecraft Earth has several distinctive regimes. We know we are tampering with it. We don't have a manual.

The alarmist predictions are just that, alarmist predictions meant as warning calls, caught up by ever sensational mass media and pundits with agenda.

The cooling trend was linked to aerosols in upper atmosphere. We did a rather good job to cut our production of those. Now there's even talking about doing intentionally, in order to regulate temperature. Yes, it's a bit insane.

Carbon dioxide. We very likely are doing a good job by releasing some into the circulation, there was even a risk of running out of free carbon dioxide, with dire consequences, as it is in high demand by vegetation. Also, nobody can say for sure we aren't actively preventing onset of the next ice age right now.

Sure, global warming can trigger ice age easily. There's two large natural "pumps" that drive the world ocean circulation system, both near Greenland. Influx of light freshwater from thawing ice shield may (or may not) disrupt the operation of those. If the worst happens, my home goes under the ice, as it had been not at all long ago (in geologic terms). Yes, that idea, in insanely exaggerated form, was used in Day After Tomorrow.

Triggers to the opposite may get flipped, may have been flipped. Thawing arctic permafrost releases huge quantities of methane, with is much more efficient greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Just to be said, imho, carbon tax is nonsense, it will never work. What's much better is Direct Air Capture. If anything like that proves to be viable we may eventually end up intentionally burning coal in order to prevent depletion of co2 in atmosphere.

The countless mystery factors. Yes, there could be any number of those, and they may have influence, but none are as clear and as strong as carbon. If we could at least stabilize carbon, we might see those weaker signals.

It is possible that we might enjoy warmer global climate with increased precipitation and perhaps even better patterns of it (remember that rain that destroyed 3 thousands year old architecture not intended for any rain ever), but it's dangerous to be too optimistic.

awnlee jawking 🚫

@LupusDei

However, it is good conjecture, because of very nice correlation.

I remember a claim that there was a stronger correlation with aircraft fuel usage. But given the rush to build more and bigger planes and airports, I presume it has either become deprecated or ignored.

AJ

Replies:   LupusDei
LupusDei 🚫

@awnlee jawking

I remember a claim that there was a stronger correlation with aircraft fuel usage.

Aircraft fuel was mostly hydrocarbon last time I paid attention. Its usage might as well have good correlation with overall economic activity, with the total emissions of carbon dioxide, so it might be great true joke.

Or are you claiming that a mysterious minor trace element found exclusively in aircraft fuel exhaust does happen to have much greater impact on global climate than anything, but the well known fact is hidden away to not threaten cashflow of few dudes? Sure, why not.

Replies:   awnlee jawking  Remus2  Remus2
awnlee jawking 🚫

@LupusDei

Or are you claiming that a mysterious minor trace element found exclusively in aircraft fuel exhaust does happen to have much greater impact on global climate than anything, but the well known fact is hidden away to not threaten cashflow of few dudes?

The article reporting the study that found the correlation did not specify the cause of the correlation, only that one existed.

AJ

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@awnlee jawking

The article reporting the study that found the correlation did not specify the cause of the correlation, only that one existed.

Any correlation below 100% could be pure coincidence.

Even at 100% correlation between A and B, there are still three possible causal relationships.

A causes B
B causes A
C (which you didn't even look at) causes both A and B.

Remus2 🚫

@LupusDei

https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA396143

There is a pdf at that link detailing a study for JetA, JP5, and JP8 jet fuels. JP8 was found to be lousy with trace elements in terms of ppb. JP5 comes in a distant second, with JetA being the cleanest.

I've no idea what the ramifications are from that. I do know there is an ongoing effort by the US Air Force in Tullahoma TN to clean it up. The folks I know there tell me the UK and Japan have assisted with the efforts.

Remus2 🚫

@LupusDei

Completely out of left field, but do you by chance live in Riga? I've been there twice on business (most things/information metallurgical in the region pass through Riga). There is a rye bread made there that I cannot find a decent recipe for here. Only the Finnish black bread could compare. If you happen to know anyone with knowledge of it, a real recipe (as opposed to the guess work found on the net) would be appreciated. The copies here are trash by comparison.

Replies:   LupusDei
LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

@Remus2

I do live near Riga, yes, and I know the bread you're talking about, we call any black bread rupjmaize (literally 'rough-bread'), but the 'real' one is special indeed. Unfortunately, at the moment I can't point you to a recipe. History considered poor peasant chow it has to be rather simple, but is expensive now, and cheaper almost-but-not-quite-that are flooded the local market too.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@LupusDei

Thank you for the reply. If I'd had any sense, I'd have sourced when I was last there. Keep me in mind if you happen across one in your travels please.

Replies:   LupusDei
LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

@Remus2

There is a rye bread made there that I cannot find a decent recipe for here.


I know the bread you're talking about, we call any black bread rupjmaize (literally 'rough-bread'), but the 'real' one is special indeed.

Okay, I looked it up in Latvian language sources and here is why you will fail:

1) flour -- you need a rough mill dark flour, alive and not refined, with bran and all. This is defining factor: once the flour is too fine or cleaned up, there's no going back, you can't make that bread anymore. The granularity of flour will have direct impact on texture, color and flavor of the bread. To be completely faithful to the traditional, you will have to mill rye grain in hand mill yourself. There's a reason feminine:miller is oftentimes used as synonymous to 'bride' in Latvian.

2) yeast -- it is repeatedly claimed that "no yeast is used" what is of course false and misleading: leftover or dough from previous time is used instead. More accurately, you will cultivate yeast naturally present on rye grain grown in clean natural environment without use of any chemicals. It is possible to substitute, probably.

3) owen -- it is claimed you can't really substitute traditional oven for anything, but approximations are possible. Traditional oven is a rather large, deep, very massive stone build oven where the fire is burnt directly in the working chamber until it glows, then the coal taken out, floor padded with tree leaves, bran or something and the bread loafs placed on it.

Apart from that the recipe is borderline simple: flour, water and a little bit of salt.

Pour flour with even amount (by mass) of boiling water and leave for two days in a warm place. Add leftovers from previous party of dough, little salt (it's said as roughter the flour as more salt you might want) water and more flour as seem fit, any flavor ingredients if you're so inclined (there's long list of possibilities, but none necessary) mix thoroughly and leave to ferment (no defined time, depends on activity of your yeast you "didn't use"). Remix, form into large heavy loafs and drop into the oven. Don't clean the (woden) bowl you mixed dough in, instead leave little bit behind for the next time (say thanks to gods and cover it up by a clean cloth). Temperature in the oven as high as 400 degrees C for first 10 minutes, then 180 degrees C for up to two hours (definitive time depends on the size of your loaf among other factors, the middle will not be baked if you take it out too soon). Some say, you will need to find a way to inject water vapor into the oven or else it will be too dry. Upon taking out of oven paint over with clean water or starch for the shining finish. Enjoy. Properly made can allegedly be stored in room temperature for months. Keeping in fridge is considered a bit of blasphemy, but actually practical, of course.

What, you don't have leftovers from the old dough? You're out of luck. Go to the neighbors and beg for some. Okay, if you do have bread left, you can try to reactivate it by drowning into clean warm water and leaving in warm place for some time. Or you can mix flour with water, leave for a day, then mix more flour and water in, leave for a day, repeat, until you think it has come alive. Or you can experiment with wine yeast until you find one that's suitable.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@LupusDei

I can make that work. I already have the bread oven, hand mill, etc. I'll have to find the right stone burrs for the mill but that should be doable. From your description, it's the grain size I've been failing at.

Thanks for the help.

ETA: That's probably why the Finnish version I've been making wasn't coming out exactly right either.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

ETA: That's probably why the Finnish version I've been making wasn't coming out exactly right either.

Was the finished Finnish version coming out thinnish?

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Yes. The mention of grain size was a smack yourself in the head moment for me. I've been using fine ground flour.

Replies:   LupusDei
LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

@Remus2

The mention of grain size was a smack yourself in the head moment for me. I've been using fine ground flour.

:) Glad I could help. It's right up in the name, rough-bread. Of course, only for those who knows the language. One might think that flour is flour and yeast is yeast, and oven is oven. Nope, when you want things just right the simplest bits turn out to be complex, even for the most brutal of breads. Dark, thick and heavy, it is said to smell for freshly plowed earth. We call it power bread. Served with honey and fresh, fat milk it almost killed some Chinese guests (well, perhaps mostly the milk, lol).

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@LupusDei

Just finished the first two trial runs. First effort was so-so, second was very close to what I remembered. Had to use a mortar and pedestal to get the grind right for now. Definitely on the right track. Thanks again.

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@LupusDei

During the Medieval Warm Period the wineries in England were so productive that they put a serious economic hurt on the wineries in France. World population was about 300 million give or take 50 million, and there was no modern industry.

Replies:   joyR
joyR 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

During the Medieval Warm Period the wineries in England were so productive that they put a serious economic hurt on the wineries in France.

Then skip forwards to 1683/84 when the 'Great Frost' occurred, the Thames was frozen over for a month and the 'Frost Fair' was held, yet again.

Anyone want to suggest what our current crop of climate change 'experts' would make of that happening now...?

Replies:   Remus2  StarFleet Carl
Remus2 🚫

@joyR

Anyone want to suggest what our current crop of climate change 'experts' would make of that happening now...?

The words 'climate change' would be applied. If it were a heat wave, it would get tagged as 'global warming.'

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@joyR

Anyone want to suggest what our current crop of climate change 'experts' would make of that happening now...?

Right now? They'd blame it on Trump.

Even in my lifetime, I've seen the articles going from 'Global Cooling' to 'Global Warming' and back again, except that since they're always wrong, now they're just saying 'Climate Change'.

No shit, Sherlock. The climate is going to change, one way or the other. While I don't disagree that the efforts of man may have affect upon it, no one can just say, Oh My God, it's all our fault, and the world will end in 12 years. (Unless you're AOC.) Al Gore did that 30 some odd years ago, after all, and ... um ... we're still here.

How about the year without a summer, in a geologic sense not that long ago? Just over of 200 years ago, the year after Tambora erupted. About 71,000 dead. Yet the same scientists who say it's all mans fault are the same ones who say that volcanoes have no effect.

I call bullshit.

Yes, I just finished a 12 hour day at work, and I'm enjoying a nice adult beverage. My political correctness is broken. I'm not saying climate change per se isn't happening, I'm simply saying that these jackasses are pushing a political agenda that's not based upon good science.

Mother Earth has been here a LONG time. There's a reason I can go find seashells not that far from where I live - and I'm in Oklahoma. Stuff has been happening for a LOT longer than our 200 years or less of accurately recorded history and weather, and the people that are so arrogant as to say that things are going to drastically change with the oceans rising are the same dipsticks that can't tell you with 100% assurance that it's not going to rain tomorrow (unless you're on Antarctica, where it doesn't rain except rarely along the coasts).

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

The climate is going to change, one way or the other.

That's why warmists performed their rebranding exercise, so they could counter sceptics with the truism that 'climate change is inevitable'. Yet now they're mobilising the gullible to 'stop climate change'.

IMO anyone who uses the term 'climate change' when they mean 'global warming' is either a fraudster or a victim of one.

AJ

Replies:   Tw0Cr0ws  Dominions Son
Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Shortly before the switch from calling it global warming to climate change I started calling it gullible warming.

Replies:   joyR  awnlee jawking
joyR 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

So basically we've gone from gullible warming to climate charge.

Because to 'save the environment there must be increased or new taxes of surcharges to 'encourage' people.

So far nobody advocating this has actually explained how the extra money raised will be used to save us all... Funny that.

Replies:   Tw0Cr0ws
Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@joyR

Because to 'save the environment there must be increased or new taxes of surcharges to 'encourage' people.

So far nobody advocating this has actually explained how the extra money raised will be used to save us all... Funny that.

The key thing the people behind this want is not money, it is power. And after they get the power they must change things so they are never out of power, it's for the good of the world after all...

You will live a life with reduced circumstances, they will still jet about the world because they are the elites. The peasants do not get a dacha by the lake, the leaders do.

awnlee jawking 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

Shortly before the switch from calling it global warming to climate change I started calling it gullible warming.

I'm not unreceptive to the idea that the planet seems to be getting warmer recently, and as someone who doesn't cope well with high temperatures, it's a concern.

However, 'climate change' could be a good thing. If only we could reforest the Sahara to turn the region back into a tropical rainforest. It would help to offset the Brazilians' determination to ignore the lessons of history and create an Amazon Desert :(

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@awnlee jawking

However, 'climate change' could be a good thing. If only we could reforest the Sahara to turn the region back into a tropical rainforest. It would help to offset the Brazilians' determination to ignore the lessons of history and create an Amazon Desert :(

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-china-trade/china-eyes-long-term-food-processing-deals-in-brazil-chinese-official-idUSKCN1QG2M3

China figures heavily into Brazils actions. For that matter, the same can be said for Peru, Columbia, Venezuela, and others. You can't swing a dead cat in South America without risk of hitting a China man these days.

Food and oil are China's Achilles heels. They cannot grow enough food, fish enough, nor drill enough for oil to support their population.

Spend some time in Beijing smog and you'll see how much they care about the environment. Burning off several thousand hectares of rain forest to make way for food production doesn't even raise an eyebrow for them.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

Spend some time in Beijing smog and you'll see how much they care about the environment.

And they're flooding valleys for hydro-electric power, destroying the only known location for several plant species. And given the poor quality of their biological surveys, almost certainly wiping out plenty of undiscovered species too.

Burning off several thousand hectares of rain forest to make way for food production doesn't even raise an eyebrow for them.

When the land turns into a giant dustbowl (it's already started), they might realise that destroying the rainforest caused it.

The UK is technically a temperate rainforest. But, having reduced the tree cover to something like 10% of what it used to be, some parts of the country now get as much rainfall as deserts.

AJ

Dominions Son 🚫

@awnlee jawking

That's why warmists performed their rebranding exercise

No actually the inevitability (climate always changes) argument was not the driver of of the rebranding.

The driver way people pointing to cold spells and extreme cold weather events as disproof of "global warming".

Remus2 🚫

@LupusDei

Written history, much less written scientific history, doesn't go back far enough to form any conclusive or even a viable hypothesis to predict climate change reliably. The closest thing we have are archeological and geological records found in the earth.

Those two disciplines share a common thread. Radiometric dating. To a degree geological findings can be roughly dated via counting layers of strata, but not near enough to count as conclusive data. Radiometric dating is therefore required.

Fossilized trees/plants, and animals that absorbed the environment around them created a record of sorts of that environment in that specific time. Trees in particular are useful for that, the older the better. One ring equals one growing season, which is usually one year. C-14, Be-10, and other isotopes can be measured for decay to pin down the year that particular ring absorbed them. Coupled with known required energy (read sunlight), nutrient, temperature, and other required values to produce that specific ring, a lot can be determined about the climate in which it was produced.

Then there are the isotopes captured in various layers of ice. Those layers of ice can be read much like the rings of trees.

To a degree, climatologists rely on that data when it supports their claims, and dismiss them when they do not. It is after all, very inconvenient to have mother earth's record call them a liar.

So where do those isotopes come from? Carbon 14 is created by cosmic spallation in the atmosphere of Nitrogen 14. It then settles over time on the surface as it is very slightly heavier than air. Beryllium 10, another good marker is created via oxygen and nitrogen spallation.

By now you should be seeing a trend.

Global warming is predicated on the greenhouse effect. Light energy getting in, but the excess being prevented from reflecting/radiating back into space. It assumes a constant input, and a constant albedo value for the earth. Problem is, neither are in fact constant.

I've watched the total solar irradiance (TSI) drop over the last two decades, enough so that it totally screwed the climate models. So what do they do with that? They throw out the previous data as unreliable and insert a new set that fits their narrative.
http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/tsi-data/#historical_TSI

These estimated solar irradiances for the last 400 years are based on the NRLTSI2 historical TSI reconstruction model by J. Lean and described by Coddington et al. The values of the NRLTSI2 model have been offset a small amount for agreement with recent SORCE/TIM values and replaced by SORCE/TIM annual averages from 2003 onward. The historical reconstruction provided here was computed using TIM V.17 data in January 2017. It is updated annually as new TIM data are available or as improved historical reconstructions are created.

Changes to TSI reconstructions may be expected for two reasons:

1) The 2013 IPCC AR5 report used input solar forcing from the CMIP5, which is largely based on a prior version of the NRLTSI model. The IPCC AR6 CMIP6, however, uses both the empirical NRLTSI2 proxy-model and the semi-empirical SATIRE model. The reconstruction shown here is based only on the NRLTSI2 model. Of the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models, the NRLTSI2 reconstruction best matches the SORCE/TIM measurements as neither show the secular downward trend in TSI over the last three solar cycles that the SATIRE model (and thus the CMIP6) does.

Anyone who questioned that was effectively shunned. Good luck getting a grant or job if you question the dogma/party line.

All of that is before we get to the cosmic aspects of the problem. The sun isn't the only source of energy input to influence the earth. That part of it is completely ignored.

I could travel for miles and miles down this rabbit hole, suffice to say, changes are happening, but only the most arrogant and or greedy purport to know exactly how and why.

Dominions Son 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Were they basing their predictions on science or the Gambler's Fallacy, the idea that an ice age was overdue?

Even counting recent decades, the 1930s were the hottest or second hottes decade for the continental US. Aside from just temperature station records, US Navy records show that the North West passage (Arctic ocean over the north coast of North America). had less sea ice in the 1930s than even recent decades.

And temperatures declined a bit between the 1930s and the 1960s. Mid 1970s is when the cooling stopped.

Not_a_ID 🚫

@Remus2

Every time a heat wave happens, it's global warming. Every time a cold spell happens, it's climate change. All of which set off more direful predictions. Predictions that have yet to happen. I believe the latest one is the world's going to end in twelve years.

It isn't even "the latest one" as then Senator Al "Inconvenient Truth" Gore gave a speech on the Senate Floor circa 1989 IIRC, talking about how we were just 12 years away from the Earth becoming uninhabitable if actions weren't taken to curb global warming.

We never made it anywhere close to his asked for targets, didn't really make aggressive actions until the 00's for that matter. And yet, here we are, roughly 30 years later...

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Not_a_ID

It isn't even "the latest one" as then Senator Al "Inconvenient Truth" Gore gave a speech on the Senate Floor circa 1989 IIRC, talking about how we were just 12 years away from the Earth becoming uninhabitable if actions weren't taken to curb global warming.

In specifics, you're off a bit, but in general, that's about right.

ETA: After refreshing my memory;

Report (SAR) (1995) from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) set the stage for the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The IPCC was itself created in 1988.

It was 83-85 when Gore started his crap. The 12 year predictions were a bit later on when he was extolling the 'virtues and need for the IPCC. He doubled downed and slide the timeline back after he became the VP. Changed yet again in the run up to Kyoto. IIRC, the planet has had 12 years to live for ~36 years in three discrete sets of predictions I'm aware of.

12 years seems to be a magic number for them. A similar prediction was made in the early 70's except it was extolling global cooling. Apparently, the earth has been 12 years away from death for 48 years. That would make it four sets if I remember that part correct.

I can't say for sure, but I'd lay even odds there is a study out there that states ~12 years is long enough to fog most people's memories.

Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

12 years seems to be a magic number for them.

It's short enough to generate a sense of urgency if you buy their bullshit, and long enough that the majority of the general public will have forgotten by the time the deadline runs out. :)

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Dominions Son

It's short enough to generate a sense of urgency if you buy their bullshit, and long enough that the majority of the general public will have forgotten by the time the deadline runs out. :)

Sounds plausible to me.

awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

12 years seems to be a magic number for them.

It's a political technique, a form of marketing - "X amount of time to do/save Y". I could list plenty of similar claims from UK politics, but that would be discussing politics rather than science and that's deprecated in the forum.

AJ

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Ugh, I had to convert those to English. We've had a couple of hot spells too this August. It's being blamed on Global Warming, but it seems to me that they were caused by unusual air flows carrying hot air (and sand) from Africa.

Sorry, I thought you were posting from the UK, not a civilized country. :)

I suspect that if it was above 80 for two entire months, mostly above 90 during those months, and a few days above 100, there would have been less warfare in Europe, especially during the middle ages.

Could you imagine the guys in full plate or other armor, trying to move around? Go attack those folks over there! Fuck that, let's just have a beer and sit in the shade. It's too damned hot! :)

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

I vaguely remember a study which purported to show that men, in particular, became more aggressive with heat. It certainly shows in the standard of driving on UK roads, with boy racers emerging en masse in hot weather.

Also, in hot climes, there's more of a tendency to take by conquest rather than growing one's own. If the Middle East were temperate and its population was (were?) subsistence farmers, the net world conflict would be much reduced IMO.

AJ

Replies:   Remus2  StarFleet Carl
Remus2 🚫

@awnlee jawking

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/out-the-ooze/201905/hot-and-bothered-does-heat-make-people-aggressive

I've read similar studies. The results are mixed. However, empirical observation from long hours on hot job sites tells me it's true regardless of the studies.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Also, in hot climes, there's more of a tendency to take by conquest rather than growing one's own. If the Middle East were temperate and its population was (were?) subsistence farmers, the net world conflict would be much reduced IMO.

Also, if the Middle East was made VERY hot for a short period, I suspect in the long run we'd have a similar result. (Now, where the radioactive fallout goes AFTER the bombs went off, that might cause other problems, but that's a different issue.)

But in all seriousness, all someone has to do is go to a simple construction site and see what happens with workers when it's really hot versus just moderately warm versus normal or chilly temperatures. Heat puts more stress on our bodies and we tend to get pissed off easier.

LupusDei 🚫
Updated:

Now back to the topic: my favorite geoengineering project (I strangely haven't seen discussed, perhaps because it is insane idea), to fill up Taklamakan desert with water, mile or more deep. If I remember right the cursory calculation I once did, that huge bowl could hold enough water to lover world ocean by up to five feet or so. Chinese may not be able to attempt it now (nor very interested, likely), but let's say they successfully stiff Siberia from Russians.

Now, what happens when under that mass the continental sheet shifts.

Replies:   Tw0Cr0ws
Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@LupusDei

I once sent Putin an email suggesting he might look at joining NATO, the increasingly expansionist PRC may yet turn its attention toward the 'Northern Resource Area'.

Remus2 🚫

A brief review of world weather events makes clear something is happening. What I personally take issue with is the way a 'concensus of cause' is being jammed down our throats.

To take one excuse/reason over all others without counter analysis is foolhardy at best, dangerous at worse. Systematically silencing opposing opinions and or data, is to deliberately blind the world to a potential real threat. No good can come of shouting down opposing views in the manner it's being done.

Replies:   joyR
joyR 🚫

@Remus2

Systematically silencing opposing opinions and or data, is to deliberately blind the world to a potential real threat. No good can come of shouting down opposing views in the manner it's being done.

Reminds one of "The Emperors New Clothes"

Except they can't decide to insist he is wearing Board Shorts and Flip-Flops, or Thermal Undies and a SnowSuit...

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@joyR

Except they can't decide to insist he is wearing Board Shorts and Flip-Flops, or Thermal Undies and a SnowSuit...

That's as clear a way of stating it as any.

richardshagrin 🚫

When civilization collapses you get a trophy in the shape of the rear half of a cat. Yes, a cat ass trophy.

Replies:   joyR
joyR 🚫

@richardshagrin

When civilization collapses you get a trophy in the shape of the rear half of a cat. Yes, a cat ass trophy.

If the collapse starts close to the equator, would it be termed 'cat ass tropic' ??

Replies:   Radagast
Radagast 🚫

@joyR

I groaned and face palmed. Well done.

Remus2 🚫
Updated:

PG&E is apparently cutting off 800k people. No need for an apocalypse to lose power.

Replies:   Keet
Keet 🚫

@Remus2

PG&E is apparently cutting off 800k people. No need for an apocalypse to lose power.

The weird thing is that it is primarily a precaution to avoid starting wildfires. I would think that thousands of customers starting up emergency generators would make the risk much bigger. But hey, no one can point a finger to PG&E so there's that.

Replies:   graybyrd  Remus2
graybyrd 🚫
Updated:

@Keet

But hey, no one can point a finger to PG&E so there's that.

We've heard nothing about the power cut up here in the PNW, but the BBC covered it.

1) an investigation revealed PG&E poorly maintained power lines caused the Camp Fire, which killed 86 people and destroyed the town of Paradise.

2)PG&E was also blamed for fires in 2017. Subsequent lawsuits totalled $1 billion. PG&E declared bankruptcy this year. The court fights continue.

The state's governor noted, PG&E finally woke up to their responsibility to keep people safe, and a consumer noted PG&E should have invested profits in maintaining their lines, rather than paying fat dividends to investors.

(Meanwhile, we have a truck camper ready, a generator, and 200 watts of solar panels for the camper battery.)

This would make a great "apocalypse" story if it weren't so stupidly... word?

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@graybyrd

This would make a great "apocalypse" story if it weren't so stupidly... word?

Asinine works there, and yes it would make a good story. PG&E rolled the probability dice and the people of that town died when they lost.

Remus2 🚫

@Keet

I would think that thousands of customers starting up emergency generators would make the risk much bigger.

I'll be damned surprised if a few of those customers don't end up dead anyway. I'd wag high odds at least one of them tries to run a little generator in their house, or burns it down trying to use candles for light.

Replies:   Radagast
Radagast 🚫

@Remus2

DTP author Peter Grant blogs as Bayou Renaissance Man.
He wrote of taking in refugees from Hurricane Katrina.

IIRC one couple turned up in their travel trailer with no food, no water, no fuel & no cash. They had their debit cards (no electricity = no ATM /POS) and a complete set of gourmet cookware (fresh food deliveries delayed for weeks if not months).

Common sense is not common.

Replies:   graybyrd
graybyrd 🚫

@Radagast

Common sense is not common.

First of all, "common sense" is regarded as the most democratic of all the attributes. Everyone thinks they have sufficient.

But back to the point: lacking experience in like circumstances, it's difficult for folks to have "common sense" about what to do. For instance, I've lived many years in rural settings, away from services, subject to storms and outages, and thus have learned what needs be done to be prepared for likely exigencies. "Common sense?" Not really. Experience and applied learning. Expecting life-long urban folk, apartment dwellers, to possess "common sense" in the face of upheaval and dislocation is asking a bit much. Especially if urban hubby can't handle an axe and chop wood (dry, not green wood;) and the wife can't pluck and gut pigeons for stew.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@graybyrd

Expecting life-long urban folk, apartment dwellers, to possess "common sense" in the face of upheaval and dislocation is asking a bit much. Especially if urban hubby can't handle an axe and chop wood (dry, not green wood;) and the wife can't pluck and gut pigeons for stew.

I've been thinking on that one for a while now. My first reaction was to dismiss it, common sense, is common sense.

However, it's not something I've considered before. That being the root of common sense, and what exactly it is.

My childhood was rural/reservation based. It's hard for me to place myself in the shoes of someone who grew up in a city. After a bit of reflection, I've realized there is some truth to what you've stated.

That said, I have been in a great many places since that childhood. Cities, rural, outright wilderness, Siberia, Antarctica, deep sea platforms, etc. In those places, I've met multiple walks of life.

While I've come to believe you're correct for the majority on the face of it, I don't see being from a city as automatic exclusivity from common sense. I've met many from such places who displayed the ability to think on their feet, and adapt rapidly to conditions.

If there is a connecting thread, it's the individuals ability to apply critical thinking skills, and a mind that adapts rather than folds. I don't believe either city folks, nor rural folks, have a patent on common sense as defined like that.

ETA; Typo fix

Replies:   graybyrd
graybyrd 🚫

@Remus2

If there is a connecting thread, it's the individuals ability to apply critical thinking skills, and a mind that adapts rather than folds. I don't believe either city folks, nor rural folks, have a patent on common sense as defined like that.

You're perfectly correct. A person's mindset, habits, intelligence, squicks, quirks, biases, prejudices, etc. all have an impact on what we might flippantly regard as "common sense." One of the more predominant factors is experience, involving rearing, environment, education, and life encounters. But personal adaptability and thinking on one's feet, as you said, are major factors.

Ex: an urban refugee couple should form an alliance with a rural refugee couple, offering to share knowledge, resources, and assistance to benefit from the rural couple's knowledge. Just good ol' "common sense" to do so.

Radagast 🚫

PG&E went broke back in 2000 after Enron manipulated the electricity supply to be able to increase the spot price. PG&E had to sell at a legislated lower price than the spot price. The reduced supply, caused by taking plants off line, caused rolling black outs and an estimated 40 billion in lost production for the state economy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisis

So the evil big businessman angle is already covered for someone wanting to write a factional story with names changed to protect the guilty.
Back to the situation today. Its been almost two decades, I wonder if the lack of maintenance / infrastructure replacement dates back to that bankruptcy.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫
Updated:

@Radagast

PG&E went broke back in 2000 after Enron manipulated the electricity supply to be able to increase the spot price.

Your cite misses one major factor and gets another seriously wrong.

The article notes that California capped retail prices and forced the utilities to sell nearly all there generating capacity to unregulated companies.

However, it misses the fact that California also prohibited the regulated utilities from using long term contracts to stabilize the prices they were paying. They had to buy all their power on the spot market.

As to what it gets wrong, At the time it was NOT FERC's responsibility to regulate wholesale transmission prices (that was added to their authority in 2005).

They did have regulations to prevent companies that had both regulated utilities and were buying and selling on the transmission market from "self dealing". However, Enron never operated a regulated utility, so they weren't covered by those regulations, and their sales to the California market wouldn't have been covered anyway.

FERCs primary responsibility in terms of the electric grid is maintaining the reliability of the interstate transmission grid.

But of course it was all Enron's fault, not an inevitable result of stupidity on the part of California's utility regulations.

Replies:   Radagast  Remus2
Radagast 🚫

@Dominions Son

Thanks for the extra info.

Remus2 🚫

@Dominions Son

https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article235501067.html

It would appear that many people have forgotten the multitude of environmental lawsuits against PG&E and the BLM from earlier 2K time frames. Much of the overgrowth that caught fire on Fed lands came out of injunctions from those lawsuits.

https://www.abc10.com/mobile/article/news/investigations/the-history-of-pges-problems/103-b7badd6e-8eea-4ae3-a935-8628ba98b87e

Then there is the above link. Conveniently not mentioned were those lawsuits. PG&E cannot win. Poor management, lawsuits, injunctions, government interference, ad nauseam, they are screwed.

All that means little to the deli that has to toss out its stock for lack of refrigeration, or the old couple that has to leave their home seeking shelter, or the family that dies from carbon monoxide poisoning/asphyxiation or being cooked in a fire.

There is no path apparent to me for going forward within the bounds of the various regulations and laws affecting the situation. The engineer in me says it can be fixed, but that fix will come at a cost. Changes in laws, charges, and methods specifically.

richardshagrin 🚫

tropic

"Tropic | Definition of Tropic at Dictionary.com
www.dictionary.com/
either of two corresponding parallels of latitude on the terrestrial globe, one (tropic of Cancer) about 23Β½Β° N, and the other (tropic of Capricorn) about 23Β½Β° S of the equator, being the boundaries of the Torrid Zone. the tropics, the regions lying between and near these parallels of latitude; the Torrid Zone and neighboring regions."

That makes "cat ass tropic" a torrid pun. Perhaps you need to pronounce the "T" in torrid like the letter "H".

Mushroom 🚫

@Grant

Something that would have a similar effect to an EMP, would be the collapse of the GPS network.

Without the GPS network, present communication networks would lose from 60% to 90% of their functionality as they rely on it for their timing reference.

Actually, most of that is amazingly replaceable.

We still maintain and operate "hard line" connections between the major continents. And in addition Microwave and atmospheric bounce communications would continue to function.

And before GPS became the standard for world time, it was atomic clocks on the ground that are still in place and operational. Even today, those are the places your computer taps into to update your time and date when you go online.

And aircraft and ships still use things like radio direction finding and location, as well as inertial navigation. Even our most advanced military weapons and systems use inertial navigation as their primary means, radio as a secondary, and GPS more as a double check than the actual navigation itself.

Even today, when we finalize the placement of a PATRIOT missile battery (where each piece has a GPS unit on it), we do the initial layout manually with compass and paper, then strap an inertial navigation system on the hood and drive to each location, and only as the final step use the GPS to confirm the first 2 are correct.

And amazingly, those other 2 older systems are generally accurate to the GPS to within 10 meters or so. GPS is no better really than the older systems, it is simply faster.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@Mushroom

And aircraft and ships still use things like radio direction finding and location, as well as inertial navigation. Even our most advanced military weapons and systems use inertial navigation as their primary means, radio as a secondary, and GPS more as a double check than the actual navigation itself.

LORAN was shut down back in the 1990's. Radio direction finding for ships is almost unheard of these days.

blackjack2145309 🚫

Yea honestly for any good apocalypse story needs to start out with a profoundly earth shattering event that causes a full on break down of government and forces people to rely on themselves.

Replies:   Keet
Keet 🚫

@blackjack2145309

Yea honestly for any good apocalypse story needs to start out with a profoundly earth shattering event that causes a full on break down of government and forces people to rely on themselves.

I assume your comment is supposed to be sarcastic but nevertheless a good point seeing as how the current world is slowly but steadily moving to an apocalyptic stage. It will still take a long time, but if we don't change our ways the end will definitely be post apocalyptic.

Replies:   blackjack2145309
blackjack2145309 🚫

@Keet

My previous statement was meant to be an opinion based on my limited writing experience. I do admit thinking about it now i might be wrong about an apocalypse requiring a breakdown of government. What it probably will require is a significant population reduction and after that anything bad that happens is icing on the cake. I don't think loss of technology will be a direct cause of the apocalypse but how much is left will effect how quickly humanity bounces back. To be honest i'm worried if we're in the middle of an apocalypse scenario already with covid-19 because the smart people are going out of their way to say "we don't know if this vaccine will give you immunity." or something like that. What that means to me is either they're hyping the fear of covid-19 or they're telling the truth and its better to wait a while to get any vaccines

Replies:   Keet  Mushroom  Pixy
Keet 🚫

@blackjack2145309

What that means to me is either they're hyping the fear of covid-19 or they're telling the truth and its better to wait a while to get any vaccines

I have the same thoughts. Luckily it's relatively easy for me to stay in voluntary quarantine so I will until a vaccine is proven to be working and otherwise harmless. I also believe that the current fear for Covid-19 is shamelessly abused by governments to push through laws that will drastically limit the already diminishing freedoms we have left.

Mushroom 🚫

@blackjack2145309

What it probably will require is a significant population reduction and after that anything bad that happens is icing on the cake. I don't think loss of technology will be a direct cause of the apocalypse but how much is left will effect how quickly humanity bounces back.

That is the most common reason historically.

Generally war, plague, natural disaster, or a combination of them is what causes a culture or region to enter a "dark age". And as a culture breaks down, if the population drops low enough then large projects and capabilities are lost as people turn to simply trying to survive.

It takes enough people for a culture to have specialists to keep such skills intact. Egyptian hieroglyphs were used for over 3,500 years, but once the high level of culture needed to sustain the priest and scribe classes collapsed the ability to read them was lost for over 1,400 years until they were finally deciphered again.

This is where games like Fallout blow it. Sure, black powder weapons could still exist and be made. But cartridge weapons? Nope, far to much precursor technology had been lost. And they could no more fix a computer than Doc Brown could fix his car in the 1880's west.

In fact, with the inherent latency of vacuum tubes compared to ICs or discrete logic circuits, I am surprised even Doc Brown was able to fix it with 1950's technology.

To get an idea, look up the MOnSter 6502. A home brew project trying to recreate the MOS 6502 processor (Apple II, PET, Amiga 400/800, NES) using discrete logic transistors. An over 40 year old CPU today, still state of the art in 1985. And it uses (for the time) a staggering 4,237 transistors.

If a CPU had burned one out in the lightning strike, Doc had better hope he used a MOS 6502, with only 4,237 transistors. If it has been the Z80, that had over 8,500 transistors. And at a cost then of around $1 each, that is a lot of money.

To put it in perspective, the most popular car of the time was the Chevy Bel Aire (just over $2,000). Just the cost of transistors alone could buy 2-4 brand new cars.

Dominions Son 🚫

@Mushroom

In fact, with the inherent latency of vacuum tubes compared to ICs or discrete logic circuits, I am surprised even Doc Brown was able to fix it with 1950's technology.

In the first movie in the 1950s, it wasn't really broken. The power supply was exhausted. All he had to do was figure out how to get enough energy into it fast enough.

If a CPU had burned one out in the lightning strike

With the energy requirements of the important "circuits" under normal operation, the odds of a lightning strike burning them out was minimal.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@Dominions Son

In the first movie in the 1950s, it wasn't really broken. The power supply was exhausted. All he had to do was figure out how to get enough energy into it fast enough.

At the end of Part II, it was hit by lightning again, frying out the circuits and sending Doc to 1885. He hid it in a cave and sent a note to Marty so he and his past self could recover it and rebuild the "time circuits".

Then at the start of Part III, Doc is obviously looking at an integrated circuit, he then comments it failed because it was "made in Japan". That is what he has to replace with discrete logic components, what appears to be a CPU chip.

I have been a computer tech for decades, and seen a great many fried by lightning. Especially in Alabama, a common problem there. I have even seen a high quality surge suppressor burned out as well as the entire computer when it was turned off. There is a vast difference between main power and lightning. I have even seen entire systems fried back in the day when the surge came over the phone line, jumping from internal MODEM to fry almost everything else on a computer that is powered off.

There is a huge difference between 110-220 volts, and a billion volts.

Dominions Son 🚫

@Mushroom

There is a huge difference between 110-220 volts, and a billion volts.

There is a huge difference between hitting a 110 or 220 volt circuit with a billion volts and a circuit that NEEDS a billion volts to work.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@Dominions Son

There is a huge difference between hitting a 110 or 220 volt circuit with a billion volts and a circuit that NEEDS a billion volts to work.

No circuit needs that much current. None ever made.

Not even a full sized nuclear power plant produces anywhere near that much power. Mr. Fusion is a fictional plot device, like Unobtanium.

In fact, the highest sustained current ever produced was 25MV. The only advantage of a "Mr. Fusion" would have been (in theory to go with the fictional setting) to propel the Flux Capacitor that makes time travel possible. Not in the circuits that actually power the computer that targets it (which would have been most likely 12 and 5 volt circuits). Think of a car, which needs a 200 amp starter and a 2,000 amp hour battery to start, but is entirely 12 volts.

A higher voltage to force the car "through a time wormhole" I can see, but the rest would be the usual 12 volt stuff. And that is what failed.

I can relate to this, because for years I worked on the PATRIOT missile system. In normal operation, the generator on the launcher was barely at an idle. And that was more than enough to power the system while it was just "sitting there". But in the seconds before launch, the 15kw generator would scream up to overload, pushing over 25kw in the seconds before launch. Then when finished it would return to idle again. It needed more power than the generator was rated to produce to actually launch a missile, but it could handle it for a short burst.

I see "Mr. Fusion" as that. It was only needed to fold space, not to operate the car or computer.

And yea, I am a major tech geek.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Mushroom

A higher voltage to force the car "through a time wormhole" I can see, but the rest would be the usual 12 volt stuff. And that is what failed.

True. However in the first movie, they had something other than the car itself to take the direct lightning strike and rigged something to direct all that power into the one circuit that needed it, so minimal risk of burning anything out.

At the end of Part II, the car itself was hit and all that voltage/power went places it wasn't wanted.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@Dominions Son

True. However in the first movie, they had something other than the car itself to take the direct lightning strike and rigged something to direct all that power into the one circuit that needed it, so minimal risk of burning anything out.

At the end of Part II, the car itself was hit and all that voltage/power went places it wasn't wanted.

Once again, simple answer.

In Part I, they used a lightning rod to force the strike into the flux capacitor.

In Part II, the door was open and the car itself was struck. Likely Doc had set it up as a Faraday Cage, and this integrity was broken with the door being open. So lightning struck internal components and fried them (causing the almost random jump to a previous entered destination).

About a decade ago I took part in such a discussion where we tried to justify the tech in real world terms that might actually work. And we used a lot of analogies to real world things. But Doc already told us the actual time travel part was separate from the car itself. And the stainless steel makes little sense as a body, unless it was also required as part of a Faraday cage setup.

For those that do not know, a Faraday Cage is a concept over 170 years old. In short, you put metal or a mesh between an object and an electrical source, and it prevents it from being affected. We use it in almost everything in the military ("EMP Hardening" as well as counter-espionage), and that is why you can watch food cook in your microwave and not be cooked yourself. Just put your cell phone in a microwave, or play music on a radio and put it in a sealed galvanized garbage can and you see it in action.

I guess one advantage of being a "Trivia garbage dump" is that I retain all kinds of things like this. Plus being an analyst I tend to look at things in a very logical manner.

Which interestingly, actually leads to another great post-Apocalyptic novel-movie. The Postman.

A decent movie, the book was way different. And included Faraday Cages, super-computers, and augmented humans. Not a neo-Skinhead group led by a copy machine repairman.

richardshagrin 🚫
Updated:

@Mushroom

integrated circuit

In Alabama they were probably segregated circuits particularly in 1885.

What are Faradays and why do you want to keep them in cages?

Replies:   Dominions Son  Mushroom
Dominions Son 🚫

@richardshagrin

If I start a traveling performance show with performers of all races, would that be an integrated circus?

Replies:   richardshagrin
richardshagrin 🚫

@Dominions Son

would that be an integrated circus?

Probably need horses and elephants to have a circus. Lions and/or Tigers also help. Sometimes midgets or really tall performers. One of the early circus type museums (by Barnum) had a sign, "This way to the Egress".

Mushroom 🚫

@richardshagrin

In Alabama they were probably segregated circuits particularly in 1885.

Which I guess is better than Mississippi, which would have an incestual circuit

Replies:   StarFleet Carl  joyR
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Mushroom

Mississippi, which would have an incestual circuit

That's Kentucky ... they're a slippery, but lubricated state, full of KY ...

joyR 🚫

@Mushroom

Which I guess is better than Mississippi, which would have an incestual circuit

It's all about quality control.

After all, if he or she isn't good enough for his/her own family, they're not good enough for you.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Mushroom

This is where games like Fallout blow it. Sure, black powder weapons could still exist and be made. But cartridge weapons? Nope, far to much precursor technology had been lost. And they could no more fix a computer than Doc Brown could fix his car in the 1880's west.

Just curious - have you ever played 'Fallout'?

The reason why I ask is because of my novel on here, "Love Never Changes", which is based in the Fallout universe. There's still lots of technology around - it's only a couple of hundred years after the bombs fall. Stuff is still around - including workstations.

Hey, it's an alternate earth, where the timeline diverged from ours many decades ago. Go read it, and you'll understand why, even though we had an apocalyptic event, we're still going, just not as strong as we were. Yes, it's a blatant plug, but Fallout specifically DOESN'T blow it, which is why you're in error about that.

https://storiesonline.net/s/20648/love-never-changes

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

The reason why I ask is because of my novel on here, "Love Never Changes", which is based in the Fallout universe. There's still lots of technology around - it's only a couple of hundred years after the bombs fall. Stuff is still around - including workstations.

Yes I have, and I have also read your story.

However, remember that Fallout also had one huge difference. No transistors. They were discovered very late, therefore that is why you still find vacuum tubes everywhere. And one great thing about tubes, they are incredibly resistant to damage and can survive almost anything.

That is why there was once a thriving industry in "TV Repair". They were expensive, but normally not very much to fix. You could even pull your tubes out yourself and take them to a store and have them tested and replaced. Today, nobody fixes electronics anymore, they just throw them away.

And in a game, I allow myself a lot more "suspension of belief" than in a novel. "Game logic" is often fun to consider, like how you can run around with huge amounts of inventory. Even one game decades ago poked fun at that, having the character fill a 32 gallon soda. Then he simply slip it in his pocket.

And by the way, I have played Fallout. I even played it before it was Fallout when we knew it as Wasteland. And an important skill was "Toaster Repair". I have spent far more time than I should have playing that series. But I have resisted the idea of such a story, as I know I would have to make it very dark. More like Threads or A Boy and his Dog than Fallout.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Mushroom

A Boy and his Dog

At least she had good taste ... :)

I consider A Boy and His Dog more like the Mojave Wasteland, though. Keep in mind for Fallout Four, the Boston area just plain got lucky because the Yangtze never launched all of her missiles. Otherwise, things would be much more like the Glowing Sea.

Amusingly enough, I used to work at an old fashioned Mom and Pop electronic store. We had an entire 40' peg board wall full of resistors, capacitors, diodes, and such. We also HAD people bring in circuit boards from TV's, looking for specific chips, so they could fix them. You'd have people pitch a TV because they'd broken the cable connection on the back, or the HDMI connector, and other people would pick them up out of the trash, come see us and buy a $10 HDMI connector or $1 for a new coax connector.

We also had sources for old tubes, because of the hobbyists that still use them. We'd sometimes have to order tubes in from Russia, because that was the only place that still had them, to sell to people. I remember one guy needed a tube for something, and there were only five of them left in the entire world. We got his deposit, and got all five of them in for him, at more than $400 each.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

Amusingly enough, I used to work at an old fashioned Mom and Pop electronic store. We had an entire 40' peg board wall full of resistors, capacitors, diodes, and such. We also HAD people bring in circuit boards from TV's, looking for specific chips, so they could fix them. You'd have people pitch a TV because they'd broken the cable connection on the back, or the HDMI connector, and other people would pick them up out of the trash, come see us and buy a $10 HDMI connector or $1 for a new coax connector.

I used to do a lot of things like this. In fact, I made my first multimeter from a kit so I could fix some wiring issues with my motorcycle.

But with the death of Radio Shack, it is increasingly hard to even get parts short of going online. And with the cost of modern electronics, it frequently is just not worth the effort. About 2 years ago I threw away a 52" 1080p plasma because the power supply inside it blew. For less than the cost of a new power supply I bought a new 55" 4K.

I even have a dual processor 2U rackmount server that has been sitting in storage for about 6 years. Some capacitors in it failed, and I know I could get it running again. It would only take around $20 in parts and an hour or so, but why? I also have a 5U rackmount that is a bit newer and works just fine, so that one will probably sit until I get tired of it and just throw it away.

There was a time I did a lot of things like that myself (I remember soldering a new capacitor on a keyboard in 1991 - back then a new keyboard was almost $100). And when a new VCR was over 2 week salary it made sense. But in an era when a single day of work can get most people a nice smart TV, it is just no longer worth my time. My last tube TV went in the trash almost a decade ago, and short of maybe trying to do a repair for a MeTube video, I simply do not see the point anymore.

And it's likely that most do not even have my limited electronics ability. My son a while back went through my "Computer Toolbox", and thought my soldering iron was some kind of electric pencil for engraving.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Mushroom

thought my soldering iron was some kind of electric pencil for engraving.

Remember wood burning kits? Basically soldering irons so you could sit and scorch wood. Then when you drop it by accident because someone caught the cord, you grab for it and spend the next several weeks recovering from the burns.

Pixy 🚫

@blackjack2145309

To be honest i'm worried if we're in the middle of an apocalypse scenario already with covid-19

As more and more data comes in, and is being analysed, it's already changing earlier assumptions. For instance, in the UK we now know that the disease was in the country months earlier than initially thought. The percentage of asymptomatic carriers was greatly under-estimated, and that certain demographics of the population is being hit harder than the rest.

Politicians are, typically, jumping on any positive aspect and interpreting results to fit their selective bias, ie "X was the result of policies I implemented.", where in reality, X was the result of mere happenstance rather than conscious design.

I think in a few years time, general scientific analysis and consensus will rule most attempts at stopping C19 to have been ineffectual, and only placebic in actuality (ie calls to keep distance, mask wearing etc etc). The General Public simply doesn't have the mindset, training and self discipline to make those avenues of contagion reduction effective.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Pixy

Politicians are, typically, jumping on any positive aspect and interpreting results to fit their selective bias, ie "X was the result of policies I implemented."

I read a quote earlier this week attributed to 'scientists' saying that introducing the lockdown when we did saved 371,000 lives.

The General Public simply doesn't have the mindset, training and self discipline to make those avenues of contagion reduction effective.

The contempt for basic safety during the recent demonstrations tends to support that, but where I live the rules have generally been followed pretty well in spirit, although with common sense used to bend them when appropriate.

AJ

Pixy 🚫

Reading through this thread, I find it ironic that no-one mentioned the glaringly obvious solution to the whole thread, one that we are just skirting the possibilities of right now.

Or maybe the OP was after a cause that wasn't one of the usual culprits, viral (electronic or biological) or nuclear.

To be honest, humans are too resilient as a species for anything other than a major world wide calamity to have any lasting impact. In fact, history has shown that the human race actually thrives after a good culling, whether it be world war or a world wide calamity. Tragedy seems to focus human endeavor in ways no financial incentive could ever achieve.

For a civilisation to collapse, it needs the accompaniment of a powerful outside influence. The best clues are our own history. look at what brought down the Empires of previous generations. The trigger for most of those collapses is mostly hubris, accompanied by the well timed intervention of an outside force.

Even today we still chant the ineffectual slogan of 'Too big to fail', and yet, time and time again that has been proven to be a woefully untrue state of affairs. It doesn't matter if it's companies, banks or even countries. Against all learned opinion, they have indeed, failed, regardless of size and the alleged accompanying collapse has never materialised. Yes, it has meant hardship for some, but for the majority? Business as usual. And for the more astute, a time of great wealth and prosperity. Someone will always gain from misery.

The next Empire to collapse? All eyes are on Europe and the financial problems of Spain and Italy, but my money is on China. The current leaders are clinging on by their fingernails. They have had a couple of near misses in the recent past with Tiananmen Square and the like, but Hong Kong could well be the catalyst for China's collapse. Not that it would be a collapse per say, more like the collapse of the former USSR, the British, Roman, Nazi and Khan Empires. A dissolution into disparate parts.

Nothing the world won't get over in a few years or so.

I doubt technological issues would hinder humanity for long. Something happens in the atmosphere that renders all satellites useless? Meh. As previously stated, humanity would quickly fall back to 'old' tech like landlines, radio mast communication, and simple mark one eyeballs against the stars. As ever, if you follow the trails of the doomsayers that say otherwise, they almost always inevitably lead back to people with a vested (ie financial) interest in the tech that is hypothetically 'lost' "We can't do without flight!" Cries the person with millions invested in flight...

As previously stated by other commentators, humanity did remarkably well for itself, before space flight, aeronautical flight, and boats. These things are all luxuries, not necessities. Human kind did not collapse with the banks nor with Mandy and Susan being unable to go to Corfu for sex on the beach because C19 cancelled all flights and therefore their sexual trysts on the beach. Yes, some kids might not exist in 9 months because of it, but others will take their place and humanity will doddle on...

For humanity to collapse and/or regress back to a basic tech level, would require a tangible physical threat that hits the planet in/over a short space of time. Global warming will simply not cut it, humanity and other life will simply adapt. It's what life on Earth is good at. That only realistically leaves a large foreign object from space, one that we didn't see coming. Our own inability to co-exist politely, resulting in lots of missiles being fired everywhere. And nature being a twat with microbes, though history has proved via Black death, influenza and all the other nice diseases thrown at us, that we quickly get over it. Remember back in the 80's when AIDS was going to wipe out humanity? Fast forward a few years and, well, bit of an anti-climax really...

Replies:   Keet
Keet 🚫

@Pixy

Nowadays it's much easier for a collapse of civilization simply because we have progressed towards a world economy where most regions can not provide all that is necessary for themselves. One region may be buried in food where others have nothing, some regions have all the wood they need for building where other regions may have the food but nowhere to live because they have no wood to build with. Just a simple example that was not a big point in history where everything necessary was not too far away simply because they needed it to be near. But as you said, there will always be pockets of humanity that will survive, some even in relative luxury as in having enough food, shelter, and security. A total destruction of all human life would indeed need outside influence but I doubt that even a large meteor strike will kill all of humanity. There won't be many left though...

Pixy 🚫
Updated:

@Keet

One region (or even several) lacking in a particular commodity wouldn't herald the collapse of civilisation, far from it. That's like saying the famine in Africa would cause world collapse. The truth of that statement can be verified just by looking out your window.

All that would happen in that situation, is those in the effected region will simply die or (as in actual reality) they will simply up sticks and move en-masse into neighbouring areas. Humans have always migrated to areas that can sustain them. In ye olden days, it was for food and lodging, nowadays it's for work, but the premise has never changed.

Replies:   Keet
Keet 🚫

@Pixy

... or (as in actual reality) they will simply up sticks and move en-masse into neighbouring areas.

Assuming you have the transportation to move and the communication to know where to move to. As I mentioned, there will always be pockets that survive. The question is how many and how spread.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Keet

Assuming you have the transportation to move

Depending on how far you have to travel, the pair of mark 1 feet they issue to almost everyone works just fine.

As I mentioned, there will always be pockets that survive.

Pixy's point is you are probably only looking at a regional disaster, not global collapse of civilization. We don't need to worry about finding an isolated pocket of survivors to join.

Replies:   Keet
Keet 🚫

@Dominions Son

Pixy's point is you are probably only looking at a regional disaster, not global collapse of civilization. We don't need to worry about finding an isolated pocket of survivors to join.

No, I was specifically targeting a global disaster. A regional disaster is not what the thread is about and is certainly not apocalyptic. My point was that there's a difference between the same disaster happening now as compared to a few hundred years ago.
A few hundred years ago, say before the industrial revolution, a pocket of survivors would have it a lot easier because everything essential to survive was already close by simply because that's the way it was back then. Besides that people were a lot sturdier than the average electricity dependent softy nowadays ;)

Replies:   Pixy
Pixy 🚫

@Keet

Besides that people were a lot sturdier than the average electricity dependent softy nowadays

I found out the hard way that it's very easy to regress to a more basic and robust mind set with appropriate, um, motivation. LOL

Assuming you have the transportation to move and the communication to know where to move to.

Like Dominions Son said, the MK1 foot along with the Mk1 eyeball are very capable when working together. The Romans and Macedonians proved that great distances could be traveled reliably with next to no technology and with very little literacy.

The only way for an apocalyptical scenario to feasibly work, is for the worlds population to be reduced to a few thousand individuals globally over a relatively short period of time. anything less and the survivors will just be subsumed into the most dominant Empire of the time. local traditions might be lost or amalgamated into the new Empire (Christianity/Catholic church was historically excellent in incorporating local folklore into religious doctrine to control the populace), but overall a high degree of technical proficiency would be retained.

Individuals and cults have tried to regress those whom they control with little to no long-term success (The trouble with individuals being the driving force, is that they inevitably die, and with them, their ideology). The Khmer Rouge and the Amish spring to mind when it comes to technical denial.

Replies:   Dominions Son  Keet
Dominions Son 🚫

@Pixy

Individuals and cults have tried to regress those whom they control with little to no long-term success (The trouble with individuals being the driving force, is that they inevitably die, and with them, their ideology). The Khmer Rouge and the Amish spring to mind when it comes to technical denial.

This is ultimately the best differentiator between a cult and and religion. To be a religion, it must survive the death of it's founder.

Keet 🚫

@Pixy

Like Dominions Son said, the MK1 foot along with the Mk1 eyeball are very capable when working together. The Romans and Macedonians proved that great distances could be traveled reliably with next to no technology and with very little literacy.

The only way for an apocalyptical scenario to feasibly work, is for the worlds population to be reduced to a few thousand individuals globally over a relatively short period of time.

We agree but we just word it differently. I was thinking from an apocalyptic scenario where few humans were left thus the transportation problem and not knowing where to go without communication. Over a thousand kilometers is difficult to walk without food and shelter, with just a few people, and not knowing what you will find.
By-the-way, I agree that in this scenario people will regress to almost caveman level just to survive. It will cause even more people to die. Most will stay where they are if there's a group of survivors and a reasonable chance to rebuild towards the basic necessities. A real apocalyptic event will have left little to scavenge so it's hard work to survive.

Remus2 🚫
Updated:

aΒ·pocΒ·aΒ·lypse (Ι™-pŏkβ€²Ι™-lΔ­psβ€²)

n.

1.

a. Apocalypse Abbr. Apoc. Bible The Book of Revelation.

b. Any of a number of anonymous Jewish or Christian texts from around the second century bc to the second century ad containing prophetic or symbolic visions, especially of the imminent destruction of the world and the salvation of the righteous.

2.

a. The end of the world, especially as described in one of these texts.

b. A great catastrophe that results in widespread destruction or the collapse of civilization: "The United States was calling in air strikes and heavy armor until we had the feeling that the whole thing was going to end in apocalypse" (Phillip Robertson).

3. A prophetic disclosure; a revelation.

Without religious consideration, only 2.b. above applies. The total collapse of civilization is not required for it to be considered apocalyptic.

To clarify, it should probably be considered a cataclysm rather than overuse the term apocalypse. Either or could be considered the end of civilization as we know it.

What constitutes civilization has been in constant flux for the entirety of written history. As a result, the term is subjective.

AmigaClone 🚫

While it has never happened in the US, there has been a case where a President Elect became to ill to assume the duties of Presidency before taking office.

In 1985, Brazilian President Elect Tancredo Neves became ill and was hospitalized the night before his inauguration March 14.

The next day, the Vice President Elect took office as Vice President and assumed the duties of Acting President until Tancredo's death on April 21st.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@AmigaClone

That's not a very good example. Context means a lot to that example.
Tancredo hailed the end of a 21 year military regime that resulted from the 1964 coup d'Γ©tat. There was no legitimately elected government during those 21 years.

irvmull 🚫

What I believe is actually going to happen is destruction via (de)evolution.

Remember, evolution doesn't have a goal, it only responds to challenges by weeding out those who cannot overcome those challenges. If there are no challenges, the weeds multiply.

You can see that happening now. People, especially the "woke" generation, have been convinced that "feelings" are the only thing that counts. Rationality is discouraged. Logic is dismissed as useless, old-fashioned, "un-woke" and, of course, racist. Few are even able to name, much less do, the things necessary to sustain human life. For proof, just attempt to read postings on facebook or twitter. (I say attempt, because literacy is another thing that is clearly declining. Kindergarden level is common.)

So, the human race will likely end, not with a bang, but with a lone Evergreen College student huddled in a corner hugging a teddy bear, and trying to decide whether to identify is a he, a she, or a toaster.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@irvmull

trying to decide whether to identify is a he, a she, or a toaster.

Cara 'Cocaine Cara' Delevigne recently declared herself to be a pansexual, so I dare say toastersexuals are possible too.

AJ

Replies:   Dominions Son  Not_a_ID
Dominions Son 🚫

@awnlee jawking

dare say toastersexuals are possible too.

Having sex with a toaster would be hot and electrifying...and not necessarily in good ways.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Dominions Son

I think toastersexuals would be teases - they get you hot and bothered then switch off.

AJ

richardshagrin 🚫

@awnlee jawking

et you hot and bothered then switch off.

Sounds like BDSM. The longer they leave the current on, the harder the punishment.

BDSM is kind of shitty. Double Shit surrounded by BM.

richardshagrin 🚫

@awnlee jawking

et you hot and bothered then switch off.

Sounds like BDSM. The longer they leave the current on, the harder the punishment.

BDSM is kind of shitty. Double Shit surrounded by BM.

Not_a_ID 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Cara 'Cocaine Cara' Delevigne recently declared herself to be a pansexual, so I dare say toastersexuals are possible too.

Pansexual is a sexual preference, not a gender identity.

Most of us old timers would simply say she's bi.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Not_a_ID

Most of us old timers would simply say she's bi.

Some people use pansexual in a sense that would be broader than just bi.

She could mean she's up for sex with anyone, and anything (animals).

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Dominions Son

Some people use pansexual in a sense that would be broader than just bi.

Presuming you're woke - pansexual means you don't care what sexual identity or gender your partner has. All it really means is you're increasing your chances of waking up next to someone else the next morning.

Replies:   richardshagrin
richardshagrin 🚫
Updated:

@StarFleet Carl

next to someone else

or something else.

(animal, robot or android, perhaps an alien) probably not vegetable or mineral.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl 🚫

@richardshagrin

probably not vegetable

Zucchini? Or Terry Schaivo? (Yes, I've a sick sense of humor.)

irvmull 🚫

It was only needed to fold space, not to operate the car...

Great first line for your next story.

irvmull 🚫

Could it be a coincidence?

First integrated circuits: 1958-1959
First integrated Sit-ins: 1958-1960

On a serious note, back in the '70's, I worked with most of Dr. King's SCLC associates. What was I working with?

Integrated circuits! (Not a joke)

blackjack2145309 🚫

Now i know this subject has been kind of talked to death, but i feel i need to post this because of an interesting manga/comic i just laid my eyes on.
The title is "Hungry City" and it's about a vampire that wakes up in the middle of the zombie apocalypse. After i thought about it, it just seems like a completely cool concept to me

Dominions Son 🚫

@blackjack2145309

After i thought about it, it just seems like a completely cool concept to me

It could be. It could also end up exceedingly hokey. In a zombie apocalypse (or any apocalypse really), Vampires would have to work/fight with humans to preserve their food supply.

One interesting approach would be humans on the brink of extinction, vampires step in ranching protected enclaves of humans. Would they be tempted to engage in controlled breading in an attempt to improve blood production?

Replies:   blackjack2145309
blackjack2145309 🚫

@Dominions Son

I admit you have valid points, but still now that i think about it having two supernatural groups struggling against each other for their human "food supply" while they fight humans as well that's an interesting apocalypse story line if i have ever heard one.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@blackjack2145309

but still now that i think about it having two supernatural groups struggling against each other for their human "food supply" while they fight humans as well that's an interesting apocalypse story line if i have ever heard one.

It could be if well executed. A few thoughts:

Supernatural zombies kill humans, but don't really need them for food. And the zombies have the intelligence and organizational ability an insect swarm.

In most stories vampires feed on humans, but don't need to kill to do so, in fact it's better for them long term if they don't. Vampires use humans more like dairy cows than like cattle raised for meat.

Vampires vs Zombie apocalypse would be more like a dairy farmer defending his herd from a swarm of army ants than like two armies clashing over a resource they both want.

For the humans caught in the middle of this, it would be in their best interests to work with the vampires rather than trying to fight two wars at the same time. Of course humans don't always make rational decisions.

awnlee jawking 🚫

@blackjack2145309

it's about a vampire that wakes up in the middle of the zombie apocalypse

For one of my Writers' Group's writing exercises, I zapped off a little something about Dracula's coffin being transported by a spaceship. When an accident happens, Dracula awakens ...

AJ

Ferrum1 🚫

Another Carrington Event would certainly hurt really really bad.

I think what a lot of people forget is that a big solar flare or other "catastrophe" is bad, but it's badness is compounded by what all is tied to the issue. You have your First Order problem, sure, but then you have to deal with the Second Order and Third Order problems that come at you from out of nowhere.

For the sake of efficiency, almost all of our industries rely on computers to operate. The days of having dozens of men running around a factory twisting knobs and adjusting feed rates is long gone.

One decent Carrington Event would reduce us to the early days of the industrial revolution if we were lucky. We'd have to immediately revert to hand tools, local farming and everything else that was common in 1802. We might have the cars, but they are only good for salvaging materials from since there's no way to produce gasoline, oil, grease and all the other things they need.

Another good "what if" angle for an apocalypse would be something that removes/kills a majority of men from society. There used to be a blog that did a review of what would happen if men went on strike like the feminists always say women should do. To prove their "worth" or lack thereof, the author (Judgy Bitch) took a look at the BLS statistics to see what percentages of women worked in any given field. Her findings were very interesting, and it was impossible to argue with the numbers. If men went on strike for 30 days, none showing up for work or being available for conscription, Western Civilization would collapse in less than a month because so many of the vital industries and occupations are almost wholly male. They just happened to be the dirty jobs, oddly enough. ;)

Replies:   Remus2  Tw0Cr0ws
Remus2 🚫

@Ferrum1

It cannot be determined what initiated the Carrington Event. The two primary suspects are solar flares and coronal mass ejections. Then again, an extreme blast of solar wind could have the same effect among other possibilities.

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Ferrum1

They just happened to be the dirty jobs, oddly enough.

Not only the dirty jobs, but the dangerous jobs also.
For every woman that is killed on the job 40 men are killed on the job.
Take a look around the oil fields and try to find a woman working there.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Tw0Cr0ws

Take a look around the oil fields and try to find a woman working there.

I've seen and worked with many such women, though not in the US. While I wasn't specifically counting, I'd place it at roughly 1:100 women to men in the US.

The highest numbers I've came across were roughly 1:20. That was in Australia and Peru, with the former having more numbers among craft than engineering or management.

The places with the least were Russia and China. I didn't witness even one performing any duty related to the patch.

Ferrum1 🚫

How about the dreaded Rumplestiltskin Virus? It's like the Flu except that it puts men to sleep for up to 90 days. No idea why, no medical explanation. No way to wake them up.

One day the guy feels fine, then he starts getting a little sluggish just like any other time a cold or flu is coming on. Light fever, night sweats, and then the long nap.

As more and more men contract the RV, more and more strain is put on all the systems that rely on men to operate. Mining, transportation, defense, construction, maintenance..... every sector starts seeing more and more strain not only because so much of the workforce is male, but because women being quickly trained to take on the work can't get it done in as timely a fashion. It takes 1.5 women to do the work of 1 man, so things are taking longer, adaptations need to be made, etc.

The only saving grace is the fact that the men aren't hit with the RV all at once just like all men don't get the flu at the same time. Of course, that doesn't help too much when they wake up and have to rehab their atrophied muscles.

Replies:   awnlee jawking  Not_a_ID
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Ferrum1

Of course, that doesn't help too much when they wake up and have to rehab their atrophied muscles.

How do they survive the 90 days? Do they have to be given hydration and nutrition? I'm not sure any health service in the world could cope with the numbers - the UK's NHS can't even cope with a few elderly people.

AJ

Replies:   Dominions Son  Ferrum1
Dominions Son 🚫

@awnlee jawking

How do they survive the 90 days?

Real world, feeding tube and IV.

I can see such a virus working by slowing the metabolism of the victim. Slowing it enough for no food/water for 90days in an otherwise near real world story would be pushing it.

I'm not sure any health service in the world could cope with the numbers

A lot depends on how many men are down at any one time.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Dominions Son

Real world, feeding tube and IV.

Again there's a numbers problem. How many would a health service be able to cope with, bearing in mind the specialist equipment, training and hygiene requirements?

Someone I know had to plug their own feeding tube in because the nurses at the hospital weren't qualified to do it.

AJ

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Again there's a numbers problem.

True and I acknowledged as much.

A lot depends on how many men are down at any one time.

Ferrum1 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Well, thankfully, I didn't have to worry about the minutia!

The way I had it written, it was "up to" 90 days, with some men only down for 30 days. Like any illness, there was variation due to age, health, pre-existing issues like cancer treatments, etc. Because the illness didn't hit every guy at the same time, as some men finally succumbed, others were recovering.

And because it was only them sleeping, a lot of the men could be taken care of by their families. As their bodies were shutting down, going into something akin to a hibernation, all their bodily functions were slowed or stopped and it was just a matter of making sure they were comfortable and moved occasionally to prevent bed sores.

At any given time, just to make it "exciting" I postulated that 50% of all men were incapacitated and out of work. That was more than enough to strain the hospitals, homes, and the entire structure of Western civilization. The real problem, for me, was imagining the real-world consequences of that happening.

You can't just jump straight into a Mad Max scenario. The bad guys were sleeping just as much as the good guys were.

So what realistically would happen to society?

The numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell us that western civilization relies 100% on men showing up to do their jobs, and most of the nitty-gritty jobs are staffed exclusively by men. With that as the baseline, how does a drop in mineral extraction and refining ripple out into the rest of society? What about garbage pick up and disposal?

Seeing this recent mess caused by the Kung Flu, I'm not really impressed. It did finally show people the foolishness of relying on a nation like China, but... you'll note a decided lack of harems being built. No sexy slave girls are on the market. In all, I'd say that every author of Post-Apoc stories on SOL got it wrong. Or maybe the apocalyptic event just wasn't apocalyptic enough.

Replies:   Dominions Son  BarBar  Remus2
Dominions Son 🚫

@Ferrum1

Seeing this recent mess caused by the Kung Flu, I'm not really impressed.

Kugh Flu (actually, its a cold), is a major disruption, but it just isn't apocalyptic. The death toll is at least an order of magnitude too low. And most of the economic damage hasn't been done by the pandemic itself, but rather by government over reaction to the pandemic.

BarBar 🚫

@Ferrum1

The numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell us that western civilization relies 100% on men showing up to do their jobs, and most of the nitty-gritty jobs are staffed exclusively by men.

We can answer that from historical precedent. During WW2 when the men marched off to war, the women got recruited into ALL jobs and did them spectacularly well.

Replies:   madnige
madnige 🚫

@BarBar

'Rosie the Riveter' indeed

Remus2 🚫

@Ferrum1

The numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell us that western civilization relies 100% on men showing up to do their jobs, and most of the nitty-gritty jobs are staffed exclusively by men. With that as the baseline, how does a drop in mineral extraction and refining ripple out into the rest of society? What about garbage pick up and disposal?

An example of why that statement isn't true.

The fastest rising demographic in the welding/metalworking trade is women. Furthermore, the nature of modern welding lends well to women.
In particular Gas Tungsten Arc Welding or GTAW aka tig. Boeing in particular proved that beyond any doubt during WW2. Manual Tig welding requires a person to be adept at multitasking; something women excel at. I've personally been on multiple projects where the rejection rates for welds made by women were significantly lower than men.

Line up a list of jobs that require multitasking, and you'll usually have a list of jobs they can do better.

Men on the other hand tend to be better on singular focus task. In the welding realm, that would be stick welding.

The premise that western civilization requires one or the other gender to be 100% is demonstrably wrong. If either gender suddenly disappeared from the work force civilization would collapse.

In today's world, it takes both to survive.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

The fastest rising demographic in the welding/metalworking trade is women.

On its own that statistic is useless. It might be an increase from one woman per million to two women per million.

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@awnlee jawking

On its own that statistic is useless. It might be an increase from one woman per million to two women per million.

Far from it.

https://www.thefabricator.com/thefabricator/article/arcwelding/women-in-welding-on-the-rise

https://www.tws.edu/blog/welding/what-women-considering-a-career-in-welding-should-know/

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2018/08/theres-a-shortage-of-welders-will-more-women-fill-the-gap/567434/

https://www.futureofbusinessandtech.com/women-in-skilled-trades/the-sky-is-the-limit-for-women-in-welding/#

ETA: It's not just welding that is seeing an increase. Long haul truckers is another one. The same applies for mechanics.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

Do any of them contain actual numbers or are they all soundbites?

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@awnlee jawking

Do any of them contain actual numbers or are they all soundbites?

Since you dont trust the information in my links; in the UK, you will need to contact The Welding Institute (TWI).

https://www.twi-global.com/

They track that sort of information and are usually very helpful to those expressing an interest.

In the US, it is the American Welding Society (AWS). https://www.aws.org/

As a general rule, governments don't typically track the specifics themselves, they rely on professional institutions such as listed above. If that's not good enough for you, then I can't help you.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

If that's not good enough for you, then I can't help you.

Okay. I was hoping for statistics like 1000 women in welding in 2000 (0.1%), 100,000 women in welding in 2020 (10%) to actually support your claim, but if they're not available ...

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@awnlee jawking

Those statistics are available through the organizations I've mentioned. I know what what I've stated is true. Anyone who doubts it can contact them and see for themselves.

That wasn't even the primary point I was making however. The point was that western civilization would collapse if 'either' gender suddenly disappeared from the work force. Do you doubt that as well?

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

Those statistics are available through the organizations I've mentioned.

Sigh.

The point was that western civilization would collapse if 'either' gender suddenly disappeared from the work force. Do you doubt that as well?

I agree with that. Despite the productivity gained by division of labour, there are very few people who have the luxury of doing no work at all. I include invisible workers like carers in that because if there's no-one to look after the elderly, the infirm or children, 'key' workers will have to do it instead.

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@awnlee jawking

I include invisible workers like carers in that because if there's no-one to look after the elderly, the infirm or children, 'key' workers will have to do it instead.

Agreed. Few people consider those workers. "Invisible workers" is a good term for them.

Not_a_ID 🚫

@Ferrum1

How about the dreaded Rumplestiltskin Virus? It's like the Flu except that it puts men to sleep for up to 90 days. No idea why, no medical explanation. No way to wake them up.

I think you meant Rip Van Winkle. :)

Ferrum1 🚫

I love when folks start White Knighting!

You want to claim the Bureau of Labor and Statistics is wrong? Go for it. Show your work. You crunch the numbers that the experts apparently got so wrong!

But to claim that an article from XYZ is proof that that the BLS is demonstrably false? Ugh!

I wish Judgy Bitch hadn't pulled down her blog as the article she wrote fairly well addressed the point I made, and served as the impetus for the story I had. The basic gist is this: men do the grunge work that keeps modern society modern. From mining to transportation to repair and maintenance, defense and law enforcement, STEM and Medical, we're not talking about a 60/40 split between the genders. Rather, we're looking at something akin to 90/10 when everything's accounted for. While there are women present in these fields, their numbers are so low that they count as a statistical zero. That basically means that if you removed all the women from those fields, you wouldn't cause any disruption to the job.

Again going by the BLS stats, to be clear.

So what happens to a field of work if 90% of the employees don't show up for a month? Consider your local fire department where only 10% of the actual fire fighting people are female. Your entire state might have a similar breakdown.

Think many fires are going to get fought? Doesn't matter how many women you have in administrative roles within the fire department because they aren't actually trained to fight a fire. And by the time you get them spooled up to a decent enough level.... how much damage is done? How many lives are lost in the interim?

That's the important part. When 'rosie the riveter' was all the rage, companies quickly found that it took 1.2 women to do the same work output as 1 man. They had to hustle to come up with new manufacturing techniques and technologies, basically giving the women an assist because they were physically smaller. Some historians say this was the beginning of the move to automation, though I hold that it was unionization the gets the honor.

When you look at where women naturally gravitate in the workforce, things like Registered Nurses leaps out at you. Sounds great, too, when you consider that something like 70% of all RN's are female. What the stats tell us, though, is that as the difficulty climbs, the percentage of male-to-female shifts to the men. The more training required, or the more hours required, the fewer women you find. Lots of women as RN's, but not so much when it comes to Anesthesiologists, Surgeons, etc. They cover the baseline very well, but women want a more balanced work/home life and don't want to be pulling down 60-hour weeks.

Some say this is definitive proof that women are smarter than men, and I wonder if that's not true. Who wouldn't want to work 40 hours a week rather than 60?

I'm reminded of a conversation I had with an author of a Post-Apoc story. We were discussing this very point and it led to a very nice exchange that really got the grey matter working.

The bottom line, as we found it, is that even if you had 50% of the workforce showing up, it would still shut things down because you can't have planes flying if there are no ground crews or maintenance people. And just because you had a good mix of people on your end doesn't necessarily mean there will be a good mix of people on the other end. Who can fly a plane from Atlanta to LA isn't really relevant if you don't have a crew in LA who can land the plane, refuel it, read the radar, stand by in case of a crash landing, etc. You'd literally be reduced to flying crop-dusters from the 30's, and even that would only last as long as you could source fuel for the things because there's no telling if the refineries could operate.

That ripple effect is a curious thing. One part goes tits-up and the rest collapses because of it. I think the complexity of the issue is one of the reasons why most authors don't touch on it in their stories.

If there was a Carrington Event today, we'd be right back to the early iron age in a skinny minute, but only if we happened to live in a small geographic area that happened to have both coal and iron resources, and had people with some hands-on experience in historical reenactment and the like. Without our computers, there's no cars, trucks, planes, factory farms, packing plants, etc. You'd have to get your meat from a local producer.... and how many of those are within easy walking distance from you?

Always fun to think about.

Replies:   BarBar
BarBar 🚫

@Ferrum1

Consider your local fire department where only 10% of the actual fire fighting people are female. Think many fires are going to get fought? Doesn't matter how many women you have in administrative roles within the fire department because they aren't actually trained to fight a fire. And by the time you get them spooled up to a decent enough level.... how much damage is done? How many lives are lost in the interim?

If I were working in a fire department and suddenly none of the men were around, I would be grabbing those admin workers (who all sit through basic training vids on how to use a fire extinguisher etc even if they aren't actually trained), plus calling for volunteers from the community and dividing them up into teams. Then I would take my handful of women who were trained/experience and stick one in charge of each team. Then I would get them training their teams and send them to fires when needed with the instructions to only work within the capability of the team.

Fires would get fought. Maybe not as effectively as before. Maybe without people charging into burning buildings as often, but fires would be fought. Why? Because fires that aren't being attacked spread too easily into neighbouring buildings and soon one fire turns into a firestorm that can wipe out city blocks.

Apply the same practice to all essential jobs and work would get done. Again, maybe not as effectively as before but things that need to be done would get done in most places. After all, in such a situation, payrolls, taxes, form filling, tertiary academia, etc, etc would all be temporarily redundant while the people left dealt with the emergency situation.

It would rely on leaders stepping forward and leading. Apart from anything else, suddenly the population has halved and the people left are dealing with grief, loss, confusion, etc, while at the same time trying to figure out what needs to be done and how to do it.

But you can be damned sure that most women wouldn't sit helplessly in their homes and do nothing while the civilisation around them crashed.

Replies:   Ferrum1  Not_a_ID
Ferrum1 🚫

@BarBar

Easier said than done.

What if there are no women in the FD anywhere around you? There aren't in my local. And, fighting fires is a whole lot more troublesome than just squirting a hose at something. How many "firestorms" can you expect when there's nobody to drive the trucks, or to keep them maintained?

That "charging into burning buildings" you speak of is what saves lives. How many are going to die if you're not charging into those burning buildings? How many are going to die because they did charge in, but couldn't get back out in time, overloaded with equipment as they are?

You're right about all the bad things that can happen, and that's the point of the story. Some 80% of emergency responders are men. Training up a crew of women to do the same work... just isn't going to happen in any sort of timely fashion, and that's if you can find the women willing to do the work.

Reminds me of something Camile Paglia said, "If women were in charge, we'd still be living in mud huts, but we'd have nice drapes." :D

Not_a_ID 🚫

@BarBar

If I were working in a fire department and suddenly none of the men were around, I would be grabbing those admin workers (who all sit through basic training vids on how to use a fire extinguisher etc even if they aren't actually trained), plus calling for volunteers from the community and dividing them up into teams. Then I would take my handful of women who were trained/experience and stick one in charge of each team. Then I would get them training their teams and send them to fires when needed with the instructions to only work within the capability of the team.

Probably be a good idea to put the call out to any available Navy Veterans able to respond in the area. While they may not have been trained on structural firefighting, they at least had training in shipboard firefighting when they served. So they should have some clue as to what they're doing, even if it has been a decade or more since they last used it.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Not_a_ID

While they may not have been trained on structural firefighting, they at least had training in shipboard firefighting when they served.

I don't know it directly, but I've heard everyone who serves aboard a naval vessel has to have at least minimal firefighter training. Can I assume that to be true in your experience?

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@Remus2

I don't know it directly, but I've heard everyone who serves aboard a naval vessel has to have at least minimal firefighter training. Can I assume that to be true in your experience?

They're trained in firefighting. However, their training is a little more specialized in nature. Like I said previously, they don't have "structural firefighting" training as they wouldn't be going into an "unknown structure" to fight a fire.

They'd be fighting a fire on a ship made of metal, typically steel. So steel floor, steel walls, steel ceilings, and typically steel or other metal doors, depending on if you're above or below the main deck, or otherwise between watertight bulkheads. (Not every space is necessarily "water tight" on its own)

Everything else is a permutation from there. The Navy training should be passably decent for placing them on a "hose team" for putting out a fire in a car, on a runway, or outside in general, so long as they have a water supply available.

But if they're going to be fighting a forest fire with shovels and axes instead of water, they're going to need some additional training. But not nearly as much as Joe Citizen off the street.

They'd be borderline dangerous to themselves and others in regards to anything structural with regards to firefighting and "unknown structures" as what works on a Navy ship where the room is enclosed in metal which is unlikely to melt enough to be a hazard, is a very different thing than entering a "stick built home" while it is on fire. That's a very different skill set, one they don't need on the water, and as such, it isn't one the typical sailor would have any training on.

The smarter sailors playing community firefighter with only the training they had in the Navy would determine the extent of the fire, and if it isn't a small one by the time they arrive, they'll just try to setup a perimeter around the building and let it burn down. They won't go inside after the initial assessment. Someone trapped inside becomes a very situational call on what they may or may not do at that point.

The sailors do have training on Breathing Apparatus, although the older sailors would be remembering the old coal miner set, rather than the more modern SCBA gear. Aside from that, they'll have an understanding of personal protective gear, although how much experience they have wearing it may be another matter. Many of them probably have never worn the full protective ensemble unless they went through one of the Advanced Firefighting Trainer classes off of the ship, and that isn't part of boot camp. (Or at least, wasn't when I went through in the 90's)

The only time during my 8 years of active duty that I wore the full "fire-fighters ensemble" of SCBA, heavy protective garments, helmet, etc was when I went through the week long Advanced Damage Control/Firefighting class in order to become qualified as a repair locker leader.

Beyond that, general training is cover your skin to the maximum extent possible, tuck your pants into your socks, put on you flame retardant gloves and hood(after putting on your breathing apparatus) and go fight that class A("normal" flammables)/B(oil/grease based fires)/C(electrical)/D(the material on fire is its own fuel/oxygen source) fire with the appropriate gear, being mindful that a fire can become a mixture of fire classifications.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@Not_a_ID

Thanks for the detailed answer. I've designed and worked systems for LNG carriers; much of what you said aligns with that.

I've also designed and worked systems for NFPA code compliance. Based on what you've described, I think you might be surprised how well that Navy training would carry over into structural fire fighting.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@Remus2

I've also designed and worked systems for NFPA code compliance. Based on what you've described, I think you might be surprised how well that Navy training would carry over into structural fire fighting.

I'm sure a lot of it would. But the expression "I know enough to be dangerous" also applies.

The prior Navy personnel know a significant amount about fire fighting, but it was training tailored around a single set of environments. As such there are gaps in their training. Gaps that can be covered easily enough in a formal training environment.

But when you're dealing with a situation where there isn't time, or enough remaining available expertise available to fill in those gaps. Those gaps in knowledge can prove fatal.

Sailors generally don't have to worry about the compartment they're in collapsing on them as a consequence of the fire itself. They don't need training on being able to gauge when a building, or portion of a building, is safe to enter with a hose team to fight the fire from the inside.

But they would know enough to get behind the idea of setting up a fire perimeter and preventing the spread from the first building. Even using a ladder truck to poke holes in the roof to spray in water from above. As fighting fires from all 6 sides(where applicable) is material covered in Navy training.

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

Rosie the Riveter was from a very different generation than today's 'call a professional' for everything generation. Back then self-sufficiency and doing it yourself was more normal.

richardshagrin 🚫

I believe the people in Seattle are far more irritating than those in British Columbia. Of course the people in Northwestern Canada are far older than those in Seattle, whose vision is 20/20 but the Canadians are from BC.

LupusDei 🚫

Linking back to thread title, civilization collapse through suicide "epidemic"?

Remus2 🚫

@LupusDei

Linking back to thread title, civilization collapse through suicide "epidemic"?

I can see some possibilities there, bio weapon induced mass psychosis for instance. How do you see something like that happening?

Replies:   Dominions Son  LupusDei
Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

I can see some possibilities there, bio weapon induced mass psychosis for instance.

Why a bio weapon? Government gets so fucked up and corrupt and no hope of successful revolution so devoid of any hope people start killing themselves in large numbers.

blackjack2145309 🚫

@Dominions Son

Why a bio weapon? Government gets so fucked up and corrupt and no hope of successful revolution so devoid of any hope people start killing themselves in large numbers.

Like i said in my previous post, it's like you said DS, it all depends on the execution. I mean really what's the triggering event in a scenario like this? Because the way i see it something F*cked up needs to happen before an apocalyptic level of people go immediately to suicide.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@blackjack2145309

Because the way i see it something F*cked up needs

Modern governments are seriously fucked up, and getting worse every day.

blackjack2145309 🚫

@Dominions Son

I can't disagree. But when i mean fucked up i'm talking fucked up to the point either martial law is declared or radical politicians do something like bring back slavery in a modern age.

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

@Dominions Son

Modern governments are seriously fucked up, and getting worse every day.

It isn't that they were that much better before but that many people were much less aware of how bad it was. History glosses over much of past bad deeds (at least on the part of the winners) and most people do not study history anyway.
With that said they are getting worse, but that is the nature of such things.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

The majority of people do not study, history or otherwise. They prefer to be spoon feed their 'facts' rather than actual study.

Replies:   Keet  Mushroom
Keet 🚫

@Remus2

The majority of people do not study, history or otherwise. They prefer to be spoon feed their 'facts' rather than actual study.

Yep, and if you did study history and/or background and dare to voice your opinion based on the real facts you learned you are called a radical, racist, anarchist, or some other explicative.

Replies:   BarBar
BarBar 🚫

@Keet

if you did study history and/or background and dare to voice your opinion based on the real facts you learned you are called a radical, racist, anarchist, or some other explicative.

Studying and quoting real facts from history doesn't stop a person from being a radical, a racist, an anarchist, or any other type of pot-stirrer. Many such people are quite capable of quoting a historical situation or precedent that "proves" their point.

However, your point is valid. Often the name calling starts when someone presents facts that are different from what the listener wants to hear.

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@BarBar

However, your point is valid. Often the name calling starts when someone presents facts that are different from what the listener wants to hear.

Bigger problem are the presenters bringing forward facts which aren't relevant to the topic at hand.

Like the US Constitution being "racist" because certain people involved with drafting it said or did incredibly racist things. Even though the document itself only tangentially gets into race at all. ("Congress shall make no law regarding slaves for the first ___ years" "Slaves(not to be confused with free blacks) will be counted for the purpose of enumeration as 3/5ths of a person" and of course the provision about counting native populations separately, because they were treated as their own sovereign nations and not as subjects to the US at the time of the drafting.)

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Not_a_ID

"Slaves(not to be confused with free blacks) will be counted for the purpose of enumeration as 3/5ths of a person"

The complaint here is that the 3/5ths compromise gave the slave states disproportionate power in the House of Representatives to block any attempt to outlaw slavery, thus it's a pro slavery clause.

Well, kind of, versus not counting slaves at all, but what the slave states wanted was for slaves to count in full for determining representation. So it's less disproportionate representation than they wanted.

Replies:   Not_a_ID  Mushroom
Not_a_ID 🚫
Updated:

@Dominions Son

The complaint here is that the 3/5ths compromise gave the slave states disproportionate power in the House of Representatives to block any attempt to outlaw slavery, thus it's a pro slavery clause.

That isn't the complaint I've ever heard when the "3/5ths of a person" complaint comes up.

They claim all blacks were counted as 3/5ths of a person, even though it was only slaves who were counted that way.

They also ignore it was the pro-slavery block who wanted "a full count" for the slaves, the abolitionists were the ones who wanted to make slaves not count at all.

Can you imagine their talking point if the abolitionists had won that without need to compromise? Then the founders would have been super-racist because "the Constitution said blacks don't even count as people." rather than the 3/5ths of a person count they(the enslaved) received.

Replies:   Keet  Ferrum1
Keet 🚫

@Not_a_ID

Can you imagine their talking point if the abolitionists had won that without need to compromise? Then the founders would have been super-racist because "the Constitution said blacks don't even count as people." rather than the 3/5ths of a person count they(the enslaved) received.

Sometimes there's just no way to win however good your intentions are...

Ferrum1 🚫

@Not_a_ID

As I read it, it wasn't saying anyone counted as less than fully a person, but that only 3 out of 5 would be counted. So if you have 100 slaves, you would only get 'credit' for 60 of them.

The idea that that means each slave is only considered 3/5th's of a person was ridiculous even then. It's like saying that you're 1/4 female because you're in a room with 3 women. Who would even think of that kind of twisting?

As you note, the full count would have given all of the control and power to the pro-slavery groups. Why anyone thinks that's a good idea is beyond me, but it goes to show that modern political activists aren't actually trying to make anything better.

Mushroom 🚫

@Dominions Son

The complaint here is that the 3/5ths compromise gave the slave states disproportionate power in the House of Representatives to block any attempt to outlaw slavery, thus it's a pro slavery clause.

Irrelevant. Because either with or without it, no law could have been passed ever because of the Senate. There, the scales were much more balanced.

Then to make it even more complex. There really could not have been such a law passed, because slavery was already recognized in the Constitution. So the only way it could have been eliminated would have been through a Constitutional Amendment (the Thirteenth Amendment). Without the Civil War and Reconstruction, that would have never=ever passed. Period.

So even if that clause had never even been in the original document, the idea is that is why slavery remained is pure fantasy. Because even if the Southern States had absolutely no power in the House other than the "White Citizens", any attempt to pass a law to eliminate slavery would have died. Either in the Senate, or in front of the Supreme Court.

Replies:   Remus2  Dominions Son
Remus2 🚫

@Mushroom

Slavery in the US was destined to kill itself with or without laws. Technology was already poised to kill it prior to the civil war. Advances in technology turned the economics against slavery. Tractors, steam engines, cotton gins, etc, don't need to be feed or housed. It would have taken a bit longer without the civil war, but not by much.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@Remus2

Slavery in the US was destined to kill itself with or without laws. Technology was already poised to kill it prior to the civil war. Advances in technology turned the economics against slavery. Tractors, steam engines, cotton gins, etc, don't need to be feed or housed. It would have taken a bit longer without the civil war, but not by much.

In that I agree, most of the planet had already eliminated it. And it was on the way out, it just would have taken longer.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Mushroom

In that I agree, most of the planet had already eliminated it. And it was on the way out, it just would have taken longer.

It died as an institution a long time ago. However, slavery is still alive today in all its forms and a few new ones. These days, it's called human trafficking. Illegal in nearly all recognized countries, but the difference in legal and illegal is semantics to some.

I doubt it will ever be truly eradicated, though we can at least wish it so.

We should also remember slavery/human trafficking favors no specific race/ethnicity. Around the world, every race is trafficked to greater and lesser degrees.

Dominions Son 🚫

@Mushroom

There really could not have been such a law passed, because slavery was already recognized in the Constitution.

No. There are only two clauses in the Constitution that have anything at all to do with slavery. The 3/5ths clause and the Migration or Importation clause.

However, the Migration or Importation clause only barred Congress from banning the importation of slaves prior to 1808.

After 1808, there is no constitutional bar on Congress outlawing slavery.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@Dominions Son

No. There are only two clauses in the Constitution that have anything at all to do with slavery. The 3/5ths clause and the Migration or Importation clause.

However, the Migration or Importation clause only barred Congress from banning the importation of slaves prior to 1808.

And what part of the Constitution allows for the seizure of personal property en-mass? This is why I say it would require a Constitutional Amendment, because otherwise the Supreme Court would immediately strike it down.

"No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation."

And the government could never have bought them, that is a fantasy. Around 4 million slaves, at an average price of $800 each, that is over $3.2 billion. Our entire budget at that time was only $63 million. Our entire national GDP was only $5.3 billion.

No, if they had even somehow managed to get such a law passed, the Supreme Court would have struck it immediately. Slaves were property, and the Government could not just free them without fair compensation. And there is no way the Government could ever have afforded to do that.

This was avoided because of the Emancipation Proclamation (allowed as a war act against states in rebellion) allowed emancipation without compensation. Combined with a Constitutional Amendment. No law could have ever done that alone.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Mushroom

And the government could never have bought them, that is a fantasy.

No, they couldn't. However they could change the law so that the children of slaves were free and not slaves themselves, which would technically not be a taking.

Add that to the fact that the importation of new slaves from Africa had already been prohibited and slavery would be dead.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@Dominions Son

No, they couldn't. However they could change the law so that the children of slaves were free and not slaves themselves, which would technically not be a taking.

And fine. That solves the next generation, but does not really resolve the issue. Then you have the other issues which are guaranteed to be brought up. Like who pays for them to be raised? Can it be mandated that the owner of the slaves pay for the raising of their children?

Realize, I am from a long family of abolitionists. And the things I am bringing up are not even new, these things were actually hashed out in the mid-19th century. This is why all of the earlier attempts to do things exactly like this failed every time.

The last verified individual to have been born in slavery in the US died in 1951. He was also one of the last Confederate pensioners. So fine, the children are born free. That still means millions of slaves into the 20th century.

Mushroom 🚫

@Remus2

The majority of people do not study, history or otherwise. They prefer to be spoon feed their 'facts' rather than actual study.

I see that over and over again, and it drives me crazy.

I participate in many forums in areas about history and the military. And one thing that always ticks me off is when we are discussing US involvement in WWI, and somebody just jumps in and starts to talk about the SS Lusitania.

It is a giant face-palm for me, and tells me they likely have nothing beyond a Junior High level understanding of the history of that conflict. Then bring up the Zimmerman Telegram, and they can not understand why we would feel threatened by Mexico attacking us. Apparently not even knowing that Pancho Villa attacked and burned a town in New Mexico in 1916.

I think my biggest problem is that what we learned in school should be a foundation that we constantly expand on. And far to many people just assume all they need to know and do not bother to learn ever again. I am 55 years old, and I am still constantly trying to learn as much about history as I can.

awnlee jawking 🚫

@Dominions Son

No need for a bio weapon when you've got social media. It will be interesting to watch the covid statistics for Bristol and Manchester, where R was greater than one yet large numbers of woke demonstrators ignored social distancing to celebrate the annual demonstration season and attend illegal raves etc.

AJ

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫
Updated:

@awnlee jawking

t will be interesting to watch the covid statistics for Bristol and Manchester

Most interesting would be a spike in infections, but not deaths.

The more we learn about it, the lower the CFR* estimates get.

I've actually seen articles trying to claim it's already mutated to be less lethal, trying to cover their asses over early and widely overstated estimates of covid's lethality.

*Case Fatality Rate

Replies:   Not_a_ID
Not_a_ID 🚫

@Dominions Son

I've actually seen articles trying to claim it's already mutated to be less lethal, trying to cover their asses over early and widely overstated estimates of covid's lethality.

Their easier way to "cover" for that is the whole matter that most of the infected in the recent wave are aged 35 and younger, and their mortality rate was already understood to be very low.

Throw in improved treatment options for them on top of it, and it makes Covid19 much less scary... Until you start looking at the 50+ crowd.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@Not_a_ID

Their easier way to "cover" for that

I agree, which just makes the "experts" pushing the "it's mutated to be less lethal" line even sillier.

LupusDei 🚫

@Remus2

I can see some possibilities there, bio weapon induced mass psychosis for instance. How do you see something like that happening?

Was just a stray thought really.

In Soylent Green (I only have seen the movie, a long time ago) the ecology was at the point food production was nearly impossible, government was scooping up protesters by adapted garbage collection vehicles and shipping them off to what was eventually proven to be meat processing plants, and assisted suicide kit could be bought in every store, because rapid depopulation through voluntary suicide was the policy.

Frankly, I don't think it's realistic even if mix of (supposedly) good information, extremely depressing data suggesting no (livable) future, and (near) perfect oppressive regime could possibly create volatile enough mix to induce mass depression. Antidepressants and drugs in general can only go so far, temporary escape in virtual reality may not be enough, and at some point the mass depression may fuel itself: when people you know or work with start killing themselves...

However, even the worst nightmare regimes haven't seen notable mass suicide events, as far I know.

An insane religious cult could work, but it has to be extremely convincing.

It has been suggested that forced "perfect" utopia could incite suicide easier and more readily than any hardships (because theres no goals left?). Well, once suicides start in enough numbers it would likely case to be utopia, but that can only trigger others...

To incite suicide one has to destroy person's self worth and hope of better future. Bio weapon inducing mass hysteria and depression could actually be a clever idea, and explain how the condition starts suddenly and goes unresolved long enough.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@LupusDei

In Soylent Green (I only have seen the movie, a long time ago) the ecology was at the point food production was nearly impossible, government was scooping up protesters by adapted garbage collection vehicles and shipping them off to what was eventually proven to be meat processing plants, and assisted suicide kit could be bought in every store, because rapid depopulation through voluntary suicide was the policy.

Soylent Green, the OTHER 'White Meat'.

Actually, cannibalism was not in the original novel (called "Make Room, Make Room") at all, and one of the reasons Harry Harrison hated the movie. And that was not done with the protesters, only those sent to the suicide clinics. Criminals were essentially used as slaves, such as the concubines the elite had in their houses and considered "furniture".

And there were no "home kits", you went to a center where they played images on the walls and played music. I actually still watch this movie every year or so, was a superb final role for Edward G. Robinson. He died of cancer less than 2 weeks after filming ended.

blackjack2145309 🚫

@LupusDei

Linking back to thread title, civilization collapse through suicide "epidemic"?

It's not a bad idea but i think i'd have to say to it what Dominion's Son said to one of my ideas "it depends on the execution."

I think the bio weapon angle is best for this little idea because it covers a higher percentage of people being effected.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@LupusDei

civilization collapse through suicide "epidemic"?

The Happening, 2008

Already been done, by M. Night Shyamalan

richardshagrin 🚫

Civilization's worst catastrophe--you can't log in to StoriesonLine.net.

Tw0Cr0ws 🚫

Eliminating slavery brought its own unintended consequences; the Rwandan genocide for example.
Prior to the end of slavery the tribes would sell the other tribes they defeated in order to get rid of them, since then they chop them up with machetes.

Replies:   madnige
madnige 🚫

@Tw0Cr0ws

Prior to the end of slavery the tribes would sell the other tribes they defeated in order to get rid of them

...which is of course where the slaves came from in the first place, so the view could (should?) be taken that the slave trade preserved the lives of the slaves who went to the Americas.

irvmull 🚫

Back to the topic - IMHO the three most likely causes of a civilization collapse (at least in the Americas):

3. Yellowstone caldera going kaboom
2. EMP strike (Kim going kaboom)
1. Rapid decline of any useful intelligence on the part of each new generation. Slow, painful, but we can see it coming.

richardshagrin 🚫

@irvmull

Rapid decline of any useful intelligence on the part of each new generation

This may have been happening for a long time. One example is who gets elected. On the other hand, a relatively small number of people keep the society stable and even moving upward, in terms of living standards. We eat (too) well, despite a number of homeless people, we inhabit larger, better residences, Utilities continue to function bringing us water, sewer services, garbage collection, electricity, telephone and other communications services (internet, television programs), Medical care is usually available if needed, law enforcement continues to be provided (the United States is among the leaders for traffic safety, there are countries where it isn't safe to travel by road.) Education continues to be provided. Maybe not MIT quality in most schools, but the vast majority of graduates can read and write and do a modest amount of calculation. There are countries where a very small proportion of people are literate.

Replies:   irvmull
irvmull 🚫

@richardshagrin

On the other hand, a relatively small number of people keep the society stable and even moving upward, in terms of living standards.

History shows that more often than not, those are the first to be executed or sent to "re-education" camps when the revolution occurs. And there are plenty of signs that there is an increasing supply of "useful idiots" who the next revolutionary leader will need to do his dirty work.

And there's a big difference between intelligence and useful intelligence. Try getting a graduate who majored in gender-fluid basket weaving to build a bridge.

There is, IMHO, a very mistaken idea that evolution moves in an "upward" direction. In a world where things are safe and everything you need is available at the nearest WalMart, it's only a matter of time until humans revert to amorphous lumps on electric scooters, riding up and down the isles gobbling Hostess Twinkies.

That's what the aliens are waiting for....

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@irvmull

And there's a big difference between intelligence and useful intelligence. Try getting a graduate who majored in gender-fluid basket weaving to build a bridge.

There is, IMHO, a very mistaken idea that evolution moves in an "upward" direction. In a world where things are safe and everything you need is available at the nearest WalMart, it's only a matter of time until humans revert to amorphous lumps on electric scooters, riding up and down the isles gobbling Hostess Twinkies.

"Useful intelligence"... There isn't much of that going around these days. That includes several engineering programs, not just gender fluid basket weaving.
I enjoyed working, the challenge of a new design, fixing problems, creating another material, and all the other things a mechanical/materials engineer does. But what was coming out of modern academia terrified me and still does.

On my last project, we had some interns in their fourth year. During a meeting early on in the project, I had a concern regarding the calcs on a moment connection. The math was cut and dry, M = F x d basic level stuff, that showed the materials and joint design were not up to the intended shear/tensile/compression loads.
One of those interns turned to me and asked "what's a moment connection?" I was taken aback by that question. A general conversation ensues that got into basic metallurgy. Ultimate/Yield tensile strength, bulk modulus, etc along with grain structure basics and their impact on all the above.

This carried on for two days on and off. Towards the end, it became apparent that without the computer model, they were totally lost. The very same model that screwed up the original load calc. As it turned out, the materials specs had gotten corrupted in the data base. Not a big deal on the surface, and easily fixed by IT.

However, this question popped into my mind. "How many times has this happened where no one questioned the data generated?" Would these new prospective engineers know enough to catch it? Cramming for a test doesn't equal applied knowledge.

The project was winding down when this happened down in Florida.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article212571434.html
https://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Documents/2019-HWY18MH009-BMG-abstract.pdf

From the latter;

8. FIGG Bridge Engineers (1) made significant design errors in the determination of loads, leading to a severe underestimation of the demands placed on critical portions of the pedestrian bridge; and (2) significantly overestimated the capacity of the member 1/2 and 11/12 nodal regions.

9. Based on analytical modeling results, FIGG Bridge Engineers should have considered the loadings from all critical construction stages when designing the pedestrian bridge and determining the governing interface shear demands.

10. In several instances throughout the bridge design process, the FIGG Bridge Engineers models produced reasonable estimations for interface shear demand, but these values were not always used in the design of truss members to resist force demands.

11. FIGG Bridge Engineers' analytical modeling for the bridge design resulted in a significant underestimation of demand at critical and highly loaded nodal regions

Probable Cause

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) determines that the probable cause of the Florida International University (FIU) pedestrian bridge collapse was the load and capacity calculation errors made by FIGG Bridge Engineers, Inc., (FIGG) in its design of the main span truss member 11/12 nodal region and connection to the bridge deck. Contributing to the collapse was the inadequate peer review performed by Louis Berger, which failed to detect the calculation errors in the bridge design.

In essence, the very thing that scared me on my last project happened on that bridge project. They are hanging Berger out to dry and rightfully so, but what about the rest of them?

Those interns are tomorrow's Berger's.

I'll be damned if I'll be responsible for someone else's screw up. I retired after that.

A smart person would be very very afraid of what's coming out of academia these days.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@irvmull

3. Yellowstone caldera going kaboom

Harry Turtledove wrote possibly one of his worst series of books based upon that event. The series was called 'Supervolcano', and I'm actually glad I only read them at Barnes & Noble, instead of actually buying them like I normally did with his books.

Yellowstone going boom doesn't just collapse civilization in the United States - it pretty much destroys the United States as any kind of viable entity, along with Canada and Mexico, and does a darned good number on the entire northern hemisphere.

You could also make the case that since it basically bury America's breadbasket under several FEET of ash, that mass starvation around the world would result as well, especially since there would be nearly no crops grown in the decade (not year, but DECADE) AFTER the explosion anywhere in the world, due to the lowering of the global temperature from all the particulate matter in the atmosphere.

That could, literally, collapse civilization around the world. (Although with the lowering of the average global temperature by 15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit, you might see some desert lands in other nations become arable.)

Replies:   Mushroom  Remus2
Mushroom 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

Harry Turtledove wrote possibly one of his worst series of books based upon that event. The series was called 'Supervolcano', and I'm actually glad I only read them at Barnes & Noble, instead of actually buying them like I normally did with his books.

I thought it was OK, but very different than his usual works.

However, he did do his research. Mount Toba (the most recent such event in Indonesia in 70kya) left ashfall in excess of a foot across most of South Asia. And caused plunging temperatures worldwide. And also he did it a bit different, because the Yellowstone Caldera is different than all others known.

Most previous events were singular and never repeated. The volcano erupts, the lava chamber empties, then the volcano collapses in on itself. Yellowstone in comparison never had a "volcanic cone" over it, it has always been this slow moving caldera that started at the Idaho-Oregon-Nevada border, and over millions of years "moved" to the East. None others have shown this habit, of returning almost predictably (geologically) and repeating.

I think the series is weaker, when you consider that most of his well known ones are essentially "war books", hidden as sci-fi. Although ones where the South wins the war, or space lizards jump into the middle of WWII.

As far as "desert lands" becoming arable, that is actually more likely as things get warmer. Speaking geologically, increased water allows the coastal zones to move inland, increasing their ecosystem's access to water. And the planet generally becomes much more humid, holding back the desert expansion and even reversing it. And more liquid in the environment tends to increase wetlands.

This is all from geological records, and has been seen over and over again. While we always assume a hotter planet is drier, in the past it was actually the reverse. The driest phases were actually during ice ages, when the cold froze out the moisture from the air, and sequestered water in ice caps.

Hence, the driest continent on the planet being Antarctica.

Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@StarFleet Carl

The top three producers of food are;

1. China

2. India

3. America

Special mention to Brazil and Russia, as they are catching up to the top three fast.

The top two consumers are China and India in that order. That pretty well offsets their gains in the rankings. China in particular would be devestated by such an event as they are in the same hemisphere as Yellowstone. It would not do the world at large any favors, but some places would be hit worse than others. The North American continent would be effectively wiped out, so they would not be in the picture.

The probability of such an event occurring is high. It's not so much if, it's when. When could be tomorrow, next week, or ten thousand plus years from now. The people predicting it don't have a clue what they are talking about if they are putting a specific date to it.

I'm more inclined to believe an apocalypse would come out of left field, where no one expects it to.


Something like this for instance.


No one can explain that anomaly, if it's a threat, or have even a clue how,long it's been cycling.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@Remus2

The top three producers of food are;

1. China
2. India
3. America

And even worse, the US is the largest food exporting nation in the world, by a long ways. The US exports more food than the number 2 and 3 nations combined, and half of the exports of the number 3 nation. It exports more than all of the EU combined (including the UK).

If that vanished, that would cause a world-wide famine even if no other nations were affected. Yes, China and India produce more, but their higher populations demand most of that production.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Mushroom

As I stated;

The top two consumers are China and India in that order. That pretty well offsets their gains in the rankings.

As far as famine goes, if any one or more of the top ten producers suddenly stopped producing, a world wide food shortage would ensue that likely would rate being called a famine.

One sleeper in all that is Russia. After the fall of the USSR, their food production tanked. The former Soviet States took with them large amounts of food production leaving Russia in a bind. However by 2016, they became the largest exporter of wheat for that year. In the same year, Aleksandr Tkachev, the then agriculture minister, stated "Grain is our second oil."

Their agriculture has advanced by leaps and bounds in the intervening years. For its part, the west hasn't been paying much attention to it. That to me is extremely foolish. One of the key things keeping the Russians in check from going full rogue is sanctions/threat of sanctions. Basically the same thing the world does with other nations considered to be rogue, examples being North Korea and Iran.

They are not far away from the ability to close their borders with nothing going in or out. That includes oil, grains, metals, etc. If they did that, Europe would be screwed energy wise, and likely for food.

The only reason China isn't already in that position is its populace. Cut off their food, and China as a country dies fast. Therefore, it's in China's best interest not to go full rogue. If Russia is allowed to progress another full decade on its current path, they will be in the position to do just that.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking 🚫

@Remus2

That includes oil, grains, metals, etc. If they did that, Europe would be screwed energy wise, and likely for food.

I suspect their gas is more important to Europe than oil. In a hysterical response to the Japanese nuclear accident, some EU countries ditched nuclear, becoming dependent on fossil fuels and in particular Russian gas.

AJ

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫
Updated:

@awnlee jawking

I suspect their gas is more important to Europe than oil. In a hysterical response to the Japanese nuclear accident, some EU countries ditched nuclear, becoming dependent on fossil fuels and in particular Russian gas.

When I say oil, it's meant as in O&G, oil and gas. Apologies for the assumption. Most people who've worked the patch assume, but often forget those who haven't take it literally.

Calling Fukushima an accident is a misnomer though. It was more arrogance, greed, and incompetence than an accident. That original site was a GE Mark 1 design. Later upgraded partially to M3.

International Nuclear Safety Group (INSG), GE, USNRC, and others recommended an upgrade to M4 (technically list as M3+) long before that disaster. Primarily due to updated seismic information along with better Tsunami modeling. Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) ignored that recommendation.

Futher, another recommendation from the same sources recommended that they dry cask store the spent fuel they had on site. That was mostly ignored as well. They had 88% of all fuel ever burned there still in their spent fuel pool which had already been expanded to accommodate it.

TEPCO rolled the dice and lost.

Europe's reaction baffled the hell out of me. Framatome/Areva and other Western European nuclear reactors had, and still have, the highest safety records in the world. So the best built, maintained, and best run reactors get shut down because the worst run and poorly maintained reactor has a disaster???? Whomever came up with that idea needed a good shoeing in the testicles for that plan.

Now, as you say, they are dependent upon Russian gas among other fossil fuels. That makes zero sense.

Edited for spellchecker error 7-1-20

Replies:   Keet
Keet 🚫

@Remus2

So the best built, maintained, and best run reactors get shut down because the worst run and poorly maintained reactor has a disaster???? Whomever came up with that idea needed a good shoeing in the testicles for that plan.

Politics, it's all about politics.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Keet

Politics, it's all about politics.

Could be. Damned if I understand the logic (or lack thereof) they used even now.

richardshagrin 🚫

@Remus2

I understand the logic

Politics is about being elected the first time and then being re-elected until you die. It greatly aids re-election to be seen as doing something that can be portrayed as good so voters will provide majority votes in the required number of jurisdictions to get re-elected. It doesn't have to work, or be good. But things like FDR and the Democratic Party voted to make concentration camps for Japanese Americans during WW2 and got a lot of support and helped with re-election in 1942 and 1944. It didn't hurt them at all until the late 20th Century and early 21st. Constitution? What Constitution? It gets votes, lets do it.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫
Updated:

@richardshagrin

It doesn't have to work, or be good.

It's actually better from the politician's perspective if it doesn't work.

If it works, the problem is solved and you loose an issue for the next election.

If it doesn't work you can always campaign on "We need to do more.". This is why no matter how hard you try to constrain it, government always grows like a snowball rolling down the side of a mountain.

Politics is the art of looking like you are trying to solve problems while not solving anything.

Replies:   richardshagrin
richardshagrin 🚫

@Dominions Son

Politics

I haven't used this in a while, so lets drop it in.
Politics is a compound word from the Greek, poly meaning many and ticks, blood sucking insects.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son 🚫

@richardshagrin

Politics is a compound word from the Greek, poly meaning many and ticks, blood sucking insects.

An old favorite. :)

Dominions Son 🚫

@Remus2

Damned if I understand the logic (or lack thereof) they used even now.

Well there's your problem. No logic, it's all feels.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Dominions Son

Well there's your problem. No logic, it's all feels.

Probably correct in that.

palamedes 🚫

If the Yellowstone Caldera or any super volcano erupted the whole earth is screwed. Just look to 1816 the year with no summer caused by the massive April 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Dutch East Indies (known today as Indonesia). It put enough ash into the air long enough to block solar radiation needed to warm the soil and if soil temp doesn't get to around 40F (4.5c) crops will not germinate or grow. Hehe thats why if you ever see a farmer digging little holes in the fields at spring time we are looking for what the soil is like (depending on your crops and location) 2-4 inches {5-10cm} below the surface.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@palamedes

If the Yellowstone Caldera or any super volcano erupted the whole earth is screwed.

An eruption doesn't guarantee the destruction. The potential is there yes, the probability is higher for smaller eruptions that relieve pressure.

Replies:   Mushroom  StarFleet Carl
Mushroom 🚫

@Remus2

An eruption doesn't guarantee the destruction. The potential is there yes, the probability is higher for smaller eruptions that relieve pressure.

But that is only half of a super-volcano event.

In general, there are 2 phases. First is the eruption phase, which can be a single large event or many small events. But the real problem is at the end, when the magma chamber empties and the caldera collapses. That event can be as devastating as an eruption all by itself.

This generally boils down to the silica in the magma. More silica, greater chance for catastrophic eruption. Low silica, little chance. This is why in Hawaii (low silica) the volcano just bubbles away. But Yellowstone is smack dab in the middle of a high silica area, so almost all eruptions are explosive.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@Mushroom

All that is understood, as I stated, "the potential is there." Potential requires other factors to be realized, some of which you stated.

StarFleet Carl 🚫

@Remus2

An eruption doesn't guarantee the destruction. The potential is there yes, the probability is higher for smaller eruptions that relieve pressure.

The problem being that, based upon historical studies, the darned thing doesn't do small stuff, only really big stuff. Last time it covered everything is several FEET of ash, about all the way east to the Mississippi river, and south of where Dallas is now.

And as was mentioned, the silica particles would cause incredible issues. As in, slicing the crap out of the insides of anyone's lungs who ended up breathing it in.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 🚫

@StarFleet Carl

The problem being that, based upon historical studies, the darned thing doesn't do small stuff, only really big stuff.

I'm not sure what you were reading, but that statement simply isn't true.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/summary-eruption-history
There are three known major blast in the last 2.1 million years. Those blast are of the major ash and destruction variety, though one of them would have only affected the continent locally.

The two most recent eruptions known were of the pressure relieving lava flow variety. From the linked source;

The most recent eruptions were thick lava flows.

Large volume rhyolitic lava flows (approximately 600 km3 (144 mi3) were erupted in the caldera between 180,000 and 70,000 years ago, distributed primarily along two north-south alignments of vents.

Not_a_ID 🚫
Updated:

Which isn't to mention Craters of the Moon National Monument is suspected of being connected to that hotspot in some way as well, which means there are other possible outlets in play as well.

Replies:   Remus2  Mushroom
Remus2 🚫

@Not_a_ID

http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/craters-moon
Oregon State tracks that. At one point in time it was definitely connected, it's not for certain if it still is.

Mushroom 🚫

@Not_a_ID

Which isn't to mention Craters of the Moon National Monument is suspected of being connected to that hotspot in some way as well, which means there are other possible outlets in play as well.

Oh, it is. Remember, that hot spot first appeared that we know of on the surface at the Idaho-Oregon-Nevada border region. And it then "moved" East, basically creating the entire Snake River plain.

In reality, it is actually stationary, it is a plume deep in the mantle. What is really moving is the continental plate. The plate is moving West, which appears to make the hot spot move East. Craters of the Moon, is where the caldera was from 4-6mya. I did a lot of fossil digging and rock hounding in the Bruneau-Jarbridge caldera (10-12mya), and even in the late 1970's they were recognizing it was a volcanic caldera, but had yet to make the connection to Yellowstone. Just at that time they were starting to recognize Yellowstone as a caldera, but not yet what we understand today.

If you start at Yellowstone and move West and slightly down, you find the remnants of caldera after caldera, all the way back to the McDermitt Caldera some 15-16mya. And some are trying to trace it back even further, looking at calderas in the 20-25mya range that reside East and South of McDermitt.

The problem starts to become before that is there are unrelated basalt flows that obscure any evidence, and the rise of the Cascade mountains. McDermitt is likely the oldest that we know for sure.

Replies:   Dominions Son  Not_a_ID
Dominions Son 🚫

@Mushroom

In reality, it is actually stationary

Nothing on Earth is stationary. The planet rotates, and it orbits the Sun.

Not_a_ID 🚫

@Mushroom

If you start at Yellowstone and move West and slightly down, you find the remnants of caldera after caldera, all the way back to the McDermitt Caldera some 15-16mya. And some are trying to trace it back even further, looking at calderas in the 20-25mya range that reside East and South of McDermitt.

The problem starts to become before that is there are unrelated basalt flows that obscure any evidence, and the rise of the Cascade mountains. McDermitt is likely the oldest that we know for sure.

You might find this segment of this lecture from Central Washington University of interest, plate tectonics as it relates to the North American Plate, and what is sometimes referred to as the Western Idaho Shear Zone(WISZ) makes for some weirdness. He is speaking about Supervolcanos in this case, so the WISZ doesn't get as much attention but:

https://youtu.be/NcreTTI9Rew?t=1608

The thing they've discovered is that the WISZ seems roughly approximate where "the rules change" on tectonic movement.

The North American plate may be moving south-west, as Yellowstone reflects. But parts of Washington, Oregon, California and Northern Nevada are seemingly rotating clockwise around a point near Pendleton, Oregon... At least until it runs up against parts of the North American plate near the US/Canada border which causes it to start bunching up.... And that's how Eastern Washington has East-West ridge lines while much of the rest of the intermountain west has ridges running north/south with the exception of the Snake River Plain, which was largely flattened by Yellowstone's movement across the plate.

In other words, from what they're observing with real time measurements, is that Seattle, Olympia, and Portland are slowly moving north towards Vancouver, BC while Vancouver, BC is moving South-West with the rest of the "normal" North American plate.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom 🚫

@Not_a_ID

You might find this segment of this lecture from Central Washington University of interest, plate tectonics as it relates to the North American Plate, and what is sometimes referred to as the Western Idaho Shear Zone(WISZ) makes for some weirdness.

Oh yes, this has long been the cause for some rather strange geology in the "Gem State". Like the number of earthquakes over the decades centered around Challis, which should not have any earthquake producing faults. And thermal vents and springs seem to dot the state, once again without any obvious reason.

Growing up in that state, I experienced a great many of these oddities that almost defy explanation. Ancient earthquake faults in the middle of nowhere. A constant reoccurring break in a road caused by a slip fault a dozen or so miles from downtown Boise.

When I was in school, I used to make money collecting fossils and petrified wood (from a layer known as the "Bruneau Woodpile") and selling them to tourist and rock shops. And although I spent years looking for "lava bombs", I was never able to find one.

For anybody interested in collecting fossils from this layer, it is easy to get to and dig. Many sites visible from the road, and the fossils are in fairly loose tuff, so only a hammer and chisel are needed to extract them.

https://www.idahomuseum.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/5.18.13-Road-Log-Lake-Idaho-Fossils.pdf

richardshagrin 🚫

Mount St Helen erupted and there was a lot of ash. There were cars that stopped running because ash choked their filters.

"How much ash was there from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens?
During the 9 hours of vigorous eruptive activity on May 18, 1980, about 540 million tons of ash from Mount St. Helens fell over an area of more than 22,000 square miles (57,000 square kilometers). The total volume of the ash before its compaction by rainfall was about 0.3 cubic mile (1.3 cubic kilometers), equivalent to an area the size of a football field piled about 150 miles (240 kilometers) high with fluffy ash.

Ash and Tephra Fall Hazards at Mount St. Helens

Mount St. Helens produces small to large explosive eruptions, which send varying quantities of ash and tephra into the atmosphere. The May 18, 1980 tephra plume lasted for about eight hours and the plume top ranged from 14–18 km (8.5–11 mi) high. Ash fallout caused major problems in communities up to 600 km (370 mi) away.

The major hazards associated with eruption of tephra result from suspension of the abrasive, fine particles in the air and water, burial of transportation routes and vegetation, and loading on roofs or other structures. Volcanic ash may pose hazards hundreds of kilometers downwind from source, directly after accumulating at the surface and later, when particles are remobilized by wind or passing vehicles. Airborne ash causes eye and respiratory irritation, damages unprotected machinery (especially internal–combustion engines), and often causes short circuits in electric–power transmission and distribution lines. It also endangers aircraft, which may completely lose engine power if they fly through ash clouds. Ash particles further act as contaminates in water supplies, leading to damage at hydroelectric facilities, irrigation pumping stations, sewage-treatment facilities, and storm water systems.

Ballistic Projectiles
Volcanic explosions can propel rock fragments on ballistic trajectories that may differ from the wind direction. These events may occur without warning and in the absence of a larger magmatic eruption. A blast related to the emplacement of the Sugarbowl dome on the north flank of Mount St. Helens about 1,200 years ago propelled ballistic fragments as large as 5 cm (2 in) as far as 10 km (6 mi) from the vent. More typically, ballistic projectiles are limited to within about 5 km (3 mi) of vents.

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