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Bus Schedules in 1973

JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

There was a really interesting thread in this forum not long back on train schedules. Amazing resources were suggested. I've got two 17-year-old-girls that I need to get from the Maryland suburbs of DC to Huntsville, AL in the summer of 1973. I'm thinking about having them take a bus (without telling their parents) from DC to Huntsville. Possible? Today, that trip would be in the range of 25-33 hours. Is there a way to find out for then?

I've been astounded at what this group can come up with, so I hope y'all will take a shot at this!

Reluctant_Sir ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@JoeBobMack

Don't know about trains, but Greyhound is a good bet, they still make that same trip today, as you already said.

Just as a side thought, any objections to them hitchhiking? Very popular way to travel at that time and surprisingly safe with some common sense applied. At that age, it would have been an attractive option.

Replies:   JoeBobMack  DBActive
JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@Reluctant_Sir

They are daughters of a former CIA agent, smart, athletic, and happy with their family (except for the curves that magic has just thrown at their father). So, I'm really thinking outright hitching wouldn't fit their background and personalities. The other possibility I considered is having them get a ride from a ride board at a DC college or university.

Replies:   markselias11
markselias11 ๐Ÿšซ

@JoeBobMack

Trains are another option. They could get a train to Birmingham or Tuscaloosa and then a bus to Huntsville

Replies:   JoeBobMack
JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@markselias11

Yup. My bias here - I remember buses, but small southern towns didn't have much contact with trains! So, my thoughts don't run that way. I do however, remember a friend saying, "If you see a bus station, that's not a part of town you want to hang around." So, I can imagine some scared parents.

DBActive ๐Ÿšซ

@Reluctant_Sir

Standing on the street hitching a ride? Not two 17 year old girls at that time - police wouldn't let them. This is from a guy who hitched across the country and back in 1970.
What they might do is go to a likely location and start looking for rides. That's usually how we did it and we were two 19 year olds. Highway rest stops and restaurants on major highways, college campuses, community centers, hostels - anyplace where young (under 30) people congregated. You could usually get a ride fairly quickly that way.

Aiden Clover ๐Ÿšซ

You've got 2 things working for you. First of all for a fiction book you don't have to be ENTIRELY historically accurate. So if you want them to take a bus fro
DC to Huntsville then by all means do it. It's not that big of a stretch.

The other thing you have working is if you go by bus then you can pretty much get to any major city in any state. Buses were fairly common in that time frame so yes you'd be able to do it though I would t ha e a clue as to what sort of price you'd be looking at.

Replies:   JoeBobMack
JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@Aiden Clover

Yeah, I thought about something like:

Cap bought the tickets even while her more cautious twin was still deliberating. "Thrity hours and we're there!" she told her 'baby' sister. Miki still wasn't sure, but, it looked like they were doing this. And she did want to understand what was going on with Dad. So, she sighed, grabbed her backpack, and followed her bouncing twin toward the waiting conveyance.

bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@JoeBobMack

Given the University of Alabama is there, I'm pretty sure there'd be pretty decent bus service. Direct from DC? Maybe, maybe not. Probably they'd have to stop in Birmingham and change buses.

Replies:   markselias11  JoeBobMack
markselias11 ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

Probably they'd have to stop in Birmingham and change buses.

This is probably true. And the fact that it's 1973 means they'd likely not face the same scrutiny that a 17 year old would in today's time.

Replies:   bk69  JoeBobMack
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@markselias11

And the fact that it's 1973 means they'd likely not face the same scrutiny that a 17 year old would in today's time.

True. But Alabama didn't have great experiences with Yankee kids traveling down there back then. I'm not sure if there wouldn't still be serious grudges in '73...

markselias11 ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

I'm not sure if there wouldn't still be serious grudges in '

That's entirely possible. I was just referring to the idea of "you're not 18 so you need a parent" type scrutiny. They'd have an easier time saying "my parents are sending me down here" and not having questions asked.

JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

In some times and places, yeah, but, generally, I'm betting tall, blonde, pretty, and athletic twins would have been welcome in lots of places! (Especially if they weren't being overtly political.) That's a good thought, however. I've got some other damnyankees running around in a small town in Alabama with weird stuff going on. Maybe...

DBActive ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

There would not have been any problem whatsoever from grudges.

JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@markselias11

That's kind of what I was thinking. I can't claim that many wild adventures back then, but I can imagine walking up with cash and getting a ticket, no questions asked.

JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

I did find some route maps from the mid-70s. I think they could go through Virgina, Kinsport and Nashville, then south to Huntsville. Again, probably won't be critical to the story Unless I end up having one or the other parent intercept them on the way! I don't think that's the way it will go, however. I want them arriving tired but triumphant - after giving their parent quite a scare!

Replies:   Switch Blayde  bk69  DBActive
Switch Blayde ๐Ÿšซ

@JoeBobMack

I did find some route maps from the mid-70s. I think they could go through Virgina, Kinsport and Nashville, then south to Huntsville.

Do you need that much detail? Is the trip important or only that they get there?

Replies:   JoeBobMack
JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@Switch Blayde

Good point, SB. I'm thinking the trip isn't that important, although, the comments here have made me think. Won't need all the details about which bus, where they stopped, etc., but, maybe who they meet on the bus?? Someone also headed for their destination? Possibilities... (Obviously, I'm just plotting this book out. It's the 4th in the series.)

bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@JoeBobMack

Yeah. I would've initially guessed they'd go through Tennessee, but wasn't sure if they'd find it as easy to go direct to the University as they could from Birmingham.

As to the other: if their father was CIA, they probably would've learned to pick up regional accents quickly. If they sounded like southerners, and dressed to fit in as students, they could probably avoid trouble. Unless they somehow gave away the fact they were from the north...

DBActive ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@JoeBobMack

It probably would have been easier (not shorter) to go to Atlanta and then to Huntsville. The train would take them to Birmingham and then a bus to Huntsville.

Replies:   JoeBobMack
JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@DBActive

Interesting. I just had no experience with trains back then!

Replies:   irvmull
irvmull ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@JoeBobMack

The Southern Railway ran a "Birmingham Special" from DC up until 1970, which continued to run as an unnamed service until shortly before AMTRAK took over. I took one of the last Southern Crescent runs from Atl to DC a couple days before the turnover in Feb. 1979.

The trains were well worn*, lots of paint missing in places where people rubbed against things, but everything was clean, and the food and service were first class. They were serious about good food.

*Southern RR, knowing they were going to turn everything over to AMTRAK, wasn't big on repainting or modernizing stuff.

Apropos to your story, the chairman of the board and I spent a good portion of the trip (it was overnight) in the bar car, where there were a lot of young people playing guitars, poker, and just generally having a good time.

Odds are, anyone in their right mind would have taken a train in preference to a bus. Greyhound and Trailways were already bad in the 1960's. By the 1970's, they were awful. Winding roads, diesel fumes, overflowing toilets and criminals on the run don't make for an enjoyable trip.

Replies:   JoeBobMack
JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@irvmull

Interesting anecdote! That would be fun to work into a story.

pcbondsman ๐Ÿšซ

@JoeBobMack

Consider two things, first Birmingham is many miles out of the way from DC to Huntsville (approximately 273 miles). DC-Nashville would be shorter.

DC-Birmingham-Huntsville 1049 mi
DC-Nashville-Huntsville 776 mi.

Also note that Huntsville has/had considerable NASA activity there, that could/would affect availability of transportation. (Granted, likely more affect on air travel than bus or train.)

Above cited mileage based on current info/routes, not 1973.

Replies:   JoeBobMack
JoeBobMack ๐Ÿšซ

@pcbondsman

Thanks!

Uther_Pendragon ๐Ÿšซ

@JoeBobMack

You didn't travel by buses directly. You'd go into Washington. Then, you'd get a bus to somewhere else big maybe Birmingham, but more likely Atlanta. Then Birmingham, then Huntsville.

You could get from almost anywhere to almost anywhere on a bus in those days, but not non-stop, and seldom on hte ssame bus;

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Uther_Pendragon

You didn't travel by buses directly. You'd go into Washington. Then, you'd get a bus to somewhere else big maybe Birmingham, but more likely Atlanta. Then Birmingham, then Huntsville.

Exactly.

Air, Rail, and Bus systems all used a hub system when moving people long distances. Those hubs simply varied, depending on the kind of travel being done.

In general, most of the surface ones can be seen by following the Interstate Freeway system today. In both Rail and Bus, most generally had long routes that followed the modern freeways North to South, East to West. And at the major cities would then have a "regional hub".

A trip might take 2-5 transfers, depending on how far removed it was from a hub. Most of these are obvious, Los Angeles, New York, Oakland, Birmingham. Los Angeles and Oakland in fact still have large regional bus hub buildings, resembling that of a small airport or large train station.

For Air, it largely settled on Atlanta and Chicago, but almost any airport is also a hub. I once messed with a friend who came to visit me in Alabama, and on the trip there had him layover in Dallas for an hour. Then on the return flight, put him in Cleveland for 6.

And as we were both fans of the John Candy movie "Delirious", you can imagine what he said he wanted to do once he called me when he got home.

Replies:   irvmull
irvmull ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

And that is another major problem that rail faces.

The hub system works just fine for things like subways, where you seldom have to wait more than a few minutes for your next ride.

A hub system doesn't work when there are only one or two trains each day. People aren't willing to sit around an airport or a train station for 12 or 24 hours waiting for a connection. Spending those hours in a hotel isn't a big improvement.

But the only way multiple daily trains can be financially feasible is if there are enough people to fill them up. That isn't happening any time soon, unless cars, buses, and airplanes are all outlawed.

Replies:   Keet  Mushroom
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@irvmull

The hub system works just fine for things like subways, where you seldom have to wait more than a few minutes for your next ride.

That's exactly how trains work here in the Netherlands. You could say we have a heavily used above ground subway system using trains. Of course we're a small and flat country without mountains or even high hills.
For who is interested: search for "Dutch railroads" or "Dutch railway stations", there are several Wikipedia pages and thousands of pictures.

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@irvmull

The hub system works just fine for things like subways, where you seldom have to wait more than a few minutes for your next ride.

No, because that is not how the system would work.

This is not rocket science. In the US the rail network really only runs 4 main lines. 2 going North-South (East and West coasts), and 2 going East-West (North and South). Even in the peak, nobody took the rail from door to door.

They would take a bus or other way to the train terminal, then use that for the long distance trip. So to go from LA to NY, you only need to do a single transfer, either from Seattle, or Florida. So you only need to coordinate trains to meet at 4 different transfer points.

And depending on where you are going by plane, the same things can happen. I have had layovers many times of 12 hours, especially if my destination was from a smaller terminal. And I have lived near a terminal where there was only a single flight a day, that only went to a single location (we jokingly called the commuter airline that flew it TWA for "Teenie Weenie Airline").

But in 1973, there were more trains still operating, so the hub system worked even better. In the heyday it was no different than the hub systems of aircraft.

And I have seen such a hub with aircraft in operation myself in the past. When we flew home for R&R, our first stop was Kuwait. All flights from the ME went there. Then we got into one of either 2 aircraft, Atlanta or Houston which took us back to the states. Flights left Kuwait once a day.

Returns were the same way, Atlanta or Houston to Kuwait. Flights once a day. The only delay in that entire operation would be the return from Kuwait to wherever you were based at. Then you were the equivalent of being dropped off 200 miles from your home in an area with no trains at all, and relied on whatever happened to be flying to your base from Kuwait.

Myself, I flew in a C-130 on my final leg back. But I also knew people that flew C-5, C-17. One lucky SOB even flew on a C-32. There are 4 of them, commonly known as "Air Force 2", as it is a custom modified 757 primarily used for transporting the VP. On that case it was taking a delegation of Congress to our base, and as they had room they also brought several others with them.

It does not matter how many vehicles a day arrive, or how often. You can still schedule them to minimize layovers. I have seen a city bus system that did that easily, even though the busses ran routes that ran from 15 minute to 2 hour loops. They just all met in the same area downtown every 30 minutes. Best city bus system I ever saw. Never took more than 2 busses to go anywhere, and never a walk of more than a block to catch the next bus, which arrived at the same time you did.

And just peeking, even 40 years later that city still does it the same way, all busses meeting in a central location. A huge difference from any other bus system I ever rode, which might require 4-7 busses to get from one place to another.

I still remember the bus route I took for 4 months before I got my first motorcycle to get from my base to my dad's house. Orange County from the base to downtown Long Beach. Then a Long Beach bus to LAX. An LA bus from LAX to downtown, then another bus from downtown to his house.

4 busses, across 3 transit companies, to go about 60 miles. Took about 5-6 hours each way. I could have cut off about an hour of that (I did once), but that meant adding in yet another transit company on the leg from LAX and going to Hollywood to take an LA bus. But that company was expensive ($5 in 1984 - and no interagency transfer), so I never did it again.

You are only talking about logistics, and that is easily solved.

elevated_subways ๐Ÿšซ

Greyhound had a very comprehensive service throughout the United States in the 1970s. I used to have their national map from 1975 and everything was connected, although sometimes through other connecting companies. I'm less sure about Trailways, although they were pretty big too.

The service was not the rolling slums as described by a poster above, but longer trips (more than twelve hours?) could get tiresome. The biggest problem was food stops. If it was at a "regular" restaurant, that would be okay. If it was at one of Greyhound's own Post House facilities, then the food could be pretty bad.

Greyhound still exists, but it has lost ground to companies like Megabus which offer more non-stop services.

Amtrak was severely cut back at its creation in 1971, and it has shrunk even more since then. I don't think Huntsville was ever on their network. It is still possible to take a train from Washington to Birmingham. However, with the loss of ridership because of the the pandemic, most long-distance services now only operate three times per week in each direction.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@elevated_subways

Amtrak was severely cut back at its creation in 1971, and it has shrunk even more since then.

Passenger rails service in the US peaked in the 1920s. It had already started to decline in the 1930s. And while it saw a brief resurgence from WWII, it was already back in to it's slow decline by the late 1940s.

Replies:   irvmull
irvmull ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

The freedom to buy a car and travel when and where you want (after a depression and a war had made those things difficult or impossible) was something few people could resist.

The new interstate highway system sealed the deal. Not only was it possible, but independent travel was cheap, easy, and relatively safe.

The extensive rail service at that time provided little benefit for someone who could afford a car, and the severely curtailed present-day service offers even fewer benefits.

For the majority of Americans who don't happen to live in one of the 4 or 5 largest cities in the country, rail is pretty much an expensive joke they have to pay for but can't use.

I enjoy riding trains, but I can't expect taxpayers to pay for my vacation trips. Some people, of course, do expect "someone else" to pay for anything they want.

elevated_subways ๐Ÿšซ

There was some expectation (by Anthony Haswell and other rail advocates) that Amtrak might keep most of the 1971-vintage trains going. To their surprise, about half of them were cut. The amount of money it would have cost to keep them running would have been very significant indeed. The present smaller system chews through money at a rapid clip, and it's gotten worse with the pandemic. Plus there is the whole issue of replacing the rolling stock. I think the average age of the present fleet is actually higher than the one in 1971.

irvmull ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

As a side note: a friend tells me that Mexican buses are more comfortable and have better food service than US airlines.

Better in all ways, except for the occasional roadside bandits.

Replies:   bk69  joyR  Remus2
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@irvmull

I can believe the better food.
As to more comfortable, I'd wager the seats are better, but depending on how crowded the bus is, that might make the comfort level go down.

And, of course, the narcotraficantes stopping the bus from time to time would also make the comfort level go down.

joyR ๐Ÿšซ

@irvmull

Better in all ways, except for the occasional roadside bandits.

It is a little unfair to claim that US airlines don't suffer from roadside bandits unless another airline does suffer from them...

:)

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@irvmull

As a side note: a friend tells me that Mexican buses are more comfortable and have better food service than US airlines.

Better in all ways, except for the occasional roadside bandits.



That's both right and wrong depending on the bus in question. The larger Mexican interstate buses are as you say mostly. The smaller local/regional chicken buses, not so much.
It's very rare for the larger buses to suffer bandit attacks. It verges on being a semi-regular occurrence on the chicken buses. The Mexican military and federal police often guard the larger versions. On the smaller ones, sometimes it's the guard that is the bandit.

The same plays out in several central and south American bus services. Peru has particularly nice buses, but limit their routes. Columbia has some nice buses, but nowhere near as safe regardless. Venezuela goes back before my earliest visit as being far less safe than Columbia. For them, it's the police stopping the bus for retirement collections.

irvmull ๐Ÿšซ

"You are only talking about logistics, and that is easily solved."

If you throw enough money at the problem, yes.
Just run the trains every hour or two, whether they are full or empty.

Trains cost money to buy and to run. Empty trains without paying passengers cost even more.

That being said, I'll defer to your superior knowledge on the subject, since I only worked for one of the largest mass transit systems in the US for 8 years. While you rode one a couple of times.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@irvmull

"You are only talking about logistics, and that is easily solved."

If you throw enough money at the problem, yes.
Just run the trains every hour or two, whether they are full or empty.

What are you talking about?

Long distance trains (as opposed to commuter trains) on average depart the end terminals every 2-3 days. It is simple math, takes 3 days to make one transit end to end, so on that day the train running in the other direction meets at the terminal also.

Simple math.

I just looked, LA to Florida is 3 days. Boston to Florida is 1 day. You just make sure that whenever the LA train arrives in Florida, there is a train going to Boston waiting for it. That serves all passengers no matter if they are continuing North or West.

Seattle to New York is also 3 days. The same train that runs to Boston runs through New York. Once again, same thing.

LA to Seattle, that is a day and a half. That is really the only place where with proper scheduling you will have waits of around 12 hours or more. Between the E-W and N-S trains departing LA or Seattle.

See, no "trains every hour or two" at all needed. Simply know how long it takes to make a transit, and make sure the train moving in the other direction arrives at around the same time.

You worked for a mass transit system, great. I worked as an actual dispatcher and scheduler in the military. Were you involved in the actual logistical aspect of arranging and coordinating multiple forms of transportation, so that any delays at each change point was minimized?

I was.

Of course, the cog in our wheel that was often frustrating was simply how MAC operates. Set up a time table, but as somebody is waiting for a flight to our base another is about to depart that is going to our base via another. MAC will put them on the first departing flight with room, even if it is not a direct one. So because there is room and it goes to our location eventually, they are put onto that one rather than the one arriving in 4 hours and flies direct to our base.

Once stranding 2 of our people in Kandahar for over 2 weeks. The flight landed there, and was retasked to an emergency medivac and our people kicked off.

You talk about a mass transit system, great. Which you should imagine is very different than a continental or intercontinental transit system. Try scheduling regular flights between 3 continents on a regular basis.

And occasionally between 3 other continents as well. The only continent I never had to schedule or arrange flights to was Antarctica.

Not many seemed to want to fly from the Middle East to Antarctica for their 2 week R&R, or need to go there for emergency leave.

But if you ever went to Atlanta or Houston from the early 2000's to early 2010's, you would have seen huge amounts of military people arriving and departing daily. Every single non-unit flight to and from Afghanistan and the Middle East flew in and out of those two airports.

In fact, ask anybody that made those flights, all had a layover in Leipzig, in what was once East Germany. I remember joking with my Sergeant Major during one layover (he was the only one close to my age). That if we had landed there when we had first joined the military, we would have been shot. As it was in the early 1980's a major Soviet Air Force base for MiG-29 fighters.

You seem to be stuck thinking local scale, where departures and arrivals are an hour or two at most. Try scaling up to where departures and arrivals are days apart.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

What are you talking about?

Long distance trains (as opposed to commuter trains) on average depart the end terminals every 2-3 days. It is simple math, takes 3 days to make one transit end to end, so on that day the train running in the other direction meets at the terminal also.

It doesn't matter how long it takes any one train to go from end to end. There's no technical reason why you can't have multiple trains in transit at the same time.

Given a double track run, the only real limits on the number of trains in transit at any one time are lack of passengers and contention with freight traffic.

Given:
Double track
No freight on the same line.
Enough passengers to support that many trains.

There is no reason you couldn't run trains hourly (or at almost* any other arbitrary interval) even if any one train takes 6 days for a round trip.

*There would be a limit on frequency based on how long it takes to disembark and embark passengers at each end.

Replies:   bk69  Mushroom  Keet
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

Given the point was that getting enough passengers to merit offering the service was part of the problem, (and having departures every twelve hours would likely lead to increased travel time as there'd be more competition with freight traffic given the increased passenger service) and that the 'throw money at the problem and send empty trains every hour' was the straw man argument that had been offered up, you kinda missed the point.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

Go back and look at the post from Mushroom at 2/26/2021, 11:35:06 AM.

Mushroom is the one that introduced the idea that it's just a matter of logistics.

You and Mushroom are the ones missing the point.

"throw money at the problem and send empty trains every hour" wasn't a straw man. irvmull's point was that sure, from a raw technology standpoint it could be done, but doing it with trains will never be economical, and the economics is the only reason it isn't/can't be done.

Replies:   bk69
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

Mushroom's point, I believe, was that avoiding layovers is relatively simple by properly scheduling departures, without requiring huge numbers of routes.

Replies:   Dominions Son  Mushroom
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

I believe, was that avoiding layovers is relatively simple by properly scheduling departures, without requiring huge numbers of routes.

But that's backwards. The claim was never that avoiding layovers requires lots of routes, it was that avoiding layovers requires lots of trains on each route.

What requires lots of routes is that you have lots of people starting from lots of different places and wanting to go to lots of different places.

Sure, scheduling trains to avoid layovers is simple, if your entire system consists of only three stations, no one ever starts from the middle station, and you ignore whether or not your departure times are convenient for your potential passenger base.

Replies:   bk69  Mushroom
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

A departure every twelve or thirtysix hours, however, seems to work for the hubs of the system. At stations along the route, yes the time is rather fixed. That would always be a problem for anything but express routes.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

A departure every twelve or thirtysix hours, however, seems to work for the hubs of the system.

Not if the goal is to avoid layovers for people who need to transfer trains.

The hubs are hubs because they are being fed into by many spokes, it's not just the lines from one hub to another than matter.

Consider a three hub system, something a little more realistic than what Mushroom laid out, say LA, St Louis and NY.

People needing to transfer trains at the St Louis hub aren't just coming from LA or New York. They are coming from Chicago, Minneapolis, Houston, and New Orleans as well.

You can't just match up one arrival from LA with one departure for New York (or the reverse).

People coming into St Louis from LA could be going to New York, but they could also be going to Houston, New Orleans or Chicago.

If the goal is preventing lengthy layovers, the scheduling problem is orders of magnitude more complex than Mushroom makes it out to be.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

Consider a three hub system, something a little more realistic than what Mushroom laid out, say LA, St Louis and NY.

Geography.

/facepalm

There are really only 3 main lines for rail leaving LA. First is the one that the passenger trains use going N-S. That is along the coast, generally following US 101.

The second is the one it takes from LA to Florida, following the old Santa Fe line. Pretty much follows I-10 all the way across the country.

Then there is the inland route, that more closely follows I-5. And guess what, passenger trains do not take that route.

Look up the Tehachapi Loop sometime.

But really, LA to St. Louis? Why?

If anything, that is the old Burlington Northern Seattle-Chicago route. Why in the hell would you run a train half way across the country, then have it turn and go North almost up to the Great Lakes?

The US passenger rail system is basically a giant circle. Why? Because almost nobody uses the thing anymore, and most alternate lines were cut years ago.

But LA to NY, that is simple, take your choice. Across to Florida and up, or up to Seattle and across.

You are going back to requiring multiple train changes, something that never really happened even in the height of train travel. Changing trains was to hop off the main lines and going local for transit to the destination. Not for actual cross-country transit.

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

But that's backwards. The claim was never that avoiding layovers requires lots of routes, it was that avoiding layovers requires lots of trains on each route.

Which is garbage. I already explained it, but let me try once again.

Transit time cross country is 3 days. Train leaves LA or Seattle on Monday, arrives in New York - Florida on Wednesday.

So you need to make sure that on Wednesday you have a train in Florida and New York going North-South. Do not need one at all on Tuesday, unless there is demand for one.

See, is not freaking rocket science. It does not matter if it is trains, planes, 18 wheel tractor trailers, or anything else. Is all scheduling and knowing what and where to have parts meet up.

Only idiots look and go "Well derp, I just run every hour-day, so that way I do not have to think and it is simple".


Sure, scheduling trains to avoid layovers is simple, if your entire system consists of only three stations, no one ever starts from the middle station, and you ignore whether or not your departure times are convenient for your potential passenger base.


/facepalm

Think about that real carefully. In the US there are really only 4 main lines. North-South Seattle to San Diego, and the same Boston to Florida. East-West is LA to Florida, and Seattle to Chicago (which connects to New York).

That's it, 4 main lines. You can throw 10,000 stations in the middle, layover is a stupid thing to even consider. Because unless it is LA, Seattle, Chicago, New York, or Florida there are going to be no other trains to meet.

Layover only applies at those 4 (5) main stations, and nowhere else. And here is the shocker, it has been that way since the first spike was laid in the Transcontinental Railroad.

Why people keep acting otherwise is really beyond me. It is basically like adding in the NY subway system because that is a train also.

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

Mushroom's point, I believe, was that avoiding layovers is relatively simple by properly scheduling departures, without requiring huge numbers of routes.

Exactly. This is what some just keep missing over and over again. You only need "daily trains" if you can not figure out transit times, so run one every day because you are too stupid to know that most times there will be no other train to meet.

Like most threads in here that go this way, I already gave up because people keep completely missing what I am actually saying, and going off onto their own tangent.

Replies:   richardshagrin
richardshagrin ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

tangent.


Tangent
Science Fiction
Shanghaied across the time dimensions, middle school student Judy Bondi, her classmates and an extraordinary man deal with a history they never learned in school. Instead of reading history, they're making it! A fanfic set in H. Beam Piper's Lord Kalvan of Otherwhen universe.

Tags: Fan Fiction, Science Fiction, Time Travel, DoOver
Sex Contents: No Sex
270,404 words
Posted: 11/5/2006, 9:08:25 PM Concluded: 6/10/2007, 7:24:15 PM / (Review) 1466 KB 130997 1631 9.19

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

It doesn't matter how long it takes any one train to go from end to end. There's no technical reason why you can't have multiple trains in transit at the same time.

That I am aware of, but it is not required as some insist. Do not need daily trains, unless there was demand for it. Some only seem to think scheduling can only be done on a daily basis.

Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

There is no reason you couldn't run trains hourly (or at almost* any other arbitrary interval) even if any one train takes 6 days for a round trip.

Most trains here in the Netherlands run on a 15 minute interval. Per hour 2 intercity trains that only stop at the big city's and 2 "stop-trains" that stop at every station along the route. So they don't even run at the same speed and it still works.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

Most trains here in the Netherlands run on a 15 minute interval.

You can run a heck of a train system if your entire nation is only the size of the DFW metro and the OKC metro combined, so that's all the area you have for infrastructure AND you have twice the population of those two areas in the US.

DFW is 9,300 sq mi, with 7.5 million people, OKC is 6,400 sq mi, with 1.3 million people, so call it 15,700 sq mi and 8.8 million.

Versus 16,100 square miles and 17.5 million people.

The Netherlands HAS to have effective mass transportation. Dallas has a cluster-fuck of roads, some of which are 16 lanes wide. Parts of I-40 going through OKC are 12 lanes wide.

Note that I'm not knocking The Netherlands in the least. I'm dealing with creating a double track maglev rail system for a story. The difference is, there's NO trains now, there's only highways or airports, and the destination city is Mecca in Saudi Arabia.

Replies:   Dominions Son  Keet
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

Parts of I-40 going through OKC are 12 lanes wide.

Each direction, or both combined?

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

Each direction, or both combined?

Combined. We're nowhere near what the Katy is ... twenty-six lanes wide of highway. Yes, I know there's a toll-booth in China that's fifty lanes wide, but the highway that it serves is only twenty lanes wide.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

Combined.

Well, at that, 8 is fairly standard for the Interstate Highway system.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

Well, at that, 8 is fairly standard for the Interstate Highway system.

In metro areas, yes, due to traffic congestion. Otherwise, the vast majority of the Interstate system is 4 lanes total, and there are no service roads.

That's my point - The Netherlands AS A NATION is basically two large metro areas in the United States with twice the population - and that's IT. They have no place to expand, so they HAVE to do things differently - and they've ALWAYS been that size, ever since they became a country.

Dallas used to be it's own city, Fort Worth was separate, so was Arlington. That's why the house that Jimmy built used to be in the middle of nowhere, and ... now, it's not.

We're having a lot of fun locally right now because they're working to expand from three to four lanes each way on I-40 between Tinker AFB and the I-35/I-40 junction.

Replies:   madnige  bk69  Radagast
madnige ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

The Netherlands [have] ALWAYS been that size, ever since they became a country.


Almost any other country, maybe, but those Dutch are pretty good at increasing the size of their country

Replies:   Keet
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@madnige

Almost any other country, maybe, but those Dutch are pretty good at increasing the size of their country

Yep, we're almost gods :D, not by turning water into wine but into land!

bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

they've ALWAYS been that size, ever since they became a country.

Actually, they're one of the few countries that have peacefully increased in size. In their case, mostly through draining the ocean off of land.

Radagast ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

I'm sure Earnest can remember when Australia had less population than that and its an entire continent.

Replies:   Keet  Ernest Bywater
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@Radagast

I'm sure Earnest can remember when Australia had less population than that and its an entire continent.

Ernest isn't THAT old :D

Replies:   bk69
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

Ernest isn't THAT old :D

How sure of that are you?

Replies:   Keet
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

How sure of that are you?

http://bywater.net.au/pages/ernmain.htm

Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Radagast

Not exactly how I got brought into this conversation, or how it relates to me. However, I was born in 1954 and I can remember when what they now call the Sydney metropolitan area was 5 distinct cities with farmlands between the different cities. I also remember playing in the mangrove swamp they later filled in and built the venues for the Olympic Games on. Hell, I'm even old enough to renumber when the bus services in my area ran frequently, on time, and at a profit - then the government passed laws to take control of them and none of those adjectives applied to the bus services the next year. The suburb I grew up in was part of the Western Suburbs as I grew up, and now they call it an inner city suburb despite being 7 miles from the Sydney CBD - sheesh.

Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

The Netherlands HAS to have effective mass transportation. Dallas has a cluster-fuck of roads, some of which are 16 lanes wide. Parts of I-40 going through OKC are 12 lanes wide.

Yep, our geographical numbers are quite different from the US, although we also have a very extensive road network, one of the densest and best maintained in the world. On the other hand I think the most lanes we have anywhere is 5, maybe 6 by now, I rarely drive distances any more.
Creating a double track maglev system for a story shouldn't be too difficult if you do your research on the (elevation) limitations maglev has so you can plan a believable route. For a story, economical feasibility can always be resolved with other circumstances preventing alternatives like large no-fly zones, regular high altitude bad weather along the route, etc.
Maybe not for a maglev, but another interesting option with trains besides sleeping cabins is an option to take your car along. This can be done in Europe although it's not something that is used much because of the costs. This would resolve transportation between hubs and to the final destination of the passengers.

Replies:   Remus2  StarFleet Carl
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Keet

Maybe not for a maglev, but another interesting option with trains besides sleeping cabins is an option to take your car along. This can be done in Europe although it's not something that is used much because of the costs. This would resolve transportation between hubs and to the final destination of the passengers.

Siemens, ABB, and others dabble in modeling that from time to time. I've seen some very interesting models that incorporates train travel with local hub to your final destination. One of the more interesting projects was nested drones in a train car that would fly people to their final destination then return to a drop point waiting for pickup.

Replies:   Keet
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

One of the more interesting projects was nested drones in a train car that would fly people to their final destination then return to a drop point waiting for pickup.

Interesting concept but unfortunately something some years into the future. Here in the Netherlands we have bus stations next to most train stations for the next step of the journey, and of course most of our train stations are inside the city, often in the center, so pickup/drop off by someone with a car is quite common. Some even park their car next to the station to continue travel by train. Most train stations here also have large bicycle parkings so you have your own transport from and to the station. Very well used by many students.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

Interesting concept but unfortunately something some years into the future.


Probably true, if ever. The technology for it is already here, albeit extremely expensive.

Every medium and major corporation on the planet that I'm aware of has a research arm to lesser and greater degrees. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Ford, ABB, ad nauseam have concept teams doing nothing but dreaming up things they can patent or otherwise prevent others from controlling.

While it's illegal most places, many of them have people in the various patent or similar offices around the world feeding them information as well. In that manner, they try to get the jump on their competition. Sometimes just to gain control and bury the idea.

Sometimes it's the government's themselves that go out of their way to protect internal industries. Take the V.W. BlueMotion as an example. Every bureaucratic roadblock available put the kibosh on importing them to North America. When the bullshit is washed away, the reason turned out to be it gets too good of fuel mileage. The 1.6 TDI BlueMotion holds the world record for the longest drive on a single tank (something like 75 mpg). You'd think that a good thing, but the environment takes it in the shorts when it threatens tax revenues.

The point of all that is, there will be no change if the government and corporations can't get their slice of the pie. That includes a multitude of technologies that are currently buried.

Replies:   Keet  Mushroom
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

The point of all that is, there will be no change if the government and corporations can't get their slice of the pie. That includes a multitude of technologies that are currently buried.

I really would like to take a look at what the oil companies have buried in their vaults to protect their business from becoming useless.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Keet

Do some research into how much money world governments receive from the oil and gas industry. Then look at the carbon taxes.

https://taxfoundation.org/gas-taxes-europe-2019/

https://taxfoundation.org/carbon-taxes-in-europe-2019/

That btw is the only reason the BlueMotion is allowed in Europe. As I said, it's corporations and governments.

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Remus2


Take the V.W. BlueMotion as an example. Every bureaucratic roadblock available put the kibosh on importing them to North America. When the bullshit is washed away, the reason turned out to be it gets too good of fuel mileage.

Typical CT nonsense.

The simple fact, is that nobody in the US wanted them. It literally is just an update to the classic Geo Metro, that was getting 50 miles per gallon decades ago on a carburetor. A tiny 2 door coupe, based on the Passat. With a three cylinder engine.

Even VW knew that these would not sell in the US. Nobody in the US wants to buy three cylinder 2 door coupes, no matter how good the gas mileage is. That is why their market was always Asia and Europe. Where big cars are less popular, and gas mileage more important.

You could develop a 2 door coupe with a 3 cylinder engine that would get 100 miles per gallon, and still nobody in the US will want the thing. Because ultimately, you still have an underpowered 2 door bucket with an engine smaller than that of a lot of motorcycles. One that just gets great gas mileage on flat terrain.

Replies:   Dominions Son  bk69  Remus2
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

@Remus2

Take the V.W. BlueMotion as an example. Every bureaucratic roadblock available put the kibosh on importing them to North America. When the bullshit is washed away, the reason turned out to be it gets too good of fuel mileage.


Typical CT nonsense.

While the bureaucratic roadblocks bit is most likely CT nonsense, the "When the bullshit is washed away, the reason turned out to be it gets too good of fuel mileage." isn't complete nonsense.

As you yourself noted, people in the US didn't want them because of what it took to achieve that kind of mileage.

Replies:   Mushroom  Remus2
Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

As you yourself noted, people in the US didn't want them because of what it took to achieve that kind of mileage.

They did not want them because in order to get that mileage, they had to make a tiny 2 door coupe with a tiny engine.

I myself have downed a Geo (actually a Chevy Sprint - the same car). And not even one of the 3 cylinder 50 mpg models, but the 4 cylinder 40 mpg ones. On flat terrain, it was awesome. But throw in any kind of hill, and it became a pig. Mileage all flew out the window, and it would struggle to crest a hill at 55 that my truck laughs at going 80. Towing a 1 ton camping trailer.

The era of just throwing out a cheap base car in the US ended 40 years ago. You can actually make cars fairly easily that get great mileage. It is no secret, the makers have known how for decades.

First, rip out all of the electronics that everybody has to have. Power windows, GPS and 6 cigarette lighters to power phones, tablets, and the like. Cut the size of the alternator, that alone gives you a few.

Then the AC, yank it out. Just by doing that one thing, mileage can increase 25%.

Stop making SUVs, go back to 2 door coupes like the classic Toyota or Datsun.

People today, they want all of their gadgets. I can't even remember the last time I saw a car that did not come with power windows, let alone all the other garbage put in them today. And it is the customers that demand that stuff, not the car makers.

40 years ago, the Yugo and Geo Metro proved that the consumer just did not want a "base car" anymore. And nobody makes them, because the consumer stopped buying them.

How many in here drive 2 door coupes that are not sports cars? Or basic 2 door standard cab trucks? Most do not even realize that the classic "Toyota Hilux" pickup died over 20 years ago. A major seller for over 3 decades, customers simply "wanting more" saw it die in 2000.

Replies:   Keet
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

Most do not even realize that the classic "Toyota Hilux" pickup died over 20 years ago.

I wish I could still buy that classic model, it was indestructible. When properly maintained it would last a life time.

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Dominions Son

In terms of performance, they are no different than any other small car. In terms of mileage, they hold the world record.

In Europe, they are readily available. Which puts the idea of them being environmentally unfriendly to lie. That because European Union environmental restrictions are much tighter than the US/North America.

The real difference between EU and US that makes that vehicle unavailable in North America is the difference in taxes. If the US taxed petrol as strongly as the EU, it would damn near cause a revolt if not actually cause one. The differences in taxes between the two is like the difference between the light of a full moon at midnight and the light of the sun at noon.

The EU gets the same amount of money the US does in taxes even though their volume is significantly less. Bottom line is, when, and only when, the tax base can be matched or exceeded, will technology that punches up to 75mpg or better be allowed to flourish in North America.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Remus2


. Which puts the idea of them being environmentally unfriendly to lie.

No one here has suggested/advocated that idea.

Bottom line is, when, and only when, the tax base can be matched or exceeded, will technology that punches up to 75mpg or better be allowed to flourish in North America.


Bullshit. It will flourish in North America when you can make that 75MPG vehicle without sacrificing power and performance to do it.

No one anywhere buys vehicles that make the sacrifices needed to achieve such high mileage if they have other choices.

The idea the the US government is actively blocking high mileage vehicles because they won't artificially and arbitrarily raise the price of gasoline to a point that it take other choices away from buyers is just backwards thinking.

bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

The Smart Fourtwo fit that basic description, yet the titanium frame and lightweight block coupled with a performance transmission translated into a highway-capable car really designed for the city (particularly since you could stop next to a seven foot long parking space, hop out, and lift the car by hand into the spot).

I don't know I'd want to drive one through the rockies, but that's not what they were meant for. Unfortunately, the model was discontinued and switched to battery only.

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

I don't know I'd want to drive one through the rockies, but that's not what they were meant for.

And outside of those urban dwellers, how many never need to do things like that in the US?

Not enough to keep a car model alive, that is for sure.

Everywhere that I have ever lived, I have had to many times a year at a minimum go over mountains. Sometimes it was daily, sometimes it was only a few times a year. And that was living in the city!

I lived for decades in LA. A city that is cut up by several mountains. Sure, driving around your home in LA or the San Fernando Valley, no problem. Want to go to the beach, or Six Flags? Well, mountain ranges between you and your destination.

My daily commute in my Geo from Palmdale to LAX saw me going over 2 each way every day.

It does not really matter what "people in the city" want, they are only important in their own mind. To me, I hear "city car", and I think "overpriced golfcart for yuppies with more money than sense".

And the Smart? Hell, it was a shrunk down Aztec as far as most people were concerned. Overpriced, and once again did not matter what the mileage was. Nobody in most of the country wanted one. I would not even want to take one over the Mulholland Pass, let alone the Rockies.

A great car for Europe or Asia, where a "long drive" of 2 hours takes you into another country. In the US, that might not even get you to the next city.

Even today, I laugh whenever I see one of my "tech shows" where the host is bragging about the trip he is about to take in his Tesla, or his other electric cars. Then his anger at how he could not get out of Houston lately because they had no power during the ice storms.

First World Problems, indeed.

Replies:   bk69
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom


And the Smart? Hell, it was a shrunk down Aztec as far as most people were concerned. Overpriced, and once again did not matter what the mileage was. Nobody in most of the country wanted one.

Oh, it had issues. However, for anyone living in Chicago and eastward, it wasn't bad... but the fact is that most people never realized because it looked like a joke. If I hadn't known a fairly big guy who owned one, I would've expected the inside to be the sardine can the thing looked like.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

However, for anyone living in Chicago and

Oh hell no. If it wasn't my only vehicle, maybe, but you couldn't pay me enough to even think about trying to drive one of those things in winter weather.

Replies:   bk69
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

True enough for a few months, but for most of the year it's a good choice. When there's a foot of snow on the ground, well... that's why a Silverado HD is good to have, even if people keep asking you to haul loads for them.

Replies:   DBActive
DBActive ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69


Oh hell no. If it wasn't my only vehicle, maybe, but you couldn't pay me enough to even think about trying to drive one of those things in winter weather.

True enough for a few months, but for most of the year it's a good choice. When there's a foot of snow on the ground, well... that's why a Silverado HD is good to have, even if people keep asking you to haul loads for them.


I live in NJ and I know of no one who would willingly drive a Smart car or any other of the super high mileage cars willingly. Maybe an 18 year old girl who thought it was cute.
I can look out of my office window and see the cars driving buy - at least 75% are SUVs. They're the only vehicles that give you enough room to do anything with your car except drive to and from work.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@DBActive

who would willingly drive a Smart car

There are a few eco-freaks out there that enjoy the four-wheeled motorcycles that are Smart Cars.

They mostly look good with the red and yellow paint job, though.

If it fits IN a pickup, it's not a real car.

Replies:   Mushroom  Keet
Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

There are a few eco-freaks out there that enjoy the four-wheeled motorcycles that are Smart Cars.

Hell, my last motorcycle had more power than those things did. At least it had a 1.5 liter 6 cylinder engine. But still weighed less than a third of a Smart.

I have long said that if "eco freaks" really believed their nonsense, they would all be driving motorcycles. Less materials to manufacture, less room needed for roads and parking, better mileage and less chemicals needed to operate.

Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

There are a few eco-freaks out there that enjoy the four-wheeled motorcycles that are Smart Cars.

That's not a car, that's a coffin. If that thing gets between 2 SUV's or trucks in an accident you wouldn't know it was there because you couldn't find it anymore.

Replies:   joyR  Ernest Bywater
joyR ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

That's not a car, that's a coffin. If that thing gets between 2 SUV's or trucks in an accident you wouldn't know it was there because you couldn't find it anymore.

Much like an SUV that gets between two semi's.

Replies:   Keet
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@joyR

Much like an SUV that gets between two semi's.

Not if it's a Volvo :D

Replies:   StarFleet Carl  joyR  Mushroom
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

Not if it's a Volvo :D

That'd have to be an older Volvo. The newer ones aren't built as strong as a Subaru is now.

And either way, there are some crashes that just plain aren't survivable.

Replies:   Keet
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

That'd have to be an older Volvo. The newer ones aren't built as strong as a Subaru is now.

And either way, there are some crashes that just plain aren't survivable.

I was kidding, of course an older Volvo. 'Lovingly' called a tank around here at the time: heavy, ugly, but no other car could cripple it. Same as the old Toyota Hilux, almost indestructible. Look up the Top Gear video where they try to destroy one so it won't drive anymore. Hilarious, but damn that car was tough.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

an older Volvo

Aren't they Chinese now? Geely? Are they still using Renault engines?

AJ

Replies:   Keet
Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@awnlee jawking

Aren't they Chinese now? Geely? Are they still using Renault engines?

Don't know, I'm not into cars that much. Last I read was that they intend to go exclusively electric by 2030.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

Last I read was that they intend to go exclusively electric by 2030.

On UK TV, Volvo is currently showing an ad for their plug-in hybrid and pretending it's good for the environment and 'the future'. Which, IMO, is bollocks. Hybrid cars have the start and end of life environmental costs of electric cars plus most of the environmental costs of combustion-engine cars. So they're actually worse for the environment.

AJ

joyR ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Keet


Not if it's a Volvo :D

The Volvo gets squashed, but the sidelights remain on... :)

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

Not if it's a Volvo

Volvo. They're boxy, but they're good.

Obscure movie reference for the day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTJZEK4JP0k

Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet


That's not a car, that's a coffin. If that thing gets between 2 SUV's or trucks in an accident you wouldn't know it was there because you couldn't find it anymore.

Actually, a lot will depend on how it hits the semi, as some of the smart cars are so low the driver can duck and slide under the back of the trailer with now harm to the driver of the smart car.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@Ernest Bywater

Actually, a lot will depend on how it hits the semi, as some of the smart cars are so low the driver can duck and slide under the back of the trailer with now harm to the driver of the smart car.

On the other hand, if a semi tractor runs over a smart car, would the semi driver even notice.

Replies:   bk69  Ernest Bywater
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

Yes. Because the car would serve as a ramp. Remember, titanium frame.

Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

On the other hand, if a semi tractor runs over a smart car, would the semi driver even notice.

yes, he'd think he hit some road debris, and would probably be right by the time he stops.

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

You could of course simply look up the history to verify what I stated. But as usual, you'd rather stir the crap and call nonsense. It is what it is, attacking it in this manner doesn't change it.

Feel free to carry on with your head in the sand.

Replies:   Dominions Son  Mushroom
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

How about you actually cite documentation of the claimed history of bureaucratic roadblocks. It's not our job to go out of our way to do research to prove your arguments.

And no, low gas taxes do not qualify as a bureaucratic roadblock to high gas mileage vehicles.

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

You could of course simply look up the history to verify what I stated. But as usual, you'd rather stir the crap and call nonsense. It is what it is, attacking it in this manner doesn't change it.

I can throw you 10 references that prove that the Earth is flat and that we never landed on the moon, does not mean that is true.

The simple fact is, this is nothing really amazing. What was the last 2 door coupe that was popular with the average consumer? Simple question, what was it?

And before that, the last 2 door that had an engine that was under 1.3 liters and had a 3 cylinder engine?

But please, if you think that the "government" or others were trying to block it, go ahead and but the old Geo Metro. It was all of those things. 1.3 liter engine, 3 cylinders, and got incredible gas mileage.

And only lasted around 3 years, until it was replaced by the 1.5 liter 4 cylinder model. Less mileage, but closer to the performance that people wanted.

Chevy knew years ago that the model was pointless in the US and nobody wanted it, so they sold it to Daewoo. Which by the way they still make, just do not import to the US.

You are confusing the fact a car was not released here, with the simple fact that even the maker knew it was unsellable in the US. Simply not enough consumers in the US would want such a vehicle, so they did not bother. But getting the US approval is often a big deal, as many other countries recognize them as meeting or exceeding their own standards.

Hence, getting a "US Approved Car" sent to Japan is simple, but doing the reverse costs a lot of money modifying the car to meet US standards. Get a car approved for US distribution (even if you never intend to actually do so) means that approval is basically given in Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, and a lot of other countries.

I do not have to "look up the history", this was actually one of the topics we covered when I was at UTI last year. That a lot of cars are not sold here, for various reasons. Like the Suzuki Jimmy, not sold in the US simply because they knew they could not meet demand. Other cars you can't get here are made by companies like Citroen, VW Scirocco (which used to be sold in the US), Honda E, the station wagon models of almost all Toyota models, and the list just goes on and on.

Still made, the makers all either tried (and failed) with them in the US market, or know from past experience they were not popular here so does not bother. Like the Scirocco. A moderately popular car in the US, it was dumped here in 1988. It sold in Canada for another 4 years, then the line was dumped.

Brought back in 2007, VW decided to not sell it in NA at all. In price and style it was too close to the Golf (Rabbit), and they simply decided it was not a viable care in our market.

But please, prove me wrong by simply telling when the last comparable car was that sold well in the US. Hell, even the Smart could barely last 11 years, they pulled out of the US market 2 years ago. It was big for a short time, then people realized the problems (like a serious lack of power), and sales largely died.

Not from any kind if interference, it is simply a grossly underpowered car for any reasonable expectations in the US market. A modern rebirth of the Smart or Geo Metro. Cars that had already tried and ultimately failed.

Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

And only lasted around 3 years, until it was replaced by the 1.5 liter 4 cylinder model. Less mileage, but closer to the performance that people wanted.

Even Cooper from the UK ended up making a larger version of their Mini for the US market.

StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

You are confusing the fact a car was not released here, with the simple fact that even the maker knew it was unsellable in the US.

With a decade of experience in selling Japanese (Subaru) cars, and fifteen years experience building Japanese (Subaru) cars in the US - there's stuff that works fine for overseas that simply can't fly here, due to safety standards or size.

There are a lot of cars made for the Asian market that are too small for Americans to even fit in. I'm not talking about overweight people, I'm simply talking about people that are 6' tall and weigh 200 pounds. We DON'T FIT in a lot of Asian market only cars.

European cars aren't quite as bad for size, but after VW purposely programmed their cars to cheat on US emissions tests, that didn't go well here for reputation. Last year, we were getting ten year old VW's at auction with 30,000 miles on them that had been sitting in a field for seven years, due to their buyback program.

joyR ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

What was the last 2 door coupe that was popular with the average consumer?

Model T Ford

:)

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@joyR

Model T Ford

Which was a two door only because there were no doors for the front seat. :)

Keet ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

Like the Suzuki Jimmy

Hey, don't underestimate the Jimny ;) I had a third generation one two decades ago. A really fun car. At the time the only car that could drive on a 45ยฐ angle side ways. Don't know if they're still the only ones that can do that. Because of it's light weight it could drive places where a Jeep Cherokee or similar would get stuck. Really popular with the 4-wheel drive crowd. It out sold the Jeep Wrangler by two to one in 1987 in North America (says Wikipedia).

Replies:   Mushroom
Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

Hey, don't underestimate the Jimny ;)

I am not at all. I was actually looking at buying one in 1984, before they even got a name change and were finally exported to the US as the Suzuki Samurai in 1985.

But the fact is, they were sold since 1970, and there had long been an "underground import" market for them in the US. Suzuki simply held back for years, as they knew they could never meet the US demand without removing sales from their core market areas. By then, the Jimny was being made in 8 countries, so they could meet the expected US demand. Which was indeed huge.

But that is a perfect example of a vehicle that was not held back for any reason other than they knew they could never meet the demand. Which is why when they finally did enter the US market, they worked closely with GM to establish everything they would need as a reasonable competitor.

bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

What was the last 2 door coupe that was popular with the average consumer?

Easy. Ford Mustang.

BTW, the bigger issue with the Smart was the lack of cargo capacity. Unless you're single and live alone, it wasn't much use for getting groceries. (And it's not legal to have a child passenger due to no back seat. At least in certain nanny state areas.) With the paddle shift, and some driving ability, it wasn't bad for performance...it just wasn't great for driving stupidly.

StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Keet

Creating a double track maglev system for a story shouldn't be too difficult if you do your research on the (elevation) limitations maglev has so you can plan a believable route.

Actually, it's pretty simple. The section below is considered spoiler research for 'A True History', and while what I mention here won't show up directly, it will be reflected in the story itself.

Total distance is 735 miles. Bridge pilings positioned every 40 feet. Track sections built off site, trucked in, and lifted into position by cranes, just like they have been for decades.

97,000 bridge pilings needed, 97,000 track sections needed. Total train weight, 80 tons; total cargo weight, 100 tons, total train length, 12 cars. Two power cars, ten platform cars between capable of handling interchangeable cargo pods. Speed of 250 mph. Construction cost (1985 prices) - $800 million USD. Construction time - 3 years. Human capacity - up to 800 passengers per train, trains leave all station (3 total stations with 240 miles between 1 & 2, and 490 miles between 2 & 3) every half hour. Trains are designed with 'pods'. Passenger pod can be removed, bulk cargo pod put in place. Anticipate normal train to be 4 passenger and 4 high priority cargo. Actual train (w/o pods) cost of $50 million each.

Replies:   Dominions Son  DBActive
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

Construction cost (1985 prices) - $800 million USD. Construction time

You've misplaced a decimal point somewhere.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-02-10/high-speed-rail-central-valley-single-track-rising-cost

The new plan also estimates that the full cost of building the full Los Angeles-to-San Francisco system could reach $100 billion, up from an estimated $98 billion a year ago. The rail authority continues to project a mid-2030s startup, despite a massive $80-billion funding gap to actually build the full line.


And that's without the complication of maglev.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

You've misplaced a decimal point somewhere.

You've misplaced 35 years.

My story is set in 1985.

Who cares what the granola state is doing in 2021?

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@StarFleet Carl


You've misplaced 35 years.

My story is set in 1985.

35 years isn't going to make that much difference.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

The conversion from 1985 $ to 2021 $ is around 2.43.

So if we back convert the CA high speed rail projected cost to 1985 dollars, that is still $41 Billion with a B.

Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

35 years isn't going to make that much difference.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

The conversion from 1985 $ to 2021 $ is around 2.43.

So if we back convert the CA high speed rail projected cost to 1985 dollars, that is still $41 Billion with a B.

That's only valid if there are no other cost increase factors involved in the project. If one of the materials used had an increase in costs that was outside of the inflation rate that would be a greater increase, as would design changes required to meet new legislation. Another would be mandated wages increases for one sector of the work force. Then you have the issue of 'dead costs' caused by work stoppages.

I know of a construction project in Sydney back in the 1980s where the cost went up by three million dollars ( a 25% increase) due to having to pay for people to stand around and do nothing for some weeks while the government brought in some archaeological experts to carry out a 'dig' on part of the site when some artefacts were found while digging out what was to be the lowest basement area.

Many things can affect project costs that are outside the inflation rates.

bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Ernest Bywater

Many things can affect project costs that are outside the inflation rates.

Also, the really insane environmental impact assessments and other associated bullshit didn't really start adding to project costs until the nineties, at least not so much as now. And then there's the inevitable injunctions because the proposed route travels through the only known habitat of the lefthanded horsedicked flea...

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

insane environmental impact assessments and other associated bullshit

Totally irrelevant for the project in question. No one gives a crap about lefthanded horsedicked fleas. (Or righthanded ones, either.)

Replies:   joyR
joyR ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

Totally irrelevant for the project in question. No one gives a crap about lefthanded horsedicked fleas.

Millions of female left-handed fleas will stridently disagree with you..!!

As will a surprising number of female left footed fleas, right footed fleas. right-handed fleas and numerous kinky gnats, midges etc.

So, either retract your statement, or invest in bulk shipments of 'OFF'.

:)

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@Ernest Bywater

Many things can affect project costs that are outside the inflation rates


Incompetence being chief among those things. The last quarter century of my career was spent consulting/trouble shooting for a multitude of projects around the world. Ninety percent of which were large cap (billion or more FEED based initial budget).

Replies:   Ernest Bywater
Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

Ayep, incompetence can be an issue, especially with government managed projects. However, meeting government mandated BS has caused more overruns and killed more projects than incompetence has.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Ernest Bywater

Ayep, incompetence can be an issue, especially with government managed projects. However, meeting government mandated BS has caused more overruns and killed more projects than incompetence has.

My experience has to disagree with that. Front End Engineers Design (FEED) takes the current mandates into account. That is assuming those developing it are competent. The FEED is required prior to execution of feasibility and subsequent funding analysis. Only then can an informed decision be made in regards to moving forward on the project.

That gets us back to incompetence again. If the people pushing the proposal are playing fast and loose (read incompetent) they set themselves up for failure. Not every project is, or ever could be, economically viable. When the people at the top who are making these brain dead proposals have surrounded themselves with sycophants and yes men, they have surrounding themselves with a culture of incompetence. Many times the mid-level people who would know better get pushed aside by those idiots.

Therefore, incompetence is the root cause for the lions share of failed and massively over-run projects.

Edit: Remember I'm not talking about low level projects like a restaurant. I'm talking about power plants and or upgrades, LNG facilities, large buildings, and other things in excess of 500 million in cost.

Replies:   Ernest Bywater
Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

My experience has to disagree with that. Front End Engineers Design (FEED) takes the current mandates into account. That is assuming those developing it are competent. The FEED is required prior to execution of feasibility and subsequent funding analysis. Only then can an informed decision be made in regards to moving forward on the project.

While all that's true, what I've been talking about is the government BS that gets introduced between when the project is given the funding and the go ahead and when the project reaches the completed stage. Usually there's years involved and most private enterprise project have a legal requirement to meet any new government requirements introduced along the way.

If it's a government requirement existing and not taken into account during the planning, that's incompetence. But when the government pass new regulations, that government interference BS and that's what pushes up the costs of a lot of long term projects.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@Ernest Bywater

Yes it can happen, though it's much rarer than people think. An example being the keystone pipeline.

However, government, insurer, corporation and or conglomerate sign offs agreeing to the code of record, year and specifics of regulatory requirements, ad nauseam are all part of the contracts prior to the first scoop of dirt. The aforementioned FEED covers that.

Only an idiot is going to sign off on building a large cap project without those details nailed down. To do otherwise makes cost projection impossible as the project will suffer from a multitude of moving targets.

Replies:   Ernest Bywater
Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Remus2


However, government, insurer, corporation and or conglomerate sign offs agreeing to the code of record, year and specifics of regulatory requirements, ad nauseam are all part of the contracts prior to the first scoop of dirt. The aforementioned FEED covers that.

Down here, the government only gets involved in signing agreements for government contracts. Want to build an electricity generating station for the state government, they get involved and sign off on it. Want to build the same electricity generating station in another area for a private power company and none of the government look at the paperwork.

In either case, you may have the project a quarter of the way through and the commonwealth government passes a new law that adds requirements to the construction task. Bad luck, you now have an extra expense as you have to comply. The reverse can apply in that you're building something with commonwealth government approval and suddenly have to meet new state government requirements.

edit to add: A perfect example of the most extreme cross-government interference is the Franklin Dam Project in Tasmania back in the late 1970s. It had state government approval but some lobbyists got the commonwealth government to block it by declaring the area a World Heritage Site and thus couldn't be built in.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_Dam_controversy

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Ernest Bywater

Our company and myself had a few stays in Australia troubleshooting some issues on the Gladstone project.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gladstone_LNG

The Australian government did in fact try to renege on their 2010 agreements more than once. However, Foster Wheeler and Bechtel had such attempts baked into the FEED. Australia is notorious in the construction world for that. If the FEED isn't rock solid, the politicians will use them as a whipping boy if they are mining, power, and O&G interest.

Even in Australia, they can't get around a properly set FEED and contracts.

Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

If I remember right that project involved both the state and commonwealth governments as active participants from the start. Needed because of the type of contract and the land it was on.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Ernest Bywater

It's been a few years, but as I recall, all such facilities require various Australian government entities to be involved by law. That extends to your grid, refineries, pipelines, and larger mining operations. Only New Zealand has a similar setup in the world.

On the surface, Russia has what looks to be a similar setup, but the surface similarities is where it ends.

Some have compared China to it, but most of those people likely have never worked on Chinese projects and are talking out of their arse.

Replies:   Ernest Bywater
Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

In some cases yes, the law requires government involvement, in others it doesn't, and it can vary from state to state. The main reason for government involvement in that project was the bulk of the land was government owned land leased to people for the use of the surface while the government still controlled the mineral rights as it was leased land as against full title land. Certain types of minerals also come under government control, as does most interstate commerce as well. It's a very mixed bag due to the historical aspects of many things.

Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

The Australian government did in fact try to renege on their 2010 agreements

Especially if the ALP are in power at the time and the contract is for something approved of by a Liberal government. That was the case with the Gladstone project, approved by the Liberals and the ALP did like it so they tried to interfere with it.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Ernest Bywater


Especially if the ALP are in power at the time and the contract is for something approved of by a Liberal government. That was the case with the Gladstone project, approved by the Liberals and the ALP did like it so they tried to interfere with it.



I don't recall the name of the organization that tried to shut it down 2011/2012. I do know they tried to use the disaster in Japan as an excuse to kill it. That btw was were my company got involved. The FEED built in a lot of safeguards against seismic and tsunami events. There was no recorded history, nor geological evidence for the severity of the safeguards, but it did kill the movement to shut it down. As it was, I ended up with a few weeks of third party review and inspections along with a dozen other poor bastards doing the same thing. We only found minor issues, aka a fundamental waste of time and money. Bechtel, Foster Wheeler, and the other partners in the project had it in hand. We didn't complain to much though, it was easy money.

Ernest Bywater ๐Ÿšซ

@Ernest Bywater

Government's can ruin a project faster than anything short of a nuclear bomb hitting it and going off.

I've seen a project where the company had just finished clearing the land to start building a warehouse of about a square mile and employee about 300 people in their wholesale / retail operation when the state government passed a changed law that required companies to have double the staff parking they used to have. For that operation it meant cut the operation size in half or erect a huge car parking building as well. The end result was the company moved their new nation warehouse facility to the state capital in the next state and sold their property to a developer who put in a couple of large car parking buildings for use by the staff of the other nearby businesses and a small strip mall type food court to feed the existing work force. End result was about 25 jobs created in that area with a lot of unemployed people. Also, the state lost many millions of dollars of annual tax revenue due to all that business trade going to another state.

I've also seen a proposed restaurant go from sit in to takeaway due to the government mandate a significant increase in wages for casual staff due to the government's links with the unions pushing for the wage rise. It made the Return on Investment go from a 5 year break point to a 15 year break point due to cutting the profit by more than half if they'd stayed with the original plan for a large sit down restaurant with lots of staff to being a takeaway operation with a large car park. Instead of the family running the kitchen and register with a couple of dozen restaurant staff the operation became a family only operation. After a year of operation the books showed they got in about a quarter of the revenue they would have got under the original business plan. However, the reality was they ended up with about the same money for the family in wages and profit as per the original plan and about two and a quarter times what the family would've ended up with if they'd gone with the original plan and the new casual wages bill for it. The union push for more money stopped the creation of many jobs.

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@Ernest Bywater

That's only valid if there are no other cost increase factors involved in the project. If one of the materials used had an increase in costs that was outside of the inflation rate that would be a greater increase, as would design changes required to meet new legislation. Another would be mandated wages increases for one sector of the work force. Then you have the issue of 'dead costs' caused by work stoppages.

Not to mention the huge increase of the cost of land.

Land values in California have skyrocketed over the last 40 years. I remember in the mid-1990's, when "Affordable Housing" was in the range of $250k. Today, it is closer to $500k.

Price calculators are great, if looking at the price of a single item, like a car or loaf of bread. They quickly loose their reliability however when used to look at things like construction projects.

StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

The conversion from 1985 $ to 2021 $ is around 2.43.

So if we back convert the CA high speed rail projected cost to 1985 dollars, that is still $41 Billion with a B.

That's a wonderful thing.

Too bad the system in question isn't being built in California, the land of inflated labor and material rates due to stupidity. You know, where a gallon of gas that I could buy today costs me $2.50 and out there they charge $6.50 (or more) due to excessive taxes.

That's the polite way of saying that using the cost of the CA high speed rail for anything is an irrelevant standard, since the damned thing has been a boondoggle and money laundering scheme since day one.

Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

since the damned thing has been a boondoggle and money laundering scheme since day one.

An accurate description of every passenger rail project everywhere in the US in the last 50 years.

Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

Standard railroad track, not elevated, not high speed, not maglev, and not tied to California runs $1M-$2M per mile. And that's without land acquisition.

The Disneyland Monorail cost $1M per mile in 1959.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disneyland_Monorail_System

Yes, that's California too, but it's a private project built entirely on privately owned land.

DBActive ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@StarFleet Carl

In 1996 Amtrak purchased just the Acela trains (20 train sets with 6 passenger and 2 power cars) for the same $800MM amount you are projecting for the entire project.

I also guess that the project is going to get the land needed for free since that's not in your calculations.

The easiest way to show the extremely high costs of any elevated system is to look at Disney World. For many many reasons, Disney would like to expand the monorail to the rest of the parks but the cost is absolutely prohibitive - it would cost tens of millions per mile to do it.

You might want to look at this page https://www.monorails.org/tMspages/HowMuch.html that deals with monorail construction. In 1964 the construction cost for a low speed monorail system was $15MM per kilometer - something over $18B for the system you propose. Of course your system is more complicated and expensive.
Or you could compare the first Japanese high speed system built for 400B yen - $21B in 1964. Double the inital estimates.

Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@DBActive

In 1996 Amtrak purchased just the Acela trains (20 train sets with 6 passenger and 2 power cars) for the same $800MM amount you are projecting for the entire project.

http://www.acwr.com/economic-development/railroads-101/rail-siding-costs

What's more, the cost of regular, not elevated, not high speed, and not maglev, railroad track is around 1-2 million dollars per mile, not counting land acquisition.

And he thinks he could build 730 miles of elevated maglev track for just $800M,

Replies:   StarFleetCarl
StarFleetCarl ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

What's more, the cost of regular, not elevated, not high speed, and not maglev, railroad track is around 1-2 million dollars per mile, not counting land acquisition.

And he thinks he could build 730 miles of elevated maglev track for just $800M,

If you're using costs from 2020 - which you are - and in the United States - which you are, then damn, you're right.

Too bad I'm not - which makes you wrong. You know, you're the one who tried to use the $2.43 conversion rate earlier, which means track costs of $411,000 to $823,000 would be pretty darned accurate. Oh, look, $823,000 time 730 miles is only $601,000,000 - well BELOW my figure of $800,000,000.

Don't you just hate it when I use your OWN FIGURES to point out how YOU screwed up?

I've been working and researching this for a LONG time. These aren't figures I just pulled out of my butt and created from nowhere.

Using the cost figure from 1985, each 40 foot section, with piers, should cost approximately $5,760. With 132 sections per mile - and keep in mind, this is NOT 50 pound per foot railroad track that's being installed, it's MOSTLY concrete with just a few extra things needed (mag-lev - NO RAIL CONTACT!) - that gives us a 1985 cost of $748,800 per mile. Times 730 miles, puts it at $546,624,000. It's the fiddly bits that account for the $250 million.

And again, no costs for land acquisition needed. This isn't being built in the United States.

Replies:   DBActive  Dominions Son
DBActive ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleetCarl


I've been working and researching this for a LONG time. These aren't figures I just pulled out of my butt and created from nowhere.

I would be interested in your sources that state the cost would be less than a million when the real-life examples have costs in the hundreds of millions per mile.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@DBActive

I would be interested in your sources that state the cost would be less than a million when the real-life examples have costs in the hundreds of millions per mile.

Sure.

First off, here's the basis for regular high speed rail that I used:

2017 Railroad Engineering & Construction Cost Benchmarks

The rest of it was simply digging in and figuring out how much building a concrete bridge costs. It didn't hurt that Dolese Brothers Construction is right down the road, so I simply called them and explained I was doing research for a book and ASKED them how much a twenty foot (which means about forty feet, depending upon how far DOWN into the ground the support has do go) set of bridge pilings would cost, and then how much supports and decking cost. When I mentioned rail, the cost for a single bridge went DOWN, to about $80/sq ft. Converting that into 1985 dollars gives me a figure of $35/sq ft.

I also used this as an additional reference:
Bridge Replacement Cost Analysis

With everything showing costs in here in the US, I made the slight adjustment that the project itself is NOT here.

Again, basically all we're doing is building a 740 mile long bridge, that has two reinforced concrete 'rail beds' on it, but no rails, and the appropriate materials for the rather inexpensive superconducting magnets needed.

Remember, there is a bit of science FICTION in the story, which means the cost of keeping things cold is practically zero due to Ice-X. (And I did just realize I forgot labor costs completely, the $800 million is just for the built rail bridges. So that figure will have to go up a little bit - maybe $100 million.)

Replies:   DBActive  Remus2
DBActive ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

The labor cost would probably the highest percentage of the final cost. You are also leaving out things like electricity, control systems and the cost of those superconducting electromagnetic.
And my currency conversion was way off.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@DBActive

You are also leaving out things like electricity, control systems and the cost of those superconducting electromagnetic.

Actually, the electricity is cheap. The whole system can be powered by a single wind turbine, including all the trains. (Keep in mind, these are the wind turbines IN the story, not the stuff we have now. I'm being internally consistent.)

The control systems are being designed, but won't be much more difficult than a standard block control system like is used now. Having access to Siemens, Thyssen, AND both Intel for chip design and Cisco for networking helps keep costs down. And superconducting magnets, no worries about heat loss due to Ice-X. (Again, internally consistent in the story.)

The whole point behind this maglev is that it's supposed to be proof of concept. Chapter 67 of the story will help explain things further. :)

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

Remember, there is a bit of science FICTION in the story, which means the cost of keeping things cold is practically zero due to Ice-X. (And I did just realize I forgot labor costs completely, the $800 million is just for the built rail bridges. So that figure will have to go up a little bit - maybe $100 million.)



The basic problem I see with your approach is that you are trying to inject too much realism into a science fiction story. Particularly in regards to the economics of it.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Remus2


The basic problem I see with your approach is that you are trying to inject too much realism into a science fiction story. Particularly in regards to the economics of it.

The story is based on an alternate Earth starting in 1984. I've intentionally used real world locations, because I want the readers to be able to relate. I've received multiple compliments from readers that have mentioned how I put little details into my story that match reality. (Skaets in Hutch actually has a Moon Burger, the Red Lobster was brand new in 1984 that's just behind Eck Ford in Wichita, just for a couple of examples.)

Economics doesn't change just because it's science fiction. Cal, Beth, Dora, and Eve may now all have powers similar to the blue boy scout, but I always felt there was something missing, that no one ever took into consideration. The actual world behind the fairy tales in the illustrated novels (aka comic books).

Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleetCarl

Too bad I'm not - which makes you wrong. You know, you're the one who tried to use the $2.43 conversion rate earlier, which means track costs of $411,000 to $823,000 would be pretty darned accurate. Oh, look, $823,000 time 730 miles is only $601,000,000 - well BELOW my figure of $800,000,000.

Except you missed the fact that that was for standard railroad tract on the ground. Elevated maglev track would cost more.

It cost Disney $1M per mile in 1959 to build the track for the Disneyland elevated monorail, and that "track" is basically just prefab concrete I-beams.


And again, no costs for land acquisition needed. This isn't being built in the United States.


How does it not being built in the United States mean that you can build it without paying the current land owners for the land needed to build on?

Replies:   StarFleetCarl
StarFleetCarl ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

It cost Disney $1M per mile in 1959 to build the track for the Disneyland elevated monorail, and that "track" is basically just prefab concrete I-beams.

How does it not being built in the United States mean that you can build it without paying the current land owners for the land needed to build on?

Guess what? That's basically what MY track is, too. Without the material costs of building it in California. Which is what I've been saying, all along. NO RAILS NEEDED!

Simple. Not only is the current land owner a partner in the business, the current land owner owns all of the land.

In the whole country.

All the land owner (aka the KING) has to do is say, yep, we're building that here. As Mel Brooks said, "It's good to be the King!"

StarFleetCarl ๐Ÿšซ

@DBActive

In 1996 Amtrak purchased just the Acela trains (20 train sets with 6 passenger and 2 power cars) for the same $800MM amount you are projecting for the entire project.

I also guess that the project is going to get the land needed for free since that's not in your calculations.

Two power cars with 10 spaces for passenger or cargo pods between them are projected to cost approximately $50 million each, for a total cost of $900 million for the 12 units plus pods needed for the project. These trains and cars will be built by Siemens and Thyssen AG. (See, I'm keeping things consistent within the story!)

The $800 million is just for the bridge and track structure itself, and actually, you're correct in your guess, there is no cost for the land. Helps that it's not being built in the United States.

Replies:   DBActive
DBActive ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@StarFleetCarl


The $800 million is just for the bridge and track structure itself, and actually, you're correct in your guess, there is no cost for the land. Helps that it's not being built in the United States.

Are you counting in the cost of the electrical wiring for the tracks, demolition, security and control systems, road construction, site grading, relocation of people in the way, security fencing, electrical infrastructure and transportation costs?
How does this compare with the cost of something like the Newark Airport monorail that cost (with no land acquistion cost) $219M per mile in 1984 dollars, including rolling stock.

StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

How do you explain the difference in real costs and yours. Your costs are a minute fraction of real costs Japan incurred decades earlier.

First, I'm not sure where you're converting currency. If you look at the history, the original plan, which included the rolling stock (the trains, for those who don't know what that means) was a budget for 300 billion yen, made in 1958. Converting 300 billion yen to 1958 - 1964 USD comes out to $833 Million.

Second, they had massive cost overruns, because this was 'experimental' technology at the time.

Third, is one simple word. Tunnels. The Tokaido Shinkansen uses a tunnel that was finished in 1963 that is 7,950 meters long. Effectively they had to drill a tunnel through five MILES of the Hakone Mountain range. The westbound lanes of the Eisenhower tunnel cost $108 million in 1973, and that was only 1/3 the length. That's 32 Billion Japanese Yen in 1973 currency, 38 Billion in 1964. So, figure 100 Billion Yen of that cost was just for the one tunnel. And they were only putting in 320 miles of track!

This line also isn't going through one of the most heavily populated regions in the world, either.

Four - no rails. I know, what's a train without a track, right? In 2017, the 100 pound rail cost for high speed trains averaged $35 per FOOT. That's $140 million in 1985 dollars that the system doesn't need.

You know how there's thread around the forums about how authors don't do research?

I have so damned many folders, files, and internet links for the amount of research I've done for this story to make it as close to right as I can that's it not funny. Historical currency converters, historical CD rates, the Great Circle mapper so airplane routes are right, the ACN-PCN tables for nearly all aircraft in the world, five different sites for various construction costs, including not only regular rail but also high speed rail, plus of course highway and airport construction costs, just to name a few.

Is it overkill? I don't know. But I remember reading in an autobiography that an author needed to have his character make a comment about some object in space. This was pre-internet days, so the author spent two days doing research and making the calculations to get the comment right. One line, just a throw-away. When he was asked about it later, he said, "Yeah, I could have just said anything. But this is right." That's what I'm trying to do.

Replies:   Radagast
Radagast ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

From 'Building the Mote in God's Eye', published in 'N-Space' by Larry Niven:

MOTE is probably the only novel ever to have a planet's orbit changed to save a line. New Chicago, as it appeared in the opening scenes of the first draft of MOTE, was a cold place, orbiting far from its star. It was never a very important point, and Larry Niven didn't even notice it.

Thus when he introduced Lady Sandra Liddell Leonovna Bright Fowler, he used as viewpoint character a Marine guard sweating in hot sunlight. The Marine thinks, "She doesn't sweat. She was carved from ice by the finest sculptor that ever lived." Now that's a good line. Unfortunately it implies a hot planet. If the line must be kept, the planet must be moved.

So Jerry Pournelle moved it. New Chicago became a world much closer to a cooler sun. Its year changed, its climate changed, its whole history had to be changed. . Worth it, though. Sometimes it's easier to build new worlds than think up good lines


Also relevant:
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/ShownTheirWork/Literature

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