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Source of a fictional pandemic?

PotomacBob ๐Ÿšซ

I have read that the 1918 Flu Pandemic, in the U.S., probably started in the Midwest (Kansas?), and was concentrated in a military base, and probably spread across the U.S. by soldiers on trains.
The question I have is where did it originate and how did it get to Kansas?
The current pandemic, it is said, started in China, but came to the U.S. via Europe, which is why the early hot spots were the East Coast instead of the West Coast, as you might expect if it moved directly from China to U.S.
I once read a novel, dead-tree type probably decades ago, about an American-born Pandemic spread from squirrels to a tourist in the Rocky Mountains, and from there spread via airplane travel by those who got it from the squirrels. (I do not recall the name of the novel nor its author; nor do I remember the specific affliction that spread from squirrels)
To write about a fictional pandemic in times of peace (no soldiers on trains) that seems to spread from, say, Iowa (or any place else not on either Coast), what is a believable cause and starting point. (I ask because of what I read elsewhere on this forum - "unlike real life fiction has to make sense.")

Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@PotomacBob

The question I have is where did it originate and how did it get to Kansas?

It originated in Europe. It was called the Spanish Flu for a reason.

As to how it got to Kansas, or the US in general, soldiers returning to the US at the end of WWI.

Switch Blayde ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

It originated in Europe. It was called the Spanish Flu for a reason.

According to this, it did not start in Spain.

Spain was one of only a few major European countries to remain neutral during World War I. Unlike in the Allied and Central Powers nations, where wartime censors suppressed news of the flu to avoid affecting morale, the Spanish media was free to report on it in gory detail. News of the sickness first made headlines in Madrid in late-May 1918, and coverage only increased after the Spanish King Alfonso XIII came down with a nasty case a week later. Since nations undergoing a media blackout could only read in depth accounts from Spanish news sources, they naturally assumed that the country was the pandemic's ground zero. The Spanish, meanwhile, believed the virus had spread to them from France, so they took to calling it the "French Flu."

Replies:   Dominions Son  Remus2
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@Switch Blayde

According to this, it did not start in Spain.

And I didn't say that it started in Spain. However the highest profile early case was as you noted the King of Spain.

It likely started somewhere in the germ soup that were the trenches of the WWI battle fields.

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@Switch Blayde

You didn't post where you got that. However, here it is for those that wish to read it.
https://www.history.com/news/why-was-it-called-the-spanish-flu

Africa was a major confluence for the 1918 pandemic. All of the earliest known inflicted countries had interest in Africa. Spain being "neutral" in the war was a kicker though. Their interest in and around Morocco tied them to the other affected countries through North Africa.

Eddie Davidson ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Dominions Son

It originated in Europe. It was called the Spanish Flu for a reason.

They don't always name things accurately. Sometimes it's just racist.

Every major source on the topic says it did not originate in Spain. It was just popular at the time. Spain was one of the few countries not to pick a side in WWI. Their King (as noted earlier) was the most famous person to get it -and so it goes.

Just like calling it the Wuhan flu is popular with people who "Hate china" but keep secret bank accounts there.

I think the origin of this is the same thing that makes platypus's have a duck bill and a beaver tail. The planet is giving us a sign "time to go".

Michael Loucks ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Eddie Davidson

Just like calling it the Wuhan flu is popular with people who "Hate china" but keep secret bank accounts there.

I'm willing to wager that account was disclosed on the appropriate reporting forms required by the US government. Had it not been, you can be sure that would have been reported by the NY Times.

Per the IRS, an FBAR (Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts) must be filed each year:

A United States person, including a citizen, resident, corporation, partnership, limited liability company, trust and estate, must file an FBAR to report:

a financial interest in or signature or other authority over at least one financial account located outside the United States if

the aggregate value of those foreign financial accounts exceeded $10,000 at any time during the calendar year reported.

The FBAR is an annual report, due April 15 following the calendar year reported. Whatever else you might want to say about Trump's taxes, I'm willing to bet he filed all the correct forms in this regard. If he hadn't, we're know by now.

StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Eddie Davidson

keep secret bank accounts

I'm trying to figure out what's 'secret' about it. It was listed on the appropriate forms filed with the US Government. The account itself was necessary to put money into the country to fund the people who were looking into the feasibility of doing business there. The account was opened as a private citizen / corporation, and was closed because there was no need for it well before any attempt to run for public office was made.

You might as well say, hey, why did you pay so little in personal income taxes? Well, as a private citizen, don't you do the same? Keep in mind that the laws and regulations regarding taxes were written by Congress. Also keep in mind that it was that same Congress that up until just a very short time ago could legally do insider stock trading based upon their knowledge of upcoming legislation. Now, which person running was a private citizen, and which was a member of Congress?

Also, a minor detail, it's the WuFlu is because that's where the damned thing originated. Even the scientists say it either came from the wet markets, from research into bats that lived nearby, or it came from poor safety protocols from the lab, all of which are in ... WUHAN.

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@PotomacBob

Camp Funston in Fort Riley Kansas to be specific. The premise that it was squirrels is BS though. King Alfonso XIII of Spain was recorded to have been afflicted with it earlier that any recorded case in the US, which btw was where it got the name "Spanish Flu."

WW1 censors buried a lot of information to keep moral up, so no definitive patient zero ever showed, but it was known that Spain, Germany, and England were the sources of the earliest recorded examples. Where they got it from could never be proven, but the virus was later recreated in a lab. Ironically, it was the Wuhan lab where that recreation was done. In my research, most virologist doubt the 1918 pandemic started in China though. The DNA profile for it was too far removed from any potential source in China as I was informed. No one can prove definitively where it started, but it's more likely to have begun in Africa than China.

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

No one can prove definitively where it started, but it's more likely to have begun in Africa than China.

Any specific reason to believe that it didn't start in Europe? The trenches of WWI were one hell of a petri dish.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

@Dominions Son

Any specific reason to believe that it didn't start in Europe? The trenches of WWI were one hell of a petri dish.

Source material. Just as it's not likely for the 1918 version to originate in China, the same argument can be applied to America and Europe. Don't forget there was an African theatre in that war. Where materials/biologics and other factors did converge, was in Africa.

LupusDei ๐Ÿšซ

Most -- if not all -- novel infections spread to humans originally by jumping species from some animal source. While single incident is possible, it usually requires repeated contact for a variety capable to spread between humans to emerge. Isolated or otherwise limited human populations may contain a novel infection for a prolonged period before spreading it out, sometimes without much attention (especially if the originally infected sub-population was poor and/or discriminated natives). It often happens where relatively undisturbed wildlife is challenged by new human pressure.

China (and south east Asia region in general) had been plague factory for ages.

There's the theoretical chance of a previously benign and thus unremarkable infection to suddenly mutate into something nightmarish. But while that might happen, it doesn't make too much evolutionary sense. Further, it will likely be known and thus probably relatively easy to deal with.

It makes slightly more sense for something rare and obscure but already dangerous to evolve to be couple of magnitudes more infectious. Again, it may already be studied, to an extent.

It's only possible to hope for a vaccine against COVID-19 by the end of the year or next, because of previous work on related SARS with was far more deadly, but failed to infectious enough to be real trouble before seemingly *miraculously* disappearing. Well, there's a relative or descendant MERS.

One particularly frightening perspective is the ever increasing temperature tolerance of fungi. Body heat is the mammals natural defense against systemic fungus infections, but there's some troubling signs it may not last. If you want particularly exotic effects, that's a possibly fruitful avenue. (Some think it makes much more sense for a zombie plague, for example.)

LupusDei ๐Ÿšซ
Updated:

Then there's of course the boring staple, but not necessarily all that fantastic possibility of unintentional or even deliberate lab creation.

One likely false but seemingly possible legend of COVID-19 origins is the virology laboratory in vicinity of the wet market in Wuhan, were it is known that work with coronavirus in bats was ongoing. The particular variation that maybe makes some sense is that the lab animals weren't destroyed as required, but sold in the aforementioned wet market.

That it spread from that "wet market" is commonly accepted hypothesis, even if the final carrier animal is not undoubtedly identified (it's believed there's another step between bat and human was required).

bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@PotomacBob

To write about a fictional pandemic in times of peace (no soldiers on trains) that seems to spread from, say, Iowa (or any place else not on either Coast), what is a believable cause and starting point.

Migratory birds.

Infected birds fly over pig farms in Nebraska, and shit on buildings. Light rain washes the bird shit off the roof and into puddle by door. Wormer walks through puddle, tracks infected shit into building. Injured pig becomes infected.
Pig trucked to slaughterhouse. On way, truck is interfered with by animal rights nutjobs/militant vegans. Idiot vegan is infected by pig. Goes to antifa meeting, infects half the morons there. Etc.

Really, the difficulty in breaking security of level four biohazard lab makes the above far more likely than a bioweapons lab being the source.

StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

Really, the difficulty in breaking security of level four biohazard lab makes the above far more likely than a bioweapons lab being the source.

Deliberately breaking security, or stupidly breaking safety protocols? All that really has to happen is for a simple sharps accident that isn't reported.

Keep in mind that here in the US, there aren't that many (3, IIRC) level 4 labs. Lots of level 3 labs, though.

BSL-3 laboratories are used to study infectious agents or toxins that may be transmitted through the air and cause potentially lethal infection through inhalation exposure.

You're an employee that's fucked up a few things, and you've been written up in the past. You're working on something in the cabinet like you're supposed to, but you get startled by something and you accidently jab yourself. Protocol says you report it. But you've also been warned that one more fuck-up and you're fired. What's the odds of you reporting it? Human nature says, nope, not saying anything, and hope for the best.

Congratulations, you're now the incubator and patient zero.

Replies:   bk69
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

Keep in mind that here in the US, there aren't that many (3, IIRC) level 4 labs. Lots of level 3 labs, though.

Officially.

Although I suspect any labs where Murica is actually weaponizing virii would be a level 4 lab. And I can't imagine any non-suicidal employee of such a lab would be willing to take such a risk, without knowing that the virus he was exposed to was largely nonlethal.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

The level of incompetence through insouciance can be astounding.
Just knowing better through training and education, does nothing for some people's apathetic work habits.

Work with something dangerous long enough, and your sense of mundane becomes skewed.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

Just knowing better through training and education, does nothing for some people's apathetic work habits.

Work with something dangerous long enough, and your sense of mundane becomes skewed.

When I was going through NBC school, one of the instructors mentioned that there specifically was a reason they chose Tennessee for to build the facility to make the materials for the first bomb. Not just the location.

They knew they could put someone from there and sit them in front of a dial measuring something, and give them instructions that if the dials moves this way, you turn this knob THAT way, and if the dial moves that way, you turn this knob THIS way, and they'd sit there for a full shift and just do that, day in and day out. They wouldn't ever have the curiosity to wonder, gee, what if I didn't turn the knob, or if I turned it the other way, instead.

The polite way of phrasing this is, never underestimate the power of human stupidity. I've seen guys run fork lift blades through steel i-beams because they were screwing around. I had to purposely wreck a forklift because the manager walked right out in front of me while I was carrying a load of steel blanks, because if I'd slammed the brakes on to stop, my load would have shot forward and killed him. And that's in simple, easy, everyday factory work.

Replies:   PotomacBob  Remus2  bk69
PotomacBob ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

StarFleet Carl
10/24/2020, 12:20:49 PM

@Remus2

Just knowing better through training and education, does nothing for some people's apathetic work habits.

Work with something dangerous long enough, and your sense of mundane becomes skewed.

When I was going through NBC school, one of the instructors mentioned that there specifically was a reason they chose Tennessee for to build the facility to make the materials for the first bomb. Not just the location.

They knew they could put someone from there and sit them in front of a dial measuring something, and give them instructions that if the dials moves this way, you turn this knob THAT way, and if the dial moves that way, you turn this knob THIS way, and they'd sit there for a full shift and just do that, day in and day out. They wouldn't ever have the curiosity to wonder, gee, what if I didn't turn the knob, or if I turned it the other way, instead.

The polite way of phrasing this is, never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

The moral of this story is that people on the SOL forum are not as stupid as people from Tennessee.

Replies:   awnlee jawking
awnlee jawking ๐Ÿšซ

@PotomacBob

The moral of this story is that people on the SOL forum are not as stupid as people from Tennessee.

And yet there's a tendency for extremely intelligent people to seek mundane work rather than seeking glory, knowing there's more to life than making lots of money and appearing on the front page.

AJ

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

There are some very bright people from Tennessee, also some dumb ones. That is true of everywhere you go.

The specific reason for Tennessee to have been chosen, wasn't stupid people. It was the perception of them being stupid, most of which being perpetuated by 'elites' from the N.E. That was in parallel to the TVA influence. The hydroelectric output was high in surrounding areas, along with the fossil power output.

Then there was the nearby Alcoa aluminium output. Again, something extremely important to the war effort, albeit an open effort. Aluminum is and was a power hog. Troops, etc were sent to protect that output. Something that made diverting resources without raising suspicion very easy.

Finally, there was the heavy rail access just south in Chattanooga.

Oak Ridge had a lot of things going for it.

bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

I had to purposely wreck a forklift because the manager walked right out in front of me

What did that forklift do to you? Because I'm not seeing a good reason for what you did.
(BTW, did you unbalance the load and flip to the side, or turn and drive into something? Trying to figure out how you could've kept the load from endangering anyone that didn't deserve to be darwinated while still sparing the idiot boss, and not coming up with great ideas)

Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

I don't know what he did, but I imagine that running into a big enough wall would do the trick.

Replies:   bk69
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Dominions Son

It would depend where the other orkers were at the time - try turning fast with a unbalanced load (or at least unsecured enough that it'd fly off if you try to stop) and that load is liable to slide off to the side. And pull the forklift down with it.

StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

Trying to figure out how you could've kept the load from endangering anyone that didn't deserve to be darwinated while still sparing the idiot boss

The idiot boss was the one should have been darwinated. Or in this case, had everything from the knee down sliced into little bit.

Working in the car plant, stamping shop. We had two blanking lines - presses that cut the coils of steel into rough shaped sheets and then stacked them up - and five transfer presses, which would take the stack of blanks and then turn them into various parts, like fenders, door panels, roofs, whatever.

Roof blanks we had to use the big, gas clamper truck, because of the weight involved. Most everything else, we used a simple Komatsu that could pick up about three thousand pounds. It's not like you could get the blanks up and easily all the way onto your forks, either. Most of the time, you had them on the tips, because the whole forklift won't fit up close to the press.

The OTHER minor detail is that we ran JIT - just in time. Meaning I'm bringing a coil of steel up from the warehouse and loading it for the next run, the press operator is making sure the thing is running, and then I'd unload what we ran, take it directly from the blanking press to the transfer press.

Take 200 double edged razor blades, stack them one on top of the other, and then move them from point A to point B. You'll note that I said nothing about wrapping or securing the load - we didn't do that, you simply were good enough to move the stack of blanks without dumping them (most of the time).

Department manager comes blasting between the dies, so I have no clue he's coming, while I'm bringing a load of door blanks for C line right off the blanking press. He pops out right in front of me. If I hit the brakes, 200 sheets of steel will slice his legs off. If I keep going straight, I'm going to hit him with the full load and run over him.

I got off the throttle and swung the back end left, towards him. The load of blanks came off, but it was like a deck of cards being fanned and to the right, so all I did was hit him with the backrest. But that also meant the battery took one of the lifting pins from a die into it. Those battery casings are tough ... they're not that tough.

He got hurt, but not that badly, and even though he was the whole shop manager, he's the one that got written up for the safety violation.

I think I had a thing for managers. Few years later, I was in the trim shop, taking a container of parts out and driving backwards like normal. Flashing light and beeper worked fine. Final line manager came busting out behind a set of lockers, I nailed him square with the back end of the truck and sent him tumbling 20 feet down the aisle. He was pissed, but it was his fault for not being in the crosswalk, and for not stopping. Pedestrians do NOT have the right of way in a factory environment.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

He was pissed, but it was his fault for not being in the crosswalk, and for not stopping. Pedestrians do NOT have the right of way in a factory environment.

They do have the right of way in designated areas. What you meant to say is, they don't have the right away in undesignated areas.

At least in the US. Elsewhere, that is not the case.

Replies:   StarFleet Carl
StarFleet Carl ๐Ÿšซ

@Remus2

At least in the US. Elsewhere, that is not the case.

IN the factory?

And yes, there specifically are designated crosswalks on the factory floor. But you pop out behind a locker in the middle of the line without stopping, you're going to get run over.

Replies:   Remus2
Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@StarFleet Carl

IN the factory?

And yes, there specifically are designated crosswalks on the factory floor. But you pop out behind a locker in the middle of the line without stopping, you're going to get run over.

Yes, IN the factory. Specific countries being Venezuela, India, China, Ukraine, and a few others depending upon which year is in question. Life is cheap elsewhere in the world.

In your case, yes, popping out in an undesignated area is asking for it.

Remus2 ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

Really, the difficulty in breaking security of level four biohazard lab makes the above far more likely than a bioweapons lab being the source.

If procedures are followed properly, then you'd be correct. However, that is not always the case.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

Infected birds fly over pig farms in Nebraska, and shit on buildings. Light rain washes the bird shit off the roof and into puddle by door. Wormer walks through puddle, tracks infected shit into building. Injured pig becomes infected.

OK, we now have to have a virus that can jump between 3 different species. Any idea how rare that is?

At this time, the most infectious one I know of like that is actually the Philippine strain of Ebola. The actual vector is unknown, but is believed to be bats. And it has in the last decades been discovered that it can jump to pigs, canines, and humans (as well as other primates). However, we are also lucky in that this particular strain is asymptomatic to those 3, although it does kill other primates like a hot knife through butter.

But notice, that is a strain that can infect humans, we do not get sick from it. This is the same strain that was discovered in the US in 1989.

Replies:   bk69
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@Mushroom

OK, we now have to have a virus that can jump between 3 different species. Any idea how rare that is?

Avian flu. It's had a history of jumping to pigs. And pigs are not a unknown vector for introducing a virus to people. Are the probabilities favoring this happening? No. Is it plausible? Yes.

Wheezer ๐Ÿšซ

@bk69

truck is interfered with by animal rights nutjobs/militant vegans. Idiot vegan is infected by pig. Goes to antifa meeting, infects half the morons there. Etc.

Ya voting for Trump again?

Replies:   Dominions Son
Dominions Son ๐Ÿšซ

@Wheezer

Ya voting for Trump again?

I kind of agree with those sentiments by BK69 and I didn't vote for Trump the first time around.

In terms of the popular vote in 2016, Hillary + Trump only comes to around 94%. I was in the other 6% somewhere.

Mushroom ๐Ÿšซ

@PotomacBob

I have read that the 1918 Flu Pandemic, in the U.S., probably started in the Midwest (Kansas?), and was concentrated in a military base, and probably spread across the U.S. by soldiers on trains.

The most common accepted belief is actually like this current one, it started in China.

During WWI, the US was importing a lot of meat and other food products to support the UK, and our own growing military. And the year before it was discovered in the US, the same disease was going through China. Many Pandemic researchers believe it came to the US via pigs from China, then to Kansas City, which was a major meat processing hub for the country. It jumped to humans again, and it was likely a US soldier that took it to Europe.

Another theory is that some of the 96,000 Chinese laborers brought in during the war to work on Allied lines brought it with them.

We know it did not originate in Kansas, there are no conditions there for the introduction of a new virus in the area.

Now as for squirrels, a great many in the US do carry various forms of plague. However, that is an introduced disease, and not native to this continent.

It must be remembered, every serious disease that is fatal to humans has generally been traced back to a rainforest. Either in Africa or Asia. And interestingly enough, fairly few in Central and South America.

There is a very strict set of circumstances that must happen for a virus or bacteria to jump species. It is a very Darwinian chain of events, and that is almost always only found in a rainforest. Other environments are simply so asture that any diseases find it almost impossible to do the things needed for that to happen.

awnlee jawking ๐Ÿšซ

@PotomacBob

I remember scientists postulating that celestial bodies such as comets and meteors might carry viruses that could infect us.

AJ

Replies:   bk69
bk69 ๐Ÿšซ

@awnlee jawking

I remember scientists postulating that celestial bodies such as comets and meteors might carry viruses that could infect us.

Unlikely. A virus is typically closer to a symbiote or a parasite, it's usually evolved to live in a specific host. The probability of something nonterrestrial evolving that would find any specific terrestrial lifeform a fitting host would be, as unfortunate as the term is here, astronomically small.

Spores of some sort would be more dangerous. There's a better chance of anaphylactic shock from encountering some form of extraterrestrial life than dying from some alien virus.

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