Forum: Author Hangout

China's economic position is far more precarious than most people think, and any significant reduction in exports would blow it all apart.

And they buy 80% of Iran's oil exports, which their economy is dependent upon (as well as Iran's). Do you really think they will stop? I doubt the visit had anything to do with Ukraine.

And they buy 80% of Iran's oil exports, which their economy is dependent upon (as well as Iran's). Do you really think they will stop? I doubt the visit had anything to do with Ukraine.

That's just the thing, China has been eying up Artyom and Vladivostok and the Primorye region in general, even going as far as to print world maps with the Chinese names rather than Russian.

If (oh the irony!) China carries out a 'Special, military operation' and annexes the area, then they gain not just fertile farm land, but the oil reserves in the area as well. Which would help relieve their reliance upon the Gulf oil states.

Apparently, China has been moving large amounts of Chinese citizens into all the Russian cities in the area, skewing the demographics. Not unlike what Russia did with Crimea. One has to wonder if its for exactly the same reason. They saw Russia do it and decided that if it worked for Russia, it would work for them (China). This would be a catch-22 for Russia in that they can't complain or claim it to be illegal or against the rule of law, because then it would make their own claim to Crimea also illegal. A bit of a brilliant move in political one up-man-ship by China.

I have a sneaky suspicion, which has been growing, that China has been quietly urging Russia on. Not because China believes Russia can, or is going to succeed in Ukraine, but because it thinks Russia is going to fail, and with failure, a civil war driven/fueled by the Oligarchs is going to follow and China, to 'protect' it's citizens, is going to move it's troops in to ensure the 'safety' of it's citizens and thereby annex a large portion of the area. How large will probably depend on how much they can grab before the UN finally pulls it's thumb out of it's arse and takes notice.

I still think China wants Taiwan (Mostly for the chip plants and the associated knowledge base, partly for historical reasons), but the Primorsky Krai area is going to be a very tempting morsel that would also give them control of the North of the Sea of Japan. Looking too hungrily at Taiwan is going to draw the attention of the USA, but I doubt the USA would be that bothered if China took a large bite out of Russia.

I think the next few weeks or so is going to be interesting.

I don't see China's economic situation as precarious at all.

One thing China is very good at, is lying. And they lie about absolutely everything. For many years, Western firms have taken China at its word, but that has fallen off the proverbial cliff the last few years.

For instance, take all the claims of technological superiority issued by both governmental and educational facilities. I'm sure many here have seen videos of robots that China has claimed to be far superior to human Olympic athletes, and yet you never see independent footage of these robots in action, but you do see grainy footage of the same robots failing to even stand, or footage revealing the 'robots' to be just humans in costume.

Military: China made a big thing about its new sixth gen fighter capability, reality has their ability at just 4'th gen with a digital makeover. The same with their aircraft carriers and subs. Analysts are all too aware of how many Chinese subs fail to surface, and there is growing pictorial and satellite evidence of large warships with cracked or broken keels. With many analysts dubious about China's fleet ability to survive in sea states other than 'calm'. This is partly down to corner-cutting and substandard materials. I'm sure you have all seen footage of Chinese re-bar being hit with a hammer and shattering. Imagine that steel quality in a warship. Apparently, they still haven't repaired their nuclear missiles because the water they used instead of fuel corroded all the internal engine and electrical systems, requiring all the missiles affected to be completely re-built and they don't have the parts to do so.

Construction: I'm sure we are all aware of the term 'Tofu-dreg' when it comes to Chinese buildings and the thousands of clips on you-tube of people picking new buildings apart with their fingernails. That's not including the absolutely massive housing bubble that is being desperately propped up by any means by the Chinese Communist Party. Or the fact that people have spent millions of Yuan on 'investment apartments' that have turned out to be worthless. Partly because there is no demand for the housing, and partly because the buildings themselves are so bad they need to be demolished.

Technology: Like their military, the CCP has made loud claims as to their technological ability. This has proven to often be Western (or Taiwanese) chips with a new 'Chinese made' sticker slapped on top. X-rays and reverse engineering have more than once proved actual Chinese claims of nm ability to be greatly exaggerated. For example, claimed '7nm' chips are often found to be 15nm or even higher. And don't forget China's habit of 'copying' Western tech and just like in your school days, the problem of copying the work of the child sat next to you, is that you don't actually 'learn' why the answer is what it is, and this stops you being able to make the correct answer for similar problems without that child being sat next to you.

Production: Yes, China is often called the factory of the world. If you don't mind the produce being shit. You know the drill (quite literally) drill-bits that burn out almost immediately, or just snap. new cars arriving at the showroom already rusting. Clothing that you can wear once, but either changes colour in the first wash, or just plain disintegrates after that first wash.

Banking: Holy shit, their banking is a mess. The percentage differs where you look, but some analysts claim that up to 80% of the gold and silver in circulation in China is fake. Again, the CCP is desperately trying to cover that up, but they aren't making any serious moves to sort it. We are not talking small mum and dad investors here, we are talking major banks with vaults full of garbage. The only value they have, is on paper, there is no solid bullion to back up that paper. The Yuan is a fiat currency with little to no public trust behind it.

History: How, you wonder, can the Chinese fuck even that up. Turns out, quite easily. It started coming to light, a few years ago, that people in charge of museums and the like, were quietly selling the artifacts on the black market and replacing the originals with cheap fakes. In some cases, really cheap fakes. Of course, that wasn't the reason, it was because "They were protecting the priceless artefacts from the public and the effects of sunlight/smog/moisture (etc etc.)" So of course, all these valuable artefacts are kept in secure storage below, only accessible by the museum management. And no, you can't do an audit. When these 'secure storages' started to be raided by the police, they were found to contain even more fake objects, or were just, simply, empty.

The Chinese economy is a house of cards the height of the Burj Khalifa and there is a fucking large storm heading its way.

The Chinese economy is a house of cards the height of the Burj Khalifa and there is a fucking large storm heading its way.

Exactly right. 100% on target and 100% solid analysis.

Don't you think it's possible… perhaps even plausible… that like many places in the world there are parts of their economy that and their political system that are shite and parts that are enviable?

The entire thing is built on a house of cards. If Europe enacts trade restrictions, China is in deep, deep sh-t. Their domestic economy cannot absorb even a tiny portion of their export production.

The entire economy goes 'boom' if the US and Europe limit imports of Chinese goods/materials. Granted, they can't be cut off in one fell swoop, but China's negotiating position is much weaker than they (or the mainstream) imagine.

Would the world suffer in the short term? Absolutely. In the long term, the Americas are in fantastic shape if they can get their thumbs out. Europe, not so much.

If Europe enacts trade restrictions, China is in deep, deep sh-t.

The EU has already stated that there is nothing that China could do that would be so heinous as to cause it to break off trading.

Even if China carries out its threat to take Taiwan by force, the prospect of getting 27 countries to agree unanimously on anything is pretty minimal.

AJ

The EU has already stated that there is nothing that China could do that would be so heinous as to cause it to break off trading.

Even if China carries out its threat to take Taiwan by force, the prospect of getting 27 countries to agree unanimously on anything is pretty minimal.

I didn't say 'break off trading', I said enact trade restrictions. Two VERY different things.

The Economist thinks it's inevitable:

A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable

That's not to say they won't do it, just that the benefits cannot outweigh the costs.

I agree. However, I have noticed that World leaders (especially those in certain countries) are not exactly known for making 'rational' decisions.

Suicidal. Three words as to why: Three Gorges Dam.

One well-placed hypersonic missile and China suffers tens of millions of casualties and catastrophic industrial damage.

The one problem with that is the court of public perception. Take out the damn and you kill hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children. No government is going to survive making that decision. Not ever.

China knows this, so I doubt it will be bothered about the possibility of any damn being attacked by any Western government or even Taiwan.

All the Western governments are obsessed about how they look to their own populace, which is why they have been so reluctant to even countenance any military response to what's been going on in Ukraine.

I think the one thing holding China back from Taiwan, is that those in power have a very good understanding of the corruption going on in their own party. And whilst they may not know as to the extent of that corruption, the purges in the rocket force and the subsequent discovery that all their rockets were fueled with water rather than rocket fuel, has no doubt raised internal concerns as to the state of the rest of their equipment.

There are a lot of similarities between Russia and China, in that money supposedly earmarked for equipment and training has been funneled.... elsewhere... Yes, China and Russia both have (Well, had in the case of Russia) large standing armies. But it's been turning out that for both of them, they are not well equipped and not well trained. Yes they can march prettily, but marching in step well, is no gauge as to how well those troops will react to effective enemy fire. And of course, China is mainly a conscript army, so it's morale is going to be paper strong. Also, apparently, the majority of it's army can't swim. Which is not a good thing if you plan to attack across water...

The one problem with that is the court of public perception. Take out the damn and you kill hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children. No government is going to survive making that decision. Not ever.

When one's back is against the wall and losing means certain death, nothing is off the table.

China is mainly a conscript army, so it's morale is going to be paper strong. Also, apparently, the majority of it's army can't swim. Which is not a good thing if you plan to attack across water...

If they're attacking the UK, we'll supply them with flotation aids and water taxis to the beaches.

AJ

Three Gorges itself supplies about 0.9% of Chinese electricity today.

My comment had nothing to do with hydro, nothing at all.

I even said so:

One well-placed hypersonic missile and China suffers tens of millions of casualties and catastrophic industrial damage.

So I'm not sure what point you think you're scoring by setting up a strawman I never claimed.

It would be a provocation that would likely lead to an overwhelming military response from China.

LOL. A 'provocation' after they've launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? WTF are you talking about?

If I remember correctly several dams were ruptured during WWII. Doing so required relatively precise placement of the bomb.

Conventional explosives with WWII tech. Modern explosives pack a much bigger punch per kilo.

You need explosive power. The only tool in todays arsenals that could make that happen is a nuke.

Simply not true. A hypersonic missile strike in a critical place and water pressure does the rest.

Given what we know about Chinese construction, that might be easier than it seems.

The dam is 115m thick at the base and 40m at the top - half a football field of concrete. Earth and rock dams can fail if you can get a crack going but this is 27 million cubic meters of concrete.

The hypersonic scenario is totally improbable.

You are aware that the dam is already cracking? Also, satellite surveying has also revealed that the dam has moved, and is continuing to move downstream as a result of the pressure behind it. Work is underway to stop that movement, but, this is China, land of TofuDreg...

There is much discussion about this dam amongst Western engineers and the general consensus and discussion is about the 'When' rather than the 'if'.

There is much discussion about this dam amongst Western engineers and the general consensus and discussion is about the 'When' rather than the 'if'.

Exactly.

So many people have been fooled by Chinese (and Western) propaganda about what's going on in China that they have no clue what's truly going on and appear to believe China cannot possibly lose in any scenario.

IMO, The propaganda that is fooling the west is that China is weak.

Anyone who takes a careful look at the economic conditions there, along with the demographics, knows China is extremely weak. Their domestic economy is in complete shambles, and the export props are slowly being kicked out from under them.

As for dam collapses, there have been many over the years, fully documented.

They are far from being the paper tiger that you all are portraying and that dam is unlikely to be seriously damaged by a hypersonic missile strike.

They aren't a paper tiger, but they are FAR weaker than you (and most people) believe. As for taking out the dam, well, see (going back two decades):

Three Gorges Dam: Risk of Collapse
Mountain collapse near China's Three Gorges Dam raises alarm over stability
China: Experts warn 400 million lives are at risk as catastrophic flooding threatens Three Gorges Dam, co. says dam deformation is part of "elastic" design
China's Three Gorges Dam: An Environmental Catastrophe?

I think only Lehrer could come up with "frontally", "Huntley" and "contrapuntally" as rhymes.

For if the bomb that drops on you
Gets your friends and neighbors too,
There'll be nobody left behind to grieve.

That's a blessing. I've always said that if it comes to that, I'd prefer to be under the first bomb that went off.

Lehrer wrote such happy campfire songs!

"And we'll all fry together when we fry,
We'll be french-fried potatoes by and by.
We shall sing no Te Deum
When we see that ICBM,
Yes, we'll all fry together when we fry."

Let WWIII began. Perhaps we can purge the planet of this pestilence called humans.

I heard a couple of buzzy whooshes last night - probably a couple of Russian drones on their way to scout a UK military base or two.

AJ